Gut feeling... |
Gut feeling... |
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#1
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![]() Member ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Members Posts: 813 Joined: 8-February 04 From: Arabia Terra Member No.: 12 ![]() |
Something I have not posted online before...
Back in 2003, as four spacecraft approached Mars, I wrote down on a piece of paper my guess (based on nothing more than public information & gut feeling) at what each craft's chance of success (either at landing or orbital insertion) might be. My guesses were: Nozomi: 15% Beagle 2: 20% MER A: 60% MER B: 60% Mars Express: 85% In 2005 I guessed that MRO had a 90% chance of success Now, in 2008, I'm going to put a figure on Phoenix. That figure is: 55% What do you think? Too low? Too high? |
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#2
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Senior Member ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Moderator Posts: 4279 Joined: 19-April 05 From: .br at .es Member No.: 253 ![]() |
Well, after a very detailed and accurate analysis --I left outside, checked the weather and direction of the wind. Had a drink at the coffee machine and it was quite ok. My email this early morning had no input from by boss-- I found the probability is 75%.
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