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Posted by: djellison Jan 13 2005, 03:17 PM

You know the game - pick a square - tell us what it is - and if Huygens lands in your square - you win absolutely NOTHING

The lines coincide roughtly with lines of lat and long ( see the big maps elsewhere for that ) - and so it is the lat and long which will be released in the next few weeks I'm sure - that will pick the winner

Reply with your pick - and dont pick one that's already gone. I'll try and update it with names etc later

Doug

Posted by: djellison Jan 13 2005, 03:20 PM

Posted by: remcook Jan 13 2005, 03:27 PM

M10 - stronger wind than anticipated

Posted by: OWW Jan 13 2005, 03:32 PM

O11 : An unexpected jetstream carries Huygens off to the east and drags it across the surface.

Posted by: TheChemist Jan 13 2005, 03:38 PM

I will go for rather close to target: I-9

Posted by: Sunspot Jan 13 2005, 03:43 PM

..... I, 11

Posted by: Bill Harris Jan 13 2005, 04:10 PM

I'd like to buy a vowel, Pat, and think a positive J-10.

--Bill

Posted by: SFJCody Jan 13 2005, 04:22 PM

H10. Why not?

Posted by: volcanopele Jan 13 2005, 04:23 PM

L10

Posted by: Roby72 Jan 13 2005, 04:35 PM

I 10

Posted by: gpurcell Jan 13 2005, 04:37 PM

M12

Posted by: Baltic Jan 13 2005, 04:38 PM

G10 - I'm absolutely sure.

Tom

Posted by: akuo Jan 13 2005, 04:54 PM

J9

Posted by: lyford Jan 13 2005, 05:15 PM

G9

You sunk my Huygens Probe!

Posted by: imran Jan 13 2005, 05:20 PM

Looks like I'll have to settle for J-11

Posted by: Stu Jan 13 2005, 05:25 PM

H9 I think...

Posted by: Fred Jan 13 2005, 06:37 PM

I'll go with K 11

Posted by: Decepticon Jan 13 2005, 09:58 PM

LL 9

Posted by: David Jan 13 2005, 10:31 PM

N-10. Huygens very slowly sinks into mushy, slushy, squushy black ooze.

Posted by: azstrummer Jan 13 2005, 11:41 PM

by default - L11.

Posted by: slinted Jan 13 2005, 11:57 PM

F 10, come on thicker than anticipated atmosphere! lands on bright area, fluffy organics.

Posted by: alan Jan 14 2005, 12:21 AM

L12

Posted by: DavidVicari Jan 14 2005, 12:49 AM

M-9

Posted by: centsworth_II Jan 14 2005, 03:42 AM

O-8 .... A good spot.

Posted by: tedstryk Jan 14 2005, 03:57 AM

H11....best that is left

Posted by: ilbasso Jan 14 2005, 04:06 AM

M11 - right between the skyscrapers and the harbor

Posted by: CosmicRocker Jan 14 2005, 07:38 AM

Damn. All the good real estate has been purchased. I'll become an outlying speculator and go for O1.

Posted by: djellison Jan 14 2005, 09:41 AM

Right - EDL starts in about 25 minutes if you consider the one way light time. So - no more bets

Doug

Posted by: rpfeynman Jan 14 2005, 10:22 AM

Hello - I say K4 - in case something is going wrong any place is possible :-)

Posted by: centsworth_II Jan 14 2005, 11:48 AM

Isn't the landing ellipse actually several hunderd km long? Unless they've been able to reduce it's size with updated Huygens trajectory data, that would mean that our betting field represents only 1/5 to 1/10 of the ellipse.

Posted by: djellison Jan 14 2005, 12:02 PM

the scale on that thing is actually fairly huge. It's something like 50km per square. - the purple '50km' shape is about 300km across

Doug

Posted by: Sunspot Jan 14 2005, 12:53 PM

Anyone catch much of what was said at the press briefing just now? The sound on my stream was terrible, combined with the heavy accents, I didn't catch much lol

Posted by: tedstryk Jan 14 2005, 01:04 PM

These two entries pretty much sum it up (l listened, and there really isn't much more to it than this) They still did not know anything about whether or not it had survived landing (in fact, it might have still been decending at the time):

8:00 a.m. EST: The first Huygens news briefing post-Titan descent has concluded.

ESA mission managers said Huygens' carrier signal, the only signal researchers expected to detect from Earth, has also been detected by the Parkes radio telescope in Australia. The signal has been blaring strong for two hours now, researchers said.

Mission manager Jean-Pierre Lebreton said that four optical telescopes around the world were trained on Titan during Huygens' descent. One telescope was unable to observe the event due to poor weather, while the other three failed to detect any sign of a reentry fireball, he added.

The first real telemetry from Huygens should reach Earth around 10:21 a.m. EST (1521 GMT), though it will be 4:21 p.m. local time at ESOC in Darmstadt, Germany. The first science data is anticipated to arrive by 11:15 a.m. EST (1615 GMT), mission controllers said.

7:45 a.m. EST: At least one instrument aboard Huygens is taking data. A Doppler instrument designed to track wind patterns on Titan is apparently working, Jean-Pierre Lebreton, Huygens mission manager, said during the press conference.

Posted by: Sunspot Jan 14 2005, 01:24 PM

Cool.....thanks. Although we still have to wait for the first data transmission from Cassini to tell how successful the mission has been.

Posted by: tedstryk Jan 14 2005, 01:41 PM

8:35 a.m. EST: Huygens mission controllers report that the probe landed somewhere between 1:45 p.m. and 1:46 p.m. local time in Darmstadt, Germany (CET) , that's somewhere between 7:45 a.m. and 7:46 a.m. EST.

The probe is apparently on Titan's surface and still going strong, mission managers said.

Posted by: Sunspot Jan 14 2005, 01:47 PM

Was that a confirmation of landing based on changes in the probes radio signal?

Posted by: tedstryk Jan 14 2005, 02:17 PM

I am assuming so. At any rate, as of 90 minutes after landing, it was still transmitting. I wonder how long it will go (Cassini will lose the signal soon as Huygens drops below the horizon as viewed by Cassini, but the earthbased antennas will continue to track it should it still be transmitting.

Posted by: YesRushGen Jan 14 2005, 02:25 PM

My original prediction in the other thread was that it would still be transmitting after Cassini sets over the horizon.

Posted by: tedstryk Jan 14 2005, 02:29 PM

Well, if the earthbased tracking can keep the signal, the question would then be how long will it last! I imagine scientifically it would be very limited at that point, since little to no telemetry could be obtained, but at the very least doppler tracking would be interesting as it slowly rotates with Titan.

Posted by: tedstryk Jan 14 2005, 02:30 PM

Press conference starting now!

Posted by: tedstryk Jan 14 2005, 02:48 PM

The Cassini relay phase should be over now, and it should be in the process of swinging back around to relay the data to earth. No word on if Huygens is still being tracked here on Earth.

Posted by: tedstryk Jan 14 2005, 02:58 PM

Here is the press statement issued by the European Space Agency:

"The Robert C. Byrd Green Bank Telescope (GBT) in West Virginia, USA, a part of the global network of radio telescopes involved in tracking the Huygens Titan probe, has detected the probe's 'carrier' (tone) signal.

"The detection occurred between 11:20 and 11:25 CET (5:20-5:25 a.m. EST), shortly after the probe began its parachute descent through Titan's atmosphere. The extremely feeble signal was first picked up by the Radio Science Receiver supplied by the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. This signal is an important indication that the Huygens probe is 'alive'. However, it does not contain yet any substance; the latter is expected to come a few hours later via the Cassini spacecraft.

"What the Green Bank radio telescope has detected is only a Œcarrier¹ signal. It indicates that the back cover of Huygens must have been ejected, the main parachute must have been deployed and that the probe has begun to transmit, in other words, the probe is Œalive¹. This, however, still does not mean that any data have been acquired, nor that they have been received by Cassini. The carrier signal is sent continuously throughout the descent and as such does not contain any scientific data. It is similar to the tone signal heard in a telephone handset once the latter is picked up.

"Only after having received the data packets at ESOC will it be possible to say with certainty whether data were properly acquired. The first data set from Cassini will reach ESOC in the afternoon. Additional downlinks will follow throughout the evening and night for redundancy.

"Further analysis of the signals will be conducted using other three independent data acquisition systems at the Green Bank Telescope. In addition to the GBT, sixteen other radio telescopes in Australia, China, Japan and the USA are involved in tracking the Huygens probe.

"The ultimate goal of the tracking experiment is to reconstruct the probe's descent trajectory with an unprecedented accuracy of the order of one kilometre. The measurements will be conducted using Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and Doppler tracking techniques. This would enable studies of the dynamics of Titan's atmosphere, which is considered to be a 'frozen' copy of that of the early Earth.

"The VLBI component of the tracking experiment is coordinated by the Joint Institute for VLBI in Europe (JIVE) and ESA; the Doppler measurements are conducted by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory."

Posted by: tedstryk Jan 14 2005, 03:02 PM

10:01 EST - Huygens still transmitting!!!!!

Posted by: imran Jan 14 2005, 03:14 PM

Wow. I suspect this means it landed on a solid surface.

Posted by: tedstryk Jan 14 2005, 03:15 PM

10:15 a.m. EST: Huygens is still pounding out a signal to the surprise of ESA engineers, but any science data it is currently transmitting is falling on deaf ears.

The Cassini orbiter, Huygens' only connection to Earth, has turned away from the probe and is preparing to relay the probe's data home, mission controllers said.

“The probe has been living for more than five hours,” said Huygens mission manager Jean-Pierre Lebreton. “But we knew at a certain time Cassini would have to stop recording.”



Lebreton said the Huygens science team is eager to see any science data, but can wait. After all, they've waited more than seven years -Cassini-Huygens launched in 1997 - just to reach this point in the mission, he added.

Posted by: tedstryk Jan 14 2005, 03:26 PM

Cassini is back in contact!!!!

Posted by: tedstryk Jan 14 2005, 04:20 PM

11:12 a.m. EST: There is some discussion, from talk broadcast from ESOC's main control room, that it may be another seven minutes for the first Huygens data.


I hope this isn't indicative of a problem!

Posted by: tedstryk Jan 14 2005, 04:25 PM

11:19 a.m. EST: Shouts and applause erupted from Huygens mission control, and presumably some data from the probe has apparently arrived.

"We have it? We have it!," said one mission team member before the shouts.


Yes!!!

Posted by: centsworth_II Jan 14 2005, 06:05 PM

Oops! I forgot the measures were of huygens' altitude, not horizontal.

Posted by: centsworth_II Jan 14 2005, 06:13 PM

So, I may have actually chosen a site (O-8)outside of the ellipse ! Anyway, the way I see it, I now own 250 square km of Titan real estate. When do I get the deed?

Posted by: CosmicRocker Jan 14 2005, 07:34 PM

I actually voted for O-1, but I won't ask you to change the map unless Huygens landed near there.

Posted by: volcanopele Jan 15 2005, 01:41 AM

based on our current determination, we landed in dark material in H11, I11, H10, or I10.

Posted by: volcanopele Jan 16 2005, 11:16 PM

I am ready to make an announcement of the landing site. comparing a mosaic currently in progress and our ISS images, the landing site is in K10 or L10, meaning either myself or djellison is the winner.

Posted by: lyford Jan 17 2005, 12:35 AM

I demand a recount!

Oh... wait - nevermind.

Posted by: SFJCody Jan 17 2005, 12:56 AM

I'll go one step further and demand a reflight!

Posted by: tedstryk Jan 17 2005, 01:43 AM

Hmmm.....the person announcing this is one of the potential winners. And up until then my square was a contender. I demand an investigation!

Posted by: volcanopele Jan 17 2005, 06:22 PM

L10 certainly looks like the winner. I will post evidence today

Posted by: volcanopele Jan 17 2005, 06:43 PM

we landed between two roughly parallel east-west trending islands. In my mosaic, you can see the eastern tips of both islands, the northern one being a bit more peninsula like than the other. Given the scale of 60 km in new official DISR mosaic and my map projected images, those two islands are the appropriate size.

Posted by: djellison Jan 17 2005, 07:16 PM

You lucky sod

Cries of 'Fix' from off stage

Doug

Posted by: David Jan 17 2005, 07:44 PM

Naah, the way I figure it, it's more like insider trading.

But there should be a prize. Can't we all chip in to get volcanopele a tin propellor pin or something?

Posted by: djellison Jan 17 2005, 10:22 PM

I was thinking ice cream and lighter fluid

Doug

Posted by: chris Jan 17 2005, 11:53 PM

Cooled to 90 Kelvin, and consumed by the winner in a dim orange light.....

Posted by: lyford Jan 18 2005, 12:51 AM

like creme brulee?

Posted by: TheChemist Jan 18 2005, 09:08 AM

ok, will the winner please say "aaaaaaa"

Posted by: djellison Jan 18 2005, 01:21 PM

Does anyone know a company in the US that will take online mail orders from UK customers delivering to a US address - I think VP needs a prize (No, I dont like C-B EITHER - but that's not the point damnit )

Doug

Posted by: volcanopele Jan 19 2005, 06:25 PM

I'm not cracking any champagne just yet. My landing site determination was based on some assumptions that may not be correct, on being that Huygens was moving in a least a generally easterly direction. However, I've just gotten word from the DISR team that North is up in the mosaic released yesterday.

Posted by: TheChemist Jan 21 2005, 12:02 PM

If I judged correctly the http://www.esa.int/SPECIALS/Cassini-Huygens/SEM48881Y3E_0.html, one of H,I,J-11 is the lucky winner
Am I right ?

Posted by: TheChemist Jan 21 2005, 12:22 PM

From the above ESA site image, landing is approx. at :
Latitude -11
West Longitude 192

Posted by: volcanopele Jan 21 2005, 04:48 PM

Don't get too excited. I'm looking into how they determined that landing site.

EDIT: Looking at higher resolution ISS images of that area, I am definitely going to disagree with them. I am going to email some DISR people and see how they determined that landing site

Posted by: volcanopele Feb 3 2005, 10:47 PM

After a reanalysis, I10 appears to be the winner but it may take awhile for an official position to be announced.

Posted by: Roby72 Feb 3 2005, 11:37 PM

I´m very pleased with this (pre)result - when will we know it precisely, Vulcanopele ?

Roby72

Posted by: volcanopele Feb 4 2005, 12:34 AM

I think we may have to wait for a combination of new results. First, we will need an the position as derived by the Huygens Descent working group and the VLBI. Second, we will have to wait until control maps are developed for Titan (I can only guarantee my maps to within 1 degree thanks to the indistinct limb). third, we may have to wait for higher resolution ISS, RADAR, and VIMS data of the landing site region.

Posted by: Sunspot Feb 4 2005, 02:00 AM

Has the doppler wind experiment team been able to recover all of they data they were expecting to receive from Huygens in the VLBI data?

It must have been devestating to find out your data wasn't transmitted even though the probe itself appeared to be working perfectly

Posted by: cIclops Feb 4 2005, 04:33 AM

It was even more devastating than that. The DWE data was transmitted from Huygens but only on Channel A. However the Channel A receiver on Cassini was not turned on. For some reason, still not made public, the command to turn it on was not sent by the ESA controllers. Fortunately they did send the command to activate the receiver for Channel B otherwise no data at all would have been transferred to Cassini.

Posted by: Decepticon Feb 4 2005, 01:26 PM

* Hears X-Files Theme in the background *

Posted by: TheChemist Feb 5 2005, 02:30 PM

After careful analysis , I concluded that the landing site indicated in http://esamultimedia.esa.int/images/cassini_huygens/huygens_land/press_release_050120/VIMS_HuygensLandingSite_H.jpg occupies
35 % of H-10,
35% of I-10,
15% of H-9 and
15% of I-9.

So I declare myself a 15% winner on the lottery until further elaboration by more capable members of the forum

Posted by: TheChemist Feb 10 2005, 10:06 AM

In this http://www.planetary.org/news/2005/huygens_dwe_results_0209.html pointed out by volcanopele, Dr. Mike Bird commented on the landing site :

Preliminary calculations from the zonal wind profile released today suggest that the landing site "is going to be a good 100 or 150 kilometers [60 to 90 miles] from where we went in," Bird says. "We dropped 150 kilometers, and I have a feeling that we drifted about that same amount in the easterly direction."

The plot thickens

Posted by: OWW Feb 10 2005, 12:29 PM

150 km east? Is that still within our betting grid? I have a feeling that my chances have just increased considerably

Posted by: David Aug 17 2005, 05:45 AM

Reading one of volcanopele's latest blogposts ("Dawn at the Huygens Site") made me wonder: have we finally pinned down where Huygens landed? If so, can we award the winner of the lottery already?

Posted by: The Messenger Aug 21 2005, 03:01 AM

I have a copy of a Micheal Bird Powerpoint presentations (Bonn Jan 25) that contains a "Huygens TARGETTING Error" (slide 15) placing the entry at ~'minus 1400km', followed by further western motion. The final landing site is listed as ~minus 10.2deg latitude, at 169 deg longitude. (Slide 16)

I think this is WAY west of the lottery grid, but I do not know if I am interpreting the slides correctly.

To navigate to what I am looking at (Warning, 13mb):

http://www.mrc.uidaho.edu/~atkinson/Huygens/DWE_Presentations/Bird/

select presentation:

huygens_bonn_25jan05.ppt

The presentation is labeled as "preliminary'. Any insight into it's veracity is most welcome. I would like to know how on Titan Huygens could be 1400km off-target, traveling ~130 km/hr faster than expected, and still manage to pop the main parachute 'within seconds' of the expected time frame.

It is also worth spending some time on slide 25 - see if you can make any sense out of the radar plot, because I cannot. (I hope in the final presentations they standardize on coordinates and time-stamp everything.)

Posted by: David Dec 2 2005, 01:20 AM

Well, now we have a definite landing site position -- 192.3 W, 10.3 S -- but I'm having trouble matching it up to the lottery map, which has a grid but no indications of latitude or longitude! I think it falls in H10, and so SFJCody should be getting the crême brulée -- but I might be mistaken. Anybody for a correction?

[I think I'm the only one who remembers this lottery existed ]

Posted by: BruceMoomaw Dec 2 2005, 02:41 AM

Since they've now decided that that "thin brittle crust" that the penetrometer hit was actually a pebble that it knocked aside, it might be better to replace the creme brulee with Rocky Road ice cream.

Posted by: tfisher Dec 2 2005, 03:37 AM

I agree with H10. Here is my attempt at transferring the pool grid to a higher resolution map of the area with latitude and longitude lines. (Note: my latitude and longitude lines (faint yellow) may be a bit off because I don't have a good enough benchmark -- these are based on the pointing coordinates for a particular narrow angle image, and these pointing coordinates have a certain amount of internal error, up to maybe 20-30 pixels on the scale of this image. But I think if anything, they are off to make the landing be more firmly in the H10 block, not the other direction.)

Posted by: SFJCody Dec 4 2005, 07:04 PM

I agree with Bruce.