After Victoria..., .. what next? |
After Victoria..., .. what next? |
May 28 2007, 02:07 PM
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The Poet Dude Group: Moderator Posts: 5551 Joined: 15-March 04 From: Kendal, Cumbria, UK Member No.: 60 |
I know we've had rather light-hearted discussions about this before, with most people agreeing that Oppy is likely to end her days inside or on the edge of Victoria Crater, simply because there's nothing else to investigate within reach, but has Steve S got it in his mind that Oppy will head off somewhere else after Victoria? This report could be read in a way that suggests that...
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Feb 13 2008, 06:10 AM
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Director of Galilean Photography Group: Members Posts: 896 Joined: 15-July 04 From: Austin, TX Member No.: 93 |
oDoug,
We just can't make any statistical inferences based on only one sample point. Sure, Spirit lasted a good long while, but that doesn't tell us anything about Opportunity, simply because we don't have enough information, ie look up Law of Small Numbers. Even if you argued the 12 wheels are enough to give us some statistics, we are stuck because we would be comparing their first 1500 sols against their next 1500 sols, which are obviously very different. If we had numbers on average time to fail at 3000 sols, then we could give reasonable estimates. Given what we know now, what a good engineer would say is that if we had a new rover, the odds are good we could make Ithaca. Beyond that, it's all hand-waving. Even comparing the testbed rovers here on Earth wouldn't tell us much, because the environment here is so much more benign than on Mars. I agree with Doug, explore the hell out of the nearby environment, and only then go for a suicide run to Ithaca. At least we would get another year or two of worthwhile scenery before the long haul. -------------------- Space Enthusiast Richard Hendricks
-- "The engineers, as usual, made a tremendous fuss. Again as usual, they did the job in half the time they had dismissed as being absolutely impossible." --Rescue Party, Arthur C Clarke Mother Nature is the final inspector of all quality. |
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