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Entry Pool, Predict when Oppy will enter Victoria Crater
tuvas
post Mar 1 2007, 02:50 PM
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I'll convert my guess to the popular sol listing, say, 1140. I predict it will enter in an as-of-yet unnamed bay, probably the one it is currently approaching.
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Tesheiner
post Mar 1 2007, 03:30 PM
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Yup, that still-unnamed-bay is being considered by the MER team. See here: http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.p...ost&p=84966

I stick with my original bet. Sol 1313. wink.gif
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MarsIsImportant
post Mar 1 2007, 06:08 PM
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My prediction of 1219 is still good.

The following is an approximation of what I expect until the first egress out of the crater. I guess that there is plenty of room for error; but it is fun to speculate.

The blue lines are my proposed track for the rover. The green lines are potential side tracks. The purple ellipses highlight areas of interest. There are a lot of purple circles!!! Gee! I wonder why?

Attached Image
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antoniseb
post Mar 1 2007, 06:45 PM
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Your map is interesting, but it doesn't show the rover spending time along one of the deeper cape-bay cliffs (such as the one for Beacon). I had the impression that they wanted to study was the layers with the various upclose tools, such as brush & grinder, alpha-xray, moessbauer, etc. The interesting features you've identified are OK, but don't systematically tell the story of how this area got the way it is.
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atomoid
post Mar 1 2007, 11:23 PM
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I think MarsIsImportant (yeah that too, but in this phrase im referring to the forum poster's name) is right on for the actual entry point, its the perfect placment for exploring the steep side of the cliffs and then to come up and out through duck bay...

I liked the idea of SOL 1111 (if not only for the reason its the only sol either rover will have that has four of the same four digits while still in service (sorry im not optimistic enough to keep the Spirit until sol 2222, although i do hope i get the Opportunity to eat my words)). ..however, i get the sense there is deafinItaly a high priority on going to check out the water-modified faults over by the Soup Dragon referred to in recent papers in order to get some ground truth there. ..and they would probably want to do that before going down in the hole, since there's no guarantee there is an exit strategy that will work. so now im thinking instead of going down and in and then over to the faults afterwards, they will circumnavigate there first and come down MarsIsImportant's spot and then go back out via duck bay (simply because it appears of all the bays to have the best exposed bedrock for traction going up), but then again i havent been reading the scientists' journals so im just guessing.

..based on that i'm now committing to SOL 1234 (since its a similarly unique number)
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Oren Iishi
post Mar 1 2007, 11:50 PM
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I'm gonna throw my hat in the ring and say sol 1183. I read somewhere that the MER team wants to enter sooner rather than later.
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MarsIsImportant
post Mar 6 2007, 06:44 AM
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Well, it is very hard to say what the track of the rover will be while inside the crater. The track along the rim is fairly predictable.

I based my entry guess on several things. First, the MER team indicated that they were interested in features that were approximately 120 degrees from where Oppy reached Victoria. That indicates to me the cliffs on the North side and the dark streaks of soil above the crater's rim along the same stretch are priority. They are not going to go into the crater until those features are investigated. That tells me entry will be after Oppy passes over them. Second, the cliffs on the North side cannot easily be investigated from the rim like they already have for the ones near 'beacon'. They must go into the crater for these particular ones. Third, they cannot investigate the top of the North rim, if they go in near where Oppy currently is--Oppy might not be able to get out. Fourth, the MER team recently indicated that they were also interested in features near what we call "Soup Dragon", including some fault like structures. But, close inspection by Oppy for those seem to be secondary to the North cliff area. Fifth, the tilt for Oppy would be better for power reasons along the North East and East part of the crater. Sixth, the team wants to get into the crater ASAP--we don't know how long Oppy will last. Seventh, Oppy under current conditions would likely be able to get out of the crater along many bays of the Eastern edge of Victoria; yet, a wheel could go bad at anytime and Oppy could be disabled like Spirit currently is. Then, an egress out of the crater would become impossible. Eighth, if Oppy does get out of the Crater, then it can always reenter. A second entry would be best when considering investigation of the cliffs near 'beacon' from inside the crater. There is less risk at that point if Oppy gets disabled, since much of the mission to Victoria would already be complete. So a second entry for that area instead would have the greatest chance of the most complete mission success in investigating Victoria. It's likely that Oppy will die inside the crater near the Beacon cliffs for a number of reasons. But once the rest of the crater is toured, then the risk of reentry on the northwestern side and investigation of those cliffs would be VERY worth the effort. There is no guarantee that Oppy can make it back to Duck Bay from within the crater. The sand, dust, and tilt would be major obstacles. Movement along the rim will be less risky for the wheels. Once it gets back to Duck Bay, movement for Oppy will be less critical. So, the tilt problem won't be too restricting because Oppy will already be in an extended mission phase to Victoria. If it dies, then it dies. We will still have a lot of data for the entire crater.

By all means, the investigation of the Beacon cliffs are absolutely necessary. But, that is exactly what the MER team has already been doing from along the rim ever since it arrived at Victoria. Working within the crater along those particular cliffs would only be a significant bonus beyond the data that we already have, not critical.

I'm not part of the MER team, so they could easily view things differently. I'm just giving my 2 cents worth. I hope it makes some kind of sense.
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kenny
post Mar 6 2007, 08:07 AM
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Following the Portugese Historical Method of predicting Martian activity, I go for Sol 1314 - a great year for Scotland.

Scotland finally beats England...

Kenny
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ustrax
post Mar 6 2007, 09:33 AM
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QUOTE (kenny @ Mar 6 2007, 08:07 AM) *
I go for Sol 1314 - a great year for Scotland.


And for all discoverers... smile.gif


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um3k
post Mar 6 2007, 02:13 PM
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I'll claim my stake (or whatever) in sol 1280--a decent screen resolution. biggrin.gif
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centsworth_II
post Mar 6 2007, 03:48 PM
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My pick: 1299

I think they will go all the way to the potentially water-altered
fractures by Soup Dragon but take less time getting there than
the first half of the Duck Bay to Soup Dragon trip took. Then,
time for investigating the fractures and getting back to the
ingress point (wherever that is).

When they enter, I see the same situation as the approach to
Burns Cliff. Opportunity will slowly descend along the side of
a cape, investigating the layers and testing the footing along
the way. If the footing remains secure as the tip of the Cape
is reached, Opportunity may round it, but if the slope becomes
too steep or slippery, Opportunity will back out and reenter in
another bay. Or perhaps cross the bay it is in to the adjacent
Cape.

OK, all together now. "Well, duh!"
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imipak
post Mar 7 2007, 07:46 PM
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I'm still waiting for someone to point out either:

i. the rovers can navigate slopes greater than 18 degrees (I picked that figure up somewhere fairly authoritative I think - the JPL site?)

ii. that there's a slope on one of the bays of less than 18 degrees.

I know I must be wrong, because they're definitely planning to enter at some point... anyone feel up to administering the cluestick, and explaining which bit is wrong? OK, the images are foreshortened and distort the actual angle between the anulus and the chamfered ramp -- but surely those slopes are 30-35 degrees, at least, even at the shallowest point right at the rim.

(Whilst I'm at it -- I also don't think Oppy will be able to break out a bay and round a cape to the next one -- not only are the slopes too steep, the ground is deep, deep sand, a tar-pit for rovers if ever there was one. )


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djellison
post Mar 7 2007, 08:42 PM
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30 degrees is about the best they can manage, and I would think all the slopes on the SE quadrant of the crater are less than that - and indeed some of the bays we've already seen, Duck/Bottomless etc are there or there abouts.

Doug
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tuvas
post Mar 7 2007, 08:58 PM
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QUOTE (imipak @ Mar 7 2007, 12:46 PM) *
I know I must be wrong, because they're definitely planning to enter at some point... anyone feel up to administering the cluestick, and explaining which bit is wrong? OK, the images are foreshortened and distort the actual angle between the anulus and the chamfered ramp -- but surely those slopes are 30-35 degrees, at least, even at the shallowest point right at the rim.


I think the slopes at Duck Bay are about 20 degrees, or slightly less. There's another point on the far rim with a comparable slope. 30 degrees is managable to decend always, getting out however isn't always possible at that slope (It depends on the material beneath the rover, rocks would allow it to leave, sand wouldn't.)
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centsworth_II
post Mar 7 2007, 09:42 PM
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QUOTE (imipak @ Mar 7 2007, 02:46 PM) *
I'm still waiting for someone to point out ...

i. the rovers can navigate slopes greater than 18 degrees ...


Opportunity updates from July 1 and 7, 2004 discuss the rover's manuvers
on slopes greater that 25 degrees while desending into Endurance crater.
Other posts also discuss driving on slopes between 20 and 30 degrees.
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