Luna 25 lander mission, Russian lander following on from the Soviet-era lunar program |
Luna 25 lander mission, Russian lander following on from the Soviet-era lunar program |
Feb 4 2022, 03:14 AM
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Solar System Cartographer Group: Members Posts: 10192 Joined: 5-April 05 From: Canada Member No.: 227 |
I am starting a new thread for this mission which should fly this year.
Phil -------------------- ... because the Solar System ain't gonna map itself.
Also to be found posting similar content on https://mastodon.social/@PhilStooke Maps for download (free PD: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/comm...Cartography.pdf NOTE: everything created by me which I post on UMSF is considered to be in the public domain (NOT CC, public domain) |
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Aug 21 2023, 04:22 AM
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 4252 Joined: 17-January 05 Member No.: 152 |
And presumably the "expected success probability" for something like ESA Mars landings needs to be taken with a healthy grain of salt, since there have been no successes...
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Aug 22 2023, 01:21 AM
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Member Group: Members Posts: 611 Joined: 23-February 07 From: Occasionally in Columbia, MD Member No.: 1764 |
And presumably the "expected success probability" for something like ESA Mars landings needs to be taken with a healthy grain of salt, since there have been no successes... You miss the whole point of the Cromwell-Laplace estimate (discussed in the supplement to the paper - the success probability estimator of most use may be informally termed the Cromwell‐Laplace estimate, equal to (k+1)/(n+2) where k is the number of successes out of n trials. It essentially encodes the idea that one can never be 100% certain (from Oliver Cromwell’s appeal “I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you may be mistaken” to the Church of Scotland in 1650). Equivalently, it introduces the possibility that one’s luck could run out and the next trial may fail, even in an otherwise unblemished record so far.) In effect k+1/n+2 dilutes the track record by the prospect that the next attempt could go either way. It embodies the prior that no system is 100% reliable or 100% unreliable, and starts with a 50:50 guess if there is no track record, then asymptotically tends as data accumulate to the frequentist probability k/n. So 'the grain of salt' is baked into the method via Bayes rule. |
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