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Potential Delta II replacement
simonbp
post Feb 21 2008, 06:30 AM
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QUOTE (Greg Hullender @ Feb 21 2008, 12:25 AM) *
So is the issue that the Falcon 9 is just too big? I didn't see an estimated price for the Taurus. What does a Delta launch cost? Is there any issue besides cost and lift capacity?


Well, we'll see how the Falcon 9 price changes between now and when it actually flies. Even still, it'll still probably end up cheaper than an EELV, though will less support than ULA would offer. In my mind, that makes it suitable for Discovery-class missions, though not necessarily ones with a larger budget.

Delta II was $50 million when Pathfinder launched, but it has gone up a lot since then...

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mps
post Feb 21 2008, 07:27 AM
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Hey, it doesn't have to be a Falcon 9 Heavy. The basic version of Falcon 9 is more realistic alternative to Delta II

Launch Site: Kwajalein Cape Canaveral AFS
Inclination: 9 degree 28.5 degree
LEO Mass to Orbit (185 km circular): 10,400 kg 9,900 kg
GTO Mass to Orbit (185 x 35,788 km): 5,070 kg 4,900 kg

A Falcon 9 (5m fairing) mission to LEO is $35M.

Falcon 9 missions to GTO are:
Satellite Vehicle Mass (kg) Price
< 3500 $35M
3500-4500 $45M
4500-5000 $55M

(source: Space X's official web site)
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djellison
post Feb 21 2008, 09:41 AM
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QUOTE (Jim from NSF.com @ Feb 21 2008, 01:51 AM) *
Aside from 4 GPS, which is leaving the Delta II, NASA is the only customer. The two STSS missions are NASA procured. (I am working one of them).


Unless there's a significant change of plans for these two customers, NASA is not the only Delta II customer between now and it's closure.

GeoEye 1 (or Orbview 5) for GeoEye ( http://www.geoeye.com/products/imagery/geoeye1/default.htm )
COSMO 3 for ASI ( http://www.telespazio.it/cosmo.html )

Totally ignoring COTS, you consider the Taurus II a Delta II replacement, but not the Falcon 9. Indeed, you are quick to dismiss the Falcon 9 entirely both here and elsewhere. Why? What is it that you know that MDA, Avanti and Bigelow do not?

Doug
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Jim from NSF.com
post Feb 21 2008, 11:44 AM
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QUOTE (djellison @ Feb 21 2008, 04:41 AM) *
Unless there's a significant change of plans for these two customers, NASA is not the only Delta II customer between now and it's closure.

GeoEye 1 (or Orbview 5) for GeoEye ( http://www.geoeye.com/products/imagery/geoeye1/default.htm )
COSMO 3 for ASI ( http://www.telespazio.it/cosmo.html )

Totally ignoring COTS, you consider the Taurus II a Delta II replacement, but not the Falcon 9. Indeed, you are quick to dismiss the Falcon 9 entirely both here and elsewhere. Why? What is it that you know that MDA, Avanti and Bigelow do not?

Doug


Those aren't firm contracts. Still are place holders.

OSC has a proven track record and Spacex doesn't. OSC has an NLS contract.

As for MDA, Avanti and Bigelow, no different than what Hughes Space did on Delta III and H-II.
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Guest_Sunspot_*
post Feb 21 2008, 11:50 AM
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Greg Hullender
post Feb 21 2008, 04:44 PM
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QUOTE (Jim from NSF.com @ Feb 21 2008, 03:44 AM) *
OSC has a proven track record and Spacex doesn't. OSC has an NLS contract.

But this is not the argument you originally presented! You said Falcon 9 couldn't replace the Delta II "because it's an EELV and priced to match."

From the info that seems to be available to the public, though, it will cost less and lift more -- assuming SpaceX can really deliver, of course.

It's okay to pour cold water on everyone's fanciful ideas -- in a place like this, someone has to -- but your feedback should be truthful. Especially when you're using NSF's name to back it up.

--Greg
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Jim from NSF.com
post Feb 21 2008, 05:41 PM
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QUOTE (Greg Hullender @ Feb 21 2008, 11:44 AM) *
But this is not the argument you originally presented! You said Falcon 9 couldn't replace the Delta II "because it's an EELV and priced to match."


Reread the post, it was in reference to the Falcon 9 "Heavy"
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tedstryk
post Feb 22 2008, 01:56 AM
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In that case, your post doesn't address what was being discussed, the Falcon 9. Frankly, the only thing that can be gleaned from your posts of late is that you have an obsession with imperative sentences, as well as declarative sentences with an implied subject.


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Jim from NSF.com
post Feb 22 2008, 02:30 AM
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QUOTE (tedstryk @ Feb 21 2008, 08:56 PM) *
In that case, your post doesn't address what was being discussed, the Falcon 9. Frankly, the only thing that can be gleaned from your posts of late is that you have an obsession with imperative sentences, as well as declarative sentences with an implied subject.



You have problem with it? I am stating nothing but fact

THIS DISCUSSION IS NOW CLOSED - ADMIN
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