Gut feeling... |
Gut feeling... |
May 22 2008, 08:15 PM
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#1
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Member Group: Members Posts: 813 Joined: 8-February 04 From: Arabia Terra Member No.: 12 |
Something I have not posted online before...
Back in 2003, as four spacecraft approached Mars, I wrote down on a piece of paper my guess (based on nothing more than public information & gut feeling) at what each craft's chance of success (either at landing or orbital insertion) might be. My guesses were: Nozomi: 15% Beagle 2: 20% MER A: 60% MER B: 60% Mars Express: 85% In 2005 I guessed that MRO had a 90% chance of success Now, in 2008, I'm going to put a figure on Phoenix. That figure is: 55% What do you think? Too low? Too high? |
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Guest_Zvezdichko_* |
May 23 2008, 07:38 AM
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Guests |
With regards to your opinion, the powered descent phase is just 40 seconds, not 5 minutes.
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May 23 2008, 03:47 PM
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1276 Joined: 25-November 04 Member No.: 114 |
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May 23 2008, 03:56 PM
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#4
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2173 Joined: 28-December 04 From: Florida, USA Member No.: 132 |
Im so worried. Ok, but 5%? Even the most pessimistic outlook should have it at no lower than 50%. All this worry about the powered landing has me wondering how TWO Vikings ever made it to the ground in one piece, not to mention countless (by me anyway) Lunar landers -- including manned! I think powered landings are a pretty well explored territory. Heck, that last 30 seconds could well be the most sure part of the EDL sequence! I've got myself convinced anyway. |
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