MSL schedule delay? Options

[vjkane]

The most recent Aviation Week and Space Technology (9/8) has the following tidbit in a piece on NASA schedule delays:

"On the robotoic front, the testing schedule for a critical instrument for the Mars Science Laboratory -- dubbed SAM for Sample Analysis at Mars -- may delay launch of the advanced rover from its 2009 planetary window into 2011."

[gallen_53]

My reading of the tea leaves is the whole Mars Program is in serious trouble. JPL tried to do too big of a technological jump from MER to MSL and hit a brick wall. My impression is that we will be shifting away from Mars and focusing more on Venus probes (I am NOT happy about this). Both planets are extremely interesting. If anything MER showed Mars to be more interesting than we realized.

Venus exploration had previously not received the same attention as Mars. This was mainly due to the short life expectancy of anything reaching the Venusian surface (3 hours tops). It's politically difficult to justify the expense of sending something to another world that only survives for a couple hours (same problem with atmospheric probes to gas giants). That sort of argument was one of the reasons why MER was such an excellent concept, i.e. provides good science and political returns at a reasonable cost. Venus exploration has an additional political advantage in that it can be leverage against Global Warming concerns, i.e. the Venusian climate was ruined by a CO2 thermal runaway. Also Venusian EDL (Entry, Descent and Landing) tends to be easier than Martian EDL due to the denser atmosphere of Venus. The obvious downside with Venus is the horrific conditions on the Venusian surface, i.e. once you're below 50 km altitiude, it's raining sulfuric acid and you have to worry about supercritical CO2. I'm hoping we can get a Venus program up-and-running before the Mars program turns into a complete train wreck. We need to have some planetary program running in order to maintain our engineering expertise.

[mcaplinger]

My reading of the tea leaves is the whole Mars Program is in serious trouble. JPL tried to do too big of a technological jump from MER to MSL and hit a brick wall.

Is this view based on anything except your opinion and reading of the media reports?

I would suggest that further discussion on this thread wait for the outcome of the NASA HQ review.

[andrea]

I want to add a "couple" of considerations to the discussion:

- most of the people at JPL working on MSL worked on MER as well, and this includes management; I've read many harsh comments (not necessarily on this site) about mismanagement of the project and I think they are somewhat unfair: they imply either incompetence or malice and do not reflect the technical complexity of the mission, and how hard is to correctly cost a mission such as this years in advance

- the MERs went through the same kind of difficulties both technical and financial; I clearly remember people working their long hours in the testbed and in ATLO wondering if one or two of the rover would not have flown; or if they would have a job in the next few months; some of these young engineers later became the "stars" of the surface mission and now work on MSL; so I sincerely hope everyone working on MSL can keep their spirit up, and work the long hours necessary to make this project unsuccessful.

I do understand the concern that this overrun will reflect necessarily on other projects, and I will disappointed as any of you if that happens.

[gallen_53]

I clearly remember people working their long hours in the testbed and in ATLO wondering if one or two of the rover would not have flown; or if they would have a job in the next few months; some of these young engineers later became the "stars" of the surface mission and now work on MSL; so I sincerely hope everyone working on MSL can keep their spirit up, and work the long hours necessary to make this project unsuccessful.

JPL can be a pressure cooker. During casual conversation with JPL employees, I've heard stories more than once about how many marriages were ruined by Mars Pathfinder or MER. When these big projects go south, it's not uncommon for a fair number of people at JPL to get laid off (sort of like getting frog marched off of Mount Olympus). However it's all worth it in the end. There aren't many other jobs that enables one to brag to their grandchildren about putting something on the surface of Mars or on orbit around Saturn.