Martian Futures, Will man really colonize the planets? |
Martian Futures, Will man really colonize the planets? |
Guest_DonPMitchell_* |
Jul 16 2006, 11:39 PM
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This started out as a reply on the thread about the Bigelow Aerospace station, and why I think it may be goofy, but it is still a step in the right direction.
Space exploration is a magnet for crank science. It's nearly impossible to talk about something like intersteller propulsion and keep people on the same page as real-world physics and engineering. And it's even more difficult to talk about far-reaching ideas like colonizing planets without drifting into the realm of science fiction. But here I go anyway. Consider the famous scenes in 2001, where a NASA official flies to a beautiful space station operated by Pan Am airlines and then on to a Lunar colony. You're looking at a simulated trillion dollar infrastructure, but why was it built? Who is using it? Who is paying for it? How does it make money? What are people doing on the Moon that is worth all this? These are issues that science fiction simply overlooks. As in 2001, the analogy is often drawn between the airline industry and a future spaceflight industry. The difference is, on the Earth there are real destinations to fly to. There are countless social and economic reasons to travel from one populated region to another on the Earth. This is not the same as spending billions of dollars to fly to Mars, pick up a rock and return to Earth. For spaceflight to be practical and large-scale, there must be a reason, there must be a destination. People talk about things like mining helium-3 on the Moon. Both technically and economically that's nonsense. At present, there is nothing remotely valuable enough to pay for the cost of mining and interplanetary transport. But more importantly, these ideas represents a fundamental misconception about wealth, in the sense defined by Adam Smith. Real estate is valuable because people want to live there and work there. Human activity is the true definition of wealth, and human presence is what makes a destination interesting. Thus, colonizing space is a bootstrapping problem. it is a problem in economics, not engineering. If Mars had an atmosphere and a population, it would be of incalculable value, and people would pay to travel there and back. But how do reach that point? The technology of cheaper travel and terriforming Mars is fascinating to speculate about. I believe it could be done almost entirely with robotic technology. But that is not what blocks us from proceeding. The real problem is developing a mechanism for funding, when there is a huge return on investment but a turnaround time of centuries. You would have to create a Martian Futures Market that people have genuine confidence in -- a serious enterprise that makes steady progress, backed by corporations with proven expertise and probably at least one first-world government. Maybe you have to engage people's territorial and competative instincts. Let's say America declared that it was going to unilaterally colonize Mars and annex it? After the obligatory student protest marches all over the world, I believe other nations might start a competing program! And then it's hard for anyone to back down. If both programs make enough progress, investors will want them to merge and cooperate eventually. It is just too expensive to duplicate the effort. |
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Jul 17 2006, 04:10 AM
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Director of Galilean Photography Group: Members Posts: 896 Joined: 15-July 04 From: Austin, TX Member No.: 93 |
Tourism is a viable enterprise for many locations on Earth; why not extraterrestrial as well?
After all, I can show you a picture of the Great Wall or the Pyramids, but it just doesn't equal looking at them in person. Just off the top of my head, there's the Moon, Mars, the Jupiter & Saturn systems as viable destinations for Solar System retirees. Somewhere between zero and the current cost/kg to space, there is an inflection point where space tourism starts to look serious. What is that point? We've seen ppl are willing to pay today to goto LEO. What does that demand curve look like? What happens when the ticket for a MIR/ISS vacation reaches $100,000? $10,000? $1,000? I think around $25,000-$50,000 is where that curve starts increasing rapidly, with the average TPS member willing to make a once-in-a-lifetime trip. So assume $50,000 for a ticket for hauling a person, his effects, consumables, and vehicle to orbit for a two day visit. Just guessing 500kg per person (including a very light space ship!) would need to be hauled off of earth, we need a cost/kg to space of around $100/kg to support a serious tourist industry. Current costs from SpaceX (which are no doubt aggressive) range from $3,000 to $10,000/kg. So it would take a factor of 30x minimum to get a space tourism industry going, which is IMO on the borderline of feasible. r Beyond LEO, the Moon is a viable destination, but Mars and beyond look iffy. Spending that much time in space would require a serious investment in shielding, and in personal time. Engineering-wise, there isn't a limitation on travelling to mars; it's a standard engineering solution to throw money at a problem until it's solved. So a one-off trip to Mars may happen eventually. Economically, I just don't see Mars tourist visits or colonies possible, even for billionaires. But LEO is a definite, with the Moon a maybe, as viable destinations within the foreseeable future. -------------------- Space Enthusiast Richard Hendricks
-- "The engineers, as usual, made a tremendous fuss. Again as usual, they did the job in half the time they had dismissed as being absolutely impossible." --Rescue Party, Arthur C Clarke Mother Nature is the final inspector of all quality. |
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Jul 18 2006, 07:54 AM
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Member Group: Members Posts: 307 Joined: 16-March 05 Member No.: 198 |
Tourism is a viable enterprise for many locations on Earth; why not extraterrestrial as well? After all, I can show you a picture of the Great Wall or the Pyramids, but it just doesn't equal looking at them in person. Just off the top of my head, there's the Moon, Mars, the Jupiter & Saturn systems as viable destinations for Solar System retirees. You're putting the cart before the horse. Tourism is a "viable enterprise for many locations on Earth" only because Earth already has the infrastructure to support it. If Earth had no hotels, no highways, no rail lines, and in particular no (relatively) cheap international air travel while there might still be the occasional tourist going to and fro there would be no tourist trade and thus little if any in the way of tourist dollars. On Earth the tourist trade only really came about after exploration and colonisation were largely if not entirely over. At this stage that will probably be the case for much of the off-Earth tourist trade (except possibly LEO). In particular note also that much of the infrastructure on Earth the tourist trade uses--eg highways, rail lines, and most airports--were generally built for purposes other than catering for tourists. The tourist trade uses them, but it was not required to build them. If it had to build all such things itself it would be far less viable. ====== Stephen |
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Jul 18 2006, 05:12 PM
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#4
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Member Group: Members Posts: 809 Joined: 11-March 04 Member No.: 56 |
Tourism is a "viable enterprise for many locations on Earth" only because Earth already has the infrastructure to support it. If Earth had no hotels, no highways, no rail lines, and in particular no (relatively) cheap international air travel while there might still be the occasional tourist going to and fro there would be no tourist trade and thus little if any in the way of tourist dollars. On Earth the tourist trade only really came about after exploration and colonisation were largely if not entirely over. At this stage that will probably be the case for much of the off-Earth tourist trade (except possibly LEO). In particular note also that much of the infrastructure on Earth the tourist trade uses--eg highways, rail lines, and most airports--were generally built for purposes other than catering for tourists. The tourist trade uses them, but it was not required to build them. If it had to build all such things itself it would be far less viable. However, the trade in supporting and guiding mountain-climbers (an increasing number of whom are really "tourists") takes people into areas with very little infrastructure, and what little infrastructure exists was built by climbers. These are also very hostile, dangerous areas where there has always been a much higher mortality rate than anything NASA would find acceptable. But people still pay to climb Everest and other, even more dangerous peaks. |
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Jul 19 2006, 01:18 AM
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Member Group: Members Posts: 307 Joined: 16-March 05 Member No.: 198 |
However, the trade in supporting and guiding mountain-climbers (an increasing number of whom are really "tourists") takes people into areas with very little infrastructure, and what little infrastructure exists was built by climbers. These are also very hostile, dangerous areas where there has always been a much higher mortality rate than anything NASA would find acceptable. But people still pay to climb Everest and other, even more dangerous peaks. I guess it all depends on what you mean by "infrastructure". There may be no infrastructure as such to speak of in mountainous areas themselves, but you still have to reach your mountain in order to climb it. For example, if you lived in the United States and you wanted to climb Mt Everest chances are you would fly to Nepal by jet, then travel by some kind of vehicle to the vicinity of Everest. Only then would you start hiking. Along the way--at Kathmandu say--you might stay in a hotel or two for the night. At Everest itself there might be a base camps which you would be able to available yourself of. There might even be a well-worn trail up the mountain you would be expected--or at least advised--to keep to. All of this counts as "infrastructure". If it did not exist the Mt Everest climbing industry would not exist. Or at least it would be far smaller than I understand it presently is because the tourists & others who might want to climb it would for the most part be unable to reach it. ====== Stephen |
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