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MSL reasons for delay
mcaplinger
post Mar 4 2009, 03:33 PM
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I wanted to make sure that everyone interested sees Adrian Brown's articles at http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1319/1 and http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1318/1 about the technical and budgetary problems with MSL that led to the launch slip. While I can't claim to be privy to the budgetary and political issues at the mission level, the technical discussion seems like a fair summary of the situation as I understand it, at least as good a one as can be gathered from public sources.

People in other forums have complained about errors in these articles, but without giving specific examples or providing any factual basis for their objections. I don't find that very useful. If there are real flaws in this account, I'd be quite interested to know what they are.

p.s. I guess we need to change the name of this subforum. sad.gif


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dvandorn
post Jul 16 2009, 04:40 AM
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Very true, Nick. Especially for revolutionary projects, like the MERs and like MSL.

It's a lot easier to plan a realistic budget for something that's basically been done before than to plan a budget for something that's *never* been done before. The latter tend to vastly underestimate the actual costs that will be incurred during the learning curve-induced episodes of redesign, rework, and retest. This is true of nearly every revolutionary project.

Evolutionary projects, like, say, the design and manufacture of the 737, tend to stay much more within their budgets since aircraft like that generally make use of tried-and-true technology and are being asked to meet performance standards that are very similar to their predecessors', in very well-understood environments. Now, had Boeing in the same timeframe decided to design the 737 as a passenger version of a flying wing (a la the B-2 bomber, et. al.), even if it used the same engines, avionics, etc. as a conventional aircraft, it would end up badly overrunning its budget and take considerably longer to deliver to market than the conventional 737 took.

-the other Doug


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MahFL
post Jul 16 2009, 12:45 PM
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Often a low estimate is the only way to get a project running, everyone knows its going to cost more or take longer. Look at the Boeing Dreamliner, its way way behind the original schedule, also Airbus had major problems with the 380, just to be fair and balanced....... wheel.gif wheel.gif wheel.gif
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stevesliva
post Jul 16 2009, 03:29 PM
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QUOTE (MahFL @ Jul 16 2009, 08:45 AM) *
Look at the Boeing Dreamliner, its way way behind the original schedule


In MSL's defense, at least they blamed actuators and not fasteners for the first big derailment.
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tedstryk
post Jul 16 2009, 06:50 PM
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The problem is that MSL is so much larger in terms of cost in relation to the planetary exploration program. An 18% overrun for it is a lot more money than it would have been for the MERs (18 percent being randomly picked for an example). My real fear is that considering that the very real possibility that something could happen to it (anything from a launch failure to an EDL problem) could have dire consequences for the entire planetary program save perhaps the missions already in flight.


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mcaplinger
post Jul 17 2009, 01:59 AM
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QUOTE (tedstryk @ Jul 16 2009, 10:50 AM) *
The problem is that MSL is so much larger in terms of cost in relation to the planetary exploration program.

You realize that MER cost over $1B, right? MSL is bigger, but only by about 2x.

(I've seen cost estimates for MER as low as $800M, but I don't think that's a fair accounting of various "slush fund" sources.)


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tedstryk
post Jul 17 2009, 03:28 AM
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Right, but that means that x percent overrun is twice as much. When we are talking billions, that is significant. Nothing like an order of magnitude or something, but what I am saying is that a raw comparison of the percent overrun is a bit misleading if you don't factor in the difference in cost. Also, in the case of MER, the money funded two rovers, meaning that it was less susceptible to becoming a total loss due to rotten luck, such as a launch failure.

I agree that this will be a great mission if it succeeds. Fingers crossed.


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Posts in this topic
- mcaplinger   MSL reasons for delay   Mar 4 2009, 03:33 PM
- - djellison   Thanks for linking to these Mike - they're ver...   Mar 4 2009, 03:41 PM
|- - ElkGroveDan   QUOTE (djellison @ Mar 4 2009, 07:41 AM) ...   Mar 4 2009, 04:49 PM
|- - algorimancer   QUOTE (djellison @ Mar 4 2009, 09:41 AM) ...   Mar 5 2009, 08:16 PM
|- - mcaplinger   QUOTE (algorimancer @ Mar 5 2009, 12:16 P...   Mar 5 2009, 09:34 PM
||- - ElkGroveDan   QUOTE (mcaplinger @ Mar 5 2009, 01:34 PM)...   Mar 5 2009, 10:36 PM
|||- - mcaplinger   Forgive me if I lose patience with armchair engine...   Mar 5 2009, 11:20 PM
||- - algorimancer   QUOTE (mcaplinger @ Mar 5 2009, 03:34 PM)...   Mar 6 2009, 01:41 PM
|- - jmcdesign   "In retrospect they might simply have placed ...   Mar 6 2009, 04:23 PM
- - dvandorn   Yeah -- I've been meaning to ask when Phoenix ...   Mar 4 2009, 06:24 PM
|- - tedstryk   I was thinking (and still think) that it would be ...   Mar 4 2009, 08:58 PM
|- - ugordan   QUOTE (dvandorn @ Mar 4 2009, 07:24 PM) I...   Mar 4 2009, 09:04 PM
- - monitorlizard   I had also seen the Adrian Brown essays. In his r...   Mar 5 2009, 03:58 PM
- - stevesliva   You're forgiven. It is armchair-knee-jerk refl...   Mar 6 2009, 12:06 AM
|- - centsworth_II   QUOTE (stevesliva @ Mar 5 2009, 07:06 PM)...   Mar 6 2009, 02:14 AM
|- - mcaplinger   QUOTE (centsworth_II @ Mar 5 2009, 06:14 ...   Mar 6 2009, 03:43 AM
- - djellison   You're thinking of the Stardust Navcam. That...   Mar 6 2009, 12:18 AM
- - stevesliva   To be clear, I did not mean to imply MSSS had some...   Mar 6 2009, 12:35 AM
- - lyford   "Less moving parts!?!?!" Th...   Mar 6 2009, 01:53 AM
- - dvandorn   Let's face it, guys -- anything that has movin...   Mar 6 2009, 03:27 AM
- - djellison   Of course, we have ChemCam as an ultra high res im...   Mar 6 2009, 04:41 PM
- - Cruzeiro do Sul   One question about the RTG in MSL: in front of the...   May 6 2009, 12:45 PM
|- - SpaceListener   QUOTE (Cruzeiro do Sul @ May 6 2009, 06:4...   May 8 2009, 12:42 AM
- - monitorlizard   http://mars.jpl.nasa.gov/msl/mission/technology/po...   May 8 2009, 09:56 AM
|- - Cruzeiro do Sul   5% is a small amount of lost, so we can hope that ...   May 11 2009, 02:34 PM
- - climber   You'll be interested in this .pdf presentation...   Jul 11 2009, 10:38 AM
- - SpaceListener   And hope that these probably existence of solar pa...   Jul 11 2009, 03:06 PM
|- - centsworth_II   QUOTE (SpaceListener @ Jul 11 2009, 10:06...   Jul 11 2009, 03:48 PM
||- - mcaplinger   QUOTE (centsworth_II @ Jul 11 2009, 07:48...   Jul 13 2009, 08:24 PM
||- - helvick   This isn't completely true - vertically placed...   Jul 13 2009, 09:51 PM
|- - djellison   QUOTE (SpaceListener @ Jul 11 2009, 04:06...   Jul 11 2009, 04:45 PM
||- - centsworth_II   QUOTE (djellison @ Jul 11 2009, 11:45 AM)...   Jul 11 2009, 06:44 PM
|- - dtolman   QUOTE (SpaceListener @ Jul 11 2009, 10:06...   Jul 13 2009, 07:48 PM
- - dtolman   Isn't it a little late in the game to figure o...   Jul 13 2009, 07:55 PM
|- - SFJCody   I hope there's a TV documentary crew following...   Jul 13 2009, 08:06 PM
- - SpaceListener   dtolman, I think that this might be a leak news f...   Jul 13 2009, 08:22 PM
|- - dtolman   SpaceListener, The main source of this seems to be...   Jul 14 2009, 01:25 PM
|- - mcaplinger   QUOTE (dtolman @ Jul 14 2009, 06:25 AM) I...   Jul 14 2009, 01:53 PM
|- - dtolman   mcaplinger - thanks for the clarification. It can ...   Jul 14 2009, 02:17 PM
|- - mcaplinger   QUOTE (dtolman @ Jul 14 2009, 06:17 AM) D...   Jul 14 2009, 02:26 PM
- - Enceladus75   I think MSL was just too big a leap, technology wi...   Jul 16 2009, 01:52 AM
- - BrianL   I would say that Spirit and Oppy were a much bigge...   Jul 16 2009, 02:37 AM
- - dvandorn   Brian? Read "Roving Mars" by Steve Squy...   Jul 16 2009, 02:55 AM
|- - mcaplinger   QUOTE (dvandorn @ Jul 15 2009, 07:55 PM) ...   Jul 16 2009, 03:42 AM
- - nprev   To be fair (and not to stray OT), major projects o...   Jul 16 2009, 04:19 AM
- - dvandorn   Very true, Nick. Especially for revolutionary pro...   Jul 16 2009, 04:40 AM
|- - MahFL   Often a low estimate is the only way to get a proj...   Jul 16 2009, 12:45 PM
|- - stevesliva   QUOTE (MahFL @ Jul 16 2009, 08:45 AM) Loo...   Jul 16 2009, 03:29 PM
|- - tedstryk   The problem is that MSL is so much larger in terms...   Jul 16 2009, 06:50 PM
|- - mcaplinger   QUOTE (tedstryk @ Jul 16 2009, 10:50 AM) ...   Jul 17 2009, 01:59 AM
|- - tedstryk   Right, but that means that x percent overrun is tw...   Jul 17 2009, 03:28 AM
- - BrianL   I wasn't suggesting the MERs had an easy road....   Jul 16 2009, 12:50 PM
- - climber   I agree Ted, but if the beast works, who knows wha...   Jul 16 2009, 07:10 PM
|- - SFJCody   I guess another reason MSL has to be such a big ve...   Jul 16 2009, 07:26 PM
- - imipak   QUOTE (Kierkegaard @ 19th century)"Life ...   Jul 16 2009, 08:49 PM
- - centsworth_II   This is the kind of torturous process that leads t...   Jul 16 2009, 08:55 PM
- - peter59   http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8168954....   Jul 27 2009, 08:17 AM
|- - tedstryk   QUOTE (peter59 @ Jul 27 2009, 09:17 AM) h...   Aug 20 2009, 05:45 PM
- - mcaplinger   Hadn't seen anyone discussing the MSL status r...   Oct 16 2009, 11:02 PM
|- - Oersted   Yes, thx so much for digging up this info, I avidl...   Oct 18 2009, 10:13 PM
- - James Sorenson   Ohhh Thanks for pointing that out!, I had not ...   Oct 17 2009, 01:34 AM
- - peter59   More problems, greater costs. This is starting to ...   Oct 21 2009, 01:39 PM
|- - MahFL   Ahh crap, how unlucky, lets hope things turn out o...   Oct 21 2009, 08:20 PM
- - djellison   Given the litigious nature of US law and pending c...   Oct 22 2009, 07:15 AM
- - nprev   (sorry...we need a "deeply-embarrassed-'c...   Oct 22 2009, 07:25 AM
- - Holder of the Two Leashes   Guess I should've added a few "if"s ...   Oct 22 2009, 02:11 PM
- - djellison   As a guidance - if you have to prefix your post wi...   Oct 23 2009, 06:23 PM
- - climber   MSL Readiness to proceed review: http://nasawatch....   Nov 18 2009, 11:06 PM
|- - Greg Hullender   QUOTE (climber @ Nov 18 2009, 03:06 PM) M...   Nov 18 2009, 11:16 PM
- - elakdawalla   I split out some posts about delivery of component...   Jun 12 2010, 02:00 AM


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