2014 MU69 "Ultima Thule" flyby, For discussion of the encounter as it happens |
2014 MU69 "Ultima Thule" flyby, For discussion of the encounter as it happens |
Dec 13 2018, 10:12 PM
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#1
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Administrator Group: Admin Posts: 5172 Joined: 4-August 05 From: Pasadena, CA, USA, Earth Member No.: 454 |
It's only 10 days now until the "Core" phase of the 2014 MU69 flyby begins! I thought it was time for a new thread. Carry on discussing distant observations of other KBO worlds in the KBO encounters thread, and use this one for MU69 until after the departure phase is officially over on 8 January.
I'll be posting a "What to Expect" article next week. -------------------- My website - My Patreon - @elakdawalla on Twitter - Please support unmannedspaceflight.com by donating here.
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Guest_Steve5304_* |
Dec 15 2018, 10:54 PM
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#2
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Guests |
How longafter flyby will we get the first image or hint of success?
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Dec 16 2018, 12:11 AM
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2090 Joined: 13-February 10 From: Ontario Member No.: 5221 |
Nice overview at the bottom of this post: http://www.planetary.org/blogs/jason-davis...ut-100days.html
QUOTE Then, there won't be much to do but wait and hope that things go according to plan. Around 10:00 a.m. EST on Jan. 1, the team expects to get a health and safety report from New Horizons letting them know it survived the encounter. The first up-close images of Ultima Thule are expected to arrive on Earth between 6:00 and 8:00 p.m. EST Jan. 1 (22:00 on Jan. 1 and 00:00 on Jan. 2 UTC), a NASA spokesperson said.
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Dec 16 2018, 02:10 AM
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#4
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
One thing I'm curious about is the anticipated total data acquisition as well as the time that will be required to downlink it at this greater distance. Obviously there won't be nearly as much data as there was from Pluto just because UT is pretty tiny and the near encounter hi-res phase will thus be exceedingly brief, but as with the Pluto encounter I wonder if they're gonna have an expected recorder space used message as part of the survival confirmation message.
-------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Dec 16 2018, 03:24 AM
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#5
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Member Group: Members Posts: 529 Joined: 19-February 05 Member No.: 173 |
On thing I'm curious about is the anticipated total data acquisition as well as the time that will be required to downlink it at this greater distance. Obviously there won't be nearly as much data as there was from Pluto just because UT is pretty tiny and the near encounter hi-res phase will thus be exceedingly brief, but as with the Pluto encounter I wonder if they're gonna have an expected recorder space used message as part of the survival confirmation message. Actually the total data volume taken and stored on the recorders is very close to the same as at Pluto; downloading it all will take 20 months. Through Aug-Sep, 2020. |
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Dec 16 2018, 04:40 AM
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#6
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
Really! Delighted to be wrong, then. Thank you, Alan!
So there will be an 'expected volume acquired' ping post-flyby as well, then? That was a big moment at Pluto. -------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Dec 24 2018, 06:44 PM
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#7
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2090 Joined: 13-February 10 From: Ontario Member No.: 5221 |
And we have our first mystery: No light curve!
http://pluto.jhuapl.edu/News-Center/News-A...p?page=20181220 |
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Dec 24 2018, 07:09 PM
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#8
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 4252 Joined: 17-January 05 Member No.: 152 |
What about a very slow rotation rate? I didn't see anything about what interval the light curve was taken over. Presumably the lightcurve would look flat if the rotation period was significantly longer than the interval the lightcurve was measured over.
I don't know whether there may be expectations that these objects rotate faster than some rate - if so, that could explain the surprize. |
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Dec 24 2018, 10:30 PM
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#9
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Member Group: Members Posts: 529 Joined: 19-February 05 Member No.: 173 |
What about a very slow rotation rate? I didn't see anything about what interval the light curve was taken over. Presumably the lightcurve would look flat if the rotation period was significantly longer than the interval the lightcurve was measured over. I don't know whether there may be expectations that these objects rotate faster than some rate - if so, that could explain the surprise. We have photometry from HST stretching over years and on NH we have been making measurements routinely since September; since later November the SNRs have been quite good. We're looking for periods ranging from ridiculously long (weeks) to ridiculously short (2 hours). Nothing firm yet. |
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Dec 25 2018, 05:23 AM
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#10
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Junior Member Group: Members Posts: 98 Joined: 29-July 05 From: Amsterdam, NL Member No.: 448 |
Very curious for better resolution on the shape of the object, if it’s a dumbbell, a binary or something more conventional. The occultation data was certainly curious. Best to the amazing NH team in the coming weeks.
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Dec 25 2018, 04:18 PM
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#11
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1645 Joined: 5-March 05 From: Boulder, CO Member No.: 184 |
I wonder how much difference there is in the Ultima Thule viewing angles presently from New Horizons and the from Earth perspective informing the occultation data? Consideration of this may help constrain a 3-D shape model (and light curve interpretation). The answer to this is a modest about 11 degree difference, since Emily's article mentions an 11 degree phase angle from NH and we can assume a near zero phase angle from Earth.
http://www.planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakda...tima-thule.html -------------------- Steve [ my home page and planetary maps page ]
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Dec 26 2018, 06:36 PM
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#12
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2090 Joined: 13-February 10 From: Ontario Member No.: 5221 |
Nice interview on Planetary Radio, some very good details: http://www.planetary.org/multimedia/planet...w-horizons.html
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Dec 27 2018, 06:15 PM
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#13
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Newbie Group: Members Posts: 17 Joined: 25-December 18 Member No.: 8512 |
Very good Engineering Colloquia presentation by Marc Buie at Space Telescope Science Institute on the challenges re. discovery and tracking of MU69, and of the encounter itself:
https://webcast.stsci.edu/webcast/detail.xh...47&parent=1 |
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Dec 28 2018, 01:37 AM
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#14
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
Emily has posted a new article providing links to flyby coverage.
ADMIN NOTE: There will likely be no NASA TV or other NASA media coverage of the event due to the partial government shutdown in the United States at this time. All members are reminded to please read and heed rule 1.2. We have to acknowledge this fact, but we will not discuss or debate it. The Forum is politics-free, and it will stay that way. Thanks! -------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Dec 28 2018, 02:45 AM
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#15
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2090 Joined: 13-February 10 From: Ontario Member No.: 5221 |
Based on the Administrator's recent tweet, and this observation by Keith Cowing, I think there might be something on NASA TV after all. The last few shutdowns had no major space events happening, so my guess is that some arrangement must have been made behind the scenes. We'll see if there is actually a briefing tomorrow...
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Dec 28 2018, 04:09 AM
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#16
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
That would certainly be a most welcome development if it happens; thanks!
In the meantime...UMSF itself is of course a project of The Planetary Society, and we are a part of their education and public outreach efforts. Accordingly, I would encourage all to share any information sources concerning the flyby you can not just here but on your other social media platforms. Above all else save the success of the flyby itself, it is vitally important that as many people as possible are made aware of this historic event and are afforded the opportunity to witness it. The NH team also should know that they are far from forgotten, and we are all working to spread the word of their work to the world. It's on. And we, as in each of us, will be a part of making it happen. GO NEW HORIZONS!!!! -------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Dec 28 2018, 06:04 AM
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#17
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Forum Contributor Group: Members Posts: 1372 Joined: 8-February 04 From: North East Florida, USA. Member No.: 11 |
Not sure if everyone knows but NASA Eyes does have a MU69 flyby preview and a current live view.
https://eyes.nasa.gov/ |
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Dec 28 2018, 07:02 AM
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#18
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2530 Joined: 20-April 05 Member No.: 321 |
Before this flyby takes place, I feel a surge of wonderful curiosity about what we will see. The oldest books about the solar system I read as a kid speculated what the surface of the Moon would look like, and similarly had art depicting imagined landscapes of Mars, Mercury, Venus, Titan, and more. I remember the first Viking photos of Phobos and the supposition (not inaccurate) that asteroids would be similar. Pluto most recently brought us unconstrained surprise.
And now we're seeing yet another new kind of world, and this may not happen many more times (constrain that as you will: this century, in any given person's lifetime, or ever). And we just do not know what we'll see. Will it look like a main belt asteroid, but of nitrogen? Strangely eroded? Shaped by electrostatic forces? A globular cluster of pellets slowly orbiting a center? We do not know! There'll be some wonderful moments ahead, and it may be that nothing is as fun as the anticipation. Anticipate away! |
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Dec 28 2018, 07:37 AM
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#19
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
Undoubtedly. It is a remarkable privilege to be the first of all the humans that ever have lived to see an entirely new type of world for the very first time up close...to say nothing of the fact that KBOs/TNOs were only theoretical concepts until perhaps 40 years ago with the discovery of Chiron.
We already have one mystery: Why no light curve? Unless NH is flying nearly parallel to UT's rotation axis and/or it just doesn't have any significant albedo variations at all that's a real head-scratcher; other KBOs definitely have them. -------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Dec 28 2018, 08:41 AM
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#20
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Forum Contributor Group: Members Posts: 1372 Joined: 8-February 04 From: North East Florida, USA. Member No.: 11 |
2.9m miles now...
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Dec 28 2018, 03:50 PM
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#21
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
BREAKING: Alan Stern now reporting that NASA social media and NASA TV will indeed cover flyby activities.
-------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Dec 28 2018, 05:26 PM
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#22
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Junior Member Group: Members Posts: 68 Joined: 27-March 15 Member No.: 7426 |
Perhaps Ultima Thule's lack of a normal light curve means that it's rotating extremely slowly, so slowly that its aspect hasn't changed appreciably since we've had it under observation. Perhaps it's not rotating at all.
Then again, assuming the object is binary in form, perhaps the object's outer-facing hemispheres are lighter in color than those facing each other. This might provide a steady light as it rotates. The light level could be enhanced when less surface area is presented to our view, and detracted from when both lobes are in fuel view. Judging by the shape model derived from stellar occultation, the two lobes appear to be very close to one another, and to partially overlap, from our point of view. |
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Dec 28 2018, 05:57 PM
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#23
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 4252 Joined: 17-January 05 Member No.: 152 |
Check this post from Stern where he addresses slow rotation.
For sure a cancellation between shape and albedo markings could be to blame, but it does seem unlikely. Another point is that S/N isn't infinite, so all they can say is that the lightcurve is consistent with flat to some % level, and we don't know what that level is (of course it's decreasing as we approach). |
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Dec 28 2018, 06:07 PM
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#24
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
Slow rotation in itself would be a fascinating find. Most of the asteroids in the inner system we've visited seem to have rotation periods in single-digit hours.
If this turns out to be true then gotta wonder if UT might be completely pristine, as in virtually no impacts or outgassing throughout its history. Alternatively, if it is a contact binary then how was the system's angular momentum dissipated so much? -------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Dec 28 2018, 06:13 PM
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#25
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1645 Joined: 5-March 05 From: Boulder, CO Member No.: 184 |
NASA TV Briefing on now...
-------------------- Steve [ my home page and planetary maps page ]
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Dec 28 2018, 07:10 PM
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#26
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Newbie Group: Members Posts: 11 Joined: 30-May 08 Member No.: 4166 |
On where? I can't find a live stream from any of Emily's links.
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Dec 28 2018, 07:39 PM
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#27
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Administrator Group: Admin Posts: 5172 Joined: 4-August 05 From: Pasadena, CA, USA, Earth Member No.: 454 |
Sorry about that. I did my best with the information provided, but it turned out not to be accurate. Here is a partial recording of today's briefing but it's only 19 minutes' worth -- if anyone finds a full recording, please share it here! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5BNOo4LJmM
-------------------- My website - My Patreon - @elakdawalla on Twitter - Please support unmannedspaceflight.com by donating here.
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Dec 28 2018, 09:55 PM
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#28
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1645 Joined: 5-March 05 From: Boulder, CO Member No.: 184 |
Looks like a full 30min recording here, now posted on the jhuapl site & YouTube channel.
Next briefing Dec 31 2pm EST. -------------------- Steve [ my home page and planetary maps page ]
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Dec 29 2018, 03:54 AM
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#29
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Member Group: Members Posts: 808 Joined: 10-October 06 From: Maynard Mass USA Member No.: 1241 |
We have seen several artist's interpretations of MU69 ... a contact binary ... an orbiting binary...
Here is a computer program's interpretation of MU69 ... a programmed hallucination ... but based on inputs of Vesta, Phobos, and the Lorri image released a few days ago (which was 10x if I am not mistaken but was used to constrain the program's output). The program crunched the data for 17 minutes and came up with the image below. This is what MU69 might look like from Lorri at about 50K km away... or probably not. for your enjoyment only... -------------------- CLA CLL
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Dec 29 2018, 04:31 AM
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#30
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2090 Joined: 13-February 10 From: Ontario Member No.: 5221 |
Well, we'll see next week how accurate that is!
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Dec 29 2018, 10:20 AM
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#31
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Member Group: Members Posts: 214 Joined: 30-December 05 Member No.: 628 |
PDP8E, in the same spirit, I predict that the soon-to-be-revealed observations will bear "some" but "not too much" resemblance to your model image.
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Dec 29 2018, 05:13 PM
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#32
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Forum Contributor Group: Members Posts: 1372 Joined: 8-February 04 From: North East Florida, USA. Member No.: 11 |
1.9m miles now.
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Dec 29 2018, 05:55 PM
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#33
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Member Group: Members Posts: 655 Joined: 22-January 06 Member No.: 655 |
Were this the Saturn system, we'd be within Iapetus' orbit now...
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Dec 29 2018, 10:29 PM
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#34
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Junior Member Group: Members Posts: 24 Joined: 11-February 07 From: College Station, TX Member No.: 1709 |
Interesting tweet from Alan... perhaps they have resolved Ultima Thule?
https://twitter.com/alanstern/status/1079111629604831233 |
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Dec 30 2018, 12:12 AM
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#35
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Forum Contributor Group: Members Posts: 1372 Joined: 8-February 04 From: North East Florida, USA. Member No.: 11 |
Interesting tweet from Alan... perhaps they have resolved Ultima Thule? https://twitter.com/alanstern/status/1079111629604831233 It seems to be something, but they are still too far out to resolve anything, except maybe if it's a binary or not ? Also according to Emily's posted schedule no pics are due to be downloaded today. |
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Dec 30 2018, 12:54 AM
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#36
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Member Group: Members Posts: 529 Joined: 19-February 05 Member No.: 173 |
It seems to be something, but they are still too far out to resolve anything, except maybe if it's a binary or not ? Also according to Emily's posted schedule no pics are due to be downloaded today. Emily's article is about scirct science data. But all data are useful for science, even OpNav images..... |
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Dec 30 2018, 02:18 PM
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#37
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Member Group: Members Posts: 126 Joined: 20-April 05 Member No.: 291 |
Emily's article is about scirct science data. But all data are useful for science, even OpNav images..... Squinting at where the wand is pointing in your twitter post, I'd say LORRI has resolved Ultima Thule into multiple pixels, right on schedule! I guess all will be revealed soon enough |
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Dec 30 2018, 03:24 PM
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#38
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 4252 Joined: 17-January 05 Member No.: 152 |
I don't think he can see where he's pointing.
There appears to be a vaguely ringlike structure about the centre of that image (and darkness at the very centre). My guess: they've subtracted a point-source model (PSF) from the image where MU69 is predicted to be and see a residual around it, which would suggest it's starting to be resolved. |
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Dec 30 2018, 04:49 PM
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#39
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Member Group: Members Posts: 701 Joined: 3-December 04 From: Boulder, Colorado, USA Member No.: 117 |
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Dec 30 2018, 05:15 PM
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#40
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
Thanks, John. I assume that the fact that UT is near the center of the frame is a very good indication of nav accuracy...?
-------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Dec 30 2018, 06:58 PM
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#41
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
Spaceflight Now is going to live-blog the encounter in real time from JHAPL.
-------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Dec 30 2018, 09:11 PM
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#42
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Member Group: Members Posts: 890 Joined: 18-November 08 Member No.: 4489 |
artist's concept
do to software constraints a render of UltimaThule as a SPHERE ( this is basically my default KBO generator using Blender ) we will see in a few days , then something much closer to the real thing PS. dose anyone know of a naif spice kernel for New Horizon for the fly-by. The last kernel ( nh_pred_alleph_od124.bsp ) has a end date of September 2018 |
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Dec 30 2018, 09:52 PM
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#43
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
Alan just reported on FB that they finished their last nav meeting a few minutes ago, so possible that there might be a REAL fresh one available soon.
-------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Dec 30 2018, 10:25 PM
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#44
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IMG to PNG GOD Group: Moderator Posts: 2251 Joined: 19-February 04 From: Near fire and ice Member No.: 38 |
Interesting tidbit in the Spaceflight Now live-blog from Hal Weaver, there are some hints that Ultima Thule is a quickly-rotating object.
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Dec 30 2018, 10:56 PM
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#45
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Junior Member Group: Members Posts: 77 Joined: 27-June 04 From: Queensland Australia Member No.: 90 |
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Dec 30 2018, 11:29 PM
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#46
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IMG to PNG GOD Group: Moderator Posts: 2251 Joined: 19-February 04 From: Near fire and ice Member No.: 38 |
Could that explain the lack of light curve? (temporal resolution constraints) I doubt it - some of the light curve observations probably include images taken with a short time interval between the images and probably also a variable interval. But if it turns out that UT really us a quickly rotating object that must be good news since it means NH will be able to observe a bigger part of UT's surface. |
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Dec 31 2018, 12:02 AM
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#47
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Forum Contributor Group: Members Posts: 1372 Joined: 8-February 04 From: North East Florida, USA. Member No.: 11 |
0.9m miles now.
Failsafe 1 images download starts at 8:31 pm EST. |
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Dec 31 2018, 12:12 AM
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#48
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Junior Member Group: Members Posts: 68 Joined: 27-March 15 Member No.: 7426 |
How fast would Ultima Thule have to be spinning, I wonder, so that the light curve would be smeared out into one consistent light level?
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Dec 31 2018, 01:37 AM
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#49
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1443 Joined: 26-July 08 Member No.: 4270 |
It doesn't appear to be a binary object from this image.
(Processed by Daniel Bamberger (stacked, deconvoluted, enlarged)). -------------------- -- Hungry4info (Sirius_Alpha)
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Dec 31 2018, 03:16 AM
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#50
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2090 Joined: 13-February 10 From: Ontario Member No.: 5221 |
DSN Now shows 1.06 kb/ sec download! This is 'Failsafe 1', right?
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Dec 31 2018, 03:30 AM
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#51
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Forum Contributor Group: Members Posts: 1372 Joined: 8-February 04 From: North East Florida, USA. Member No.: 11 |
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Dec 31 2018, 04:58 AM
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#52
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Newbie Group: Members Posts: 17 Joined: 25-December 18 Member No.: 8512 |
DSN communication seems to have stopped at 04:43UTC, with several bounces lasting until ~04:47 when the signal dropped.
With the exception of a weird signal drop at ~04:26UTC, signal strength was fairly steady at ~ -147 to -148.5 dBm throughout, indicating good tracking at Canberra and stable pointing by the spacecraft - a good sign... |
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Dec 31 2018, 05:18 AM
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#53
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
Remember that DSN Now is not an authoritative source to determine what's going on with any given spacecraft. See this post re the Opportunity listening campaign.
It's definitely cool, but anything but official. -------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Dec 31 2018, 06:32 AM
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#54
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Member Group: Members Posts: 159 Joined: 4-March 06 Member No.: 694 |
Closest approach is just under 24 hours away. In fact, as of right now it is 23 hours and 1 minute to go.
-------------------- I call heaven and earth to witness against you this day, that I have set before thee life and death, the blessing and the curse; therefore choose life, that thou mayest live, thou and thy seed.
- Opening line from episode 13 of "Cosmos" |
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Dec 31 2018, 07:04 AM
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#55
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2173 Joined: 28-December 04 From: Florida, USA Member No.: 132 |
Interesting tidbit in the Spaceflight Now live-blog from Hal Weaver, there are some hints that Ultima Thule is a quickly-rotating object. From Alan Stern's post #9 in this thread:"We're looking for periods ranging from ridiculously long (weeks) to ridiculously short (2 hours). Nothing firm yet." |
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Dec 31 2018, 08:33 AM
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#56
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
How fast would Ultima Thule have to be spinning, I wonder, so that the light curve would be smeared out into one consistent light level? That's an excellent question. I suppose it would depend on how continuous the dataset was above all else and the rate of sample acquisition; would think that there would also have to virtually no detectable albedo variations at any distance much beyond where NH is right now, which is maybe not too much of a stretch for such a small (and likely primeval) object. We should hopefully know well before C/A, though. That image Hungry put up looks SORTA maybe kinda oblong if nothing else, so it oughta spin around in a noticeable fashion. -------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Dec 31 2018, 10:59 AM
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#57
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Member Group: Members Posts: 112 Joined: 20-August 12 From: Spain Member No.: 6597 |
According to spanish newspaper "Publico", New Horizons is due to land in Ultima Thule tomorrow and also states that was launched in 1996. We've been trying all the morning to get that text updated, but seems impossible. Don't know where they've got all this information.
Anyway, there is a lot of expectation in spanish social media about the flyby, and that is really nice. Good luck for the team!. |
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Dec 31 2018, 11:13 AM
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#58
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2922 Joined: 14-February 06 From: Very close to the Pyrénées Mountains (France) Member No.: 682 |
According to spanish newspaper "Publico", New Horizons is due to land in Ultima Thule tomorrow and also states that was launched in 1996. We've been trying all the morning to get that text updated, but seems impossible. Don't know where they've got all this information. Anyway, there is a lot of expectation in spanish social media about the flyby, and that is really nice. Good luck for the team!. Neither they’ve heard of the Voyagers and Pioneer 10&11th.... -------------------- |
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Dec 31 2018, 02:43 PM
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#59
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1645 Joined: 5-March 05 From: Boulder, CO Member No.: 184 |
It doesn't appear to be a binary object from this image. (Processed by Daniel Bamberger (stacked, deconvoluted, enlarged)). Interesting to see this result from the deconvolution (deconvolving?), since a number of the neighboring stars appeared to have an L shaped appearance in the raw images. -------------------- Steve [ my home page and planetary maps page ]
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Dec 31 2018, 05:37 PM
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#60
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Forum Contributor Group: Members Posts: 1372 Joined: 8-February 04 From: North East Florida, USA. Member No.: 11 |
Failsafe 2 should be downloading now.
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Dec 31 2018, 05:49 PM
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#61
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1645 Joined: 5-March 05 From: Boulder, CO Member No.: 184 |
DSN Now (unofficially) indicates the downlink at 500b/sec from Goldstone.
-------------------- Steve [ my home page and planetary maps page ]
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Dec 31 2018, 06:40 PM
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#62
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
Fingers crossed that the latest data gives some solid indication of UT's shape and consequently its rotation state.
-------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Dec 31 2018, 07:02 PM
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#63
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1443 Joined: 26-July 08 Member No.: 4270 |
Press conference has started.
-------------------- -- Hungry4info (Sirius_Alpha)
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Dec 31 2018, 07:23 PM
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#64
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
It's apparently indeed oblong, at least!
-------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Dec 31 2018, 07:24 PM
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#65
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2090 Joined: 13-February 10 From: Ontario Member No.: 5221 |
John Spencer confirms: elongated blob!
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Dec 31 2018, 07:24 PM
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#66
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1443 Joined: 26-July 08 Member No.: 4270 |
-------------------- -- Hungry4info (Sirius_Alpha)
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Dec 31 2018, 07:41 PM
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#67
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
And STILL no apparent light curve.
-------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Dec 31 2018, 07:50 PM
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#68
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Member Group: Members Posts: 126 Joined: 20-April 05 Member No.: 291 |
Now that its shape is apparent, are there explanations left besides it tumbling so slowly that its not apparent in images?
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Dec 31 2018, 07:53 PM
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#69
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Member Group: Members Posts: 715 Joined: 3-January 08 Member No.: 3995 |
I wonder if it could be a relatively smooth oblate ellipsoid rotating around the short axis? That could mask a rotation rate until details become resolved.
Here’s hoping for the unexpected... |
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Dec 31 2018, 07:53 PM
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#70
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1645 Joined: 5-March 05 From: Boulder, CO Member No.: 184 |
Has the elongation (possible fainter lobe) rotated ~180 degrees relative to the previous image 15 hours earlier? This (together with an absent light curve) would be consistent with a rotation axis aligned with the viewing direction.
NASA TV New Horizons Q&A is to begin shortly at 2015 UTC. -------------------- Steve [ my home page and planetary maps page ]
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Dec 31 2018, 08:11 PM
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#71
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Member Group: Members Posts: 120 Joined: 26-May 15 From: Rome - Italy Member No.: 7482 |
ok. . Binary system is excluse?
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Dec 31 2018, 08:19 PM
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#72
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
No, still possible that it is a binary. Resolution is not yet good enough to determine one way or another.
-------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Dec 31 2018, 09:38 PM
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#73
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2530 Joined: 20-April 05 Member No.: 321 |
In the absence of any other forces, could solar radiation have halted its rotation in the orientation that presents the least "pressure"? That would indeed be a wacky possibility, but the Yarkovsky effect sounds wacky at first, too.
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Dec 31 2018, 09:47 PM
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#74
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Newbie Group: Members Posts: 17 Joined: 25-December 18 Member No.: 8512 |
Again, a completely "unofficial" indication from DSN NOW:
The download signal from New Horizons seems to have dropped at approximately 21:03UTC. Again, the indicated signal strength was fairly stable throughout at about -147 to -149 dBm. Almost simultaneously, antenna DSN26 at Goldstone began transmitting a very strong (79kW) signal directly toward MU69 and New Horizons -- presumably for the radio science experiment when that signal arrives hours later. And meanwhile, it appears that all four antennas at Canberra are all aligned and arrayed and tracking New Horizons as it climbs above the Earth's horizon. I know that DSN Now is not in any way definitive (and can be misleading), but these folks are actively involved in this endeavor. They never get to be up on the platforms at news conferences, but they are crucial. And fun to watch. |
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Dec 31 2018, 09:51 PM
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#75
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2090 Joined: 13-February 10 From: Ontario Member No.: 5221 |
In the absence of any other forces, could solar radiation have halted its rotation in the orientation that presents the least "pressure"? That would indeed be a wacky possibility, but the Yarkovsky effect sounds wacky at first, too. That far out from the Sun, I doubt that there's any significant pressure from light, at least for a natural object. We don't know of any slow rotaters beyond the Trojans. Though given 4.5 billion years, many things are possible.... |
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Dec 31 2018, 10:44 PM
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#76
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
If it is indeed a slow rotator AND it's binary/contact binary that's even more puzzling just from a conservation of momentum standpoint. Would have had to have been an extremely low-velocity capture indeed and one or both of them had to be barely rotating in the first place.
I suppose it's possible that there were one or more encounters with or impacts by other objects at some point in the distant past that hit all the various vectors just right to create this hypothetical binary, but it is very empty way out there, not like the inner system at all. Not really buying that scenario. -------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Dec 31 2018, 10:52 PM
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#77
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1645 Joined: 5-March 05 From: Boulder, CO Member No.: 184 |
If it's a (non-contact) binary we'd be referring to a slow orbital revolution rather than rotation. My odds would favor a peanut shaped single object, like Halley or Borelli. This would mean a sizeable neck if it is a contact binary. At least so far there hasn't been any hint of a saddle point or minimum of pixel intensity between the two "lobes".
-------------------- Steve [ my home page and planetary maps page ]
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Dec 31 2018, 10:57 PM
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#78
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2090 Joined: 13-February 10 From: Ontario Member No.: 5221 |
Less than 1 lunar distance now; 7 hours to close the remaining gap, just like after launch (Newton's First Law )
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Dec 31 2018, 10:58 PM
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#79
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Member Group: Members Posts: 913 Joined: 4-September 06 From: Boston Member No.: 1102 |
At the press conference Dr. Spencer used a pen to demonstrate how if it rotates perpendicular to its long axis, and the rotation axis is facing you, you see the same surface all the time.
-------------------- |
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Dec 31 2018, 11:02 PM
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#80
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Member Group: Members Posts: 890 Joined: 18-November 08 Member No.: 4489 |
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Dec 31 2018, 11:14 PM
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#81
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Member Group: Members Posts: 684 Joined: 24-July 15 Member No.: 7619 |
In the absence of any other forces, could solar radiation have halted its rotation in the orientation that presents the least "pressure"? That would indeed be a wacky possibility, but the Yarkovsky effect sounds wacky at first, too. Hmm, evaporation from the sunrise side removes mass and momentum, transfers it to the evening-side via condensation.... "In Lower Pomerania is the Diamond Mountain... every hundred years a little bird comes and sharpens its beak on it" The Brothers Grimm "You must think that's a helluva long time!... Two Billion years...Personally? I think that's a helluva bird" Steven Moffat/Peter Capaldi |
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Dec 31 2018, 11:23 PM
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#82
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Forum Contributor Group: Members Posts: 1372 Joined: 8-February 04 From: North East Florida, USA. Member No.: 11 |
Less than 200K miles now.
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Jan 1 2019, 03:19 AM
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#83
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Member Group: Members Posts: 120 Joined: 26-May 15 From: Rome - Italy Member No.: 7482 |
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Jan 1 2019, 03:40 AM
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#84
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Member Group: Members Posts: 159 Joined: 4-March 06 Member No.: 694 |
One hour and 53 minutes to closest approach now.
-------------------- I call heaven and earth to witness against you this day, that I have set before thee life and death, the blessing and the curse; therefore choose life, that thou mayest live, thou and thy seed.
- Opening line from episode 13 of "Cosmos" |
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Jan 1 2019, 03:46 AM
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#85
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Member Group: Members Posts: 715 Joined: 3-January 08 Member No.: 3995 |
I'm imagining it as something with a form like Methone, but probably not as smooth. Perhaps this vast and remote neighborhood could have been quiet enough through the ages to prevent any disruptions that would result in an irregular form.
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Jan 1 2019, 03:57 AM
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#86
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1276 Joined: 25-November 04 Member No.: 114 |
I expect a crater-less comet like object.
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Jan 1 2019, 04:34 AM
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#87
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Forum Contributor Group: Members Posts: 1372 Joined: 8-February 04 From: North East Florida, USA. Member No.: 11 |
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Jan 1 2019, 04:34 AM
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#88
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2090 Joined: 13-February 10 From: Ontario Member No.: 5221 |
Less than an hour left....
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Jan 1 2019, 05:15 AM
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#89
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Junior Member Group: Members Posts: 77 Joined: 27-June 04 From: Queensland Australia Member No.: 90 |
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Jan 1 2019, 05:20 AM
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#90
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Forum Contributor Group: Members Posts: 1372 Joined: 8-February 04 From: North East Florida, USA. Member No.: 11 |
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Jan 1 2019, 05:24 AM
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#91
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Member Group: Members Posts: 159 Joined: 4-March 06 Member No.: 694 |
Only 9 minutes or just over 9000 KM to closest approach now.
-------------------- I call heaven and earth to witness against you this day, that I have set before thee life and death, the blessing and the curse; therefore choose life, that thou mayest live, thou and thy seed.
- Opening line from episode 13 of "Cosmos" |
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Jan 1 2019, 05:38 AM
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#92
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Forum Contributor Group: Members Posts: 1372 Joined: 8-February 04 From: North East Florida, USA. Member No.: 11 |
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Jan 1 2019, 06:06 AM
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#93
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
We wait on the beach of a midnight sea, anxiously awaiting the faintest of comforting whispers from our small, small ship as she passes a distant, mysterious island faster than dreams, far beyond our horizon
Good luck. -------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Jan 1 2019, 07:51 AM
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#94
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Junior Member Group: Members Posts: 34 Joined: 15-January 05 Member No.: 149 |
We wait on the beach of a midnight sea, anxiously awaiting the faintest of comforting whispers from our small, small ship as she passes a distant, mysterious island faster than dreams, far beyond our horizon Good luck. That's beautiful, and a wonderful and optimistic sentiment with which to start the new year. Thank you. |
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Jan 1 2019, 08:41 AM
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#95
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Member Group: Members Posts: 120 Joined: 26-May 15 From: Rome - Italy Member No.: 7482 |
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Jan 1 2019, 03:20 PM
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#96
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
Acquisition of signal for 'phone home' expected at approx. 1535 GMT, NASA TV live coverage beginning now! (1520 GMT)
-------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Jan 1 2019, 03:31 PM
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#97
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
Carrier!
-------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Jan 1 2019, 03:32 PM
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#98
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
TELEMETRY LOCK!!!
-------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Jan 1 2019, 03:33 PM
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#99
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2090 Joined: 13-February 10 From: Ontario Member No.: 5221 |
Telemetry coming down....
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Jan 1 2019, 03:36 PM
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#100
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
RECORDER POINTERS AS PREDICTED, EXPECTED AMOUNT OF DATA ACQUIRED!
-------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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