After Victoria..., .. what next? |
After Victoria..., .. what next? |
May 28 2007, 02:07 PM
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#1
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The Poet Dude Group: Moderator Posts: 5551 Joined: 15-March 04 From: Kendal, Cumbria, UK Member No.: 60 |
I know we've had rather light-hearted discussions about this before, with most people agreeing that Oppy is likely to end her days inside or on the edge of Victoria Crater, simply because there's nothing else to investigate within reach, but has Steve S got it in his mind that Oppy will head off somewhere else after Victoria? This report could be read in a way that suggests that...
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May 30 2007, 08:06 AM
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#2
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Founder Group: Chairman Posts: 14448 Joined: 8-February 04 Member No.: 1 |
In the context of Opportunity - a trip to Ithaca would be as much as 5 years of not-very-pretty-pictures-at-all
Doug |
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May 30 2007, 11:08 AM
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#3
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Member Group: Members Posts: 307 Joined: 16-March 05 Member No.: 198 |
Unless I see images of that very large crater to the ESE making an EXCELLENT case for going there and HiRISE images documenting the entire route showing it to be in any way feasable - I can see no point in trying to get there when all current indicators suggest it would be a not much more than a suicide mission into a dune field we would never leave. A crater which a rover can never leave is surely as much of a suicide mission as a dune field it cannot leave, even if the useful science takes a little longer to run out at one than the other. Or for that matter a crater whose vicinity it can never leave (without "an EXCELLENT case for going [elsew]here" and "HiRISE images documenting the entire route") for fear of falling into another Purgatory-style trap. Taking Endurance to Victoria (including it's two halts for technical problems etc ) it's a commitment of about 5 years driving. There's not point doing the "100m a sol x Y days = X metres a week" maths - it doesn't work. It never really has apart from primary missions on easy driving ground. Gee, Doug, it's a good thing poor Opportunity can't hear you writing the poor thing off like that. I prefer to think of it as following in the footsteps of other five year plans of exploration... "Mars...the final frontier. In the context of Opportunity - a trip to Ithaca would be as much as 5 years of not-very-pretty-pictures-at-all On the other hand, to quote a cliche, nothing ventured nothing gained . By which I mean that if way back at Opportunity's days at Endurance you knew about those dune fields to the south and the possibility if not probability of the rover getting trapped in a Purgatory would you have been arguing for Opportunity to potter around Endurance instead for the remainder of its days instead of venturing south to Victoria? The possibility that Opportunity MIGHT get stuck again is (IMHO) surely not in itself a reason for not going to new places to see what science it can do there, any more than the possibility of death was a reason for polar explorers like Amundsen, Scott, and Shackleton to stay away from the deadly hazards of Antarctica. Are we to start treating Opportunity like a cosseted child wrapped in proverbial cottonwool to protect it from the hazards of life (on Mars)? It's prime mission is long over. Way way over in fact! It is now into extra time. I'd have thought this should be the period when its masters can start to be a little more adventurous with it than they were able to back in its prime mission days. (Plus I also have faith in the ability of its engineers to get it out of seemingly inextricable situations, unlike ye of lesser faith. ) ====== Stephen |
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May 30 2007, 12:03 PM
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#4
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Founder Group: Chairman Posts: 14448 Joined: 8-February 04 Member No.: 1 |
Stephen - have you looked at the HiRISE image to the SE of Victoria?
Please do - then come back and tell me you think heading into that is a good idea - come back and say yes, you think Opportunity can cross 20km of mixed terrain including very large sand dunes with no obvious way around them. I'm being serious. Go and look at it - and can you HONESTLY say you think we can get through it with a vehicle with a stuck steering actuator and a history off getting stuck in fairly modest dunes - three times already. Be bold, be brave, go exploring - I agree. Jump off a metaphorical cliff? No thanks. This is a PRICELESS asset we're talking about. We can spend another two year at Victoria crater doing good science that we can get to. It's here - it's extraordinary - it's feasable. Then - there's stuff we rushed past at Erebus - we KNOW we can get back there. There's exposed rock that is perhaps 2-3-4km to the SW that would be tough to get to - but it could be interesting. Then there's this crater that's half a decade of driving away over terrain we already know to be hazardous to the MER desgn. I thought Victoria was a brave option - but appropriately so - a 50/50 shot that was worth doing for the science it might offer. There was nothing left to do at Endurance - it was the best option available given the data available. We didn't know that Purgatory was sat there. Given the data available now - were Opportunity sat at the Heatshield - Victoria would still be the best option. Now - sat at Victoria - Ithaca is not a 50/50 shot. I don't even rate it as a 1/99 shot. It's not a case of 'might' get stuck. Opportunity would have a dozen episodes like Jammerbugt. If we had a Spirit like wheel failure - it would be even harder to get out of those sorts of situations. With the data we have now - with the evidence infront of us - the orbital images of the terrain to the SE of Victoria and comparing it to the terrain we have observed directly - with a knowledge that the driving wheels have a finite life that has already seen one wheel of the twelve on the surface fail - I honestly believe that saying we should drive to Ithaca is nothing short of crazy - idiotic even. You may well say 'look - look at that great big crater over there'. I say 'look - look at the terrain we would have to try and cross to get there and look at the years of science we can do right here, now" I'm not saying wrap the thing in bubble wrap...I'm saying exercise sensibility - that's all. Driving to Ithaca would be - given current data - idiocy. It's a romantic notion...but nothing more - I find it increasingly difficult to take people who think it anything more than that seriously because it shows that you're just not looking at the data infront of us and the experiences of the last 3+ years realistically. 10 years from know perhaps I'll be proven wrong as Opportunity drives it's way around the far rim of Ithaca. But now, with the data we have, heading to Ithaca is the wrong thing to do - and gratuitously obviously so. In short - cut the romantic crap and look at the best data we have and tell me you honestly believe driving to Ithaca is the best use of this priceless asset. Doug |
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Jun 1 2007, 11:43 AM
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#5
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Member Group: Members Posts: 307 Joined: 16-March 05 Member No.: 198 |
Then there's this crater that's half a decade of driving away over terrain we already know to be hazardous to the MER desgn. Careful! Don't confuse what you KNOW with what you SUPPOSE. You no more KNOW that that terrain is "hazardous to the MER design" than you knew that there were dunes hazardous to that same design on Opportunity's route between Endurance and Victoria. I thought Victoria was a brave option - but appropriately so - a 50/50 shot that was worth doing for the science it might offer. There was nothing left to do at Endurance - it was the best option available given the data available. Was it? I do not recall there was ever much discussion about prospects in the other three directions--north, east, or west beyond Eagle. Presumably they were all too flat and uninteresting--no large craters--compared to the much closer prospects to the south. I'm not saying wrap the thing in bubble wrap...I'm saying exercise sensibility - that's all. Which is part of the reason I object to going back to Erebus without good reason. Spirit and Opportunity have unknown but obviously finite lifespans left. Fear of large sand dunes and other putative perils may be reason enough for avoiding particular routes. They are not good reasons (IMHO) for not trying at all, much less a good reason for squandering part of the dwindling life span of a resource you claim to find so priceless by sending it over old ground for fear of sending it elsewhere. Opportunity is more likely to make useful discoveries by going to places it hasn't yet been to than by trying to fill the blanks in by going back to places it has already visited. That could be going east or SE towards Ithaca or it could be going SW towards that exposed rock you mentioned. I suspend judgment as to which is the better pending further data. *** I'll just conclude this with a more general observation. It seems to me those HiRISE images are a mixed blessing. No offence, but the sight of those dunes appears to have spooked you, to the point that you seem to be treating Opportunity, at least in this matter, as if it were a kind of surrogate human being: you are so in fear of its losing its mechanical life that you are balking at sending even remotely near the supposed peril. That in turn arguably negates one of the prime advantages unmanned robotic explorers have over the human sort: their ability to venture into places too dangerous for any human to go. If we humans are going to balk at the idea of sending unmanned robotic explorers into even mildly difficult places--ie places it can always retreat from it the going gets too tough--then how are we ever going to gather up the courage to send them into the kinds of places that may well hold REAL perils, like scaling the cliff walls of Mariner Valley or diving into the stygian deeps of the putative ocean beneath the ice of Europa? ====== Stephen |
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Jun 1 2007, 12:58 PM
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#6
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Founder Group: Chairman Posts: 14448 Joined: 8-February 04 Member No.: 1 |
Careful! Don't confuse what you KNOW with what you SUPPOSE. You no more KNOW that that terrain is "hazardous to the MER design" than you knew that there were dunes hazardous to that same design on Opportunity's route between Endurance and Victoria. We didn't know what the terrain was like from Endurance to Victoria. We had a MOC image which showed this etched terrain - we didn't know what it was like. We didnt know if we were going to get through it. There was nothing else for miles and miles - so there was nothing to be lost by trying. Ignorance was bliss. Now - we have the information from HiRISE and the ability to compare all the terrain of that huge traverse across Meridiani with surface imagery. We can actually see. There is no supposition involved whatsoever. We KNOW that the dunes around the Purgatory area are hazardous to the MER design. We know that. We can now see dunes that are bigger than that - vast swathes of them - ones that we would struggle to find a route around or through. Thus we KNOW that the terrain South of Victoria is more hazardous than the terrain we crossed to get to Victoria - we can see it - we can see the patterns in HiRISE imagery - and it's the same patterns we saw on the north edge of Erebus - a large dune field that we took a HUGE circumnavigation to get around. People having been drawing dotted lines on 12m/pixel imagery going south of Victoria. That's meaningless. Yes - Ithaca is a good target. But going South of Victoria isn't. If this vehicle can do another 20-30k - if it can do another 5, 6, 7 years - maybe we'll get to Ithaca...but we sure as hell wont make it if we point SE and gun it. Your human analogy doesn't work - a human could walk it quite easily - these vehicles do not have the abilities of a Human. This wouldn't be hazardous to humans (any more than the act of walking on Mars is going to be inherantly hazardous ) - a human could walk this stuff without thinking. There was good science at Erebus that we shot straight past - the best exposed festoons we've ever seen. Good science is a good reason. Erebus hasn't been mentioned just for a laugh - it's been mentioned because it was interesting. This isn't about 'claiming' Opportunity is a priceless asset. It is. Fact. The science team think so, the engineering team think so. I think it would be a waste of that asset to send it into terrain that - given the data we have now - would be a navigation dead end. It's not about avoiding peril - anyone who has been here for the duration knows what Peril means: http://marsrovers.jpl.nasa.gov/gallery/all...09P1214L0M1.JPG What's the problem driving over old ground? We're driving over old ground right now - back around Victoria - to get to good science we've already driven past at Duck Bay. Driving back to Erebus would not be that different. Spirit's doing it - back to Home Plate for science, back to Larrys Lookout two years ago. Turning around to re-visit something interesting that you couldn't give your full attention to is not a crime. Pointing at massive dune fields and putting to the foot to the floor is. Is there not a contradiction in saying that their lifespan is finite - so let's spend 5 years driving South East through dune fields? Again and again I've said we need more data before making a final decision - fighting and arguing about it now is premature - we're all jumping the gun. Perhaps we can make a solid case for a single HiRISE observation to answer this and submit it to HiROC - see if they'll oblige? Doug |
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