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dmuller
Posted on: Mar 14 2010, 12:35 AM


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QUOTE (JimOberg @ Mar 14 2010, 07:48 AM) *
When is the closest Itokawa flyby, and how far?

Itokawa has two close-ish approaches coming up. According to the SSD Horizons system (searching in 24 hour intervals, it quit on me trying to narrow down the time interval):
07-Aug-2010 at around 85 million km
16-Dec-2012 at around 96 million km
  Forum: Cometary and Asteroid Missions · Post Preview: #157039 · Replies: 702 · Views: 694238

dmuller
Posted on: Mar 9 2010, 04:13 PM


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QUOTE (peter59 @ Mar 9 2010, 09:58 PM) *
... half a million kilometers ...

Distance from Vesta of 500,000km is achieved late in the day on 31 May 2011 (UT) according to that reference trajectory. Velocity relative to Vesta at that time is around 810 km/h.
  Forum: Dawn · Post Preview: #156724 · Replies: 285 · Views: 337413

dmuller
Posted on: Mar 9 2010, 12:30 AM


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QUOTE (nprev @ Mar 7 2010, 08:38 PM) *
Possibly a silly question, but at what inclination is this reference orbit? Wondering if they intend to (or even can) try for a polar/near-polar for full mapping.

I do NOT know the answer but I would expect it to be polar / polarish (assuming Vesta's rotational tilt is 29 deg or so) ... not just to get a global (hestial?) map, but also to ensure the solar panels are sun bathing all the time. I doubt they can thrust on batteries "behind" Vesta when they spiral in / spiral out. On the upside, this allows for more easy comms as well.
A quick look at the trajectory state vectors (Dawn as seen from Vesta) shows that the z-axis goes from +2960km to -2960km during the survey orbits. AFAIK that z-axis is perpendicular to the ecliptic. So that looks pretty polar if Vesta's tilt is indeed 29deg.
I'll have a closer look in due course.
  Forum: Dawn · Post Preview: #156703 · Replies: 285 · Views: 337413

dmuller
Posted on: Mar 7 2010, 08:51 AM


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Received a kind and very detailed email from Marc Rayman which answers quite a few questions raised regarding Vesta arrival and subsequent science orbits. Main focus is that all these information pertain to planned and reference orbits etc. Reality will be different because of so many unknowns at Vesta. His email, slightly edited ...

QUOTE
We have constraints on the orbit we want to achieve based on the plans for acquiring and returning the data, but the details will depend on Vesta's gravity field and higher order gravity terms. So I hope you understand the 3003 x 2994 km orbit is just our current design. As I wrote in my latest Dawn Journal, we are beginning the detailed sequence design, and this is the reference orbit we use, but we are making the design tolerant to significant changes that will be dictated by what we find there. Planning for orbital operations at a massive body with a highly uncertain gravity field is very complicated.

That first orbit is called "survey orbit." The first ~ 5 days we are there will be used to tweak the sequences based on the actual orbit, updates to instrument parameters (e.g., integration times based on data acquired during approach), etc.

With our current design, the next science orbit will be at a radius of 950 km, and the third and lowest science orbit will be at a radius of about 460 km. Of course, we will not proceed from one orbit to the next without verifying we can do so safely, but unless we discover a problem, we will not change our plans once we are at Vesta. We will not choose to go to a lower orbit (apart, again, from what is needed based on the actual gravity field).

We have no concern about accidental impact with Vesta, even in the lowest orbit. The choice of the lowest radius is a trade-off between the need to go low for the benefit of GRaND on the one hand vs. the time required to travel there and the difficulty of operating so deep in the gravity field. When we are thrusting to low orbits, we are not acquiring the highest quality science data, and at some point it simply isn’t worth the time to continue flying down rather than devoting the time to getting the nuclear spectra. We have a lot to learn about the field, and while the risk of crashing is truly negligible, we still can get a very wild ride. Moreover, with our very large solar arrays, accommodating the gravity gradient torque at low altitude will be a challenge.

We can escape from any orbit we can fly to. The total delta-v for Vesta operations is a very small fraction of the flight system’s total capability. We spiral down, and then we spiral out!


  Forum: Dawn · Post Preview: #156609 · Replies: 285 · Views: 337413

dmuller
Posted on: Mar 4 2010, 06:22 AM


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The actual closest flyby altitude was ultimately 67km due to an engine overburn ... http://webservices.esa.int/blog/blog/7

New SPICE kernels are in as well, taking us to 20Mar and hence the remaining close flybys. Just to add confusion, the table below states UTC times and not ephemeris times as my earlier table:

CODE
2010-03-07  01:27:37   Close Phobos flyby at 122km. Relative speed 10,488km
2010-03-10  05:59:37   Close Phobos flyby at 288km. Relative speed 10,406km
2010-03-13  10:31:41   Close Phobos flyby at 477km. Relative speed 10,330km
2010-03-16  15:03:48   Phobos flyby at 664km. Relative speed 10,262km
2010-03-19  19:35:58   Phobos flyby at 850km. Relative speed 10,201km
  Forum: Mars Express & Beagle 2 · Post Preview: #156414 · Replies: 243 · Views: 625367

dmuller
Posted on: Mar 2 2010, 07:41 AM


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QUOTE (stevesliva @ Mar 2 2010, 06:23 PM) *
So Peridemeter and apodemeter, perhaps.

Mmm yeah and if you can't remember those you definitely have peridementia and apodementia
  Forum: Dawn · Post Preview: #156278 · Replies: 285 · Views: 337413

dmuller
Posted on: Mar 2 2010, 02:51 AM


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QUOTE (charborob @ Mar 2 2010, 05:55 AM) *
Do these numbers represent the distance from the center of Vesta, or the overall size of the orbit?

That's an apogee of 3,003km and perigee of 2,994km measured from the "center" of Vesta. Vesta isn't round (it's 578×560×458 km), so altitude above Vesta will vary to some extent.

Explorer1, I haven't seen any figures on how close Dawn will go to Vesta. The initial orbit is at a safe distance to explore and refine models, they may only decide later as to how much to reduce the orbit. I think (but I may be wrong) that the main criteria for the lowest orbit are instrument constraints, comms and safe altitude (no point crashing) ... I think Dawn should be able to escape Vesta from any orbit.
  Forum: Dawn · Post Preview: #156267 · Replies: 285 · Views: 337413

dmuller
Posted on: Mar 1 2010, 05:11 PM


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Dawn has published the first arrival trajectory kernels. They're likely to change, but still it is very interesting to see how different the approach to a "traditional" orbit insertion will be, mainly due to the lack of a short and decisive orbit insertion burn. According to that trajectory data:

1) Dawn is captured by Vesta (i.e. orbit eccentricity < 1) on 21 July 2011 05:08:35 whilst still 15,756km away from (the center of) Vesta, and at a relative speed of 0.048km/s

2) Dawn achieves its initial orbit (near-circular 3003x2994km) on 04 August 2011 17:29:53. Ion thrusting ceases at around the same time (otherwise the resulting orbit wouldnt be circular). Relative speed then is 0.077km/s
  Forum: Dawn · Post Preview: #156230 · Replies: 285 · Views: 337413

dmuller
Posted on: Feb 27 2010, 01:22 AM


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QUOTE (djellison @ Feb 26 2010, 06:18 PM) *
Yes - but does Canberra have a steel Loch Ness Monster sticking out of a dry lake bed?

The federal parliament house?
  Forum: Telescopic Observations · Post Preview: #156126 · Replies: 30 · Views: 28119

dmuller
Posted on: Feb 25 2010, 11:08 PM


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Nice one ...
QUOTE (climber @ Feb 23 2010, 07:46 AM) *
...at its closest encounter, on Mars 3 the probe will ..."


I haven't found published information on the exact flyby times, here's what I've calculated using the SPICE kernels I could find:
CODE
03Mar 20:56:32UT  50km (altitude)
07Mar 01:28:34UT 109km
28Feb 16:24:32UT 227km
25Feb 11:52:32UT 399km

I havent come across the 5th flyby yet. It may well be after 9 March which is when the current trajectory data (available to me) runs out.

I will update the MEX realtime simulation at http://www.dmuller.net/mex with these dates in due course.
  Forum: Mars Express & Beagle 2 · Post Preview: #156065 · Replies: 243 · Views: 625367

dmuller
Posted on: Feb 17 2010, 05:29 AM


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You can also try http://www.space-multimedia.nl.eu.org/ ... if it was on NASA TV then it should be there (right now though the site seems to be down)
  Forum: Cometary and Asteroid Missions · Post Preview: #155712 · Replies: 68 · Views: 86968

dmuller
Posted on: Feb 13 2010, 04:38 AM


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Just noticed it's gonna be a "crashy" 2017 ... one month after Cassini enters Saturn's atmosphere (15 Sep 2017), it is Juno's time to disintegrate in Jupiter's atmosphere (16 Oct 2017)
  Forum: Cassini general discussion and science results · Post Preview: #155475 · Replies: 120 · Views: 127717

dmuller
Posted on: Feb 11 2010, 03:59 PM


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The 50m/s is indeed a lot, not sure how accurate that number is. So I dont think that they dont know yet when entry will occur; it be pretty much targeted for already ever since the thrusting resumed. The question is of course whether they make it, or whether something else starts to act up on the craft.

Did some "research" on Wikipedia. Entry timeline is as follows:
CODE
# X−90 days: Finish the ion-engine operation and measure the precise trajectory.
# X−42 days: Trajectory Control Maneuver 1 (TCM-1) to the Earth-rim trajectory.
# X−21 days: TCM-2 precision trajectory control to the Earth rim.
# X−9 days: TCM-3 to change the trajectory from the Earth rim to Woomera, South Australia.
# X−4 days: TCM-4 precision maneuver to Woomera.
# X−1 day: Capsule temperature heating control.
# X−8 hours: Release the capsule.
# X−0 hours: Reentry of the capsule, expected to land in the Woomera Prohibited Area


Interesting article also at http://m.nationalgeographic.com/news/37737...2F3C395656.wap1 ... the whole spacecraft will enter Earth's atmosphere, not only the return capsule. They say it's to simulate the behaviour of an asteroid near the Earth, though my take is that they dont have enough engine power to get the craft out of Earth's way after capsule release ...
  Forum: Cometary and Asteroid Missions · Post Preview: #155379 · Replies: 702 · Views: 694238

dmuller
Posted on: Feb 11 2010, 11:27 AM


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I think the arrival time can be "adjusted", within limits. 100 days out from Earth, my sim tells me the delta-v required to delay your arrival by 24 hours and maintaining the same entry angle is around 50 - 60 m/s. Hayabusa should be able to make such an adjustment (or less thereof, to make sure Australia is there as well at that time), either as an independent maneuver or built into the current thrusting (through spacecraft attitude). I would think the latter is built into the mission planning anyway. Unfortunately I have no access to any software to properly simulate / calculate this.

Question regarding landing in water: has any UNMANNED mission (other than unmanned Apollos etc) ever intentionally set down in water? How would you find the craft even with a beacon ... it ain't that big anymore :-)
  Forum: Cometary and Asteroid Missions · Post Preview: #155365 · Replies: 702 · Views: 694238

dmuller
Posted on: Feb 10 2010, 12:53 AM


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AFAIK Hayabusa is slated to land in the desert in Australia, much of which is a restricted zone (thanks to nuke testing some decades ago) anyway. Plus it's huge, and many parts are not easily accessible, so i dont think that's a major problem.
  Forum: Cometary and Asteroid Missions · Post Preview: #155299 · Replies: 702 · Views: 694238

dmuller
Posted on: Feb 5 2010, 12:16 AM


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QUOTE (Bjorn Jonsson @ Feb 5 2010, 09:58 AM) *
This link was posted in this thread earlier today:
http://www.mpi-hd.mpg.de/cassini/xxm/SM-7/SM-7_all.txt

I have used that file in my timeline, hence you can also search my website by target: http://www.dmuller.net/spaceflight/target....target=hyperion

  Forum: Cassini general discussion and science results · Post Preview: #155061 · Replies: 120 · Views: 127717

dmuller
Posted on: Feb 4 2010, 03:31 AM


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QUOTE (volcanopele @ Feb 4 2010, 02:13 PM) *

Aaaah that's the one to use, thanks a lot. Must have missed the file end date. Will update the flying distances in a couple of hours.

I don't think it will change encounter times, I took those from http://www.mpi-hd.mpg.de/cassini/xxm/SM-7/SM-7_all.txt ... unfortunately I'm not blessed with trajectory analysis software etc that can nicely spit out encounters. I still live in the time of state vectors and Pythagoras ... and I am NOT going to calculate all those 1400+ events manually!
  Forum: Cassini general discussion and science results · Post Preview: #154977 · Replies: 120 · Views: 127717

dmuller
Posted on: Feb 4 2010, 01:57 AM


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Updated my realtime simulation with the good news! Cassini has now completed 61.8% of its mission by time and 68% by distance flown. Distance to fly to impact estimated to be 2.5 bn km w.r.t. Sun, 16.9AU. Does anybody have a SPICE kernel for the extended mission?

Also updated the full mission timeline ... it's one long page by now! I assumed that it is still XXM - SM7 that's being flown.

Go Cassini!
  Forum: Cassini general discussion and science results · Post Preview: #154971 · Replies: 120 · Views: 127717

dmuller
Posted on: Feb 1 2010, 06:30 AM


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Hayabusa would miss Earth by just 1 million km if the ion drives completely fail at this stage:
http://www.jspec.jaxa.jp/e/activity/hayabusa.html
  Forum: Cometary and Asteroid Missions · Post Preview: #154715 · Replies: 702 · Views: 694238

dmuller
Posted on: Jan 31 2010, 01:58 PM


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QUOTE (brellis @ Jan 31 2010, 11:04 PM) *
From that p.o.v. - looks like they can get a Mars-Earth 2-shot! Perhaps "cruise mode" doesn't let her wake up for these Kodak moments, though.

Not really ... straight line is around 10 March 2010, but the inclination is off by a lot:
http://space.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/wspace?t...=1&showsc=1

They're not gonna stop thrusting and re-orient the spacecraft for that, I reckon.
  Forum: Dawn · Post Preview: #154638 · Replies: 285 · Views: 337413

dmuller
Posted on: Jan 21 2010, 03:28 AM


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One of my jobs got canceled, so rather than watching the black hole in my bank account grow, I made some use of my (non-existing) philosophical side. Slightly changed the lyrics of Save A Prayer by Duran Duran (youtube) to adapt it to the Huygens mission. Clearly I'm not doing this for a living! My changes in CAPS:


WE saw YOU standing ON THE TALL
TITAN ON THE LAUNCH PAD
And the lights WERE flashing on your window sill
All alone ain't much fun
So you're looking for the thrill
And you know just what it takes and where to go

Don't say a prayer for me now
Save it 'til the morning after
No, don't say a prayer for me now
Save it 'til the morning after

Feel the breeze YOU LEAVE BEHIND
AS YOU RACE INTO THE SKY
If you can, you'll see the world IS ALL SO FRAGILE
Take a chance like all dreamers you can't find no other way
You don't have to dream it all, just live a day

Don't say a prayer for me now,
Save it 'til the morning after
No, don't say a prayer for me now
Save it 'til the morning after
Save it 'til the morning after
Save it till the morning after

Pretty looking MOON,
I try to hold the rising floods that fill my skin
Don't ask me why I'll keep my promise
SEND YOU THERE
And you wanted to SHINE so I asked you to SHINE
But fear is in OUR soulS
Some people call it a one night stand
But we can call it paradise

Don't say a prayer for me now,
Save it 'til the morning after
No, don't say a prayer for me now,
Save it 'til the morning after
Save it 'til the morning after
Save it 'til the morning after
Save it 'til the morning after
Save it 'til the morning after

Save a prayer 'til the morning after
  Forum: Titan · Post Preview: #153732 · Replies: 1 · Views: 3128

dmuller
Posted on: Jan 20 2010, 07:30 AM


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Launch replay is at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNJNaIoa5Hk. I still get the shivers from mission commentary at T +15sec ... "... sending the New Horizons spacecraft on its way to the very edge of the solar system". 2.3 billion km closer to there now!

On that note, anybody got updated SPICE kernels for the trajectory? The last one I used on my realtime simulation expired on 31/12/09, I'm now running on NASA's HORIZONS system, which uses a post-launch reference trajectory (nh_ref_20060119_20150925_v04), but I think that's not the latest ...
  Forum: New Horizons · Post Preview: #153645 · Replies: 1628 · Views: 1113844

dmuller
Posted on: Jan 19 2010, 05:41 PM


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QUOTE (Canopus @ Jan 19 2010, 11:50 PM) *
And thanks dmuller for that timeline. I'd not seen it before.

It's from my website at http://www.dmuller.net/newhorizons (I know, shameless advertising rolleyes.gif )
  Forum: New Horizons · Post Preview: #153611 · Replies: 1628 · Views: 1113844

dmuller
Posted on: Jan 16 2010, 03:56 AM


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QUOTE (elakdawalla @ Jan 16 2010, 01:05 PM) *
... Phoenix tried to walk south for the winter ...

Nah, snowboarding south!
  Forum: MRO 2005 · Post Preview: #153360 · Replies: 75 · Views: 76114

dmuller
Posted on: Jan 3 2010, 04:42 AM


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Well New Horizons is now closer to Pluto than Earth (and will remain so), but that's a little bit helped by the fact that Earth is "behind" the Sun as seen from New Horizons. 2010/2011 brings a few more "halfway" marks, orbit crossings etc (my calculations):

CODE
2010 Feb-25:          Halfway to Pluto ... by distance flown
2010 Jul-14:          Halfway between the Sun and Pluto (as at C/A)
2010 Oct-17 03:29:30: Halfway to Pluto ... by time
2011 Mar-17:          Closest approach to Neptune at 22.988 AU
2011 Mar-18:          Crosses Uranus Orbit
2011 May-22 06:32:27: 20 AU from Sun
2011 Nov-16:          Closest approach to Asteroid Pholus (11.173 AU)


Happy 2010!
  Forum: New Horizons · Post Preview: #152740 · Replies: 1628 · Views: 1113844

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