Gut feeling... |
Gut feeling... |
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#1
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![]() Member ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Members Posts: 813 Joined: 8-February 04 From: Arabia Terra Member No.: 12 ![]() |
Something I have not posted online before...
Back in 2003, as four spacecraft approached Mars, I wrote down on a piece of paper my guess (based on nothing more than public information & gut feeling) at what each craft's chance of success (either at landing or orbital insertion) might be. My guesses were: Nozomi: 15% Beagle 2: 20% MER A: 60% MER B: 60% Mars Express: 85% In 2005 I guessed that MRO had a 90% chance of success Now, in 2008, I'm going to put a figure on Phoenix. That figure is: 55% What do you think? Too low? Too high? |
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Guest_Sunspot_* |
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#2
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Guests ![]() |
Nozomi: 15% Beagle 2: 20% MER A: 60% MER B: 60% Mars Express: 85% Nozomi - 5% MER A - 65% MER B - 65% MRO - 85% Beagle 2 - 0% ![]() ![]() Phoenix - 70% I just didn't get excited at all about Beagle 2, when I checked the news to see if they had received the expected signal - and they hadn't- I didnt feel anything - no disappointement at all - weird. ![]() Good Luck to everyone on the Phoenix team ![]() |
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