After Victoria..., .. what next? |
After Victoria..., .. what next? |
May 28 2007, 02:07 PM
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#1
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The Poet Dude Group: Moderator Posts: 5551 Joined: 15-March 04 From: Kendal, Cumbria, UK Member No.: 60 |
I know we've had rather light-hearted discussions about this before, with most people agreeing that Oppy is likely to end her days inside or on the edge of Victoria Crater, simply because there's nothing else to investigate within reach, but has Steve S got it in his mind that Oppy will head off somewhere else after Victoria? This report could be read in a way that suggests that...
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May 30 2007, 08:06 AM
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#2
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Founder Group: Chairman Posts: 14434 Joined: 8-February 04 Member No.: 1 |
In the context of Opportunity - a trip to Ithaca would be as much as 5 years of not-very-pretty-pictures-at-all
Doug |
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May 30 2007, 11:08 AM
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#3
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Member Group: Members Posts: 307 Joined: 16-March 05 Member No.: 198 |
Unless I see images of that very large crater to the ESE making an EXCELLENT case for going there and HiRISE images documenting the entire route showing it to be in any way feasable - I can see no point in trying to get there when all current indicators suggest it would be a not much more than a suicide mission into a dune field we would never leave. A crater which a rover can never leave is surely as much of a suicide mission as a dune field it cannot leave, even if the useful science takes a little longer to run out at one than the other. Or for that matter a crater whose vicinity it can never leave (without "an EXCELLENT case for going [elsew]here" and "HiRISE images documenting the entire route") for fear of falling into another Purgatory-style trap. Taking Endurance to Victoria (including it's two halts for technical problems etc ) it's a commitment of about 5 years driving. There's not point doing the "100m a sol x Y days = X metres a week" maths - it doesn't work. It never really has apart from primary missions on easy driving ground. Gee, Doug, it's a good thing poor Opportunity can't hear you writing the poor thing off like that. I prefer to think of it as following in the footsteps of other five year plans of exploration... "Mars...the final frontier. In the context of Opportunity - a trip to Ithaca would be as much as 5 years of not-very-pretty-pictures-at-all On the other hand, to quote a cliche, nothing ventured nothing gained . By which I mean that if way back at Opportunity's days at Endurance you knew about those dune fields to the south and the possibility if not probability of the rover getting trapped in a Purgatory would you have been arguing for Opportunity to potter around Endurance instead for the remainder of its days instead of venturing south to Victoria? The possibility that Opportunity MIGHT get stuck again is (IMHO) surely not in itself a reason for not going to new places to see what science it can do there, any more than the possibility of death was a reason for polar explorers like Amundsen, Scott, and Shackleton to stay away from the deadly hazards of Antarctica. Are we to start treating Opportunity like a cosseted child wrapped in proverbial cottonwool to protect it from the hazards of life (on Mars)? It's prime mission is long over. Way way over in fact! It is now into extra time. I'd have thought this should be the period when its masters can start to be a little more adventurous with it than they were able to back in its prime mission days. (Plus I also have faith in the ability of its engineers to get it out of seemingly inextricable situations, unlike ye of lesser faith. ) ====== Stephen |
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May 30 2007, 12:03 PM
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#4
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Founder Group: Chairman Posts: 14434 Joined: 8-February 04 Member No.: 1 |
Stephen - have you looked at the HiRISE image to the SE of Victoria?
Please do - then come back and tell me you think heading into that is a good idea - come back and say yes, you think Opportunity can cross 20km of mixed terrain including very large sand dunes with no obvious way around them. I'm being serious. Go and look at it - and can you HONESTLY say you think we can get through it with a vehicle with a stuck steering actuator and a history off getting stuck in fairly modest dunes - three times already. Be bold, be brave, go exploring - I agree. Jump off a metaphorical cliff? No thanks. This is a PRICELESS asset we're talking about. We can spend another two year at Victoria crater doing good science that we can get to. It's here - it's extraordinary - it's feasable. Then - there's stuff we rushed past at Erebus - we KNOW we can get back there. There's exposed rock that is perhaps 2-3-4km to the SW that would be tough to get to - but it could be interesting. Then there's this crater that's half a decade of driving away over terrain we already know to be hazardous to the MER desgn. I thought Victoria was a brave option - but appropriately so - a 50/50 shot that was worth doing for the science it might offer. There was nothing left to do at Endurance - it was the best option available given the data available. We didn't know that Purgatory was sat there. Given the data available now - were Opportunity sat at the Heatshield - Victoria would still be the best option. Now - sat at Victoria - Ithaca is not a 50/50 shot. I don't even rate it as a 1/99 shot. It's not a case of 'might' get stuck. Opportunity would have a dozen episodes like Jammerbugt. If we had a Spirit like wheel failure - it would be even harder to get out of those sorts of situations. With the data we have now - with the evidence infront of us - the orbital images of the terrain to the SE of Victoria and comparing it to the terrain we have observed directly - with a knowledge that the driving wheels have a finite life that has already seen one wheel of the twelve on the surface fail - I honestly believe that saying we should drive to Ithaca is nothing short of crazy - idiotic even. You may well say 'look - look at that great big crater over there'. I say 'look - look at the terrain we would have to try and cross to get there and look at the years of science we can do right here, now" I'm not saying wrap the thing in bubble wrap...I'm saying exercise sensibility - that's all. Driving to Ithaca would be - given current data - idiocy. It's a romantic notion...but nothing more - I find it increasingly difficult to take people who think it anything more than that seriously because it shows that you're just not looking at the data infront of us and the experiences of the last 3+ years realistically. 10 years from know perhaps I'll be proven wrong as Opportunity drives it's way around the far rim of Ithaca. But now, with the data we have, heading to Ithaca is the wrong thing to do - and gratuitously obviously so. In short - cut the romantic crap and look at the best data we have and tell me you honestly believe driving to Ithaca is the best use of this priceless asset. Doug |
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Jun 1 2007, 11:35 AM
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#5
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Member Group: Members Posts: 307 Joined: 16-March 05 Member No.: 198 |
Stephen - have you looked at the HiRISE image to the SE of Victoria? I find that downloading gigabyte-size files is expensive, taxes bandwidth, and probably pointless if the machine I download them to cannot usefully handle them anyway. I have however been looking at some of the smaller versions of those files which you and others have been putting up here and elsewhere. Be bold, be brave, go exploring - I agree. Jump off a metaphorical cliff? No thanks. This is a PRICELESS asset we're talking about. Nobody is proposing the rovers do any swan dives off any metaphorical cliffs. But at the same time you need to ask yourself whether fear of the unknown--the unknown sand trap, that is--is a good enough reason to avoid at least trying. We can spend another two year at Victoria crater doing good science that we can get to. It's here - it's extraordinary - it's feasable. I have no problem with Opportunity staying at Victoria and examining it inside and out. But then I doubt if you would find anyone on this forum who is saying it shouldn't. That said, be careful with that "good science" claim. Let's face it. Mars is still largely a blank slate. The rovers could go virtually anywhere, stick an IDD in, and get good science back. Consider Spirit. It is finding good opportunities for good science through pure chance and the dragging of a non-functional wheel! A more pertinent question is whether the science obtainable at one particular site would be more useful to a rovers' goals than the science it might get by going elsewhere. At Victoria I would agree there is certainly very good science obtainable there that Opportunity would not get, at least easily, by going elsewhere. The same however is more disputable for other places like, well... Then - there's stuff we rushed past at Erebus - we KNOW we can get back there. IMHO, the rovers should not go over old ground without good reason. There are good reasons for Spirit's return to Home Plate, for example, but there may well be good reasons for Opportunity to go back to Erebus, but unlike Home Plate I yet to hear what the Erebus ones are. The one you give here makes Erebus seem more like a consolation prize: the place Opportunity would be consigned to if there was nowhere else more useful for it to go. There's exposed rock that is perhaps 2-3-4km to the SW that would be tough to get to - but it could be interesting. Sounds OK to me. Whether it is a best destination however is another matter. ====== Stephen |
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