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Posted by: leustek Dec 19 2006, 01:20 AM

With the MER operations teams stated goal of entering Victoria regardless of whether it will be possible to exit, it might be time to begin choosing when and where this will happen.

My guess is that as long as Oppy is healthy the MER team will completely circumnavigate Victoria and this will take about 20 months. My reasoning is as follows. Entering Victoria will be easy. Driving to the base of an outcrop would be impossible at every bay we have seen so far, with the possible exception of Duck Bay. My guess is that the team will try for as much reconnaissance information as possible in the hopes of finding a better location for science. But they will not find it and will take the plunge at Duck Bay on August 16, 2008.

Posted by: jamescanvin Dec 19 2006, 02:00 AM

2008! Wow, that's a long time.

Can we stick to sols with predictions? I find it hard to think in earth time. That would be sol 1621/2 for you then.

I'm going to have to think about this one... but I don't think it'll be THAT long.

James

Posted by: AndyG Dec 19 2006, 09:52 AM

Why a complete circumnavigation?

Opportunity is old, and the risks of it breaking down before entering the crater rise over time. That potential loss of science doesn't justify the need for a "victory lap" to my mind. With regards to slopes and the accessibility of entry points, I suspect any benefits to be gained from ground knowledge of a complete loop will be more or less nullified by a mass of data, both from orbit and from long-baseline stereo imagery.

Personally, I think points of interest will favour a entry sooner rather than later. Once past the dark streaks to about 2 o'clock on the rim, the slumps of the Soup Dragon would be where I'd be aiming. A guess? Entry on Sol 1270, then a dander back anticlockwise along the base of the outcrops that have already been seen from above - shadows permitting, of course.

Andy

Posted by: ToSeek Dec 19 2006, 06:48 PM

Sol 1365, just to have a guess in the pot.

Posted by: tuvas Dec 19 2006, 06:59 PM

I'm guessing March 17, 2007, it's about the right time frame, and it happens to be the birthday of one of my sibblings (That just tossed in for dumb luck, but, well, I had to pick some day...)

Posted by: Sunspot Dec 19 2006, 07:10 PM

I think they'll drive into Duck Bay as soon as the Sun is high enough to produce enough power on the more northward facing slopes.

Posted by: Phil Stooke Dec 19 2006, 07:33 PM

Duck Bay looks good for access and for the nice outcrop on its north edge, probably the best we've seen yet for accessibility.

But one thing really worries me. All along the top, the very rim of Duck Bay, is a big drift. Endurance didn't have that. I think a way past it might be found at its northern end, but it severely limits access and might make exit completely impossible. If another bay can be found with reasonable slopes and outcrops but no drift at the top, it would make a better choice. So I expect a bit more searching.

Phil

Posted by: Edward Schmitz Dec 19 2006, 08:53 PM

Duck Bay on Sol 1192. Entry on the north side of the bay. Exit (if that ever happens) would be at the south side.

I'm betting that they want those lower layers within reach of the arm - sooner rather than later. Duck bay looks good for several reasons.

1) the ejecta blanket looks relatively thin.
2) the exposed rock looks deepest of all the bays.
3) the slope looks favorable.
4) It is relatively near by.

Posted by: imipak Dec 19 2006, 09:10 PM

Oh... go on then. Sol 1143. A good year for Portugal, apparently. From Steve Squyres' comments about where the good geology seems to be, I doubt they'll go further round than the 90 degree position. The current JPL Opportunity Status page mentions imaging Bottomless Bay partly to decide whether it would make a good entrance ramp.

I'm sure those slopes are steeper than eighteen degrees though. Could Oppy zig-zag back and forth across the slope to make it easier? The other thing that bugs me is that a wheel failure after going over the edge would mean we'll never see the surface of Meridiani again. But weighed against the prospects for a close examination of those cliff-faces... eeesh. Better to die trying to reach them than sitting on the rim, I suppose.

Posted by: WindyT Dec 19 2006, 09:27 PM

Are we talking all four wheels in and going down, or toe in the water(slope) and analyze for a few sols at the entry to one of the bays? I agree that Duck Bay is a great place to come back to and start analyzing the slope under the ejecta, but I'm going to hold on any prediction for the moment to see if any bay closer to the Soup Dragon will look as good to the MER team.

Posted by: sattrackpro Dec 20 2006, 02:11 PM

Well, I think there is ~some~ desire to enter the crater sooner, rather than later... but, from past experience, patience has been the ~usual~ approach. They will, I think, look longer and harder at the possibilities - and try to chose a path that at least offers the possibility of exit after entry - the best opportunity (no pun intended) to snuggle up to lowest-level exposed layers - and the best sunlight (seasonal) exposure for the attempt.

I'd guess they will circumnavigate (because they will probably need a later-in-time seasonal entry time) - and they may attempt to catch some of the cleansing winds where we see the whirlwind tracks at bays C5, D2, and D5 (with probability emphasis on D2) - which could mean a somewhat extended or slowed approach at that point (depending on the seasonal likelihood of wind at the time - and the best balance with sun position for entry.)

So - to toss out a number, I’d expect an entry decision to come no sooner than about sol 1190 - unless they stumble onto what looks to be the perfect spot sooner - maybe somewhere on the other side. But, I don’t believe that's likely.

It is likely that at current operational speed, they could take as long as 220 to 250 sols to circumnavigate the crater - or as few as 110 to 150 days - if for seasonal reasons (sun) they must hurry the trip, and because Duck Bay or other spots looked better.

Because it is of advantage to look closely at all the possibilities, and considering the advantages of a few cleaning ‘events’ - I’d tend to think an entry date further along rather than sooner may be likely - somewhere near sol 1285.

But, if the sun is best in the late spring, early summer, I’d bet against the ‘full-tour’ - and look for an early and speedy return to Duck Bay for entry - backtracking after a possible relatively-short attempt to find ‘cleaning events’ - and entry when 'acceptable' power is available, at Duck Bay.

Anything can happen to change - everything - but an August date here on earth for entry would not surprise me in the least.

Posted by: ustrax Dec 20 2006, 02:27 PM

Man! Are we THAT old?!

Following on the same path...sol http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afonso_Henriques...

Posted by: MahFL Dec 20 2006, 03:48 PM

I'll say 1151.

Posted by: Ant103 Dec 20 2006, 04:46 PM

Hum... For me (fourmi, tiens? ) I say Sol 1103 (without analysis of the situation, only in link to my nickname... ).

Posted by: Nirgal Dec 20 2006, 06:42 PM

Sol 1111

Posted by: climber Dec 20 2006, 09:28 PM

Alors ça, c'est fourmidouble...

Posted by: dilo Dec 20 2006, 09:49 PM

I think will be done in the vicinity of Sofi crater, let's say on 9 July 2007 (my birthday, should be around Sol 1235).

Posted by: jamescanvin Dec 20 2006, 10:17 PM

I'll go 1170 - 13 times the primary mission time.

Posted by: Floyd Dec 21 2006, 01:06 AM

The navcam and http://qt.exploratorium.edu/mars/opportunity/pancam/2006-12-20/1P219532342EFF77O1P2442L2M1.JPG pictures that have come down in the last few day make it look like it would be extremely easy to enter Bottomless Bay and travel down past the rubble layer to the white layer at the top of the layered bedrock. What do you think of a toe dip and making use of instrument arm? How steep is the initial part of the bay—less than 15-20 degrees? I think a quick toe dip followed by more circumnavigation would be a great strategy for maximizing science return and minimizing the risk of dying before at least some Victoria interior data is collected. I therefore pick Sol 1038 (Christmas = Monday) for entry day.

Posted by: leustek Dec 22 2006, 12:03 AM

I think the criterion should be "committed", all wheels down the slope.

In the absence of finding an entry point with high probability of extractability, the team will probably want to look close-up at the erosion on the far side of Victoria before sending Opportunity down the hole. At that point Opportunity will be half way round. Since there will be no advantage to back-tracking, Duck Bay will be accessed by way of the unvisited rim. I seem to be way off the average on my guess of sol 1544, but I am going to stick with it. Opportunity is healthy. It seems like a waste to take the one way trip in, when so much more roving is possible.

Posted by: alan Dec 22 2006, 12:48 AM

Four months to survey the north side of victoria, a month to drive back. Sol 1181

These sols have been taken
1038, 1103, 1111, 1119?(March 17 2007) ,1122, 1134, 1143, 1151, 1170, 1181, 1192, 1200, 1205, 1210, 1219, 1224, 1234, 1235, 1242, 1244, 1255, 1270, 1285, 1305, 1313, 1365, 1395, 1425, 1544, 1621

editted to add more guesses

Posted by: MizarKey Dec 22 2006, 09:26 AM

Put me down for 1242. No specific criteria except for the '42' part...

Posted by: MarsIsImportant Dec 22 2006, 07:19 PM

Entry point should be at Soup Dragon Bay on day 1219. That gives plenty of time for recon around the various capes with extra time given for interesting features. Also, some extra time is given for possible minor technical problems. The tilt direction for light should be good for the rover around the Soup Dragon area. I'm not sure about the actual date, but I'm confident about the entry point; otherwise, the MER team would have already tried a toe dip at bottomless bay. It didn't happen; so it not likely to happen anytime soon. There is no need to be in such a hurry with plenty of recon left to do on along the edge of the crater. So my best guess is sol 1219...unless something majorly wrong happens with opportunity before then. And that entry may just be a major toe dip.

I don't know how oppy can move around inside the crater much, once it makes a full commitment. There is simply too much sand around the points of the capes. Further exploration may need to be consecutive major toe dips along strategically placed Capes and Bays, with most of the movement occuring outside the crater.

I think oppy will stay relatively healthy for at least another couple of hundred sols. I'm worried about a major sand storm during the coming season. If she makes it through, I see no reason why she won't make it through next martian winter too. Beyond that coming spring season, oppy will not likely be all that healthy. Now that MRO has arrived and once Oppy has throughly investigated Victoria, why not do a real and deliberate "Thelma and Louis" off one of the steepest cliffs.

The marks from the roll and tumble should be visible from MRO. We might even get lucky by oppy surviving the fall! And since the closest target beyond Victoria is some 12 to 15 kilometers away, there is no way that Oppy could possibly make that long trip. Even if she successfully made such a long trip, her instruments would be in such poor shape that...what would be the point? So a "Thelma and Louis" jump off a cliff at Victoria seems fitting and possibly more productive. It could provide additional valuable science beyond anything it could gain by a slow death in the dune fields south of Victoria. But such a dramatic end should not be considered seriously for a couple of years down the road. Else, maybe Opportunity should be directed toward the very center of the major dune fields within Victoria. I don't think Oppy would get very far. But there might be valuable additional science from either alternative mission extension. Certainly, both would be better than going for the pie in the sky goal of the big crater 12 km away toward the southeast.

Meanwhile, I stick by my prediction of an entry of some sort on or near sol 1219. The first major goal should be Soup Dragon because of the potential depth of the strata there.

Posted by: ustrax Dec 22 2006, 07:27 PM

Just restrain the suicidal tendencies...
http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?showtopic=3215

Posted by: PhilCo126 Dec 22 2006, 07:57 PM

Best guess sol 1234

Posted by: climber Dec 22 2006, 09:15 PM

I'll go for Climber's cave exploration ... on the way out while entery using Duck's Bay when sun will provide enough energy to enter safely. It seams you've all forget this don't you?
Sol 1122 will be the one declared as "starts to enter".

Posted by: Tesheiner Dec 23 2006, 02:23 PM

Given the team interest on Bottomless bay (based on the pics) I would say this will be the *first* entry point. But first I'm pretty sure they will continue driving clockwise and only make the first attempts to enter VC on the way back from the northern size.

Guess for sol 1313.

Posted by: Rakhir Dec 23 2006, 02:32 PM

I take the 1200

Posted by: climber Dec 23 2006, 05:27 PM

Are you sure this time ?

Posted by: ElkGroveDan Dec 24 2006, 02:26 AM

Shall we start a pool to see if they will enter on the Near Rim, or Far Rim?

Posted by: Pando Dec 24 2006, 02:43 AM

Groan....

Ok, I'll make a prediction. Oppy will enter at the near rim, that is the rim nearest to Oppy. It cannot possibly enter at the far rim.

Posted by: Pavel Dec 25 2006, 05:44 AM

1255

Founding of Königsberg. Good year for the Teutonic Order and for my girlfriend (she was born there)

Posted by: antoniseb Dec 25 2006, 02:41 PM

I'll say 1210, and I think they'll do it on the South side of Beacon (near side).

Posted by: DFinfrock Dec 27 2006, 01:15 AM

I'll take 1224. And I'm thinking Far Side. (I was on the Near Rim team for the Beacon, so I've decided to switch sides).

David

Posted by: edstrick Dec 27 2006, 11:11 AM

I keep thinking entry POOL, and having this wacked out fantasy of a spring filling the crater as the rover starts down the boat-ramp of one of the bays...

glub.

glub.

Posted by: MahFL Dec 27 2006, 04:24 PM

I'll say nearside as thats where the tallest cliffs are.

Posted by: BrianL Dec 28 2006, 12:59 AM

I will take sol 1205. Has our official judge of all things competitive made a ruling on what constitutes an entry? I would hate to think that belly up after a cliff dive would be considered a winner.

Brian

Posted by: micvoo Dec 28 2006, 11:43 PM

Opportunity will dip into the crater on sol 1395. That's my guess.

Posted by: Myran Dec 29 2006, 01:14 AM

Sol 1425 - and that oppy will request a bit of R&R.

Posted by: edstrick Dec 29 2006, 12:46 PM

Somebody should photoshop a pic of Oppy wearing water-wings and raising a roostertail wake in the water as it cruises around inside a lake-filled crater.

Posted by: micvoo Dec 30 2006, 02:08 PM

Hi,

Based on the info on Victoria crater we have so far, what would be the most likely entry (and exit) points for Opportunity?
I cannot tell which degree the slopes are at, but Duck Bay seems not so steep (although the composition of the downward terrain itself has to be taken into account as well of course).

Any ideas anyone?

Michiel

Posted by: bergadder Jan 3 2007, 03:15 AM

1244 Near rim

Posted by: pch Jan 3 2007, 10:34 AM

My guess: sol 1305 at bay D5 or E1

Posted by: FIN Mars Jan 3 2007, 02:03 PM

over 1500 or never.
I'm sorry, but i can't believe that.

I would to know, how hight dunes there is on trip.

Posted by: Bobby Jan 4 2007, 05:24 AM

As the creater of the Beacon Near/Far Side topic of the past. I will say Oppy will spin her wheels on the North Side and investigate the Beacon side for a while then do a 180 and head back to Duck Bay (Aflac) to explore there as it looks to be the most interesting and safe entrance to the inside. I will say about 100 Sols from now or Sol 1,147. Now how many sols will Oppy be inside Victoria before she burns hot metal to get back out?

I will say about 125 sols inside going down as far as possible.

Posted by: tuvas Mar 1 2007, 02:50 PM

I'll convert my guess to the popular sol listing, say, 1140. I predict it will enter in an as-of-yet unnamed bay, probably the one it is currently approaching.

Posted by: Tesheiner Mar 1 2007, 03:30 PM

Yup, that still-unnamed-bay is being considered by the MER team. See here: http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=3978&view=findpost&p=84966

I stick with my original bet. Sol 1313.

Posted by: MarsIsImportant Mar 1 2007, 06:08 PM

My prediction of 1219 is still good.

The following is an approximation of what I expect until the first egress out of the crater. I guess that there is plenty of room for error; but it is fun to speculate.

The blue lines are my proposed track for the rover. The green lines are potential side tracks. The purple ellipses highlight areas of interest. There are a lot of purple circles!!! Gee! I wonder why?

Posted by: antoniseb Mar 1 2007, 06:45 PM

Your map is interesting, but it doesn't show the rover spending time along one of the deeper cape-bay cliffs (such as the one for Beacon). I had the impression that they wanted to study was the layers with the various upclose tools, such as brush & grinder, alpha-xray, moessbauer, etc. The interesting features you've identified are OK, but don't systematically tell the story of how this area got the way it is.

Posted by: atomoid Mar 1 2007, 11:23 PM

I think MarsIsImportant (yeah that too, but in this phrase im referring to the forum poster's name) is right on for the actual entry point, its the perfect placment for exploring the steep side of the cliffs and then to come up and out through duck bay...

I liked the idea of SOL 1111 (if not only for the reason its the only sol either rover will have that has four of the same four digits while still in service (sorry im not optimistic enough to keep the Spirit until sol 2222, although i do hope i get the Opportunity to eat my words)). ..however, i get the sense there is deafinItaly a high priority on going to check out the water-modified faults over by the Soup Dragon referred to in recent papers in order to get some ground truth there. ..and they would probably want to do that before going down in the hole, since there's no guarantee there is an exit strategy that will work. so now im thinking instead of going down and in and then over to the faults afterwards, they will circumnavigate there first and come down MarsIsImportant's spot and then go back out via duck bay (simply because it appears of all the bays to have the best exposed bedrock for traction going up), but then again i havent been reading the scientists' journals so im just guessing.

..based on that i'm now committing to SOL 1234 (since its a similarly unique number)

Posted by: Oren Iishi Mar 1 2007, 11:50 PM

I'm gonna throw my hat in the ring and say sol 1183. I read somewhere that the MER team wants to enter sooner rather than later.

Posted by: MarsIsImportant Mar 6 2007, 06:44 AM

Well, it is very hard to say what the track of the rover will be while inside the crater. The track along the rim is fairly predictable.

I based my entry guess on several things. First, the MER team indicated that they were interested in features that were approximately 120 degrees from where Oppy reached Victoria. That indicates to me the cliffs on the North side and the dark streaks of soil above the crater's rim along the same stretch are priority. They are not going to go into the crater until those features are investigated. That tells me entry will be after Oppy passes over them. Second, the cliffs on the North side cannot easily be investigated from the rim like they already have for the ones near 'beacon'. They must go into the crater for these particular ones. Third, they cannot investigate the top of the North rim, if they go in near where Oppy currently is--Oppy might not be able to get out. Fourth, the MER team recently indicated that they were also interested in features near what we call "Soup Dragon", including some fault like structures. But, close inspection by Oppy for those seem to be secondary to the North cliff area. Fifth, the tilt for Oppy would be better for power reasons along the North East and East part of the crater. Sixth, the team wants to get into the crater ASAP--we don't know how long Oppy will last. Seventh, Oppy under current conditions would likely be able to get out of the crater along many bays of the Eastern edge of Victoria; yet, a wheel could go bad at anytime and Oppy could be disabled like Spirit currently is. Then, an egress out of the crater would become impossible. Eighth, if Oppy does get out of the Crater, then it can always reenter. A second entry would be best when considering investigation of the cliffs near 'beacon' from inside the crater. There is less risk at that point if Oppy gets disabled, since much of the mission to Victoria would already be complete. So a second entry for that area instead would have the greatest chance of the most complete mission success in investigating Victoria. It's likely that Oppy will die inside the crater near the Beacon cliffs for a number of reasons. But once the rest of the crater is toured, then the risk of reentry on the northwestern side and investigation of those cliffs would be VERY worth the effort. There is no guarantee that Oppy can make it back to Duck Bay from within the crater. The sand, dust, and tilt would be major obstacles. Movement along the rim will be less risky for the wheels. Once it gets back to Duck Bay, movement for Oppy will be less critical. So, the tilt problem won't be too restricting because Oppy will already be in an extended mission phase to Victoria. If it dies, then it dies. We will still have a lot of data for the entire crater.

By all means, the investigation of the Beacon cliffs are absolutely necessary. But, that is exactly what the MER team has already been doing from along the rim ever since it arrived at Victoria. Working within the crater along those particular cliffs would only be a significant bonus beyond the data that we already have, not critical.

I'm not part of the MER team, so they could easily view things differently. I'm just giving my 2 cents worth. I hope it makes some kind of sense.

Posted by: kenny Mar 6 2007, 08:07 AM

Following the Portugese Historical Method of predicting Martian activity, I go for Sol 1314 - a great year for Scotland.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bannockburn

Kenny

Posted by: ustrax Mar 6 2007, 09:33 AM

And for all http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomar#History...

Posted by: um3k Mar 6 2007, 02:13 PM

I'll claim my stake (or whatever) in sol 1280--a decent screen resolution.

Posted by: centsworth_II Mar 6 2007, 03:48 PM

My pick: 1299

I think they will go all the way to the potentially water-altered
fractures by Soup Dragon but take less time getting there than
the first half of the Duck Bay to Soup Dragon trip took. Then,
time for investigating the fractures and getting back to the
ingress point (wherever that is).

When they enter, I see the same situation as the approach to
Burns Cliff. Opportunity will slowly descend along the side of
a cape, investigating the layers and testing the footing along
the way. If the footing remains secure as the tip of the Cape
is reached, Opportunity may round it, but if the slope becomes
too steep or slippery, Opportunity will back out and reenter in
another bay. Or perhaps cross the bay it is in to the adjacent
Cape.

OK, all together now. "Well, duh!"

Posted by: imipak Mar 7 2007, 07:46 PM

I'm still waiting for someone to point out either:

i. the rovers can navigate slopes greater than 18 degrees (I picked that figure up somewhere fairly authoritative I think - the JPL site?)

ii. that there's a slope on one of the bays of less than 18 degrees.

I know I must be wrong, because they're definitely planning to enter at some point... anyone feel up to administering the cluestick, and explaining which bit is wrong? OK, the images are foreshortened and distort the actual angle between the anulus and the chamfered ramp -- but surely those slopes are 30-35 degrees, at least, even at the shallowest point right at the rim.

(Whilst I'm at it -- I also don't think Oppy will be able to break out a bay and round a cape to the next one -- not only are the slopes too steep, the ground is deep, deep sand, a tar-pit for rovers if ever there was one. )

Posted by: djellison Mar 7 2007, 08:42 PM

30 degrees is about the best they can manage, and I would think all the slopes on the SE quadrant of the crater are less than that - and indeed some of the bays we've already seen, Duck/Bottomless etc are there or there abouts.

Doug

Posted by: tuvas Mar 7 2007, 08:58 PM

I think the slopes at Duck Bay are about 20 degrees, or slightly less. There's another point on the far rim with a comparable slope. 30 degrees is managable to decend always, getting out however isn't always possible at that slope (It depends on the material beneath the rover, rocks would allow it to leave, sand wouldn't.)

Posted by: centsworth_II Mar 7 2007, 09:42 PM

http://marsrovers.nasa.gov/mission/status_opportunityAll_2004.html#sol154 from July 1 and 7, 2004 discuss the rover's manuvers
on slopes greater that 25 degrees while desending into Endurance crater.
Other posts also discuss driving on slopes between 20 and 30 degrees.

Posted by: dvandorn Mar 8 2007, 02:12 AM

Do we know what effect (if any) Oppy's broken steering actuator on that one front wheel has on her ability to drive up and down slopes?

-the other Doug

Posted by: edstrick Mar 8 2007, 09:22 AM

My impression is that the angle of the front wheel should have pretty minimal effect on the slope climbing ability. If the wheel was canted 45 deg or more, then it would be significant to about as bad as the dead wheel on Spirit (for 60 to 90 deg)

I still don't like the "entry pool" phrase.. I keep getting this mental imagery of "GLUB! GLUB!"

Posted by: imipak Mar 9 2007, 10:24 PM

Thanks everyone for clearing that one up! 30 degrees it is.

Posted by: alan May 2 2007, 09:53 PM

Guesses so far in entry pool

1038 Floyd
1103 Ant103
1111 Nirgal
1111 atomoid
1122 climber
1139 ustrax
1140 tuvas
1143 imipak
1147 Bobby
1151 MahFL
1170 jamescanvin
1181 alan
1183 Oren Iishi
1192 Edward Schmitz
1200 Rakhir
1205 BrianL
1210 antioniseb
1219 MarsIsImportant
1224 Dfinrock
1234 PhilCo126
1235 dilo
1242 MizarKey
1244 bergadder
1255 Pavel
1270 AndyG
1280 um3k
1285 sattrackpro
1299 centsworth II
1305 pch
1313 Tesheiner
1314 kenny
1365 ToSeek
1395 micvoo
1425 Myran
1500 FIN Mars
1544 leustek

Posted by: leustek May 4 2007, 08:40 PM

Would anyone mind if I picked a new entry pool date?

My earlier pick was when I was hoping beyond all hope that Duck Bay would be approached by way of the far side.

Unless someone objects, I'll change to sol 1266.

Instead of "GLUB! GLUB!" I imagine easing into a relaxing jacuzzi with a cool drink in hand . Lets not focus on possible negative outcomes. There is nothing we can do about it anyway.

Posted by: MarsIsImportant May 4 2007, 09:19 PM

I don't think changing the entry date guess is fair this late in the game, at least officially. It is especially unfair to those who picked very early and are near correct, including me. We now know exactly where Opportunity will ingress, and the rover is currently 'high tailing it' to that point of entry. In fact, I think the pool should be closed to official guesses. However, I have no problem with discussing changed opinions. Just keep in mind that your first guess should be the official one.

Posted by: Edward Schmitz May 4 2007, 09:28 PM

Well, I don't know about anyone else, but I'm happy with http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=3633&view=findpost&p=78190!

Posted by: MarsIsImportant May 4 2007, 09:41 PM

Yes Edward. If there are not very many delays, then you look to be in the 'cat bird seat'. Realistically, there appears to be somewhere between 8 and 12 people still well within the range of probability. And you so happen to be right in the middle. My guess is still within range too, but it is on the long side.

Posted by: MarsIsImportant May 4 2007, 10:10 PM

Has it been determined what constitutes an actually ingress?

There is a big difference between a toe dip and an ingress. I think all six wheels down the slope should be considered an ingress. But what criteria determines the slope of the actual crater? These are questions that need to be answered soon.

Regardless, anybody that picked the toe dip 'Sol' should get an honorable mention.

Posted by: MarsIsImportant May 4 2007, 10:23 PM

Maybe, the pool should be divided into two?

We could have the BKEP (before known entry point ) section and the AKEP (after known entry point) section. The BKEP is naturally far superior, but the AKEP would give those who 'missed the boat' another shot at a quality guess. Of course, the AKEP should be opened up to all those who made guesses in the BKEP too.

Posted by: tuvas May 4 2007, 11:20 PM

As for me, I'd vote just leaving to when the press release states that it entered, I'm sure there will be some kind of a press release when it finally happens.

Posted by: alan May 5 2007, 12:44 AM

I see where this is going. We will end up with a page full of posts splitting hairs over a definintion of entry to determine who wins a pool with no prize.

Being one of the moderators I'm doing what I should have done when I dug up this thread: Closing it. Since leustek's new guess is already posted and is 100 sols away I'll let it stand.

Doug, not being in the pool can define what is the the definition of entry.

Thread closed.

(I agree with this - these threads are silly anyway, and having people changing all their numbers because they get it 'wrong' is sillier still. - Doug )

Posted by: climber Jul 17 2007, 07:13 PM

Here are the still possible winners.
I hope we'll stay in the 1200's !

Posted by: kenny Aug 14 2007, 11:26 AM

It's now Sol 1264, so MizarKey, bergadder and Pavel bite the dust.... and AndyG is heading the same way.

Posted by: AndyG Aug 14 2007, 01:58 PM

And I thought I was being improbably pessimistic, in order to convince the Norns to beat me.

Andy

Posted by: ToSeek Aug 14 2007, 02:37 PM

Heh, and I thought I was being incredibly pessimistic, but I've got the biggest "window of Opportunity" (pun intended) this side of Sol 1425.

Posted by: edstrick Aug 15 2007, 07:51 AM

I keep wincing at the term Entry "POOL".... glub. Though that's ONE thing I don't expect Mars to toss at the rovers!

Posted by: fredk Aug 15 2007, 04:49 PM

Unless, of course, it's a little pool of water http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?showtopic=4277

I just can't help bringing that fiasco up any chance I get. It was just so ridiculous.

Posted by: jamescanvin Aug 15 2007, 07:14 PM

Thanks for bringing that up again Fred, I missed it due to my travels, and somethings are not to be missed. How bizarre.

James

Posted by: kenny Sep 10 2007, 09:17 AM

It's now the morning of Sol 1290, so um3k is added to the List of the Lost. It's currently between sattrackpro (Sol 1285) and centsworth II (Sol 1299).

Posted by: sattrackpro Sep 10 2007, 01:02 PM

Well, I'm out of it now... I got close - centsworth II now looks to be the closest guesser at this point... maybe.

Posted by: centsworth_II Sep 10 2007, 05:23 PM

Of course my guess was based on an entirely different set of assumptions than what actually occurred.

Posted by: leustek Sep 10 2007, 08:29 PM

Life often takes peculiar turns doesn't it?

Posted by: PDP8E Sep 10 2007, 09:42 PM

Is it too late?

SOL 1339

Cheers

Posted by: alan Sep 11 2007, 12:16 AM

Yes, it is too late, the pool was closed in May when Oppy started driving back to Duck Bay

Posted by: jamescanvin Sep 11 2007, 09:07 AM

Yes, it is too late, 1339 is way too late! (I hope...)

Posted by: kenny Sep 11 2007, 11:51 AM

I don't think you're out of it, sattrackpro. If Oppy goes in tosol (1291) as is being predicted, then your sol 1285 bid (6 sols adrift) will be closer than centsworth II's Sol 1299 (8 sols adrift).

I'm assuming we're judging the closest guess to the actual entry sol, irrespective of whether that comes earlier or later.

Kenny

Posted by: antoniseb Sep 11 2007, 12:30 PM

I'd assumed we were using "The Price Is Right" system where the closest guess that is still over or equal to the actual entry date wins. Nothing was said about what happens if they roll the front wheels in and sit on the edge for three days. I guess the big prize would have to be split if that makes the winner ambiguous.

Concerning delays, are the MERs taking a few days off so that the DSN can pull images from Cassini, or is that a non-issue?

Posted by: jamescanvin Sep 11 2007, 01:13 PM

Not an issue, particularly with Mars and Saturn not being close together (~90 degrees) on the sky at the moment.

Posted by: sattrackpro Sep 11 2007, 01:25 PM

Thanks, Kenny. If Oppy goes in today... I'll count myself extremely lucky

Posted by: DEChengst Sep 11 2007, 07:45 PM

WOOHOO!

http://nasa.exploratorium.edu/mars/opportunity/forward_hazcam/2007-09-11/1F242803301EFF86ISP1212L0M1.JPG

Posted by: kenny Sep 12 2007, 08:43 AM

So Sol 1291 was entry day, all 6 wheels inside Victoria.

http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2007-99b

"Today, NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity entered Victoria Crater for the first time..... Opportunity drove far enough in -- about four meters (13 feet) -- to get all six wheels past the crater rim. Then it backed uphill for about three meters (10 feet). "

I will leave the final judgment of the winner to one of our adjudicators.

Kenny

Posted by: djellison Sep 12 2007, 09:04 AM

1285 sattrackpro
1299 centsworth II

Entry 1291

Sattrackpro -6
Centsworth +8

STP wins - his is the closest estimate.

Doug

Posted by: brellis Sep 12 2007, 09:20 AM

Good effort centsworth - missed it on the pro side!

Posted by: Tesheiner Sep 12 2007, 10:40 AM

I don't know if there will be additional prizes to the winner but this one is for sure.



Congrats Sattrackpro!

And I think centsworth II deserves another one too.

Posted by: sattrackpro Sep 12 2007, 12:28 PM

Thanks for the bar, Tesh - It's saved and soon framed!

Thanks Doug... for the adjudication - and for all the fun this place provides for so many!

Posted by: climber Sep 12 2007, 08:18 PM

You're the winner Eduardo !
Oppy entered Vicky (nearly) when SPIRIT was 1313


PS : Congratulations STKPRO

Posted by: SpaceListener Sep 12 2007, 10:17 PM

A new topic would be when the Opportunity would be getting out of Victory. Indeed, now it is long time to predict on two things: She will stay there forever or will leave out of the Victory.

Posted by: centsworth_II Sep 13 2007, 12:11 AM

Thanks, but I think Sattrackpro deserves the undisputed title.
(Ill take a snack size bar for second place.)

Posted by: PhilCo126 Sep 16 2007, 06:00 PM

Were these first 'steps' not conducted as an ingress test, after which they should try to get completely out again?
Otherwise Victoria crater could become Oppy's grave

Posted by: djellison Sep 16 2007, 06:04 PM

Catch up Phil - they did a toe-dip in and out again - and since then, have now gone fully back in.

Posted by: Aussie Sep 17 2007, 05:51 AM

I am not sure that I really have my mind around this toe dip concept. They put all six wheels down the slope, then they backed up to ensure that they could get out. Why? If there was undue slippage or (unlikely but possible as Brian L implied) the backout resulted in a purgatory event, then what was the payoff for this evolution. Better to have deferred the risk until after exploration within the crater had been completed and then experiment with egress. But then again I guess that I am too conservative ever to be a rover driver.

Posted by: djellison Sep 17 2007, 07:20 AM

Driving out they used the visidom technique to make sure they were not slipping too much - and if you read the updates you'll see that the rover identified a slip of 40% and stopped driving.

Better to know you can get out before getting in much deeper.

Doug

Posted by: fredk Sep 17 2007, 03:34 PM

The toedip policiy makes sense as far as traction on the (hopefully) rocky interior slope goes. If that traction is anomalously bad, you probably want to rethink going in deep, and may want to get out and try somewhere else. But if the raised drift at the edge of the rim could not be driven back across without severe slippage, but the rocky slope was OK, then clearly once you're "in" you may as well go all the way in for the white layer. As it turned out there was some slippage backing out on the drift, but hopefully that won't effect the eventual egress.

Posted by: mhoward Sep 17 2007, 04:34 PM

It's all dust under the bridge now - we're in. Plus, egress worked and wasted little time. Hooray for our side!

Posted by: climber Sep 17 2007, 05:32 PM

I guess you've also noted how "agressive" the toe dip has been as compared to Endurance. We're talking of meters, no longer of centimeters.