Gut feeling... |
Gut feeling... |
May 22 2008, 08:15 PM
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#1
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Member Group: Members Posts: 813 Joined: 8-February 04 From: Arabia Terra Member No.: 12 |
Something I have not posted online before...
Back in 2003, as four spacecraft approached Mars, I wrote down on a piece of paper my guess (based on nothing more than public information & gut feeling) at what each craft's chance of success (either at landing or orbital insertion) might be. My guesses were: Nozomi: 15% Beagle 2: 20% MER A: 60% MER B: 60% Mars Express: 85% In 2005 I guessed that MRO had a 90% chance of success Now, in 2008, I'm going to put a figure on Phoenix. That figure is: 55% What do you think? Too low? Too high? |
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Guest_Zvezdichko_* |
May 23 2008, 03:59 PM
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#2
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Guests |
You are right, of course, but this technology hasn't been used for decades! A lot of people working on the projects have already retired. That's a lot of experience to lose!
Also, the pulsed thrusters. I have some worries on how they keep the spacecraft stable. |
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May 23 2008, 04:03 PM
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#3
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2173 Joined: 28-December 04 From: Florida, USA Member No.: 132 |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 4th June 2024 - 04:30 AM |
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