Luna 25 lander mission, Russian lander following on from the Soviet-era lunar program |
Luna 25 lander mission, Russian lander following on from the Soviet-era lunar program |
Feb 4 2022, 03:14 AM
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#1
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Solar System Cartographer Group: Members Posts: 10173 Joined: 5-April 05 From: Canada Member No.: 227 |
I am starting a new thread for this mission which should fly this year.
Phil -------------------- ... because the Solar System ain't gonna map itself.
Also to be found posting similar content on https://mastodon.social/@PhilStooke Maps for download (free PD: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/comm...Cartography.pdf NOTE: everything created by me which I post on UMSF is considered to be in the public domain (NOT CC, public domain) |
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Feb 4 2022, 09:32 AM
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#2
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Member Group: Members Posts: 123 Joined: 3-September 12 From: Almeria, SE Spain Member No.: 6632 |
Launch is to my knowledge on July 22, 23:21:45 UTC.
Arrival at the lunar orbit on July 28. Thorsten |
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Feb 4 2022, 02:03 PM
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#3
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Member Group: Members Posts: 349 Joined: 20-June 07 From: Slovenia Member No.: 2461 |
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Feb 4 2022, 05:07 PM
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#4
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1729 Joined: 3-August 06 From: 43° 35' 53" N 1° 26' 35" E Member No.: 1004 |
my photo of a model of Luna 25 on top of its Fregat stage
https://flic.kr/p/2ggQAdM |
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Feb 6 2022, 08:41 AM
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#5
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Solar System Cartographer Group: Members Posts: 10173 Joined: 5-April 05 From: Canada Member No.: 227 |
https://selena.sai.msu.ru/Rod/Publications/...sites_final.pdf
Paolo's reference to the landing sites is quite old, and the sites have now moved out of Bugaevsky crater to the north. This link is to a paper about mapping the landing sites for hazards. Ellipse 6 in this paper is the primary site, just north of the crater. Meanwhile, the Chandrayaan 3 site seems to be in the southern floor of Bugaevsky very near the old Luna 25 ellipses. Phil -------------------- ... because the Solar System ain't gonna map itself.
Also to be found posting similar content on https://mastodon.social/@PhilStooke Maps for download (free PD: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/comm...Cartography.pdf NOTE: everything created by me which I post on UMSF is considered to be in the public domain (NOT CC, public domain) |
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Feb 6 2022, 07:45 PM
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#6
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Member Group: Members Posts: 349 Joined: 20-June 07 From: Slovenia Member No.: 2461 |
Phil it is my fault, not Paolo's. I dug into the matter deeper and in addition to Phil's article also found this paper.
The list of sites is almost the same between the 2 sources, one lists 11 sites, the other has 12 (apparently old Boguslawsky crater site), one has coordinates down to 3 decimals, the other rounds it up to 2. These ellipses were meant for 2019 or 2020 landings so they might have changed further since the papers were published. I couldn't find much on Chandrayaan 3 site, but what i found says the plan to land at more or less same spot as at the last attempt. Here is update map with ellipse 6 marked as landing spot: |
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Feb 6 2022, 10:34 PM
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#7
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Solar System Cartographer Group: Members Posts: 10173 Joined: 5-April 05 From: Canada Member No.: 227 |
Yes, sorry, Paolo, I should have known better.
Phil -------------------- ... because the Solar System ain't gonna map itself.
Also to be found posting similar content on https://mastodon.social/@PhilStooke Maps for download (free PD: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/comm...Cartography.pdf NOTE: everything created by me which I post on UMSF is considered to be in the public domain (NOT CC, public domain) |
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Feb 7 2022, 06:20 AM
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#8
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1729 Joined: 3-August 06 From: 43° 35' 53" N 1° 26' 35" E Member No.: 1004 |
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Feb 23 2023, 01:32 PM
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#9
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Member Group: Members Posts: 185 Joined: 4-January 19 Member No.: 8523 |
Russia sets date for historic space mission
“Taking into consideration the astronomical ‘window,’ the launch of ‘Luna-25’ spacecraft is planned for 13.07.2023.” We got a new date. https://www.rt.com/russia/571964-roscosmos-...-lunar-mission/ -------------------- "The Earth is a very small stage in a vast cosmic arena"
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Mar 1 2023, 03:57 AM
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#10
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Solar System Cartographer Group: Members Posts: 10173 Joined: 5-April 05 From: Canada Member No.: 227 |
If this mission lands successfully it is supposed to operate for about a year. During the first lunar day it will study its landing site with various remote sensing instruments and map its workspace. On each subsequent lunar day its arm will collect a sample from the workspace and deliver it to analytical instruments inside the spacecraft. Samples from different locations and depths will explore the variations in volatile content (and basic mineral composition) in the workspace.
Phil -------------------- ... because the Solar System ain't gonna map itself.
Also to be found posting similar content on https://mastodon.social/@PhilStooke Maps for download (free PD: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/comm...Cartography.pdf NOTE: everything created by me which I post on UMSF is considered to be in the public domain (NOT CC, public domain) |
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May 30 2023, 10:35 PM
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#11
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Solar System Cartographer Group: Members Posts: 10173 Joined: 5-April 05 From: Canada Member No.: 227 |
https://twitter.com/katlinegrey/status/1663597591613919233
A one month delay. Now it is possible that Luna 25 and Chandrayaan 3 will land at almost the same date and only about 100 km apart. Phil -------------------- ... because the Solar System ain't gonna map itself.
Also to be found posting similar content on https://mastodon.social/@PhilStooke Maps for download (free PD: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/comm...Cartography.pdf NOTE: everything created by me which I post on UMSF is considered to be in the public domain (NOT CC, public domain) |
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Aug 3 2023, 11:28 PM
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#12
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Member Group: Members Posts: 540 Joined: 17-November 05 From: Oklahoma Member No.: 557 |
Rumor has it that the launch will occur August 11th, just a few more days.
Update: 23:10 pm GMT on August 10th (which is August 11th Moscow time). Launch on a Soyuz with a Fregat upper stage from Vostochny Cosmodrome. This according to a Russian news agency, not otherwise confirmed. |
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Aug 10 2023, 08:48 PM
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#13
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Member Group: Members Posts: 913 Joined: 15-June 09 From: Lisbon, Portugal Member No.: 4824 |
Anyone wanting to see the launch can do so via the YouTube channel of Roscosmos at:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgi2pIFrnW4 As I post this it will be live in about 70 minutes. Luna 25's landing site seems to be the Boguslawsky crater, which is centered on 72.9°S 43.2°E. Source: Wikipedia page on Luna 25 Fernando |
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Aug 10 2023, 10:11 PM
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#14
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Solar System Cartographer Group: Members Posts: 10173 Joined: 5-April 05 From: Canada Member No.: 227 |
Wikipedia is a bit out of date on that point. The current target is north of the crater, not in it.
This map shows a large set of ellipses considered for the mission and the three ellipses preferred, with number 6 actually being the target. a white outline inside the ellipse is the most hazard-free region which will presumably form the actual target within the ellipse. Phil -------------------- ... because the Solar System ain't gonna map itself.
Also to be found posting similar content on https://mastodon.social/@PhilStooke Maps for download (free PD: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/comm...Cartography.pdf NOTE: everything created by me which I post on UMSF is considered to be in the public domain (NOT CC, public domain) |
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Aug 10 2023, 11:47 PM
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#15
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8784 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
Successfully launched into parking orbit. There will apparently be two burns required for translunar injection, but live coverage seems to have ended.
-------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Aug 11 2023, 04:41 AM
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#16
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Member Group: Members Posts: 204 Joined: 14-April 06 From: Seattle, WA Member No.: 745 |
I found a post on twitter (or X) that has what looks like a release from Roscosmos that says that TLI has been performed and Luna 25 has separated from the Fregat stage.
https://twitter.com/TitaniumSV5/status/1689...9728000/photo/1 It says the landing is now scheduled for August 21. |
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Aug 14 2023, 08:10 PM
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#17
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Solar System Cartographer Group: Members Posts: 10173 Joined: 5-April 05 From: Canada Member No.: 227 |
https://iki.cosmos.ru/news/ot-zemli-uleteli-letim-k-lune
IKI (Institute for Cosmic Research) news page for Luna 25 with some early images. This is the mission website: https://iki.cosmos.ru/missions/luna-25 Phil -------------------- ... because the Solar System ain't gonna map itself.
Also to be found posting similar content on https://mastodon.social/@PhilStooke Maps for download (free PD: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/comm...Cartography.pdf NOTE: everything created by me which I post on UMSF is considered to be in the public domain (NOT CC, public domain) |
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Aug 15 2023, 07:35 AM
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#18
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Member Group: Members Posts: 648 Joined: 9-May 05 From: Subotica Member No.: 384 |
There is this quite detailed site about Luna-25 and its instruments.
It is written in Russian so you should open it in some browser that enables translation like Google Chrome. It works just fine for me. Takes some time to load. Luna-25 site -------------------- The scientist does not study nature because it is useful; he studies it because he delights in it, and he delights in it because it is beautiful.
Jules H. Poincare My "Astrophotos" gallery on flickr... |
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Aug 16 2023, 12:00 PM
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#19
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1432 Joined: 26-July 08 Member No.: 4270 |
From Anatoly Zak - possible LOI success.
QUOTE According to unofficial reports, the Luna-25 (Luna-Glob) spacecraft was expected to enter an initial orbit around the Moon at noon Moscow Time (5 a.m. EDT) on Aug. 16, 2023. According to an unofficial report on the Novosti Kosmonavtiki web forum, posted around 1.5 hour after the expected lunar orbit insertion maneuver and citing available telemetry, the probe's engine fired as scheduled and the spacecraft maintained correct attitude during the maneuver.
-------------------- -- Hungry4info (Sirius_Alpha)
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Aug 16 2023, 12:59 PM
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#20
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1432 Joined: 26-July 08 Member No.: 4270 |
And it's official. From the Roscosmos Telegram post:
QUOTE ("Google Translate") This was ensured by two switching on of the propulsion system of the automatic station. The first activation was performed at 11:57 Moscow time by a corrective braking engine and lasted 243 seconds, the second - by soft landing engines and lasted 76 seconds.
For the first time in the modern history of Russia, at 12:03 Moscow time, an automatic station was launched into the orbit of an artificial satellite of the Moon! All Luna-25 systems are functioning normally, communication with it is stable. Sessions are being taken to measure the current navigational parameters. -------------------- -- Hungry4info (Sirius_Alpha)
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Aug 16 2023, 07:08 PM
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#21
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Solar System Cartographer Group: Members Posts: 10173 Joined: 5-April 05 From: Canada Member No.: 227 |
https://iki.cosmos.ru/news/kosmicheskiy-app...-sputnikom-luny
update with a colour version of the spacecraft image seen earlier in monochrome. Phil -------------------- ... because the Solar System ain't gonna map itself.
Also to be found posting similar content on https://mastodon.social/@PhilStooke Maps for download (free PD: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/comm...Cartography.pdf NOTE: everything created by me which I post on UMSF is considered to be in the public domain (NOT CC, public domain) |
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Aug 17 2023, 04:12 PM
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#22
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1432 Joined: 26-July 08 Member No.: 4270 |
-------------------- -- Hungry4info (Sirius_Alpha)
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Aug 18 2023, 09:04 AM
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#23
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Member Group: Members Posts: 551 Joined: 1-May 06 From: Scotland (Ecosse, Escocia) Member No.: 759 |
The text issued with above picture.
Luna-25" took the first picture of the lunar surface An automatic station flying in a circular orbit of an artificial satellite of the Moon took pictures of the lunar surface with television cameras of the STS-L complex. The picture shows the south polar crater Zeeman on the far side of the Moon. The coordinates of the center of the crater correspond to 75 degrees south latitude and 135 degrees west longitude. Invisible from Earth, the Zeeman crater is a unique object on the lunar surface and is of great interest to researchers - the height of the shaft surrounding it reaches 8 kilometers above the surface of a relatively flat bottom. The resulting images significantly complement the currently available information about this crater. The world's first image of the far side of the moon was obtained in October 1959 by the Soviet automatic station "Luna-3". "Luna-25" carried out observations with the help of ADRON-LR and PmL, ARIES-L instruments. Fluxes of gamma rays and neutrons from the lunar surface are measured, and the parameters of the circumlunar space plasma and gas and dust exosphere in the circumlunar orbit are also obtained. |
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Aug 19 2023, 06:21 PM
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#24
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1432 Joined: 26-July 08 Member No.: 4270 |
The manoeuvre to lower to a pre-landing orbit failed.
QUOTE Today at 11:10 UTC, an impulse was given to transfer the spacecraft to a pre-landing orbit. During the operation, an emergency situation occurred, which didn't allow the maneuver to be performed as planned. Currently, the specialists are analyzing the situation.
-------------------- -- Hungry4info (Sirius_Alpha)
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Aug 20 2023, 06:01 AM
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#25
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Solar System Cartographer Group: Members Posts: 10173 Joined: 5-April 05 From: Canada Member No.: 227 |
We don't have anything official as I write this but the suggestion floating around various Russian online forums (Astroforum, Novosti Kosmonavtiki) is that a braking burn lasted about 60% longer than intended, causing excessive braking and an impact on the surface. Mare Tranquillitatis has been suggested as an impact area. This is NOT official.
Phil -------------------- ... because the Solar System ain't gonna map itself.
Also to be found posting similar content on https://mastodon.social/@PhilStooke Maps for download (free PD: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/comm...Cartography.pdf NOTE: everything created by me which I post on UMSF is considered to be in the public domain (NOT CC, public domain) |
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Aug 20 2023, 09:40 AM
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#26
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Member Group: Members Posts: 362 Joined: 12-June 05 From: Kiama, Australia Member No.: 409 |
Russian spacecraft has crashed into the Moon after it spun into an uncontrolled orbit, Russia's national space agency Roskosmos says.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-20/russ...-moon/102753294 |
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Aug 20 2023, 06:25 PM
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#27
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Member Group: Members Posts: 611 Joined: 23-February 07 From: Occasionally in Columbia, MD Member No.: 1764 |
Space is hard. Landings especially so.
I put this table together a few years ago for a paper on evaluating risk and payoff of planetary missions (in part to show the advantage of mobility, and of reconnaissance, to note that without at least the latter, a single, fixed Europa lander would be unlikely to realize the claims being made for it...) It shows that the empirical historical record for landings is something like 25-83% reliable (which is in stark contrast to the 99% reliability sought, and used in e.g. landing ellipse specification). I havent run the numbers, but I suspect the Chandrayaan2-Beresheet-Hakuto-Luna25 set of losses is consistent with the lower end of that. We'll see what happens later in the week.... The paper is at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/artic...273117719303539 (may be paywalled, tho. email me if you need it and cant get it) |
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Aug 21 2023, 02:47 AM
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#28
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1583 Joined: 14-October 05 From: Vermont Member No.: 530 |
Always tell us the odds, Ralph.
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Aug 21 2023, 04:22 AM
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#29
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 4247 Joined: 17-January 05 Member No.: 152 |
And presumably the "expected success probability" for something like ESA Mars landings needs to be taken with a healthy grain of salt, since there have been no successes...
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Aug 21 2023, 06:03 PM
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#30
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Member Group: Members Posts: 551 Joined: 1-May 06 From: Scotland (Ecosse, Escocia) Member No.: 759 |
And the Soviet moon landings had a lot more than 1 failure, and a lot more than 5 attempts (if that is what "trials" means).
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Aug 21 2023, 07:25 PM
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#31
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Solar System Cartographer Group: Members Posts: 10173 Joined: 5-April 05 From: Canada Member No.: 227 |
-------------------- ... because the Solar System ain't gonna map itself.
Also to be found posting similar content on https://mastodon.social/@PhilStooke Maps for download (free PD: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/comm...Cartography.pdf NOTE: everything created by me which I post on UMSF is considered to be in the public domain (NOT CC, public domain) |
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Aug 22 2023, 01:21 AM
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#32
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Member Group: Members Posts: 611 Joined: 23-February 07 From: Occasionally in Columbia, MD Member No.: 1764 |
And presumably the "expected success probability" for something like ESA Mars landings needs to be taken with a healthy grain of salt, since there have been no successes... You miss the whole point of the Cromwell-Laplace estimate (discussed in the supplement to the paper - the success probability estimator of most use may be informally termed the Cromwell‐Laplace estimate, equal to (k+1)/(n+2) where k is the number of successes out of n trials. It essentially encodes the idea that one can never be 100% certain (from Oliver Cromwell’s appeal “I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you may be mistaken” to the Church of Scotland in 1650). Equivalently, it introduces the possibility that one’s luck could run out and the next trial may fail, even in an otherwise unblemished record so far.) In effect k+1/n+2 dilutes the track record by the prospect that the next attempt could go either way. It embodies the prior that no system is 100% reliable or 100% unreliable, and starts with a 50:50 guess if there is no track record, then asymptotically tends as data accumulate to the frequentist probability k/n. So 'the grain of salt' is baked into the method via Bayes rule. |
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Aug 22 2023, 01:28 AM
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#33
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Member Group: Members Posts: 611 Joined: 23-February 07 From: Occasionally in Columbia, MD Member No.: 1764 |
And the Soviet moon landings had a lot more than 1 failure, and a lot more than 5 attempts (if that is what "trials" means). You're quite right. The supplement notes Data in this section are drawn from a variety of sources, principally Wilson (1987), Ball et al. (2006) and Harland and Lorenz (2006) together with contemporary internet sources (Wikipedia entries for Soyuz, Falcon 9, Luna Program, Cromwell's Rule, downloaded November 2018). Various judgements are made regarding the accounting of specific examples which could lead to small adjustments in estimated probabilities. The principal message, that probabilities of success are not (and are sometimes far from) unity, is robust to the subjective component of these assessments ..... ..... The Soviet lunar exploration program featured 2 successful semi‐hard landings (Luna‐9 and ‐13), two successful landers with Lunokhod rovers (Luna‐17 and ‐21) and one rover that failed to depart Earth. This set of 4 successful landers yields PL~0.83, although adding sample return landers to the set brings this probability rather lower. Soviet Mars landing attempts Mars‐2, ‐3, ‐6 and ‐7 yielded only 20 seconds of transmission from the surface from Mars‐3 – depending whether that is considered a success or not, we have 0.17<PL<0.33, although factors contributing to this particularly dismaying performance were known at the time (e.g. Perminov, 1999). I forget why I excluded the sample return landers. Note that missions lost on launch would have been rolled up into the launch success number (i.e. PL is conditional on getting delivered to a landing trajectory, although I forget why I included Lunokhod-0....) Anyway, I maintain the remark above, that the overall conclusion (that loss probability on landing attempts is ten to tens of per cent, and not just a few per cent as the Challenger-like risk assessments always seem to say) is robust... |
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Aug 23 2023, 01:24 AM
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#34
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 4247 Joined: 17-January 05 Member No.: 152 |
In effect k+1/n+2 dilutes the track record by the prospect that the next attempt could go either way. It embodies the prior that no system is 100% reliable or 100% unreliable, and starts with a 50:50 guess if there is no track record, then asymptotically tends as data accumulate to the frequentist probability k/n. So 'the grain of salt' is baked into the method via Bayes rule. I agree that the Cromwell‐Laplace estimate (aka the "rule of succession") gives the best estimate (expectation of the posterior) of the probability, P, of success for independent trials when we assume a uniform prior on P. My point instead was simply that the variance of the posterior for P gets large for small n. Eg, for ESA Mars landings (k = 0, n = 2) we have mean P = 0.25 but standard deviation of 0.19 (for the beta distribution posterior). In other words, we really can't say much about P in that case except that it's vaguely somewhere between maybe 0.06 and 0.44. That's what I meant by taking P = 0.25 with a grain of salt. Of course the variance gets smaller as n gets larger, so when there are many launches the value of the expectation P is more meaningful. |
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Aug 24 2023, 02:38 AM
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#35
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Member Group: Members Posts: 611 Joined: 23-February 07 From: Occasionally in Columbia, MD Member No.: 1764 |
I agree that the Cromwell‐Laplace estimate (aka the "rule of succession") gives the best estimate (expectation of the posterior) of the probability, P, of success for independent trials when we assume a uniform prior on P. My point instead was simply that the variance of the posterior for P gets large for small n. Eg, for ESA Mars landings (k = 0, n = 2) we have mean P = 0.25 but standard deviation of 0.19 (for the beta distribution posterior). In other words, we really can't say much about P in that case except that it's vaguely somewhere between maybe 0.06 and 0.44. That's what I meant by taking P = 0.25 with a grain of salt. Of course the variance gets smaller as n gets larger, so when there are many launches the value of the expectation P is more meaningful. Sure. To put it another way that avoids people having to mess with Beta distributions, you can get an idea of the size of the required salt grain (i.e. some measure of the uncertainty) from the difference between (k/n) and (k+1/n+2), here 0/2 vs 1/4, or 0.25 |
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Aug 24 2023, 09:12 AM
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#36
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Member Group: Members Posts: 123 Joined: 3-September 12 From: Almeria, SE Spain Member No.: 6632 |
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Aug 29 2023, 02:21 PM
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#37
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Member Group: Members Posts: 551 Joined: 1-May 06 From: Scotland (Ecosse, Escocia) Member No.: 759 |
The French News Agency AFP reports the following, repeated by Moscow Times:
Kremlin vows to pursue Moon race after Luna-25 crash by AFP Staff Writers Moscow (AFP) Aug 29, 2023 The Kremlin said Tuesday that Russia would not give up its ambitions to land a craft on the Moon after its first lunar mission in nearly 50 years failed this month. The Luna-25 module crashed on the Moon's surface after an incident during pre-landing manoeuvres. An Indian mission days later successfully landed near the Moon's south pole. "We know that the way to the stars is through thorns. The main thing is to continue the Russian programme," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. "The plans are quite ambitious and they will be realised," he said, adding that the failed mission was not a reason to "tear your hair out". Moscow Times - Luna program to continue |
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Aug 31 2023, 08:26 PM
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#38
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Solar System Cartographer Group: Members Posts: 10173 Joined: 5-April 05 From: Canada Member No.: 227 |
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2023/lro-luna-25-impact
Luna 25 impact crater - very probably. The story is cautious but I think the faint downrange spray of bright ejecta is pretty conclusive. Dark markings near the impact are also seen at other anthropogenic impacts. Difference image attached. Phil -------------------- ... because the Solar System ain't gonna map itself.
Also to be found posting similar content on https://mastodon.social/@PhilStooke Maps for download (free PD: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/comm...Cartography.pdf NOTE: everything created by me which I post on UMSF is considered to be in the public domain (NOT CC, public domain) |
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Sep 1 2023, 09:23 AM
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#39
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Member Group: Members Posts: 551 Joined: 1-May 06 From: Scotland (Ecosse, Escocia) Member No.: 759 |
NASA Goddard has released an alternating GIF that shows the candidate site for Luna 25, before and after the presumed impact.
Luna 25 impact site before and after |
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