China Announces Manned Lunar Mission In 2017 |
China Announces Manned Lunar Mission In 2017 |
Nov 5 2005, 04:41 AM
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Member Group: Members Posts: 123 Joined: 21-February 05 Member No.: 175 |
Several published reports today finally disclosed China’s much anticipated long-term human spaceflight aspirations. Audacious would be an understatement:
EVA in the next few years A space station by 2010 Robotic exploration of the Moon Human landing on the Moon by 2017 Helium-3 mining on the Moon Observatories on the Moon Bold? Yes. Difficult? Very. Expensive? Without a doubt. Crazy? Maybe. Overambitious? Maybe. A ruse? Maybe. Possible? Yes. If the national will to do so exists in the long-term. Likely? Who really knows? Very symbolically, the day before, the NASA administrator spoke before the relevant congressional subcommittee and told them flat-out that NASA simply does not have nearly enough money to carry out its mandate. They cannot fly the shuttle in any quantity, finish the ISS in whatever form, or get to the moon at all, with the monies currently available. Whether that needed extra money will ever come is still a very open question. Political support for human spaceflight in the United States is currently lukewarm at best, and outright hostile at worst. Essentially, if the United States as a nation and society does not recommit itself to human space exploration in the very near future, it will falter and possibly disappear from the endeavor over the next decade. This is not my prediction, but the prediction of many experts in the US. Although predicting the future is foggy at the best of times, the general trend lines here are unmistakable: China is aiming to be a dominant, if not the dominant, player in human spaceflight. It may take time - but they will get there sooner or later. The United States on the other hand seems uncertain, or possibly unwilling, to remain a major player. It is currently in unmistakable decline, in spite of still being the current dominant space power. In 1985, the United States successfully flew 9 Space Shuttle missions in that year alone, including two just two weeks apart. Today, even if all the current shuttle technical problems did not exist, the US could not under any circumstances even come close to matching that ability. It is simply not physically able to do so any more, the institution has been allowed to atrophy and whither. It is in a state of not only negative growth, but negative development. If left on their current trends, those trend lines will meet and cross at some point in the future. The paradigm will have changed, probably permanently. When they will cross is open to debate, but the larger issue is the fact that if left unchecked, the trend lines will cross. Does America have what it takes to reverse the trend? Does America care to? Will it become to human spaceflight what Portugal became to exploring the Americas 500 years ago? Or will it come back from its current state of decline? Will we have to learn Mandarin to really get the most out of the next lunar landing by humans? |
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Nov 6 2005, 04:45 AM
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Newbie Group: Members Posts: 12 Joined: 6-November 05 From: Bexleyheath, Kent, United Kingdom Member No.: 545 |
2017 is a very optomistic target. The Chinese government has not yet given official approval for the development of the 25 tonne to orbit launcher that the Chinese lunar space programme would require. When the go ahead is given it will 6½ years in development.
China has not yet sent a space probe beyond earth orbit. Official approval has not yet been given to an un-manned lunar orbiter. Shenzhou flights are occuring only once every 2 years. The first Chinese space walk will not occur until 2007. The first Chinese manned docking will not occur until the mission after that. The USA came from behind to beat the Soviet Union to the moon. If we are in the midst of a new space race then the USA is miles ahead of China. I suspect the only way we will need to understand Mandarin for the next moon landing is if the mission commander is a Chinese American. -------------------- "Space is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-boggingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the street to the chemist, but that's just peanuts to space."
The Hitch-Hikers Guide to the Galaxy Douglas Adams 1952 - 2001 |
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Apr 18 2006, 04:27 AM
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#3
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Member Group: Members Posts: 307 Joined: 16-March 05 Member No.: 198 |
2017 is a very optomistic target. The Chinese government has not yet given official approval for the development of the 25 tonne to orbit launcher that the Chinese lunar space programme would require. When the go ahead is given it will 6½ years in development. China has not yet sent a space probe beyond earth orbit. Official approval has not yet been given to an un-manned lunar orbiter. 2017 is still more than a decade away. How many space probes had the US sent beyond Earth orbit in 1959? Come to that where were America's plans for a manned lunar landing in 1959? ====== Stephen |
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