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Onwards to Uranus and Neptune!
SFJCody
post Jan 12 2008, 09:40 PM
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As soon as MESSENGER gets to Mercury, the most poorly explored planets in the solar system will be Uranus and Neptune. Could this lead to a revival of interest in the ice giants and their retinue, in the same way that the existence of New Horizons is perhaps partly due to the Pluto stamp*?







*via Pluto Fast Flyby and later Pluto Kuiper Express
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Big_Gazza
post Feb 7 2008, 10:33 AM
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Oh Great Maker, let it be so.... biggrin.gif

(for the record, I'm a staunch atheist, but if prayer has one part in a trillion chance of success... laugh.gif
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ugordan
post Feb 7 2008, 11:00 AM
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To me, any new mission to Neptune that isn't an orbiter will be a tough concept to sell. Spending considerable time and money on an essentially Yet Another Flyby mission. An orbital mission would be significantly costlier, but the increased science return would most likely far outweigh the cost increase.


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vjkane
post Feb 7 2008, 03:45 PM
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QUOTE (ugordan @ Feb 7 2008, 12:00 PM) *
An orbital mission would be significantly costlier, but the increased science return would most likely far outweigh the cost increase.

From various outer planet mission studies, we can safely say that a Neptune or Uranus orbiter will likely cost in the $2-3B range (one Flagship mission to outer planets every 10-20 years). (The last outer planets new start was Cassini in 1990.) This proposed flyby is in the ~$850M range (one New Frontiers mission every 3-5 years). We'll pick either Jupiter or Titan for the next Flagship mission, and then presumably will pick the other one 10-20 years later. That pushes an ice giant mission out to the 2040-2050s or so by the time it arrives. So if we want to learn anything about ice giants from a spacecraft mission in the working lifetime of the present cadre of scientists (and for many of us, in our lifetime at all), it will have to be a mission like this. My only complaint about the proposal is that it doesn't have an atmospheric probe, which could be very minimal and provided by an international partner. Understanding the elemental composition of ice giants is key to understanding the formation of the solar system.


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JRehling
post Feb 8 2008, 07:55 PM
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vjkane
post Feb 8 2008, 08:37 PM
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QUOTE (JRehling @ Feb 8 2008, 08:55 PM) *
It's unsatisfactory to have a small set of programs for mission selection, and to thereby allow targets of moderate interest to attract zero attention for decades on end. Much better if a broad long-term plan included contingencies for Uranus/Neptune (including, if the priorities weight out that way, to ignore them) than to see them perpetually bridesmaids because of the dynamics of one-upping.

Extremely well stated, John. For the foreseeable future, Mars (e.g., MSL, sample return), Jupiter, and Titan are going to take all the flagship spots. Discovery missions are severely limited in their scope and range, especially with the new rules to constrain develop cost risks. That leaves New Frontiers as the only mechanism to explore the solar system from the surface of Venus, Mercury (can't top MESSENGER and Bepi-Colombo on a Discovery budget), to the solar system beyond Jupiter. (You can throw the surface of Mars in this list, too. A Mars network mission has been recommended for New Frontiers). If our knowledge of these places is going to increase in any systematic way, then we need a list of prioritized missions. Otherwise, it's a crap shoot of which proposal looks best each time.

Right now, the New Frontiers queue includes (this is from memory, so I may miss something):

Lunar sample return
Venus lander and/or balloon
Comet sample return

A Saturn dual-probe mission has been strongly recommended (and if it launches ~2016-2018, it can also fly by Neptune; perhaps it could even carry a third probe for Neptune)

At 2-3 New Frontiers missions a decade, this list of (in my opinion) superb missions will take 1-2 decades to complete.

A number of missions have been suggested to augment this list or even to throw each announcement of opportunity wide open.

I don't favor the latter approach. I think the science community needs to set priorities so that this funding mechanism can ensure a systematic approach to studying all the places that Discovery can't reach and Flagship missions won't reach. This also allows the engineering community to focus on finding solutions for a constrained set of options. I do favor reviewing the list every time a mission is selected from it. For example, the discovery by Stardust that at least one comet's dust is composed of highly reworked, solar origin material may greatly lower the attractiveness of a comet sample return. Similarly, another nation may decide to fly a mission equivalent to one of the candidates.

By the way, I've heard that the next New Frontiers mission will not be allowed to use nuclear power (to save costs or a dwindling supply of nuclear material or both?). All the missions on the current list can be flown with solar power, although that would constrain any Saturn mission to just Saturn.

By the way, my favorite sequence of the next selections would be the Venus lander (which also likely would include atmospheric composition) followed by a combo Saturn-Neptune mission. But like I said, there's not a dud in the bunch.


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tedstryk
post Feb 8 2008, 10:10 PM
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I think that Uranus has a bigger problem. The bland appearance of Voyager photos doesn't help. Also, it lacks a big moon, like Triton. Both planets could be combined with Kuiper Belt flybys, but with Neptune, you get a large (if melted down) KBO right off the bat. Plus, Triton is active, meaning that looking for changes since Voyager is a selling point for a flyby sooner rather than an orbiter later. I am not saying that Neptune out-merits Uranus, I am saying that I think a Neptune flyby mission has more of a chance of happening, perhaps tied to a New Horizons followup.


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Posts in this topic
- SFJCody   Onwards to Uranus and Neptune!   Jan 12 2008, 09:40 PM
- - tedstryk   QUOTE (SFJCody @ Jan 12 2008, 09:40 PM) A...   Jan 12 2008, 10:01 PM
|- - J.J.   QUOTE (tedstryk @ Jan 12 2008, 04:01 PM) ...   Jan 13 2008, 02:52 PM
- - vjkane   There is the opportunity, brought up in another th...   Jan 13 2008, 12:12 AM
|- - cawest   QUOTE (vjkane @ Jan 13 2008, 01:12 AM) Th...   Feb 18 2008, 04:35 AM
|- - ugordan   QUOTE (cawest @ Feb 18 2008, 05:35 AM) yo...   Feb 18 2008, 08:55 AM
|- - cawest   QUOTE (ugordan @ Feb 18 2008, 09:55 AM) W...   Feb 19 2008, 04:45 AM
- - tasp   "Economics engineering' seemed to be the ...   Jan 13 2008, 12:31 AM
- - Greg Hullender   Does anyone have a link to any of the JSN proposal...   Jan 13 2008, 02:32 AM
- - climber   Do you think this: http://planetary.org/blog/artic...   Jan 13 2008, 06:00 AM
- - mchan   Re: JSNK mission. Front this more as a Saturn pro...   Jan 13 2008, 09:53 AM
|- - vjkane   QUOTE (mchan @ Jan 13 2008, 09:53 AM) Re:...   Jan 13 2008, 06:16 PM
- - Greg Hullender   How much of the cost of one of these missions is t...   Jan 13 2008, 06:18 PM
|- - JRehling   [...]   Jan 13 2008, 10:40 PM
|- - djellison   I would consider aerocapture an enabling technolog...   Jan 13 2008, 10:55 PM
|- - Planet X   QUOTE (JRehling @ Jan 13 2008, 04:40 PM) ...   Jan 14 2008, 03:08 PM
- - CAP-Team   I think they should build two spacecraft, and send...   Jan 13 2008, 11:11 PM
|- - ugordan   QUOTE (CAP-Team @ Jan 14 2008, 12:11...   Jan 13 2008, 11:18 PM
- - nprev   You know if anyone's done a serious study on a...   Jan 13 2008, 11:40 PM
- - vjkane   Neptune has been ranked as a higher priority as ra...   Jan 14 2008, 04:35 PM
- - Greg Hullender   I get 16 years for the Hohmann to Uranus, but just...   Jan 14 2008, 05:48 PM
|- - Del Palmer   QUOTE (Greg Hullender @ Jan 14 2008, 05:4...   Jan 14 2008, 07:12 PM
- - Jyril   But it would have missed Ida and Gaspra, and the c...   Jan 14 2008, 10:40 PM
|- - ugordan   QUOTE (Jyril @ Jan 14 2008, 11:40 PM) and...   Jan 14 2008, 10:54 PM
||- - Jyril   QUOTE (ugordan @ Jan 15 2008, 12:54 AM) I...   Jan 14 2008, 11:04 PM
||- - ugordan   QUOTE (Jyril @ Jan 15 2008, 12:04 AM) How...   Jan 14 2008, 11:06 PM
|- - tedstryk   Yes, but during the post-Challenger delay and repl...   Jan 15 2008, 12:54 AM
|- - Toma B   QUOTE (Jyril @ Jan 15 2008, 01:40 AM) On ...   Jan 15 2008, 09:02 AM
- - tasp   IIRC, the Galileo Jupiter trajectory provided by t...   Jan 15 2008, 06:08 AM
- - Greg Hullender   Uh, I hope they didn't plan to open the main a...   Jan 15 2008, 02:32 PM
|- - Toma B   QUOTE (Greg Hullender @ Jan 15 2008, 05:3...   Jan 16 2008, 07:49 AM
- - Greg Hullender   Actually, I think you're right. The only reas...   Jan 16 2008, 04:29 PM
- - Mariner9   Some years ago at a JPL open house I spoke with o...   Jan 16 2008, 09:51 PM
- - Gladstoner   .   Jan 19 2008, 08:54 AM
- - nprev   Uh...say what?! We haven't launched a Gali...   Jan 19 2008, 09:05 AM
|- - JRehling   [...]   Jan 19 2008, 09:14 AM
|- - Gladstoner   .   Jan 19 2008, 09:34 AM
|- - nprev   QUOTE (Gladstoner @ Jan 19 2008, 01:34 AM...   Jan 19 2008, 10:18 AM
||- - Gladstoner   .   Jan 19 2008, 11:00 AM
||- - Mark6   QUOTE (nprev @ Jan 19 2008, 11:18 AM) No ...   Feb 25 2008, 02:00 AM
||- - JRehling   [...]   Feb 25 2008, 04:34 AM
||- - Mark6   QUOTE (JRehling @ Feb 25 2008, 05:34 AM) ...   Feb 25 2008, 01:25 PM
|- - centsworth_II   QUOTE (Gladstoner @ Jan 19 2008, 04:34 AM...   Jan 19 2008, 03:46 PM
- - Jyril   Voyager 2 was only able to visit Uranus and Neptun...   Jan 19 2008, 10:26 AM
- - Jyril   One thing should be remembered when discussing abo...   Jan 19 2008, 02:22 PM
|- - JRehling   [...]   Jan 20 2008, 07:15 AM
- - mps   QUOTE (Gladstoner @ Jan 19 2008, 01:00 PM...   Jan 19 2008, 02:50 PM
|- - Gladstoner   .   Jan 19 2008, 08:30 PM
- - nprev   Come to that, Voyager itself was a scoped-down ver...   Jan 19 2008, 04:18 PM
- - dvandorn   You know, Nick, unlike a lot of the people here, y...   Jan 19 2008, 04:57 PM
|- - nprev   QUOTE (dvandorn @ Jan 19 2008, 08:57 AM) ...   Jan 19 2008, 05:41 PM
- - Greg Hullender   Nice account of the history of the Grand Tour proj...   Jan 19 2008, 06:54 PM
- - nprev   Well, don't we all, though? Sad fact of the ...   Jan 19 2008, 09:54 PM
- - Gladstoner   .   Jan 20 2008, 07:38 AM
- - edstrick   "...I'll always think of them as Mariners...   Jan 21 2008, 10:19 AM
|- - tedstryk   While imaging systems have certainly improved, Voy...   Jan 21 2008, 07:06 PM
|- - JRehling   [...]   Jan 21 2008, 07:56 PM
|- - nprev   QUOTE (JRehling @ Jan 21 2008, 11:56 AM) ...   Feb 7 2008, 04:18 PM
- - nprev   Dou you think that Alan will hate me if I privatel...   Jan 21 2008, 06:22 PM
|- - dvandorn   QUOTE (nprev @ Jan 21 2008, 12:22 PM) Dou...   Jan 22 2008, 06:11 AM
- - edstrick   "I'd argue that Galileo was Mariner 13 an...   Jan 22 2008, 10:19 AM
- - MarcF   After the proposal of a New Horizons-like mission ...   Feb 6 2008, 09:37 PM
- - Big_Gazza   Oh Great Maker, let it be so.... (for the recor...   Feb 7 2008, 10:33 AM
|- - ugordan   To me, any new mission to Neptune that isn't a...   Feb 7 2008, 11:00 AM
|- - Doc   QUOTE (ugordan @ Feb 7 2008, 02:00 PM) To...   Feb 7 2008, 11:24 AM
|- - vjkane   QUOTE (ugordan @ Feb 7 2008, 12:00 PM) An...   Feb 7 2008, 03:45 PM
|- - JRehling   [...]   Feb 8 2008, 07:55 PM
|- - vjkane   QUOTE (JRehling @ Feb 8 2008, 08:55 PM) I...   Feb 8 2008, 08:37 PM
|- - tedstryk   I think that Uranus has a bigger problem. The bla...   Feb 8 2008, 10:10 PM
- - mchan   Unfortunately, any mission with Uranus as primary ...   Feb 9 2008, 06:36 AM
|- - tedstryk   Neptune also has the advantage of being the most d...   Feb 9 2008, 06:20 PM
|- - JRehling   [...]   Feb 11 2008, 06:40 PM
- - nprev   Heh, heh...I see that some of our more distinguish...   Feb 11 2008, 09:21 PM
|- - kwp   QUOTE (nprev @ Feb 11 2008, 02:21 PM) Tri...   Feb 11 2008, 11:08 PM
|- - tedstryk   QUOTE (kwp @ Feb 11 2008, 11:08 PM) Five?...   Feb 11 2008, 11:13 PM
- - nprev   I was counting Titan; the atmosphere is extremely ...   Feb 12 2008, 04:32 AM
- - Greg Hullender   I still wish I could see a breakdown of costs. I ...   Feb 12 2008, 04:47 AM
- - nprev   Again, this is why I wish that there was a 'li...   Feb 14 2008, 04:20 AM
|- - mchan   [removed in-line quote] There may or may not be s...   Feb 14 2008, 05:27 AM
|- - ugordan   There really is no need for a launch opportunity l...   Feb 14 2008, 09:28 AM
|- - kwp   QUOTE (ugordan @ Feb 14 2008, 01:28 AM) A...   Feb 14 2008, 05:02 PM
|- - ugordan   I believe trajectory search and optimization softw...   Feb 14 2008, 05:25 PM
|- - JRehling   [...]   Feb 14 2008, 08:17 PM
- - simonbp   This has got me thinking about if you could pull o...   Feb 17 2008, 08:17 PM
|- - tasp   QUOTE (simonbp @ Feb 17 2008, 02:17 PM) T...   Feb 18 2008, 02:55 PM
- - Greg Hullender   I think the problem with launching a Neptune and U...   Feb 18 2008, 05:08 PM
|- - JRehling   [...]   Feb 18 2008, 07:15 PM
- - Greg Hullender   I thought about that, but I think the trouble is t...   Feb 19 2008, 03:03 AM
- - Greg Hullender   How does that follow? You'd clearly have less...   Feb 19 2008, 04:26 PM
- - simonbp   Well then drop the second vehicle and fly the one ...   Feb 20 2008, 06:26 AM
- - Greg Hullender   I hear you. I'd love to see a serious proposa...   Feb 21 2008, 12:42 AM
- - Big_Gazza   QUOTE (Greg Hullender @ Feb 21 2008, 11:4...   Feb 21 2008, 01:14 PM
|- - Greg Hullender   QUOTE (Big_Gazza @ Feb 21 2008, 05:14 AM)...   Feb 21 2008, 04:27 PM
- - edstrick   "Sedna would be a somewhat more appealing tar...   Feb 25 2008, 06:12 AM
|- - JRehling   [...]   Feb 25 2008, 06:16 PM
- - nprev   Yeah, the LSST will undoubtedly provide a LOT of s...   Feb 25 2008, 06:57 PM
- - laurele   "So we should find any Sednas (now the 5th la...   Feb 26 2008, 07:00 AM
- - edstrick   Sedna is between what were supposed to be KB orbit...   Feb 26 2008, 08:37 AM
- - Greg Hullender   Mike Brown has sometimes called Sedna an "Inn...   Feb 26 2008, 06:44 PM
- - nprev   I just had a probably very silly idea, and would l...   Feb 26 2008, 07:57 PM
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