Potential Delta II replacement |
Potential Delta II replacement |
Feb 20 2008, 06:09 PM
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#1
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Member Group: Members Posts: 321 Joined: 6-April 06 From: Cape Canaveral Member No.: 734 |
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Feb 20 2008, 09:30 PM
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#2
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Member Group: Members Posts: 118 Joined: 18-November 07 Member No.: 3964 |
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Feb 20 2008, 10:49 PM
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#3
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Member Group: Members Posts: 321 Joined: 6-April 06 From: Cape Canaveral Member No.: 734 |
Don't forget ATK's 'Athena III' http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/content/?cid=5337 Since they didn't get COTS, doubtful it will to be |
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Feb 20 2008, 11:13 PM
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#4
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Founder Group: Chairman Posts: 14434 Joined: 8-February 04 Member No.: 1 |
Since they didn't get COTS, doubtful it will to be What does a 'potential Delta II replacement' have to do with COTS? Yes - the Taurus II is part of the next COTS contract - but that's got nothing to do with it being a potential Delta II replacement. Customers looking for Delta II like capacity could look to a lot of places, many suggested here, some not, for a replacement. Just because the as yet unflown Taurus II has a COTS contract, that doesn't render it any worse or better means of getting a Delta II sized payload into orbit. If you had opened the thread with 'US governmental customers looking for a replacement for Delta II that isn't a Falcon 9' - maybe you would be on to something. Doug |
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Feb 20 2008, 11:21 PM
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#5
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Member Group: Members Posts: 321 Joined: 6-April 06 From: Cape Canaveral Member No.: 734 |
What does a 'potential Delta II replacement' have to do with COTS? Yes - the Taurus II is part of the next COTS contract - but that's got nothing to do with it being a potential Delta II replacement. Customers looking for Delta II like capacity could look to a lot of places, many suggested here, some not, for a replacement. Just because the as yet unflown Taurus II has a COTS contract, that doesn't render it any worse or better means of getting a Delta II sized payload into orbit. Doug Why do you think OSC was picked ? It wasn't because the Cygnus was better than the other front ends. COTS I wasn't about ISS resupply. NASA (the only real future Delta II class customer) picked it because of Taurus II. None of the "other" ones are viable with the current market and especially without guaranteed order ATK won't go forward. Falcon 9 Heavy is not in the same class (performance and cost wise), Ariane 5 is too big (even 1/2) and is not available to NASA I brought this up on this forum because the lost of Delta II would be a determent to science missions and be of concern to forum members |
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Feb 20 2008, 11:40 PM
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#6
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Founder Group: Chairman Posts: 14434 Joined: 8-February 04 Member No.: 1 |
None of the "other" ones are viable with the current market Apart from the Falcon 9, which NASA has also picked. Again - had you started this thread ' Potential LV's that NASA could use to replace the Delta II ' - then fine. That's not what you said. you said ' Potential Delta II replacement'. NASA is not the only customer the Delta II has had in the last 19 years, nor is it the only customer in the next 12 launches, nor is the Delta II the only vehicle to have been filling that requirement in its lifetime. There are many alternatives for those customers to turn to, some that have been flying for years, some that are yet to fly. If COTS 1 wasn't about ISS resupply, then someone better tell SpaceX and NASA who have described it thus: SpaceX ".. demonstrating delivery of cargo to the ISS and safe return of cargo to Earth" NASA "to develop and demonstrate the vehicles, systems, and operations needed to support a human facility such as ISS." I wasn't going to say this publicly but two threads in one day have dissolved to this sort of back and forth. I'm not sure if you're doing it intentionally, but it seems that you are going out of your way to be pedantic, argumentative and infuriating. Doug |
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Feb 21 2008, 01:51 AM
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#7
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Member Group: Members Posts: 321 Joined: 6-April 06 From: Cape Canaveral Member No.: 734 |
1. , nor is it the only customer in the next 12 launches, nor is the Delta II the only vehicle to have been filling that requirement in its lifetime. There are many alternatives for those customers to turn to, some that have been flying for years, some that are yet to fly. 2. If COTS 1 wasn't about ISS resupply, then someone better tell SpaceX and NASA who have described it thus: 1. Aside from 4 GPS, which is leaving the Delta II, NASA is the only customer. The two STSS missions are NASA procured. (I am working one of them). There are no alternatives for Delta II's (from qualified providers) at former Delta II's prices. That is the reason Delta II going away because of its cost 2. http://www.nasa.gov/directorates/esmd/ccc/ . COTS is an effort by NASA to stimulate, and then take advantage of, a robust commercial market for spaceflight services. As explained on other forums, if COTS I was about ISS resupply, then contractors that used pre existing ELV's and only were developing "front ends" would have won COTS I . The companies that won were targeted for their LV development. COTS II is the real resupply contract |
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Feb 21 2008, 09:41 AM
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#8
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Founder Group: Chairman Posts: 14434 Joined: 8-February 04 Member No.: 1 |
Aside from 4 GPS, which is leaving the Delta II, NASA is the only customer. The two STSS missions are NASA procured. (I am working one of them). Unless there's a significant change of plans for these two customers, NASA is not the only Delta II customer between now and it's closure. GeoEye 1 (or Orbview 5) for GeoEye ( http://www.geoeye.com/products/imagery/geoeye1/default.htm ) COSMO 3 for ASI ( http://www.telespazio.it/cosmo.html ) Totally ignoring COTS, you consider the Taurus II a Delta II replacement, but not the Falcon 9. Indeed, you are quick to dismiss the Falcon 9 entirely both here and elsewhere. Why? What is it that you know that MDA, Avanti and Bigelow do not? Doug |
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Feb 21 2008, 11:44 AM
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#9
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Member Group: Members Posts: 321 Joined: 6-April 06 From: Cape Canaveral Member No.: 734 |
Unless there's a significant change of plans for these two customers, NASA is not the only Delta II customer between now and it's closure. GeoEye 1 (or Orbview 5) for GeoEye ( http://www.geoeye.com/products/imagery/geoeye1/default.htm ) COSMO 3 for ASI ( http://www.telespazio.it/cosmo.html ) Totally ignoring COTS, you consider the Taurus II a Delta II replacement, but not the Falcon 9. Indeed, you are quick to dismiss the Falcon 9 entirely both here and elsewhere. Why? What is it that you know that MDA, Avanti and Bigelow do not? Doug Those aren't firm contracts. Still are place holders. OSC has a proven track record and Spacex doesn't. OSC has an NLS contract. As for MDA, Avanti and Bigelow, no different than what Hughes Space did on Delta III and H-II. |
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Feb 21 2008, 04:44 PM
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#10
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1018 Joined: 29-November 05 From: Seattle, WA, USA Member No.: 590 |
OSC has a proven track record and Spacex doesn't. OSC has an NLS contract. But this is not the argument you originally presented! You said Falcon 9 couldn't replace the Delta II "because it's an EELV and priced to match." From the info that seems to be available to the public, though, it will cost less and lift more -- assuming SpaceX can really deliver, of course. It's okay to pour cold water on everyone's fanciful ideas -- in a place like this, someone has to -- but your feedback should be truthful. Especially when you're using NSF's name to back it up. --Greg |
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Feb 21 2008, 05:41 PM
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#11
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Member Group: Members Posts: 321 Joined: 6-April 06 From: Cape Canaveral Member No.: 734 |
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