Gut feeling... |
Gut feeling... |
May 22 2008, 08:15 PM
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#1
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Member Group: Members Posts: 813 Joined: 8-February 04 From: Arabia Terra Member No.: 12 |
Something I have not posted online before...
Back in 2003, as four spacecraft approached Mars, I wrote down on a piece of paper my guess (based on nothing more than public information & gut feeling) at what each craft's chance of success (either at landing or orbital insertion) might be. My guesses were: Nozomi: 15% Beagle 2: 20% MER A: 60% MER B: 60% Mars Express: 85% In 2005 I guessed that MRO had a 90% chance of success Now, in 2008, I'm going to put a figure on Phoenix. That figure is: 55% What do you think? Too low? Too high? |
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May 24 2008, 05:12 AM
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#2
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Newbie Group: Members Posts: 2 Joined: 16-May 08 Member No.: 4113 |
I worked on MPL, and MER (and Mars Observer as well for what it is
worth) and I can tell you when it works, it feels great. When it doesn't work, it feels sort of like major organ removal with a rusty spoon, and no anesthesia. ... about our chances on Sunday? I feel good. I am at peace. I know the lengths this project has gone to in an effort to successfully land and operate this vehicle. But at this point, whatever is gonna happen, is gonna happen. I do sort of get amused at the interest with which the folk in the Mission Support Area watch the arriving telemetry. They will devour every ounce of information as if catching some behavioral mis-step early might lead to taking actions that could save the day. In reality, by the time signal reaches Earth that the vehicle has entered the atmosphere, the Lander is already on the surface... in one condition or another. We might as well read about it in the newspaper. Enjoy the ride on Sunday fella's. I will be in the Operations Center in Tucson. You will recognize me in the corner of the televised images as the guy not jumping up an down when we get signal from the surface. Whatever is gonna happen, is gonna happen. |
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May 24 2008, 05:40 AM
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#3
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2173 Joined: 28-December 04 From: Florida, USA Member No.: 132 |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 4th June 2024 - 04:36 AM |
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