Gut feeling... |
Gut feeling... |
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#1
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![]() Member ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Members Posts: 813 Joined: 8-February 04 From: Arabia Terra Member No.: 12 ![]() |
Something I have not posted online before...
Back in 2003, as four spacecraft approached Mars, I wrote down on a piece of paper my guess (based on nothing more than public information & gut feeling) at what each craft's chance of success (either at landing or orbital insertion) might be. My guesses were: Nozomi: 15% Beagle 2: 20% MER A: 60% MER B: 60% Mars Express: 85% In 2005 I guessed that MRO had a 90% chance of success Now, in 2008, I'm going to put a figure on Phoenix. That figure is: 55% What do you think? Too low? Too high? |
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#2
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Founder ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Chairman Posts: 14433 Joined: 8-February 04 Member No.: 1 ![]() |
I've been trying to figure this out for myself. I decided that Phoenix has a better chance than Lewis Hamilton has of not winning the Monaco Grand Prix.
67% is the figure I've come up with. 2/3rds - which, by chance, is the ratio of powered decent landings on Mars. Doug |
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#3
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![]() Interplanetary Dumpster Diver ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Admin Posts: 4404 Joined: 17-February 04 From: Powell, TN Member No.: 33 ![]() |
With all the MPL discussion and the fact that we haven't found it, I am left wondering about something. MARDI on Phoenix was turned off because of fear that it would interfere with the EDL sequence and cause the mission to crash. I wonder if that is what did MPL in? If the generally accepted failure mode is wrong, this would be a favorite of mine (in terms of preference, not necessarily likelihood), because Phoenix has already worked around it.
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