NASA Dawn asteroid mission told to ‘stand down’ Options

[Rakhir]

NASA Dawn Asteroid Mission Told To ‘Stand Down’ .

The decision to stand down, according to SPACE.com sources, appears related to budget-related measures and workforce cutbacks at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California.

http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/051107_dawn_qown.html

Rakhir

[Guest_BruceMoomaw_*]

The trouble with blithely doing this for Dawn is that -- unlike the MERs -- it was accepted as the result of a competition in which one of the supposed central ground rules for the proposing teams is that you do NOT exceed the maximum possible cost that you stated in your proposal without getting cancelled. Allow a mission to seriously break this rule, and you open the gates of Hell: EVERY team will deliberately understate its mission's real cost, and then look innocently amazed when they tell you that they need lots more money than they thought, and that they're sure you'll provide it...

It may have been a mistake to decide to break this rule for Messenger, and in fact NASA did so only after considerable wrangling. They've already broken it much more seriously for Dawn -- they'll fly it, albeit delayed, even if it undergoes a cost cap overrun of fully 1/3. But no higher. Nor should they -- and maybe they shouldn't fly it even if the cost doesn't go that high.

By the way, Kepler has also totally shattered its cost cap -- its cost is now $500 million. However, as Andy Dantzler told us, that's now the problem of the Universe Division -- which now has custody of the Kepler project, and which has already decided to adopt Kepler as a "Strategic" mission that is therefore immune from the Discovery cost-cancellation rule.

[mars loon]

The trouble with blithely doing this for Dawn is that -- unlike the MERs -- it was accepted as the result of a competition in which one of the supposed central ground rules for the proposing teams is that you do NOT exceed the maximum possible cost that you stated in your proposal without getting cancelled.  Allow a mission to seriously break this rule, and you open the gates of Hell: EVERY team will deliberately understate its mission's real cost, and then look innocently amazed when they tell you that they need lots more money than they thought, and that they're sure you'll provide it...

It may have been a mistake to decide to break this rule for Messenger, and in fact NASA did so only after considerable wrangling.  They've already broken it much more seriously for Dawn -- they'll fly it, albeit delayed, even if it undergoes a cost cap overrun of fully 1/3.  But no higher.  Nor should they -- and maybe they shouldn't fly it even if the cost doesn't go that high.

By the way, Kepler has also totally shattered its cost cap -- its cost is now $500 million.  However, as Andy Dantzler told us, that's now the problem of the Universe Division -- which now has custody of the Kepler project, and which has already decided to adopt Kepler as a "Strategic" mission that is therefore immune from the Discovery cost-cancellation rule.

While your point on cost caps is valid, you have so enlarged it that I respecfully disagree with your point of view.

Science, not bean counting should be the driving force in these decisions!!!

It makes no sense to have a nearly complete spacecraft sit on the ground vs. launched to make ground breaking discoveries especially in light of the new Ceres Observations by Hubble.

It also makes no sense to "mothball" Deep Impact, which thankfully may now proceed with a follow on target

Finally, great news about the Europa Orbiter, thats long overdue. As is a follow-up to Cassini-Huygens

[gpurcell]

While your point on cost caps is valid, you have so enlarged it that I respecfully disagree with your point of view. 

Science, not bean counting should be the driving force in these decisions!!!

It makes no sense to have a nearly complete spacecraft sit on the ground vs. launched to make ground breaking discoveries especially in light of the new Ceres Observations by Hubble.

It also makes no sense to "mothball" Deep Impact, which thankfully may now proceed with a follow on target 

Finally, great news about the Europa Orbiter, thats long overdue.    As is a follow-up to Cassini-Huygens

As long as NASA exists in a world of limited resources, efficient allocation of those resources is critical. A few thoughts.

First, Dawn and Messenger's experiences (and I guess Kepler as well...I didn't realize they had blown their cost cap that badly Bruce) bring into question the entire Discovery program. Don't fall into the "sunk cost fallacy." The cost-benefit analysis to go forward with Dawn has to include both the funding stream to Dawn in future years as well as the consequences for the rest of the program. We have at least one "nearly complete spacecraft" sitting on the ground right now--Triana--and I don't hear much call from anyone for THAT to be launched.

Second, I think it should be fairly obvious that tight cost constraints on a mission will decrease both the science return (as had occured extensively during the Dawn mission planning) as well as the risk the mission will return very limited data due to a technical fault.

Third, I disagree with you about Deep Impact. There should be no expectation of extended missions on Discovery-class missions. The flaws in that spacecraft truly make me question the value of it going forward.

The Discovery effort is suffering from Goldin's insistence on asking for too much from the limited funds available. I hope they choose achievable missions for the next competititon or I fear it will be the last one.

[ljk4-1]

Third, I disagree with you about Deep Impact.  There should be no expectation of extended missions on Discovery-class missions.  The flaws in that spacecraft truly make me question the value of it going forward.

What were Deep Impact's flaws, other than the fact that everyone seemed to think that the impact crater would somehow be clear of debris right away so that the flyby probe could image into the comet?

How much will it cost to send DI to another celestial body? What science can it accomplish?