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After Victoria..., .. what next?
Stu
post May 28 2007, 02:07 PM
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I know we've had rather light-hearted discussions about this before, with most people agreeing that Oppy is likely to end her days inside or on the edge of Victoria Crater, simply because there's nothing else to investigate within reach, but has Steve S got it in his mind that Oppy will head off somewhere else after Victoria? This report could be read in a way that suggests that... huh.gif


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djellison
post May 30 2007, 08:06 AM
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In the context of Opportunity - a trip to Ithaca would be as much as 5 years of not-very-pretty-pictures-at-all smile.gif

Doug
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Stephen
post May 30 2007, 11:08 AM
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QUOTE (djellison @ May 29 2007, 03:03 AM) *
Unless I see images of that very large crater to the ESE making an EXCELLENT case for going there and HiRISE images documenting the entire route showing it to be in any way feasable - I can see no point in trying to get there when all current indicators suggest it would be a not much more than a suicide mission into a dune field we would never leave.

A crater which a rover can never leave is surely as much of a suicide mission as a dune field it cannot leave, even if the useful science takes a little longer to run out at one than the other.

Or for that matter a crater whose vicinity it can never leave (without "an EXCELLENT case for going [elsew]here" and "HiRISE images documenting the entire route") for fear of falling into another Purgatory-style trap.

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 03:50 AM) *
Taking Endurance to Victoria (including it's two halts for technical problems etc ) it's a commitment of about 5 years driving. There's not point doing the "100m a sol x Y days = X metres a week" maths - it doesn't work. It never really has apart from primary missions on easy driving ground.

Gee, Doug, it's a good thing poor Opportunity can't hear you writing the poor thing off like that. rolleyes.gif

I prefer to think of it as following in the footsteps of other five year plans of exploration...
"Mars...the final frontier.
These are the voyages of the Space Rover Opportunity.
It's five year mission:
To explore strange new rocks...
To seek out new sediments and new craters...
To boldly go where no rover has gone before." biggrin.gif

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 06:06 PM) *
In the context of Opportunity - a trip to Ithaca would be as much as 5 years of not-very-pretty-pictures-at-all smile.gif

On the other hand, to quote a cliche, nothing ventured nothing gained .

By which I mean that if way back at Opportunity's days at Endurance you knew about those dune fields to the south and the possibility if not probability of the rover getting trapped in a Purgatory would you have been arguing for Opportunity to potter around Endurance instead for the remainder of its days instead of venturing south to Victoria?

The possibility that Opportunity MIGHT get stuck again is (IMHO) surely not in itself a reason for not going to new places to see what science it can do there, any more than the possibility of death was a reason for polar explorers like Amundsen, Scott, and Shackleton to stay away from the deadly hazards of Antarctica.

Are we to start treating Opportunity like a cosseted child wrapped in proverbial cottonwool to protect it from the hazards of life (on Mars)? It's prime mission is long over. Way way over in fact! It is now into extra time. I'd have thought this should be the period when its masters can start to be a little more adventurous with it than they were able to back in its prime mission days. (Plus I also have faith in the ability of its engineers to get it out of seemingly inextricable situations, unlike ye of lesser faith. wink.gif )

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djellison
post May 30 2007, 12:03 PM
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Stephen - have you looked at the HiRISE image to the SE of Victoria?

Please do - then come back and tell me you think heading into that is a good idea - come back and say yes, you think Opportunity can cross 20km of mixed terrain including very large sand dunes with no obvious way around them. I'm being serious. Go and look at it - and can you HONESTLY say you think we can get through it with a vehicle with a stuck steering actuator and a history off getting stuck in fairly modest dunes - three times already.

Be bold, be brave, go exploring - I agree. Jump off a metaphorical cliff? No thanks. This is a PRICELESS asset we're talking about. We can spend another two year at Victoria crater doing good science that we can get to. It's here - it's extraordinary - it's feasable. Then - there's stuff we rushed past at Erebus - we KNOW we can get back there. There's exposed rock that is perhaps 2-3-4km to the SW that would be tough to get to - but it could be interesting. Then there's this crater that's half a decade of driving away over terrain we already know to be hazardous to the MER desgn.

I thought Victoria was a brave option - but appropriately so - a 50/50 shot that was worth doing for the science it might offer. There was nothing left to do at Endurance - it was the best option available given the data available. We didn't know that Purgatory was sat there. Given the data available now - were Opportunity sat at the Heatshield - Victoria would still be the best option. Now - sat at Victoria - Ithaca is not a 50/50 shot. I don't even rate it as a 1/99 shot. It's not a case of 'might' get stuck. Opportunity would have a dozen episodes like Jammerbugt. If we had a Spirit like wheel failure - it would be even harder to get out of those sorts of situations.

With the data we have now - with the evidence infront of us - the orbital images of the terrain to the SE of Victoria and comparing it to the terrain we have observed directly - with a knowledge that the driving wheels have a finite life that has already seen one wheel of the twelve on the surface fail - I honestly believe that saying we should drive to Ithaca is nothing short of crazy - idiotic even.

You may well say 'look - look at that great big crater over there'. I say 'look - look at the terrain we would have to try and cross to get there and look at the years of science we can do right here, now" I'm not saying wrap the thing in bubble wrap...I'm saying exercise sensibility - that's all.

Driving to Ithaca would be - given current data - idiocy. It's a romantic notion...but nothing more - I find it increasingly difficult to take people who think it anything more than that seriously because it shows that you're just not looking at the data infront of us and the experiences of the last 3+ years realistically.

10 years from know perhaps I'll be proven wrong as Opportunity drives it's way around the far rim of Ithaca. But now, with the data we have, heading to Ithaca is the wrong thing to do - and gratuitously obviously so.

In short - cut the romantic crap and look at the best data we have and tell me you honestly believe driving to Ithaca is the best use of this priceless asset.

Doug
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Stephen
post Jun 1 2007, 11:43 AM
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QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 10:03 PM) *
Then there's this crater that's half a decade of driving away over terrain we already know to be hazardous to the MER desgn.

Careful! Don't confuse what you KNOW with what you SUPPOSE. You no more KNOW that that terrain is "hazardous to the MER design" than you knew that there were dunes hazardous to that same design on Opportunity's route between Endurance and Victoria.

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 10:03 PM) *
I thought Victoria was a brave option - but appropriately so - a 50/50 shot that was worth doing for the science it might offer. There was nothing left to do at Endurance - it was the best option available given the data available.

Was it?

I do not recall there was ever much discussion about prospects in the other three directions--north, east, or west beyond Eagle. Presumably they were all too flat and uninteresting--no large craters--compared to the much closer prospects to the south.

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 10:03 PM) *
I'm not saying wrap the thing in bubble wrap...I'm saying exercise sensibility - that's all.

Which is part of the reason I object to going back to Erebus without good reason. Spirit and Opportunity have unknown but obviously finite lifespans left. Fear of large sand dunes and other putative perils may be reason enough for avoiding particular routes. They are not good reasons (IMHO) for not trying at all, much less a good reason for squandering part of the dwindling life span of a resource you claim to find so priceless by sending it over old ground for fear of sending it elsewhere.

Opportunity is more likely to make useful discoveries by going to places it hasn't yet been to than by trying to fill the blanks in by going back to places it has already visited. That could be going east or SE towards Ithaca or it could be going SW towards that exposed rock you mentioned. I suspend judgment as to which is the better pending further data.
***

I'll just conclude this with a more general observation.

It seems to me those HiRISE images are a mixed blessing. No offence, but the sight of those dunes appears to have spooked you, to the point that you seem to be treating Opportunity, at least in this matter, as if it were a kind of surrogate human being: you are so in fear of its losing its mechanical life that you are balking at sending even remotely near the supposed peril.

That in turn arguably negates one of the prime advantages unmanned robotic explorers have over the human sort: their ability to venture into places too dangerous for any human to go. If we humans are going to balk at the idea of sending unmanned robotic explorers into even mildly difficult places--ie places it can always retreat from it the going gets too tough--then how are we ever going to gather up the courage to send them into the kinds of places that may well hold REAL perils, like scaling the cliff walls of Mariner Valley or diving into the stygian deeps of the putative ocean beneath the ice of Europa?

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Posts in this topic
- Stu   After Victoria...   May 28 2007, 02:07 PM
- - Sunspot   But isn't the nearest feature of any significa...   May 28 2007, 02:30 PM
|- - Oren Iishi   [quote name='Sunspot' date='May 28 200...   May 28 2007, 03:47 PM
- - ustrax   "We're going to do a lot of good science,...   May 28 2007, 02:35 PM
- - fredk   It's hard to conclude much at all from those p...   May 28 2007, 03:28 PM
|- - ustrax   QUOTE (fredk @ May 28 2007, 04:28 PM) Mor...   May 28 2007, 03:58 PM
- - PhilHorzempa   As prep work, it would be nice to see HiRISE image...   May 28 2007, 03:35 PM
- - djellison   Scientifically it could be. Two, three or more ye...   May 28 2007, 05:03 PM
- - MarsIsImportant   Ustrax, I believe the bottom image is a stretched ...   May 28 2007, 05:07 PM
- - tuvas   During the last HiRISE team meeting, I think it wa...   May 28 2007, 05:18 PM
|- - fredk   Thanks, tuvas, for tossing some very tasty nuggets...   May 28 2007, 06:31 PM
- - tuvas   Oh, I have no doubt that before a target is chosen...   May 28 2007, 06:47 PM
- - David   It wasn't even possible to have a serious disc...   May 28 2007, 09:37 PM
- - nprev   Yes... ... amazing that there's now concern o...   May 28 2007, 10:56 PM
- - CosmicRocker   I was ready to say that Erebus is a valid future t...   May 29 2007, 12:39 AM
- - Bill Harris   Any future target will have to be down-section, aw...   May 29 2007, 02:54 AM
- - dvandorn   I think we should look at the entirety of Steve...   May 29 2007, 07:30 AM
|- - ustrax   QUOTE (dvandorn @ May 29 2007, 08:30 AM) ...   May 29 2007, 08:05 AM
|- - ustrax   I've been bothering SS with the Ithaca issue, ...   May 29 2007, 03:47 PM
|- - ustrax   And the whole context:   May 29 2007, 03:56 PM
- - djellison   The WHOLE context would show the distance between ...   May 29 2007, 04:16 PM
|- - ustrax   QUOTE (djellison @ May 29 2007, 05:16 PM)...   May 29 2007, 04:51 PM
|- - djellison   QUOTE (ustrax @ May 29 2007, 05:51 PM) Yo...   May 29 2007, 05:50 PM
|- - ustrax   QUOTE (djellison @ May 29 2007, 06:50 PM)...   May 30 2007, 10:01 AM
|- - climber   QUOTE (ustrax @ May 30 2007, 12:01 PM) Do...   May 30 2007, 10:11 AM
|- - djellison   QUOTE (ustrax @ May 30 2007, 11:01 AM) bu...   May 30 2007, 10:30 AM
|- - ustrax   QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 11:30 AM)...   May 30 2007, 11:04 AM
|- - Edward Schmitz   QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 03:30 AM)...   May 30 2007, 04:08 PM
|- - djellison   QUOTE (Edward Schmitz @ May 30 2007, 05:0...   May 30 2007, 04:13 PM
- - Stu   As much as I love the romance of that idea, it doe...   May 29 2007, 05:36 PM
- - babakm   Here's a perspective view from the HRSCView ap...   May 29 2007, 05:46 PM
- - alan   Maybe someday the romantics will get their wish an...   May 29 2007, 10:15 PM
- - fredk   You guys want completely uncalled for, brazen spec...   May 29 2007, 11:59 PM
|- - ElkGroveDan   QUOTE (fredk @ May 29 2007, 03:59 PM) ......   May 30 2007, 12:28 AM
|- - nprev   QUOTE (ElkGroveDan @ May 29 2007, 05:28 P...   May 30 2007, 12:48 AM
|- - gallen_53   QUOTE (nprev @ May 30 2007, 12:48 AM) I...   May 30 2007, 04:19 AM
- - Stu   Don't underestimate the value of "pretty ...   May 30 2007, 07:36 AM
- - djellison   BUT - there is a point at which there would be cri...   May 30 2007, 07:42 AM
|- - Stu   QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 08:42 AM)...   May 30 2007, 08:03 AM
- - climber   I understand the wish of engeneers to see how the ...   May 30 2007, 07:44 AM
|- - zoost   QUOTE (climber @ May 30 2007, 07:44 AM) C...   May 30 2007, 08:07 AM
|- - Edward Schmitz   QUOTE (climber @ May 30 2007, 12:44 AM) ....   May 30 2007, 03:59 PM
- - Toma B   That is why we love MERs so much...there are both ...   May 30 2007, 07:45 AM
- - djellison   In the context of Opportunity - a trip to Ithaca w...   May 30 2007, 08:06 AM
|- - Stephen   QUOTE (djellison @ May 29 2007, 03:03 AM)...   May 30 2007, 11:08 AM
|- - ustrax   QUOTE (Stephen @ May 30 2007, 12:08 PM) B...   May 30 2007, 11:32 AM
|- - djellison   Stephen - have you looked at the HiRISE image to t...   May 30 2007, 12:03 PM
|- - Stephen   QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 10:03 PM)...   Jun 1 2007, 11:35 AM
|- - Stephen   QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 10:03 PM)...   Jun 1 2007, 11:43 AM
|- - djellison   QUOTE (Stephen @ Jun 1 2007, 12:43 PM) Ca...   Jun 1 2007, 12:58 PM
- - Stu   I think most people here know just how much I live...   May 30 2007, 11:23 AM
- - Stu   Admit it ustrax, you just made that 'old sayin...   May 30 2007, 11:53 AM
|- - ustrax   QUOTE (Stu @ May 30 2007, 12:53 PM) Admit...   May 30 2007, 01:28 PM
- - dvandorn   OK -- if we're seriously going to discuss wher...   May 30 2007, 01:22 PM
|- - fredk   QUOTE (dvandorn @ May 30 2007, 01:22 PM) ...   May 30 2007, 05:54 PM
- - djellison   I gotta say - those second two craters look damn i...   May 30 2007, 01:54 PM
|- - ustrax   QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 02:54 PM)...   May 30 2007, 02:04 PM
||- - Stu   QUOTE (ustrax @ May 30 2007, 03:04 PM) Wh...   May 30 2007, 02:06 PM
||- - djellison   QUOTE (ustrax @ May 30 2007, 03:04 PM) Wh...   May 30 2007, 02:10 PM
||- - ustrax   QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 03:10 PM)...   May 30 2007, 02:25 PM
|- - dvandorn   QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 08:54 AM)...   May 30 2007, 03:12 PM
- - Stu   I know the romantic explorer in you can hear Ithac...   May 30 2007, 01:57 PM
- - algorimancer   Heading due east from Victoria would indeed be a v...   May 30 2007, 02:20 PM
|- - djellison   QUOTE (algorimancer @ May 30 2007, 03:20 ...   May 30 2007, 03:04 PM
||- - algorimancer   QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 10:04 AM)...   May 30 2007, 03:36 PM
|- - FIN Mars   QUOTE (algorimancer @ May 30 2007, 04:20 ...   Jun 3 2007, 07:50 PM
- - babakm   The area directly South of Victoria looks pretty b...   May 30 2007, 03:25 PM
|- - ustrax   Leaving aside the possible interest of the crater ...   May 30 2007, 03:47 PM
- - gallen_53   I think MER-B should aggressively explore Victoria...   May 30 2007, 03:37 PM
|- - helvick   QUOTE (gallen_53 @ May 30 2007, 04:37 PM)...   May 30 2007, 06:58 PM
- - dvandorn   Exactly -- as Doug says, we need more HiRISE image...   May 30 2007, 03:51 PM
- - djellison   We just built three new PC's here at work - Ar...   May 30 2007, 03:55 PM
- - Edward Schmitz   Dvandorn had an alternative idea above that doesn...   May 30 2007, 04:40 PM
- - algorimancer   I sure wish the HiRISE and other orbiter teams wou...   May 30 2007, 04:48 PM
|- - babakm   QUOTE (algorimancer @ May 30 2007, 04:48 ...   May 30 2007, 05:17 PM
- - dvandorn   QUOTE (fredk @ May 30 2007, 12:54 PM) You...   May 30 2007, 07:10 PM
- - MarsIsImportant   I like the Craters A, B, and C idea better than st...   May 31 2007, 04:10 AM
|- - centsworth_II   QUOTE (MarsIsImportant @ May 31 2007, 12...   May 31 2007, 04:24 AM
- - Pando   Hey Ustrax, my good friend, remember the good ...   May 31 2007, 05:25 AM
|- - ustrax   QUOTE (Pando @ May 31 2007, 06:25 AM) ......   May 31 2007, 08:29 AM
- - gpurcell   The rover spent a heck of a lot of time getting to...   Jun 1 2007, 01:40 PM
|- - Edward Schmitz   QUOTE (gpurcell @ Jun 1 2007, 06:40 AM) T...   Jun 1 2007, 04:50 PM
- - djellison   I agree on that one - there's years of stuff h...   Jun 1 2007, 02:10 PM
- - djellison   But thinking about afterwards means you have to co...   Jun 1 2007, 04:55 PM
|- - ustrax   QUOTE (djellison @ Jun 1 2007, 05:55 PM) ...   Jun 1 2007, 07:37 PM
- - djellison   Actually - on another forum someone suggested that...   Jun 1 2007, 08:00 PM
- - algorimancer   Getting back to the question of whether the region...   Jun 1 2007, 08:33 PM
- - fredk   That's good to hear, algorimancer! We rea...   Jun 2 2007, 05:07 PM
- - stevesliva   What is to the north of Endurance? If we retrace ...   Jun 4 2007, 03:15 AM
- - edstrick   What's north of Endurance is one or two of tho...   Jun 4 2007, 06:29 AM
- - PaulM   Oppy seems to be surviving the storm and assuming ...   Aug 16 2007, 12:01 PM
|- - djellison   QUOTE (PaulM @ Aug 16 2007, 01:01 PM) if ...   Aug 16 2007, 12:07 PM
- - Floyd   Welcome to UMSF PaulM. I'm not sure exac...   Aug 16 2007, 12:35 PM
|- - algorimancer   QUOTE (Floyd @ Aug 16 2007, 07:35 AM) ......   Aug 16 2007, 01:03 PM
|- - antoniseb   QUOTE (algorimancer @ Aug 16 2007, 07:03 ...   Aug 16 2007, 01:16 PM
- - Tom Tamlyn   And don't forget Argos, the aged, faithful dog...   Aug 16 2007, 02:44 PM
- - PaulM   I find it interesting to speculate where the ...   Aug 16 2007, 06:47 PM
- - mhoward   Speaking of the "Oddysey," or the ...   Aug 16 2007, 08:55 PM
- - algorimancer   QUOTE (mhoward @ Aug 16 2007, 03:55 PM) ....   Aug 16 2007, 10:52 PM
- - BrianL   So, with the news that it is time to move on, and ...   Feb 5 2008, 06:23 AM
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