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Entry Pool, Predict when Oppy will enter Victoria Crater
dvandorn
post Mar 8 2007, 02:12 AM
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Do we know what effect (if any) Oppy's broken steering actuator on that one front wheel has on her ability to drive up and down slopes?

-the other Doug


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edstrick
post Mar 8 2007, 09:22 AM
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My impression is that the angle of the front wheel should have pretty minimal effect on the slope climbing ability. If the wheel was canted 45 deg or more, then it would be significant to about as bad as the dead wheel on Spirit (for 60 to 90 deg)

I still don't like the "entry pool" phrase.. I keep getting this mental imagery of "GLUB! GLUB!"
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imipak
post Mar 9 2007, 10:24 PM
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Thanks everyone for clearing that one up! 30 degrees it is.


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alan
post May 2 2007, 09:53 PM
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Guesses so far in entry pool

1038 Floyd
1103 Ant103
1111 Nirgal
1111 atomoid
1122 climber
1139 ustrax
1140 tuvas
1143 imipak
1147 Bobby
1151 MahFL
1170 jamescanvin
1181 alan
1183 Oren Iishi
1192 Edward Schmitz
1200 Rakhir
1205 BrianL
1210 antioniseb
1219 MarsIsImportant
1224 Dfinrock
1234 PhilCo126
1235 dilo
1242 MizarKey
1244 bergadder
1255 Pavel
1270 AndyG
1280 um3k
1285 sattrackpro
1299 centsworth II
1305 pch
1313 Tesheiner
1314 kenny
1365 ToSeek
1395 micvoo
1425 Myran
1500 FIN Mars
1544 leustek
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leustek
post May 4 2007, 08:40 PM
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Would anyone mind if I picked a new entry pool date?

My earlier pick was when I was hoping beyond all hope that Duck Bay would be approached by way of the far side.

Unless someone objects, I'll change to sol 1266.

Instead of "GLUB! GLUB!" I imagine easing into a relaxing jacuzzi with a cool drink in hand cool.gif . Lets not focus on possible negative outcomes. There is nothing we can do about it anyway.
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MarsIsImportant
post May 4 2007, 09:19 PM
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I don't think changing the entry date guess is fair this late in the game, at least officially. It is especially unfair to those who picked very early and are near correct, including me. We now know exactly where Opportunity will ingress, and the rover is currently 'high tailing it' to that point of entry. In fact, I think the pool should be closed to official guesses. However, I have no problem with discussing changed opinions. Just keep in mind that your first guess should be the official one.
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Guest_Edward Schmitz_*
post May 4 2007, 09:28 PM
Post #67





Guests






Well, I don't know about anyone else, but I'm happy with my original guess!
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MarsIsImportant
post May 4 2007, 09:41 PM
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Yes Edward. If there are not very many delays, then you look to be in the 'cat bird seat'. Realistically, there appears to be somewhere between 8 and 12 people still well within the range of probability. And you so happen to be right in the middle. My guess is still within range too, but it is on the long side.
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MarsIsImportant
post May 4 2007, 10:10 PM
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Has it been determined what constitutes an actually ingress?

There is a big difference between a toe dip and an ingress. I think all six wheels down the slope should be considered an ingress. But what criteria determines the slope of the actual crater? These are questions that need to be answered soon.

Regardless, anybody that picked the toe dip 'Sol' should get an honorable mention.
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MarsIsImportant
post May 4 2007, 10:23 PM
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Maybe, the pool should be divided into two?

We could have the BKEP (before known entry point ) section and the AKEP (after known entry point) section. The BKEP is naturally far superior, but the AKEP would give those who 'missed the boat' another shot at a quality guess. Of course, the AKEP should be opened up to all those who made guesses in the BKEP too.
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tuvas
post May 4 2007, 11:20 PM
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QUOTE (MarsIsImportant @ May 4 2007, 03:10 PM) *
Has it been determined what constitutes an actually ingress?


As for me, I'd vote just leaving to when the press release states that it entered, I'm sure there will be some kind of a press release when it finally happens.
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alan
post May 5 2007, 12:44 AM
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I see where this is going. We will end up with a page full of posts splitting hairs over a definintion of entry to determine who wins a pool with no prize.

Being one of the moderators I'm doing what I should have done when I dug up this thread: Closing it. Since leustek's new guess is already posted and is 100 sols away I'll let it stand.

Doug, not being in the pool can define what is the the definition of entry.

Thread closed.

(I agree with this - these threads are silly anyway, and having people changing all their numbers because they get it 'wrong' is sillier still. - Doug )
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climber
post Jul 17 2007, 07:13 PM
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QUOTE (alan @ May 2 2007, 11:53 PM) *
Guesses so far in entry pool

1038 Floyd
1103 Ant103
1111 Nirgal
1111 atomoid
1122 climber
1139 ustrax
1140 tuvas
1143 imipak
1147 Bobby
1151 MahFL
1170 jamescanvin
1181 alan
1183 Oren Iishi
1192 Edward Schmitz
1200 Rakhir
1205 BrianL
1210 antioniseb
1219 MarsIsImportant
1224 Dfinrock
1234 PhilCo126
1235 dilo

1242 MizarKey
1244 bergadder
1255 Pavel
1270 AndyG
1280 um3k
1285 sattrackpro
1299 centsworth II
1305 pch
1313 Tesheiner
1314 kenny
1365 ToSeek
1395 micvoo
1425 Myran
1500 FIN Mars
1544 leustek

Here are the still possible winners.
I hope we'll stay in the 1200's !


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kenny
post Aug 14 2007, 11:26 AM
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It's now Sol 1264, so MizarKey, bergadder and Pavel bite the dust.... and AndyG is heading the same way.
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AndyG
post Aug 14 2007, 01:58 PM
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And I thought I was being improbably pessimistic, in order to convince the Norns to beat me. sad.gif

Andy
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