Gut feeling... |
Gut feeling... |
May 22 2008, 08:15 PM
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#1
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Member Group: Members Posts: 813 Joined: 8-February 04 From: Arabia Terra Member No.: 12 |
Something I have not posted online before...
Back in 2003, as four spacecraft approached Mars, I wrote down on a piece of paper my guess (based on nothing more than public information & gut feeling) at what each craft's chance of success (either at landing or orbital insertion) might be. My guesses were: Nozomi: 15% Beagle 2: 20% MER A: 60% MER B: 60% Mars Express: 85% In 2005 I guessed that MRO had a 90% chance of success Now, in 2008, I'm going to put a figure on Phoenix. That figure is: 55% What do you think? Too low? Too high? |
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May 23 2008, 07:31 AM
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#2
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1276 Joined: 25-November 04 Member No.: 114 |
Nozomi: 10%
Beagle 2: 50% MER A: 90% MER B: 90% Mars Express: 5% MRO 95% Phoenix 95% Up until the rockets fire. Just watching the animation makes the hair on my arms stand. The last 5 mins 5% |
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May 23 2008, 10:35 AM
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#3
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2921 Joined: 14-February 06 From: Very close to the Pyrénées Mountains (France) Member No.: 682 |
Phoenix 95% Up until the rockets fire. Just watching the animation makes the hair on my arms stand. The last 5 mins 5% So it's 5% only for you? -------------------- |
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May 23 2008, 12:49 PM
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#4
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Forum Contributor Group: Members Posts: 1372 Joined: 8-February 04 From: North East Florida, USA. Member No.: 11 |
Frankly I am amazed ANY of them ever work, because it all seems very very complicated to me. I watched the EDL landing and when Pheonix hits the ground, er I mean land, it sure comes to an abrupt stop. Can someone tell me the G forces at landing, and what the lander is designed to withstand ?
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