Gut feeling... |
Gut feeling... |
May 22 2008, 08:15 PM
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#1
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Member Group: Members Posts: 813 Joined: 8-February 04 From: Arabia Terra Member No.: 12 |
Something I have not posted online before...
Back in 2003, as four spacecraft approached Mars, I wrote down on a piece of paper my guess (based on nothing more than public information & gut feeling) at what each craft's chance of success (either at landing or orbital insertion) might be. My guesses were: Nozomi: 15% Beagle 2: 20% MER A: 60% MER B: 60% Mars Express: 85% In 2005 I guessed that MRO had a 90% chance of success Now, in 2008, I'm going to put a figure on Phoenix. That figure is: 55% What do you think? Too low? Too high? |
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May 23 2008, 03:31 PM
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#2
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Member Group: Members Posts: 214 Joined: 30-December 05 Member No.: 628 |
This is what markets are good for. We can all exchange our best guesses, and we all feel a great emotional stake in the outcome. But a pecuniary stake tends to weed out the casual guessers and weight those remaining according to their confidence in a) the quality of their information and their having the experience and judgment to apply it effectively.
An outfit called Intrade has a similar market for the probability of the Google Lunar X prize being won by 2012. http://www.intrade.com It's probably not the only one. I think Lloyd's used to quote odds on a whole range of possible binary events. It's too late to do anything about Phoenix over the weekend, but maybe we should encourage the Intrade people to float a similar issue based on the successful landing of MSL. If it seems crass to think about monetary payoffs when the really important value is something like "raising the consciousness of humankind" then pledge your future proceeds to the Planetary Society! I think I'll be on the sidelines though, because my expertise is pretty much on the level of keeping my fingers crossed. Accordingly, if pressed, my best guess would have to be 50-50 with no apologies to either side. Anyway, it's just our left brains that feel compelled to quote odds about the probabilities. There is complete unanimity with respect to our hopes. 100% probability on that. tanjent |
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