Gut feeling... |
Gut feeling... |
May 22 2008, 08:15 PM
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#1
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Member Group: Members Posts: 813 Joined: 8-February 04 From: Arabia Terra Member No.: 12 |
Something I have not posted online before...
Back in 2003, as four spacecraft approached Mars, I wrote down on a piece of paper my guess (based on nothing more than public information & gut feeling) at what each craft's chance of success (either at landing or orbital insertion) might be. My guesses were: Nozomi: 15% Beagle 2: 20% MER A: 60% MER B: 60% Mars Express: 85% In 2005 I guessed that MRO had a 90% chance of success Now, in 2008, I'm going to put a figure on Phoenix. That figure is: 55% What do you think? Too low? Too high? |
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May 22 2008, 08:54 PM
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#2
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Founder Group: Chairman Posts: 14433 Joined: 8-February 04 Member No.: 1 |
I've been trying to figure this out for myself. I decided that Phoenix has a better chance than Lewis Hamilton has of not winning the Monaco Grand Prix.
67% is the figure I've come up with. 2/3rds - which, by chance, is the ratio of powered decent landings on Mars. Doug |
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May 22 2008, 09:03 PM
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#3
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Senior Member Group: Admin Posts: 4763 Joined: 15-March 05 From: Glendale, AZ Member No.: 197 |
I'll say 83% which is the ratio of successful U.S. Mars landing attempts (5 of 6).
-------------------- If Occam had heard my theory, things would be very different now.
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May 23 2008, 04:04 AM
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#4
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2922 Joined: 14-February 06 From: Very close to the Pyrénées Mountains (France) Member No.: 682 |
I'll say 83% which is the ratio of successful U.S. Mars landing attempts (5 of 6). So, It'll be 86% when Phoenix will be on the ground? Not enough, not enough. As said by Nprev this doesn't include the learning curve. Rui, I'm not going to say it during Euro 2008, but I'm with you on this -------------------- |
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