When Will Oppy Be Free |
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When Will Oppy Be Free |
 May 18 2005, 04:29 AM
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#1
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 Senior Member  Group: Members Posts: 1887 Joined: 20-November 04 From: Iowa Member No.: 110  |
Place your bets. When will Oppy be free of this dune. Pick the sol when all of the wheels are out of the trench and on top of the soil.
I'll start by picking sol 490 |
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May 18 2005, 04:51 AM
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#2
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 Member Group: Members Posts: 578 Joined: 5-November 04 From: Denmark Member No.: 107 |
I don't think (hope) it will take 23 SOLS to get out of this!
 I will say in about a week we will be free. So I bet we are free on SOL 474  The winner get's a Mars bar right? 
-------------------- "I want to make as many people as possible feel like they are part of this adventure. We are going to give everybody a sense of what exploring the surface of another world is really like"
- Steven Squyres |
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May 18 2005, 06:09 AM
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#3
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 Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2228 Joined: 1-December 04 From: Marble Falls, Texas, USA Member No.: 116 |
Good idea, but I was hoping we'd get another sol or two before having to hazard a guess.
I think we may need to better define the conditions where we would all agree Opportunity is mostly moving freely. May I suggest a progress ratio of 1 unit of length of actual movement per 2 units of length of driving attempt?I totally lost out on the Titan landing location poll because I got into that bet after all the good locations had already been chosen. I see that there are major risks when betting early, too. However we define success, I'll pick sol 480, and take my chances. (I'm really tempted to guess it will be sooner than that, but I am sticking with 480.) -------------------- ...Tom
I'm not a Space Fan, I'm a Space Exploration Enthusiast. |
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May 18 2005, 07:20 AM
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#4
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 Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 3419 Joined: 9-February 04 From: Minneapolis, MN, USA Member No.: 15 |
I'll say Sol 479, but that we won't drive very far (less than 20 meters) from the "free" spot for another three to five sols after that.
-the other Doug -------------------- “The trouble ain't that there is too many fools, but that the lightning ain't distributed right.” -Mark Twain
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May 18 2005, 09:19 AM
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#5
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 Member Group: Members Posts: 255 Joined: 4-January 05 Member No.: 135 |
482 for me
Chris |
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May 18 2005, 09:35 AM
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#6
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Founder Group: Chairman Posts: 14432 Joined: 8-February 04 Member No.: 1 |
I'm going to be brave, and out of character is predicting ahead of most people - and say that oppy will be up and out of the trench on onto the surface properly by Sol 475
Doug |
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May 18 2005, 09:39 AM
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#7
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 Member Group: Members Posts: 524 Joined: 24-November 04 From: Heraklion, GR. Member No.: 112 |
I 'll put my bet on Sol 476, thank you...
By the way, no official announcement of the Titan landing poll yet 
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May 18 2005, 09:42 AM
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#8
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 Special Cookie Group: Members Posts: 2168 Joined: 6-April 05 From: Sintra | Portugal Member No.: 228 |
 477
-------------------- "Ride, boldly ride," The shade replied, "If you seek for Eldorado!"
Edgar Alan Poe |
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May 18 2005, 10:00 AM
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#9
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Founder Group: Chairman Posts: 14432 Joined: 8-February 04 Member No.: 1 |
QUOTE (TheChemist @ May 18 2005, 09:39 AM) By the way, no official announcement of the Titan landing poll yet  I'm still waiting for some papers or announcements from the Huyg team to wrap that one up Doug |
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May 18 2005, 10:16 AM
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#10
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Member Group: Members Posts: 877 Joined: 7-March 05 From: Switzerland Member No.: 186 |
Is sol 483 still free? Ok! My vote sol 483 in terms of an average of 3 meters wheel turns per sol.
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May 18 2005, 11:59 AM
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#11
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 Member Group: Members Posts: 710 Joined: 28-September 04 Member No.: 99 |
I think it will be sol 485.
But actually I'm more interested in when Opp will reach the 'real' etched terrain, now that the dunes prove to be such a pain. How many meters left to go? |
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May 18 2005, 05:11 PM
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#12
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Member Group: Members Posts: 350 Joined: 20-June 04 From: Portland, Oregon, U.S.A. Member No.: 86 |
I say sol 470.
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May 18 2005, 06:13 PM
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#13
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1887 Joined: 20-November 04 From: Iowa Member No.: 110 |
A quick analysis of the bets so far (best to do this before most of the options are taken) with 11 bets in we have an average of 479, the earliest is 470 (mike) latest is 490 (me)
It seems I'm the most pessimistic here, hope I'm wrong. |
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May 18 2005, 06:29 PM
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#14
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Junior Member Group: Members Posts: 81 Joined: 19-April 05 Member No.: 256 |
I'm going to go with Sol 486. I don't want to be too pessimistic, but things never go as quick as I would like to see. Plus, all the good numbers are used up.
Gary |
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May 18 2005, 07:11 PM
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#15
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1636 Joined: 9-May 05 From: Lima, Peru Member No.: 385 |
My guess is that Opportunity will be free of sand stuck by sun 491. On the other words, that is when Opportunity has reached at a point which it will turn on the other way.
Rodolfo 
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