Gah! I missed the press conference because I was in the middle of negotiating a fair valuation for my house regarding property taxes!

Anyway, most of it is now on YouTube, if you missed it too -- here's the link to part 1, with two more parts posted by the same user.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWvpQ5Jwyfg

The space-multimedia archive site will probably have the full video at some point in the next day or two.

Anyway, this is fantastic news! I guess after Hubble's trials, there's always that period of worry and second guessing before you get the first block of science data and the instrument finally checks out okay.

Yeah, I was just kidding with the tease comment. Even if they see Earth-like planet transits in the first data download, they're not going to announce anything until they've seen it happen two more times, which might not be for another two years. It is nice to know that the telescope is working extremely well, by the sound of it.

(And I am fine with vague updates on the quality of the data -- beats not hearing anything for a year or more!)

Mind you, there should be ample time before June 18th to see three transits from a hot-Jupiter, so we should be hearing something fairly soon after that. I guess the question is will they announce confirmed results before any papers are written?

From the latest Kepler Project Manager Update:

You know, it's just not fair to tease us like this!

Indeed. I guess we're entering the "hurry up and wait" stage as we wait for the first announcements of hot Jupiters and the like.

I assume they won't be announcing anything for several months, even if they find some short period planets within the next few weeks?

So, any predictions as to when that will be?

At 2.5 days between transits, a solid confirmation will take between 5 and 7.5 days of observations, plus whatever wait time there is till the next scheduled download, and however long it takes to eke out the light curves from the data.

Before the middle of May, perchance?

Short answer is that they haven't even started looking in earnest yet -- the search proper will begin in 2011 when the background for the search isn't so cluttered with stars. They will still have plenty of time to search the relatively small field accessible to New Horizons after it leaves the vicinity of Pluto.

In the forseeable future, perhaps such a project is undoable. But what about in 100 years, or 200? Once we've been to every corner of our own solar system, what's left but to explore beyond it? For that we have only two choices--launch ourselves (or, by proxy, unmanned probes) into interstellar space or build bigger telescopes all the better to see with. Which one of these endeavors will be more practical first? I would be very surprised if it's the probes. The return on investment, no matter howdaunting, would be far greater from launching a mega-space telescope that could instantly observe hundreds of worlds than from launching a probe that would take decades to get to one.

A subject which has been fascinating me recently is the nature of interstellar space exploration at some far off point into the future. It would seem to me that even if one day decades or centuries from now interstellar spacecraft (unmanned or manned) become a practical proposition, the most efficient way of exploring the galaxy around us will continue to be bigger and better telescopes in space, on the Moon, on Mars, etc.

While there is no substitute for being on the spot, it will certainly be many centuries before we have the technology and resources to visit planets and fully explore them more than a few light years in any direction from Earth. But we already know, in principle, how to build ginormous space telescopes that can capture the trickle of reflected photons from exoplanets many light years away, and the odds are we will have the ability to do so within decades, not centuries.

It's all very interesting speculation, though since I am but a mere amateur, I have a few questions about the practicalities and limitations of such an enterprise, assuming the funds and technologies are available. Remember, we're not talking about the near future here. Assume we already have a dozen space elevators around the Earth, colonies on the Moon and on Mars, and regular missions to the asteroids, Jupiter, Saturn, and beyond. Perhaps 200, 300, even 400 years hence.

- Is there a point where bigger or sharper scopes won't help resolve further detail in the images of exoplanets?
- At what point will we have to send the telescopes into the outer system beyond the effects of zodiacal light?
- How far will we be able to probe before interstellar gases and dust become a problem?
- Any guesses as to the absolute limit of reliable observations where we can examine the nature of a planet and its atmosphere--i.e. enough to detect signs of life and civilization--(excluding chance events like gravitational lensing)? Is it tens, hundreds, or thousands of light years?
- If there are planets in, say, the Beta Centauri system, how much detail on their surfaces could we potentially resolve. Could we ever see Beta Centauri b as well as we can Mars from Earth through a thousand dollar telescope?

There are some very interesting mission designs already on the drawing board for the decades ahead, but how much further can we go in exploring the galaxy around us before we would have to leave our own solar system to continue the work?

I was also looking forward to a big announcement. Ah well, that's the scientific process, I guess. It seems like it's going to take a good while to get the discovery pipeline cranking.

Congratulations on a successful burn (assuming "to Pluto" doesn't literally mean "at Pluto"

Now that you know how much fuel you will have left after the Pluto encounter, do you know what the current odds of finding a suitable KBO within reach of the spacecraft are?

While I understand that there are two target regions between which COROT will alternate every six months, I hadn't realized they were planning to observe new locations within those region each time the spacecraft came back to them. I can imagine that at some point (maybe in an extended mission) they might decide to return to a spot previously observed in an attempt to observe repeat events caused by planets with longer orbits.

I guess it all depends on what sort of data they observe in the first few observational runs. If they find a number of great Earth-sized candidates in one region, I should have thought they would be tempted to return to it the next year.

Thanks for pointing out the update, Rakhir.

Now, I assume they mean 12,000 light curves from stars that are candidates for hosting exoplanets. 12,000 light curves involving exoplanets in one month would be utterly mind blowing.

Not helping with the anticipation...

Anyone know when the COROT guys are going to make their next announcement? Any rumors yet?

Their first was a wonderful tease...

From the odd hints being dropped at the Santorini conference it sounds like the COROT guys are already sitting on some interesting discoveries...

Just get a move on, why don't you!!!

Very nice indeed. Excellent idea, and thanks!

Great work on the maps, as always! One suggestion, if I might be so bold. Would it be possible to use different colors for marking the progress and stops for the return journey? It would be a nice enhancement to what is already an excellent piece of work.

MRO went into safe mode a couple of days ago. Communications with the rovers has been reduced to a minimum. Hence no major downloads of new images. Things should be back to normal in a few days.

Astounding! The dunes!!

Just found this Clangers episode on YouTube (for those of you who don't know about the Clangers or the Soup Dragon).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HArUmqqiL0s

The episode is called "The Intruder" and is especially appropriate for this message board! Sadly there's no appearance by the Soup Dragon, but never fear, here's an episode in which the Soup Dragon features (about 5 minutes in):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GgyeB6A5bHo

Ah - happy childhood memories!

Enjoy.

Oh my, you're getting me so nostalgic. I used to live in Jordanhill (Glasgow) from 1970-84 (a Sassenach from Yorkshire). I no longer have the accent (living in England and Texas will do that to you) but it's fun to hear it again from time-to-time

Well the main objective of the mission is to find evidence of water on Mars. Without the IDD that mission is severely hampered. It's a judgement call they are continually having to make but it seems to me that for now they are still putting the future use of the IDD ahead of zooming off to Victoria.

It's a tough spot to be in, but I suspect they will continue to baby the arm until they're done with Erebus. With a significant vertical rock face within easy reach, they want to make sure they still have the IDD available to examine it. After that, perhaps then they will make Victoria number one priority.

Anyone know why they're not going around the base of Home Plate? Sure the view is better from up top, but that's not where the geology is exposed. I know they're itching to get to McCool for the winter...so is that why they're skipping across instead of round?

I suppose one thing the stowing problems might mean is that the rover team may be less willing to unstow the arm and use it on passing terrain unless there is something really interesting to look at, meaning fewer stops on the way to Victoria Crater. That should please some people!

Are they still trying to stow the arm completely or in the new "safer" position above the solar panels for this longer drive?

I demand a replay!