Gut feeling... |
Gut feeling... |
May 22 2008, 08:15 PM
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Member Group: Members Posts: 813 Joined: 8-February 04 From: Arabia Terra Member No.: 12 |
Something I have not posted online before...
Back in 2003, as four spacecraft approached Mars, I wrote down on a piece of paper my guess (based on nothing more than public information & gut feeling) at what each craft's chance of success (either at landing or orbital insertion) might be. My guesses were: Nozomi: 15% Beagle 2: 20% MER A: 60% MER B: 60% Mars Express: 85% In 2005 I guessed that MRO had a 90% chance of success Now, in 2008, I'm going to put a figure on Phoenix. That figure is: 55% What do you think? Too low? Too high? |
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May 23 2008, 01:26 PM
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Founder Group: Chairman Posts: 14433 Joined: 8-February 04 Member No.: 1 |
5mph they keep saying - 2.5ish m/sec
2.5 m/sec to a standstill in, say, .25 seconds - 1G. Atmospheric entry and the chute-deployment snap will be much higher than that, 6, 7, 8, 9 G sort of figures. Doug |
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