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Posted by: vjkane Oct 20 2008, 07:11 PM

I've started a new blog on this topic at http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/

This blog supplements UMSF by allowing on topic discussions that include politics and other topics not appropriate here.

The first entry is up with some additional news on the MSL funding and schedule problems.

Posted by: vjkane Oct 25 2008, 03:14 AM

A summary of proposed post-MSL Mars missions has been posted at http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/

Posted by: vjkane Nov 17 2008, 09:21 PM

New material on down selection of MSL landing sites, selection of the next New Frontiers mission, and probable delay of ESA science mission at http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/

Posted by: vjkane Dec 17 2008, 06:59 AM

I just posted a description of the proposed Io Volcano Observer at http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2008/12/io-missions-part-3-io-volcano-observer.html

Posted by: vjkane Jan 9 2009, 05:48 PM

NASA has released its plans and options for covering the MSL slip. I've posted the details at http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/01/breaking-news-budget-impacts-of-msl.html

Posted by: vjkane Jan 21 2009, 06:57 AM

I just posted a review of two just released planning documents on the two Flagship missions at http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/01/review-flagship-joint-summary-reports.html

Posted by: ngunn Jan 21 2009, 02:20 PM

Thanks for posting those with comments there, and flagging it here. (Thanks likewise to Jason at Gish Bar)

Posted by: Paolo Jan 21 2009, 06:58 PM

see also http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0901/20mslfunding/

Posted by: vjkane Mar 4 2009, 07:23 AM

I just posted a long summary of future Mars roadmap and mission proposals from the MEPAG meeting at my blog http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/03/mepag-meeting-roadmaps-and-proposed.html.

You can see all recent posts at http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/

Posted by: vjkane Jul 11 2009, 05:23 PM

Early reports from current Planetary Science Subcommittee meeting indicate bad news all around. See http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/07/bad-news.html

Posted by: ustrax Jul 22 2009, 09:54 PM

Doug, Phil, Stu...guys...a new era has arrived and I just love the "feeling" of it! Hugs anyone?
http://www.universetoday.com/2009/07/21/feelings-are-back-at-nasa/
I'd better send the man my curriculum...

Posted by: vjkane Jul 23 2009, 01:33 AM

A summary of the newly proposed Venus Flagship mission is available at http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/07/venus-flagship-proposal.html

Posted by: vjkane Jul 26 2009, 12:06 AM

Here's a list of topics posted at Future Planets this week:

ExoMars Replan?
Options for Exploring Venus in Smaller Chunks
Venus Flagship Proposal
More on Mars Chemistry
Thoughts from Bruce Moomaw

Your comments are always welcome.
http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/

Posted by: vjkane Aug 8 2009, 04:22 PM

Several new posts this week at http://futureplanets.blogspot.com :

EJSM Instrument Workshop: http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/07/ejsm-instrument-mission-workshop.html

MEPAG Meeting Part 1 - ESA Plans: http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/08/mepag-meeting-part-1.html

MEPAG Meeting Part 2 - Mid-range Rover: http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/08/mepag-meeting-part-2-mid-range-rover.html

Posted by: vjkane Aug 15 2009, 04:37 PM

Several new posts on at http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/. This week's entries focused on a possible Galilean Satellite Observer that would be an expansion of the proposed Ganymede Observer. The Galilean Satellite Observer would be a fallback if budgets don't allow for the Jupiter Europa Orbiter.

http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/08/galilean-satellite-observer.html

http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/08/basis-for-galilean-satellite-observer.html

http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/08/first-response-to-galilean-satellite.html

http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/08/second-response-to-galilean-satellite.html

Comments are always welcome.

Posted by: vjkane Sep 6 2009, 04:15 PM

Here are some recent posts at my blog, http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/, that may be of interest to this group:

http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/09/scary-messages.html

http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/08/titan-thought-experiment.html

http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/09/titan-mare-explorer-time.html

http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/09/titan-mare-explorer-abstract.html

http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/08/white-paper-titan-geophysical-network.html

http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/08/white-paper-titan-exploration-by.html

http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/08/white-paper-technology-development-for.html

http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/08/white-paper-argo-mission-to-neptune.html

Posted by: vjkane Sep 13 2009, 03:40 PM

This week's posts at http://futureplanets.blogspot.com

http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/09/thoughts-on-scary-messages.html

http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/09/3b-flagship-mission-to-same-world.html

http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/09/thoughts-on-titan-mare-explorer.html

Posted by: antipode Sep 14 2009, 10:37 PM

Thank you for this great blog - it's become a regular pit stop.

P

Posted by: maschnitz Sep 15 2009, 12:47 AM

Subscribed - very nice work.

Posted by: ngunn Sep 15 2009, 10:07 PM

A refreshingly optimistic tone in ths report. Maybe its just a matter of making an inspiring case.
http://www.planetary.org/about/press/releases/2009/0915_Planetary_Society_Urges_Support_for_the.html

Posted by: ngunn Oct 28 2009, 02:39 PM

I found this article interesting. If the topic is too 'blue sky' or whatever please delete.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/10/091027195507.htm

Posted by: vjkane Oct 28 2009, 05:08 PM

There's been concerned raised about the decision not to start up production of plutonium-238 in the FY10 budget. (Couldn't find the posts.) I've written an analysis at my blog: http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2009/10/plutonium-balance.html

Posted by: vjkane Dec 30 2009, 02:50 AM

Next candidates for New Frontiers missions and a new round of study missions for the Decadal Survey announced. Details at http://futureplanets.blogspot.com

Posted by: Paolo Dec 30 2009, 09:55 AM

See also http://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/new_frontiers_2009.html
I like all three, but if I must choose one I would say SAGE

Posted by: nprev Dec 30 2009, 09:59 AM

Mmm...Yeah, I'm with you there, Paolo. There's really just too much that we don't yet understand about Venus, and it's high time that planet got some recent ground truth with modern instrumentation.

Posted by: Enceladus75 Dec 30 2009, 07:00 PM

A new Venus lander mission is what's really needed of the three proposals.

And with the Magellan data we should be able to pick out interesting sites, like a volcano or tesserae area. The only concern I would have would be that a mission like this wouldn't really be able to stay with the budget parameters set out in the programme. I really would love to see a new Venus lander before long.

Posted by: vjkane Dec 30 2009, 10:16 PM

Quote removed - mod

Just as important, the Venus Express VIRTIS instrument has found areas that appear to be fresh lava flows, and the SAGE-VISE White Paper indicated that one of these flows would be the target.

Posted by: Julius Dec 31 2009, 01:13 PM

I'm all for the Venus mission..its about time we get proper views of the venusian surface!

Posted by: vjkane Feb 1 2010, 08:46 PM

First look at the proposed NASA planetary budget for next year is posted at my http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2010/02/good-budget-news.html blog.

Posted by: ngunn Feb 1 2010, 09:36 PM

Thanks. I've been scouring the media for that information but couldn't get past the big headlines. I knew you'd come up trumps, but I didn't know the budget would.

Posted by: elakdawalla Feb 1 2010, 09:44 PM

Remember that discussion of this budget is not permitted here -- it is however welcome on Van's blog, which, as he said at the top of this thread, establishes a place where UMSFers can discuss this topic, which is clearly of interest to many of you but off-limits here.

Posted by: ngunn Feb 1 2010, 10:17 PM

Right, sorry.

Of course The Planetary Society will also be a great place to follow this news. I'm all ears.

EDIT: And there it is: http://www.planetary.org/blog/article/00002328/

Posted by: vjkane Feb 17 2010, 04:04 AM

I've posted descriptions of an Enceladus sample return mission and a Titan airplane mission at my blog http://futureplanets.blogspot.com

Posted by: vjkane Feb 23 2010, 03:26 PM

NASA has just released its detailed FY 2011 budget proposal. I have an analysis of the planetary exploration budget at http://futureplanets.blogspot.com.

For a look at the bigger NASA budget, check out http://www.spacepolitics.com/2010/02/23/skimming-over-the-detailed-budget/.

Please remember that discussions of politics and budgets are not allowed on this forum.

Posted by: Paolo Nov 8 2010, 06:21 PM

the mission and technology studies selected for the second planetary exploration decadal survey are now available online
http://sites.nationalacademies.org/SSB/SSB_059331
pick your favorite concept. too bad only a handful will fly...

Posted by: charborob Nov 8 2010, 07:39 PM

Lots of interesting ideas in there. I particularly like the "Saturn Ring Observer Concept": a spacecraft hovering about 3km above the ring plane. Close enough to resolve the ring particles.

Posted by: AndyG Nov 8 2010, 08:34 PM

I dunno about anyone else, but I'm going through those pdfs like a kid in a particularly well-stocked sweetshop.

Andy

Posted by: machi Nov 8 2010, 08:50 PM

"like a kid in a particularly well-stocked sweetshop."

Isn't here emoticon for drooling?

Thanks Paolo!

Posted by: stevesliva Nov 8 2010, 10:27 PM

Some rather obscure proposals in there! It would seem to me that the Chiron Orbiter and Saturn Atmospheric Probe could be combined (yeah, not on the same budget), although the reference to Jupiter or(?) Saturn flyby in the Chiron proposal might simply mean Jupiter is much preferred. That would actually be pretty neat... Saturn flyby, Saturn Probe, and Chiron Orbiter. Ahh, we can dream.

Posted by: DFinfrock Nov 9 2010, 12:46 AM

Emily,

Isn't that your handiwork on the photo on page 1 of the Scientific Objectives in the Enceladus Orbiter mission? It sure looks familiar. That photo was my computer wallpaper for many months.

David

Posted by: vjkane Nov 9 2010, 03:46 AM

As you look through the proposals, some are clearly much more detailed than others, which are still very conceptual. The Survey is much more likely to go for the well developed ideas.

Posted by: nprev Nov 9 2010, 03:49 AM

Strange. No matter how much of this candy I eat, I only get hungrier!

There are some remarkable concepts here; VERY hard to pic favs. Still reading...

Posted by: eoincampbell Nov 9 2010, 05:18 AM

That was one heck of a ride!
Great link in so many ways, thanks.

Posted by: jasedm Nov 9 2010, 11:39 AM

Thanks for the link Paolo - very absorbing read.

It's noticeable how we're still very dependant on sunlight for powering our exploration of the solar system - many of the outer planet mission proposals rely on the uncertain availability of Plutonium for power, with it's attendant planetary protection issues, and cost considerations.
Jupiter's radiation environment also presents major challenges to any of orbital missions outlined there.

My favourites of those I've looked at would be:

Titan/Saturn System mission (ballooning and boating on Kraken Mare anyone?)
Io observer
Flagship Neptune orbiter (I'd be in my late sixties at orbit insertion if this was to go ahead.....)

Fascinating proposals though.

Jase

Posted by: nprev Nov 9 2010, 04:00 PM

I'm very partial to the Neptune Orbiter as well. We don't know nearly enough about that system, and Triton seems to basically be a captured large KBO....lotta bang for the buck to be had there.

Posted by: vjkane Nov 9 2010, 06:28 PM

Check out my blog, http://futureplanets.blogspot.com for a table comparing the concepts for cost and mission schedules.

Posted by: ngunn Dec 3 2010, 11:08 PM

I've often wondered why the electronics on spacecraft have to be pampered in an earthlike environment. It's a topic very far from my limited knowlege but one that interests me a lot. This article seems to herald good things for the future. (I say: Bring on the Venus-hardy variety and let's have long-lived surface rovers.)

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Silicon_Germanium_For_Space_Electronics_Applications_999.html

Posted by: hendric Dec 7 2010, 09:52 PM

Well, for your average iPad, a fatal ESD event isn't that big a deal. Even non-fatal events can do fun things like shorten lifespan or increase current consumption. For a multi billion dollar spacecraft, those would be catastrophic. And don't forget, "pampered" for spacecraft still means going through a shake table and a real launch!

Posted by: ngunn Dec 7 2010, 11:22 PM

When I used the word 'pampered' there I was really thinking about operating temperature and the fact that the bulk of our expertise in electronics has been developed to cope with 'room temperature' conditions. For a spacecraft working elsewhere in the solar system having to have the electronics at a comfortable human temperature can be a big handicap so it would be good if that constraint could be overcome. I would like to see Titan rovers that don't have to be heated and Venus rovers that don't have to be cooled. I appreciate that there are other severe demands on space electronics besides extreme temperatures.

Posted by: ZLD Dec 8 2010, 12:41 AM

They most definitely take into account the operating temperatures for spacecraft. If this were not the case, the Voyager probes would have long since been decommissioned and lost forever. A more recent example is the James Webb Space Telescope. http://www.nasa.gov/topics/universe/features/mirror_chill.html an article talking a little about how they condition spacecrafts for use in extreme temperatures. They have facilities for testing in extremely hot zones, cold zones, very high pressure, vacuums, radiation intensive and many other obstacles that spacecraft face while in space. They most definitely do not build them to a specification that would only be acceptable for Earth use because you would get exactly what you would expect: space trash.

This is where the forefront of NASA's leading edge comes in. They have invented so many absolutely http://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/StructuresMaterials/research.html that are so far advanced that stuff invented in the 60s and 70s is still only starting to hit the commercial market. Expect to see a Venus rover sometime in the next decade and maybe a Titan rover will come within the next 20 years. The reason that it takes so long is because no one has ever done anything like it and everything has to be invented from scratch.

It is amazing how far we have gone when you realize that, just 54 years ago, a rocket hadn't even left this planet yet. The future holds a lot of potential.

Posted by: djellison Dec 8 2010, 12:53 AM

I'm afraid your Venus rover in a decade and titan rover in 20 years are both far too optimistic. For either of those to be true - we would be seeing them in this decedal survey manifest of proposals - and we don't. moreover, the technical readiness for either simply isn't there. I'm afraid you're probably going to have to double those figures.

Posted by: stevesliva Dec 8 2010, 02:22 AM

Incidentally the IBM SiGe process that Georgia Tech characterized at extreme temperatures in the article above was developed to make high performance transceiver chips. Very popular with GPS, cell phones, etc. It's not a NASA spin-off, it's a consumer spin-off. The process is more expensive than the standard processes used to make microprocessors and most consumer chips. A typical SiGe chip is very small and has just the RF stuff on it, so it's combined on a circuit board with all the other more vanilla process chips. They make only the small chunk of circuitry they need for high frequency RF with SiGe.

What seems to have been done is what NASA/the government are good at... doing research in the niches that private industry simply can't be bothered with. Why didn't they know this rather mature process had good low temperature performance? No one had yet paid to figure it out. A few million bucks later, it turns out things are still working pretty good at -180C.

The automotive industry just might push the standard temperature range higher. I've heard of them wanting chips working at pretty damn high temperatures since they're everywhere in cars now. But the market for chips that work below -55C is absolutely minimal. It's neat that SiGe appears to be pretty reliable to very low temps. Now they just have to work on the circuit boards.

Posted by: ZLD Dec 8 2010, 02:57 AM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus_rover#Proposals

It's my understanding that most of this proposal is possible now, with funding. Obviously some serious testing would still need to be done but accepting the plan is all that is needed to move forward.

Just in case you don't have access to the draft, I've included it below.
 Venus_surface_power_and_cooling_systems.pdf ( 650.64K ) : 19528

Posted by: djellison Dec 8 2010, 07:43 AM

These are proposals, ideas, a wish list.

There are no Venus rovers currently planned or funded.

A Venus 'in situ' explorer is proposed as one of three finalists for the New Frontiers program - but it is not a rover.

Posted by: hendric Dec 8 2010, 02:47 PM

I'm hoping the research here pans out

http://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/SiC/

It would be great for a Venus rover, or even a Venus lander. Powering it and connecting to it would be interesting. Hell, maybe we'll have to launch a Venus lander/rover in a giant OVEN to keep it warm enough to operate!

But I agree... 10 years? I'd be surprised if we see anything other than paper rovers and landers for the next 25.

Posted by: machi Dec 8 2010, 05:02 PM

Price of Venus mobile explorer is estimated around 10 billion dollars. This is simply too much for any space agency.
Look here: http://sites.nationalacademies.org/SSB/SSB_059331
Another problem is shortcoming of plutonium.

Posted by: Hungry4info Dec 8 2010, 05:25 PM

What about Venera D? I was under the impression it had moved past the concept stage.

Posted by: machi Dec 8 2010, 06:19 PM

Venera D isn't surface mobile explorer. Project Venera D consist of unmobile lander, orbiter, high altitude balloon(s) and maybe small dropping probes.

Posted by: Hungry4info Dec 8 2010, 07:04 PM

Ah, understood. For some reason I was thinking it had an inflatable balloon to hop with.
Nevermind. Thanks.

Posted by: ZLD Dec 8 2010, 07:34 PM

Interesting, I hadn't yet heard about this proposal.

A slight correction, though it doesn't change the necessary cost feasibility:



So ~$2bn instead but the price is still too high for a mission. They also note in the in the trade tree that wheels, as would be on a Venus rover, introduces too many complexities and a helium balloon-like transfer is instead preferred. I'm a little puzzled by that with as much research as has gone into the four Mars rovers but I'm sure there is a more detailed reason. Regardless, I stand corrected, it likely isn't to happen in the next decade.

A mission I'm quite interested in is a flying drone observer sent to Mars. I can't find the name of the proposal but I was puzzled at the time that they claimed it would be powered by batteries and only last a couple of hours. Meanwhile the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_Impulse team were releasing news about their first trip around the globe with a successful trip through a full night. I'm very hopeful to see these two technologies joined at some point. What better way to take a lot of data quickly over a vast area than from an aerial vehicle. Among other things, it would allow study of Olympus Mons and Valles Marineris, two very interesting geologic locations that are unlikely to be explored by rovers.

Edit: http://marsairplane.larc.nasa.gov/platform.html

Posted by: hendric Dec 8 2010, 08:09 PM

Here's a crazy idea for a power source. How about running a Stirling engine between the Venus atmosphere and a block of frozen water? As the water warms, melts, and evaporates, it could provide a heat sink. As the steam heats up, the engine would be less efficient, but the steam itself could power a piston or rotate the generator once its pressure is significantly higher than the exterior; steam at Venus temps should easily be 200+ bars (if allowed past planetary protection).

Basic b-o-t-e calculations (per kg of H2O)
Starting at -200 C to 0 C, ~1.5 kJ/kg = 300 kJ
Latent heat of melting = 334 kJ
0 to 100 C, ~4.2 kJ/kg = 420 kJ
Latent heat of vaporization = 2260 kJ
100C to 460C, ~6.4 kJ/kg = 2350

Total heat required to raise from -200C to +460C = 5.66 MJ.

A kg of gasoline, as a comparison, has about 44 MJ/kg. Now granted, you probably wouldn't get very high efficiency, and the whole time your cold area is going to get heat leaking in, but it is an interesting thought exercise.

Posted by: djellison Dec 8 2010, 08:17 PM

Think about the surface conditions on Mars. Chilly, dry, but with electrical heaters 'normal' terrestrial electronics and electro-mechanics work ok

That simply isn't true on Venus. I doubt anything of the mobility system of MER would work on Venus. It's just too different.



Batteries for the electronics, a small rocket engine for the



Aeronautics on Mars and Earth are very different. Solar Impulse used solar power ( lots of power at Earth ) and a very very efficient airframe

On Mars - the solar power is about half that on Earth ( so already, you're fighting a losing battle ). PLUS - you need an airframe as light and efficient as Solar Impulse just to get off the ground at all, because the air density is so very thin on Mars you have to have an astonishingly efficient airframe travelling at high speed just to generate enough lift to get off the ground.

Solar powered airplanes on Mars are an engineering challenge far far over and above Solar Impuls, and might not even be possible with anything on the engineers shopping list of today.



How about orbiters? You can take a lot of data, quickly, again and again, mapping those sites That's what killed Ares really, CRISM on MRO producing 6m/pixel hyperspectril Vis-IR mapping spectrometer data, HiRISE producing 25cm/pixel imagery etc etc.

Posted by: hendric Dec 8 2010, 08:27 PM

I remember pre-MRO orbit insertion, there was some talk that 25cm wouldn't be achievable due to atmospheric effects. Now that has been put to rest, are there any thoughts on how high resolution we could get from an orbiter? 5 cm or maybe even less? Would be crazy to read the sundials on the MERs from space!

Posted by: ZLD Dec 8 2010, 08:41 PM

Well in that case, send up boosters to attach to the old KH-11s and send them all to Mars. Should expand the imaging capabilities a bit.

Posted by: djellison Dec 8 2010, 09:48 PM

Umm - no. Even if the KH11's still existed ( which they don't - I think they've all reentered ) - they have nothing for which a very significant propulsive upper stage (>10tons to Mars...that's one hell of an ask for any existing booster) could dock on to, they're not designed for the thermal environment for a cruise to Mars, they don't have solar arrays qualified for operation at Mars, and they're not equipped with communications equipment to talk to Earth from Mars either.

Posted by: hendric Dec 8 2010, 10:21 PM

Obviously, ZLD was joking slightly. But the question does remain, would larger-than-MRO-HiRISE telescopes be worthwhile in Mars orbits, or would they lose out due to atmospheric distortion? It looks like the equation for a diffraction limited telescope is pretty linear at this size, with doubling the resolution requiring double the mirror diameter. So getting 5cm resolution would require an ~ 3m telescope. Getting that into Mars orbit is left as an exercise for the reader. But a 1m or 1.5m telescope could be reasonably sent to Mars, giving 8cm resolution.

Posted by: ngunn Dec 8 2010, 10:57 PM

A linked array of small telescopes could push the limit down. Add a laser and 'adaptive optics' applied to the array and you take care of the slight atmosphere. I doubt if there is a theoretical limit to resolution of the martian suface that can be obtained from orbit.

Posted by: djellison Dec 8 2010, 11:20 PM

There's a limit on the data rate that can be sent back to Earth, and a limit to the value of increased resolution scientifically.

Posted by: machi Dec 8 2010, 11:48 PM

That's price of Mobile Venus Explorer, which isn't in fact as much mobile (two landings, one flight and that's all).

$7B - 10+B estimate is from http://vfm.jpl.nasa.gov/files/Venus+Flagship+Mission+Study+090501-compressed.pdf (Tab.A.1, Fig.A.3, Fig.A.5).

"A linked array of small telescopes could push the limit down."

Proposed imaging instrument for "extinct" mammoth JIMO: http://www.optics.rochester.edu/workgroups/fienup/PUBLICATIONS/Pitman_SPIE5570_2004MIDAS.pdf

Posted by: stevesliva Dec 9 2010, 12:25 AM

Wow! Actually says there can be up to 6 science instruments attached, according to the document. So it's sort of the whole imaging suite. Which is good, because it's 550 lbs.

Posted by: vjkane Jan 18 2011, 12:03 AM

Vote for your favorite Decadal Survey missions in a poll at my http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2011/01/do-your-own-decadal-survey.html. Early votes (before I could post the announcement) had some surprises for me. Should be fun.

In two months, we can compare our choices with those made by the voters that really counted.

Posted by: nprev Jan 18 2011, 12:56 AM

Me as well; I actually voted for the third most-popular mission purely because I think that Uranus & Neptune have not received nearly enough attention. (Won't debate the scientific merits of that viewpoint, but obviously there is always knowledge to be gained regardless of the target.)

Posted by: stevesliva Jan 18 2011, 01:06 AM

I think it's time for another flagship to Jupiter's moons, but that then dictates the smaller missions don't go there. I do think one class or another should visit a planet beyond Saturn as well.

Posted by: vjkane Feb 11 2011, 05:53 PM

post removed

Posted by: ynyralmaen Feb 25 2011, 09:47 PM

I can't see that anyone else has reported this: ESA have today http://sci.esa.int/science-e/www/object/index.cfm?fobjectid=48467 the four shortlisted mission candidates for the M3 medium-class mission for launch around 2022.

Marco Polo, which narrowly lost out in the competition for consideration for an earlier M1 or M2 mission slot, is through again. Also of planetary science interest is exoplanet-characterization mission EChO. It doesn't look like ESA are going to provide a full list of the 47 submitted proposals, but I understand that there were many planetary proposals submitted.

Posted by: Paolo May 5 2011, 08:23 PM

NASA just announced the three candidates for the next Discovery mission:
- A Mars Geophysical Monitoring Station
- the Titan Mare Explorer (yes!!!!!)
- the Comet Hopper
see http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nasa-selects-investigations-for-future-key-planetary-mission-121343498.html

Posted by: Paolo May 6 2011, 05:21 AM

more info on GEMS http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMDI43A1938B
and an image of the Phoenix-based lander http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mars/multimedia/pia13990.html

Posted by: Paolo May 7 2011, 04:50 PM

and an interesting presentation on the "Comet Hopper"
ftp://ftp.astro.umd.edu/pub/jess/CHopper_GSFC_Jun11_09_JMS_final.ppt
turns out GEMS is the only solar-powered proposal of the three candidates

Posted by: Paolo May 25 2011, 05:17 PM

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2011/may/HQ_M11-103_New_Planetary_Missions.html
NF3 will be announced in a few hours. place your last bets...

Posted by: volcanopele May 25 2011, 05:29 PM

Scientifically, I prefer SAGE. I'm very excited to see a return to the Venusian surface. Institutionally, I prefer OsirisREX since the SciOps center would be here in Tucson at the old Phoenix building. However, knowing NASA, it'll be MoonRISE.

Posted by: Paolo May 25 2011, 05:40 PM

my favorite would definitely be SAGE, then Osiris, then MoonRISE. No matter what, I still find the Moon boring...

Posted by: Juramike May 25 2011, 06:40 PM

SAGE...I like fuzzy planets.

Posted by: charborob May 25 2011, 07:13 PM

If the word "Planetary" in "New Planetary Science Mission" is to be taken literally, then it must mean a Venus mission, since neither the Moon nor an asteroid are considered planets.

Posted by: Deimos May 25 2011, 08:05 PM

Just posted at NASA multimedia:
http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogallery/index.html?media_id=90571421

OSIRIS-REx: Journey to an Asteroid

OSIRIS-REx will pluck samples from an asteroid and return them to Earth. The samples could help explain our solar system's formation and how life began. OSIRIS-REx (short for Origins-Spectral Interpretation-Resource Identification-Security-Regolith Explorer) has a planned launch date in 2016. When it returns to Earth, scheduled for 2023, it will be the first U.S. mission to carry samples from an asteroid back to our planet.

Posted by: djellison May 25 2011, 08:08 PM

Planetary is essentially solar system exploration. You can play a semantics game if you like - but that's what it is. Discovery program missions to comets, asteroids, moon, mars and elsewhere are all 'Planetary' in the budget.

Posted by: Deimos May 25 2011, 08:17 PM

The actual announcement of OSIRIS-REX is up now:
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/osiris-rex.html.

I have no stake in any (but I do like atmospheres). But, semantics aside, this sounds planetary enough for my tastes.

Posted by: Paolo May 28 2011, 01:15 PM

with Hayabusa 2 and OSIRIS-Rex approved I doubt that Marco Polo will get a chance to fly. I believe a more sensitive proposition would be for ESA to finance its contribution to one of these mission.
Anyway, there was recently an interesting paper in Astronomy & Astrophysics (with free access) on the target body of Marco Polo:
http://www.aanda.org/index.php?option=com_article&access=standard&Itemid=129&url=/articles/aa/abs/2011/06/aa17041-11/aa17041-11.html

Posted by: vjkane Jul 19 2011, 12:33 AM

There's a new proposal for the next stages in exploring Europa coming from a NASA Europa Science Definition Team. The basic idea is to carry only geophysical instruments that must make measurements from orbit on an orbiter. High data rate remote sensing -- presumably cameras and imaging spectrometers -- would be carried on a Jupiter orbiter that would make multiple flybys of Europa.

You can read an EPSC abstract http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EPSC-DPS2011/EPSC-DPS2011-627.pdf I have some additional analysis at my blog http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/2011/07/pragmatic-path-to-investigating-europas.html.

Posted by: machi Mar 15 2012, 09:47 PM

Bad news from Russian space science program - http://www.izvestia.ru/news/518517 (in Russian language), http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ru&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.izvestia.ru%2Fnews%2F518517.

It looks, that Russian Solar system research is gone for next few years (except cooperation in ExoMars project).

Posted by: machi Mar 16 2012, 08:52 PM

And some http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fria.ru%2Fscience%2F20120316%2F596895270.html from Russian space program.
Missions are not canceled, but postponed. They want to work on reliability issues, which is good idea.

Posted by: Paolo Feb 27 2013, 06:57 PM

been unsuccessfully trying googling for more info on the just selected Interplanetary NanoSpacecraft Pathfinder In Relevant Environment (INSPIRE) JPL CubeSat
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-073&rn=news.xml&rst=3706
hailed as "the world's first CubeSats to be launched beyond Earth orbit" (I think this title should go to the Japanese Shin'en, even if it never reported back to Earth).

Posted by: Phil Stooke Feb 27 2013, 07:17 PM

I've been trying too but no luck yet. The image with the release hinted at a lunar flyby. Meanwhile Pam Clark and colleagues have been promoting ideas like this as well, specifically for the Moon.

Phil

Posted by: Paolo Mar 14 2013, 09:45 AM

some details of INSPIRE (not much, in reality)
http://www.space.com/20022-tiny-cubesat-satellites-head-for-space.html

Posted by: MahFL Mar 20 2013, 04:25 PM

US restarts PU-238 production ( well a test really ).

http://news.yahoo.com/u-restarts-plutonium-production-space-probes-013110181.html

Posted by: stevesliva Mar 20 2013, 06:37 PM

Great to hear.

Posted by: Paolo Mar 29 2013, 08:37 AM

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/awx_03_28_2013_p0-564163.xml

Posted by: climber Jul 27 2016, 11:31 AM

Interesting infografic: http://i.imgur.com/lYdRVRi.png

Posted by: JRehling Jul 27 2016, 06:13 PM

I was just going to comment on the potential revolution(s) introduced by the EELT and other large telescopes (2 others somewhat smaller in development; one of those in limbo) that will come online in the next 5-10 years.

EELT is supposed to provide a resolution of up to 0.001 arc seconds, which would mean, roughly speaking, that Kuiper Belt objects could be imaged with about the same resolution that HST imaged Ceres and Vesta, including ~100 pixel views of Pluto.

This would also allow the separation of exoplanets from their host star for systems over 50 light years away, although the practical possibilities for observations will depend upon techniques for canceling out the star's glare.

When 2 or 3 telescopes with comparable power are available, it should be a significant boost for astronomy, accomplishing some things that might be done with spacecraft now and some things that can't be done at all now. JWST will already be online and filling other niches.

Posted by: climber Jul 28 2016, 07:30 PM

Yet another chart (from a tweet from Emily): https://twitter.com/elakdawalla/status/758726644341223424

Posted by: JRehling Oct 12 2016, 07:51 PM

Maybe I'm the only one who's antsy, but the news last year stated explicitly that the next one or two Discovery mission finalists would be selected "by September 2016," which is now in the past. At the very least, the announcement is late, and presumably, the decision hasn't quite finalized yet, either.

I suppose that's all there is to say about it… a deadline was slipped without any public notice of why, what it might mean, or when the actual announcement will be. Maybe it's just an organization being late… Maybe the lack of an update says something about the program direction as a whole?

Posted by: mcaplinger Oct 12 2016, 08:06 PM

Yes, that's all there is to say about it.

https://spaceflightnow.com/2016/09/07/nasa-official-says-new-mission-selections-on-track-despite-insight-woes/

"the head of the agency’s science division said this week NASA will still approve development of at least one new solar system probe in December."

Posted by: JRehling Dec 18 2016, 09:57 PM

On November 29, Jim Green told a VEXAG meeting, "There’s an excellent chance we’ll be able to complete the [Discovery] selection and make that announcement before the end of December."

That combination of statement and audience doesn't necessarily imply that the selection will include a Venus mission, but it sounds like we'll find out soon enough.

http://www.thespacereview.com/article/3123/1

Posted by: vjkane Dec 19 2016, 03:59 PM

I'm hearing from other sources that the announcement now may not come until the end of January.

Posted by: rlorenz Dec 24 2016, 12:42 AM

Some communications logistics indicators I've heard of point to early January. (NASA notifies the PIs by
phone before the public announcement so press releases can be queued up etc., and so NASA needs
to know how the PIs can be reached in a certain window). But things can change.

Posted by: PhilipTerryGraham Dec 27 2016, 02:36 AM

I'd also imagine the Christmas/New Year week would be an unideal time to make such an announcement, what with all the media noise that happens around this time of year. It'd be alot better to postpone it to January so that the announcement can get noticed more and stir more publicity for NASA.

Posted by: PhilipTerryGraham Jan 3 2017, 07:40 PM

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-to-hold-media-call-for-discovery-program-announcement The press conference to announce the 13th Discovery mission will be at 21:00 UTC (16:00 EST) on 4 January! Go Psyche!

Posted by: Explorer1 Jan 4 2017, 07:25 AM

I don't have a favourite myself, but the funny thing about this round is that is four of the five proposals can be thematically linked by subject (Venus and asteroids), so it would be neat for them to complement one another (if two are actually picked). I hope it was at least a factor in the decision on whether to do two....

Posted by: PhilipTerryGraham Jan 4 2017, 04:23 PM

Some news websites are already running with the headline that NASA has selected one of the Venus proposals. The News Recorder published 9 hours ago an article titled "http://www.thenewsrecorder.com/nasa-is-going-to-explore-earths-deadly-twin-venus/29281". The Latin Post published an article with the title "http://www.latinpost.com/articles/130606/20170104/report-nasas-next-plan-solar-system-venus-destination.htm". Neither article states any source or reason as to why VERITAS or DAVINCI have been the one(s) selected, and just recount the proposals and such like every other article is doing, so I call a load of bull.

Posted by: JRehling Jan 4 2017, 05:30 PM

We'll know soon enough… I tried to play detective in sneaky ways to get the answer early; I think I can rule one of the asteroid missions out, but I'll keep that reasoning to myself.

One thing I learned recently is that VERITAS had a proposed optional mini-entry probe that could steal much of DAVINCI's thunder.

If you were going to launch both of the Venus missions eventually, VERITAS logically precedes DAVINCI – it would provide an incremental improvement in the ability to pick DAVINCI's landing site. There's a third mission in the background, too – the proposed New Frontiers mission to Venus, whose goals would be partially addressed by either of these Discovery proposals.

I see VERITAS as the favorite in terms of the science, but then, there are behind-the-scenes factors about readiness, etc., that are outside of public purview.

Waiting eagerly…

Posted by: PhilipTerryGraham Jan 4 2017, 05:42 PM

Do you mean the New Frontiers mission to Venus, or...?

Posted by: JRehling Jan 4 2017, 05:42 PM

The News Recorder article is literally incoherent – grammatically mangled sentences whose meaning is indecipherable. I don't think it's an accurate source of information. The article begins, "Under a mission on discovering the possible dangerous cosmic objects near to earth surface by 2020…" I'm not even sure if the writer knows what a headline is for or can accurately distinguish between statements of fact and statements of possibility.

Posted by: JRehling Jan 4 2017, 05:43 PM

Yes! Thanks; I corrected it.

Posted by: PhilipTerryGraham Jan 4 2017, 06:43 PM

It's official! The press release has come early! https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-selects-two-missions-to-explore-the-early-solar-system Lucy for launch in 2021 and Psyche for launch in 2023! Incredible!

Posted by: Explorer1 Jan 4 2017, 07:30 PM

Sweet! The Youtube announcement is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYdCU1QQQro

Possible Lucy targets here (one in the main-belt en route to the Trojans): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucy_(spacecraft)#Targets

Posted by: JRehling Jan 4 2017, 07:40 PM

Between them, the missions will visit 7 asteroids… That will roughly/more than double the number of closely-explored asteroids.

Posted by: PhilipTerryGraham Jan 4 2017, 07:51 PM

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe this will be the third deep space mission led by SwRI after New Horizons and IBEX, and ASU's second after Phoenix.

Posted by: charborob Jan 4 2017, 07:57 PM

I'm very excited about the Psyche mission, except... arrival will be in 2030, and I'll be 76 by then. I just hope I will still have some wits remaining in order to enjoy the mission.

Posted by: mcaplinger Jan 4 2017, 08:04 PM

The Phoenix PI was at University of Arizona, not ASU. They're not the same.

Posted by: PhilipTerryGraham Jan 4 2017, 08:08 PM

Ahh whoops. I always find myself confusing many similarly-located universities all the time. n.n'

Posted by: Explorer1 Jan 4 2017, 10:34 PM

Seems like a consequence of using ion engines and going to the main belt; these things take time. The cost-cap prevents use of bigger launchers too...

Will there be a link to the recorded telecon eventually?

Posted by: JRehling Jan 5 2017, 04:19 AM

Casting a quick eye ahead to the New Frontiers possibilities, two of the options were related to Discovery selections from this time around… Lucy fulfills one of the NF options and the Venus missions could have fulfilled one but did not.

Another NF option is a lunar far side sample return, and I wonder if China might accomplish that… they're planning a far side landing and a sample return, but not necessarily a far side sample return.

If so, the wholly unfulfilled NF options are:

Comet sample return
Io mission in Jupiter orbit
Ocean worlds (Enceladus, Titan)
Saturn entry probe
VISE (unspecific, but ambitious, mission to Venus)

Small bodies are on a roll after getting two Discovery missions. That would continue if the comet sample return is chosen.

EDIT: The Io option is only for the fifth NF selection, not the next one. One might also note that analysis of Stardust samples is ongoing, which possibly interacts with the comet sample return selection, although the NF priorities were drawn up with that already in mind. It's also interesting to note that three separate targets in the Saturn system are indicated.

Both the "ocean worlds" and VISE missions are highly uncertain as to possible architectures. This was also true of the NF priority for Jupiter, which early on involved consideration of an entry probe, but ended with the selection of the Juno orbiter.

Posted by: TheAnt Jan 5 2017, 05:45 PM

Both are highly interesting missions, and they do get a thumbs up from me.
I am certain all or at least most here would approve on a more aggressive space explanation program- and at least me, science in general. (Like Rehling I would love to see an Io mission.)
So I cannot but wonder if the choice might have bee made for a bit more than just the science return.
Psyche is after all the potentially a most valuable chunk, and both missions also will be a first flight to new kinds of targets.

The Lucy mission is unusual that it will attempt to study both leading and trailing Trojans, well at least one of the latter - a bold idea, but it will mean that all will be flybys.
It will provide some data much earlier since it will do a flyby of one regular asteroid belt object on the first outward leg though.
Then to fly back to the vicinity of Earth's orbit around the Sun, and then to swing out to one last encounter on the opposite Lagrange 5 side.
So they have managed to get six science targets in a single mission, and perhaps after doing a telescopic search they might even be able to add one or two more - who knows.

Posted by: HSchirmer Jan 5 2017, 07:43 PM

Lots of targets in one mission,
Wasn't there a proposal for a "kamikaze" asteroid belt mission long ago?
Retrograde orbit through the main asteroid belt, following Jupiter's 3:1 kirkwood gap,
Would have had about 2,000 targets within 1/10th AU...

Posted by: JRehling Jan 6 2017, 03:48 AM

As far as I know, I was the first person to advance that idea. Although I'd be happy to be proven wrong.

Posted by: TheAnt Jan 6 2017, 03:58 PM

@JRehling. I looked it up and you did in deed in 2007, some horse memory there.
An guesstimate figure in that thread that such a mission http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?showtopic=4087.

The Trojan encounters for Lucy will be rather slow since they will happen when the spacecraft is more or less at the apsis of the orbit around the Sun.
So the speed might be slow enough to get images of the Trojans during more than one rotation.
That first passage of the main belt asteroid will be faster though so there we might only get high resolution images of one side.

Posted by: rlorenz Jan 7 2017, 12:06 PM

Given the actual all-asteroids outcome, I have to say I am especially curious as to this reasoning....



'Had'. There was a TDO (emphasis T in TDO - Technology demonstration) probe in the step 1 proposal, as I understand it this was withdrawn in step 2.

Whatever 'thunder' it might have stolen, close consideration suggests actual science results wouldn't have been it, this 'dipping' probe (presented at IPPW last year) would not sampled below the homopause,
so the noble gas isotope ratios would not have been fully reflective of the bulk atmospheric history

Posted by: JRehling Jan 8 2017, 05:57 AM

Quite simply, I looked at the Twitter accounts of the 4 PMs who have one, and tried to suss out if their recent tweets might provide clues as to their activity and/or location. The mission I thought might be ruled out was one of the ones that was actually selected. The clue I was trying to interpret clearly didn't mean what I thought it did, but then, there are a lot of variables in a person's life beyond the meager clues they dropped on social media.

Posted by: Explorer1 Mar 25 2017, 10:15 PM

Not sure where else to put this, but an award for further study of a tiny Apophis mission, among others: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-selects-cubesat-smallsat-mission-concept-studies

Posted by: rlorenz Dec 18 2017, 09:40 PM

Here it comes.... NF4 Phase A selections to be announced Wednesday
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-to-name-finalists-for-future-solar-system-mission

Posted by: vjkane Dec 20 2017, 03:19 AM

I'll admit to a personal bias towards geomorphology missions -- geomorphology is key to my professional work. So my fingers are crossed for VOX (Venus orbiter) or Oceanus (Titan orbiter). But in writing my blog posts on the submitted missions, I realized the quality of the science any of the missions would do. So, congratulations to whichever teams are selected for the next round of studies. All would do great science.

Posted by: rlorenz Dec 20 2017, 07:52 PM

Well, not global geomorphology, but Dragonfly will give you some cool aerial photography on local/regional scales at least.....

Posted by: Explorer1 Dec 20 2017, 08:59 PM

Both proposals are great https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-invests-in-concept-development-for-missions-to-comet-saturn-moon-titan, so it will be very hard to choose; back to Titan, or seeing 67P (and Rosetta and Philae!) again? The changes over mutlipel orbits are surely worth a revisit.

In the telecon Steve Squyres said a sample return from the comet would land 2038, but they were still not clear on any launchers that might speed things up (over 20 years!).


Titan is so tempting as well, and a pity about Venus... sorely neglected by everyone but Japan and Europe, bu there's always the next Discovery round.

Posted by: rlorenz Dec 21 2017, 01:23 PM

A paper on the Dragonfly concept is online at the APL Dragonfly web page

http://dragonfly.jhuapl.edu/docs/DragonflyTechDigestAPL.pdf

Posted by: vjkane Dec 21 2017, 03:46 PM

It's interesting that what are potentially the two most complex proposals made it to the finals. My congratulations to the teams that proposed them -- their proposals must have been stellar.

In doing my research for my blog posts on the New Frontiers proposals, I learned how complex gathering a sample from some depth and potentially through a hard crust would be. There's also the problem of trying to preserve -- essentially keep frozen -- the volatiles in the sample. One of the three teams proposed not to try, and instead measure the volatiles through instrumentation. CAESAR apparently would return the volatiles (as would have the other proposal to return samples from P67). By comparison, OSIRIS-REx is seeking to collect "just" surface samples from a body not believed to have volatiles at the surface, and its sampling mechanisms are complex.

I liked Dragonfly from the time I first saw it, but feared it would be to risky for selection -- autonomous flight over poorly mapped terrain, uncertain surface conditions, and the like. That proposal must have been incredible to address those concerns.

My only concern about the finalists is that I'll be in my young 80s by the time they either begin exploring Titan or return a sample. The invention of warp drive would be much appreciated.

Posted by: monty python Dec 22 2017, 07:09 AM

How do you keep parts of the copter from getting "crudded up"? Like camera lenses, propeller axels etc. And boy, that antenna better work!

Posted by: rlorenz Dec 22 2017, 02:37 PM

Like any other space mission (like rovers on dusty Mars, or the not insignificant challenges associated with a comet) the interactions of the vehicle with the environment need to be considered carefully - analysis, testing, covers, actuator performance margins etc.

Posted by: vjkane Dec 22 2017, 02:40 PM

I wonder if one strategy on Titan would be to simply heat the instrument's surface enough to melt and evaporate dust, mist, etc.

Posted by: vjkane Dec 22 2017, 02:52 PM

Ralph, if you can say, I have a couple of questions after reading your great paper:

Would Dragonfly have a mast for the panoramic cameras? I see something that looks like it may be a folded down mast in the drawings of the lander

Your instrument list doesn't include an imaging spectrometer. Are the cameras multispectral, and if so does the team believe it could distinguish among broad surface types during flight (e.g., water ice, ammonia-rich water ice, carbon-rich sands) for the aerial surveys?

Posted by: rlorenz Dec 23 2017, 01:00 AM

No.

I appreciate your curiosity, but you'll understand
1) this paper is already extraordinarily detailed for a concept under competitive evaluation. You're welcome!
2) many implementation details may evolve during the Phase A study in any case

Posted by: monty python Dec 23 2017, 11:23 PM

I admit I don't know enough about titans cold organics, but I bet heating would help. I'm sure the people developing it will mitigate risk like crazy.

And even an examination of one site on the surface is great!

Posted by: nprev Dec 24 2017, 02:32 AM

That's likely an interesting problem. Heating up Titanian surface material probably does volatilize it fairly rapidly, but the atmosphere is so dense that it may not waft away conveniently. Might be that some compounds dissociate and then recombine in fairly short order into other stuff, which may introduce additional issues.

Heating up Titanian materials and observing the results might be a productive line of experimentation all by itself.

Posted by: Gerald Dec 24 2017, 04:17 AM

It must be an el dorado for all kinds of distilation, chromatography and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional_crystallization_(chemistry).

Posted by: Explorer1 Jun 26 2019, 11:49 PM

Big announcement tomorrow (4 PM EST)!: https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-to-announce-new-solar-system-mission-hold-media-teleconference

We'll see if Titan or 67P gets graced with a visitor next....

Posted by: Hungry4info Jun 27 2019, 08:05 PM

Dragonfly has been selected.

They'll land in the dune areas near Huygens, then make their way to Selk crater to the north-west.

Posted by: bkellysky Jun 28 2019, 12:57 AM

Yes, I thought the Huygens probe camera saw some waviness in the atmosphere after landing from volatilizing some of the surface. Reminded me of heat rising from a hot summer highway (although not as pronounced).
bob k

Posted by: Holder of the Two Leashes Jul 2 2020, 03:59 PM

Southwest Research Institute has announced a significant improvement in their engineering models of a spacecraft lander sized geochronometer utilizing measurement of isotope ratios.

LINK: https://www.swri.org/press-release/planetary-dating-codex-radioisotope-radioactive-decay