KBO encounters Options

[xtruel]

Hi,

I’m regular follower of NH and I’m also interested in the 2nd leg of the mission, i.e the 2016+ KBOs encounters. Does anyone know when operations about this leg (starting with searching objects of interest with HST or some other earth-based means, I suppose) are expected to begin ?

[Greg Hullender]

Trouble is, it'll take NH almost 10 years to go 40 AU, and the inner edge of the Oort Cloud is estimated to be about 2000 AU out. A 500-year extended mission is probably asking for too much. :-)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oort_cloud

Since Sedna's the only thing like Sedna, I think it'll be hard to guess that we'll find another before 2015 AND that it'll be reachable by NH.

That does raise an interesting question, though. From the NH mission page: http://pluto.jhuapl.edu/mission/mission_timeline.php it's not clear how much time NH could have to reach a KBO. A ten-year extended mission could roughly reach the perihelion distance of Sedna from the Sun, but is anyone contemplating an XM that long? How long can we reasonably expect NH to work?

--Greg

[Alan Stern]

Trouble is, it'll take NH almost 10 years to go 40 AU, and the inner edge of the Oort Cloud is estimated to be about 2000 AU out. A 500-year extended mission is probably asking for too much. :-)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oort_cloud

Since Sedna's the only thing like Sedna, I think it'll be hard to guess that we'll find another before 2015 AND that it'll be reachable by NH.

That does raise an interesting question, though. From the NH mission page: http://pluto.jhuapl.edu/mission/mission_timeline.php it's not clear how much time NH could have to reach a KBO. A ten-year extended mission could roughly reach the perihelion distance of Sedna from the Sun, but is anyone contemplating an XM that long? How long can we reasonably expect NH to work?

--Greg

We're hoping for a 4-6 year extended mission (XM), taking us to perhaps 50 AU. The heart of the KBO population is at 42-43 AU, and after that it thins out. By 55 AU we're out of the Classical Belt and into the much more dilute Scattered Belt.

We expect to fly by 1 or perhaps 2 KBOs each ~40 km in diameter in the XM. Larger ones are too few and far between to reach with our fuel supply unless we are very lucky, but the statistics are against us.

My job as PI is not to fly as far as we can but to maximize the value of the KB exploration we can achieve. This translates to accomplishing one post-Pluto KBO flyby within 2 or 3 years if we possibly can (to ensure against later failures) and to pick up a second KBO for comparative purposes if possible thereafter.

-Alan