Gut feeling... |
Gut feeling... |
May 22 2008, 08:15 PM
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#1
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Member Group: Members Posts: 813 Joined: 8-February 04 From: Arabia Terra Member No.: 12 |
Something I have not posted online before...
Back in 2003, as four spacecraft approached Mars, I wrote down on a piece of paper my guess (based on nothing more than public information & gut feeling) at what each craft's chance of success (either at landing or orbital insertion) might be. My guesses were: Nozomi: 15% Beagle 2: 20% MER A: 60% MER B: 60% Mars Express: 85% In 2005 I guessed that MRO had a 90% chance of success Now, in 2008, I'm going to put a figure on Phoenix. That figure is: 55% What do you think? Too low? Too high? |
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May 23 2008, 02:29 PM
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#2
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Senior Member Group: Moderator Posts: 2262 Joined: 9-February 04 From: Melbourne - Oz Member No.: 16 |
Me too, I've already got that nervous-butterfly's-in-stomach feeling., I'm going to be wreck come Sunday night!
Made the decision today to take Tuesday and Wednesday off work next week, in addition to the Bank Holiday Monday, to recover and work full time on Phoenix data*. * That in the spirit of this thread I'm 90% sure we'll have by then. James -------------------- |
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