IPB

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

10 Pages V  « < 8 9 10  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
Voyager Enters Final Frontier Of Solar System
Xcalibrator
post Sep 17 2018, 03:22 PM
Post #136


Newbie
*

Group: Members
Posts: 17
Joined: 26-August 13
Member No.: 6994



QUOTE (dtolman @ Sep 16 2018, 11:23 PM) *
As of a week later, I see its spiking a lot higher, then started dropping rapidly - for those of us following along at home - if this would follow the v1 plot, would this then crash to the floor?

dilo included a nice plot of the V1 data in post 86 showing how the >0.5 MeV proton rate crashed to 2.1 and >70 MeV rose less dramatically to 2.26 ct/s. The latest modeling I've read about suggests that the boundary is (or was in 2017) moving outward while V2 is catching up to it. If the boundary breathes in and out, V2 may cross it more than once, making things a bit confusing. The web-page tools that let you make your own plots seem to have lost access to the latest data in the intervening years so we'll just have to wait for what they give us every few days. (Sorry, I can't figure out how to post dilo's plot directly here.)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Xcalibrator
post Sep 22 2018, 02:23 AM
Post #137


Newbie
*

Group: Members
Posts: 17
Joined: 26-August 13
Member No.: 6994



The plots are continuing to look very promising, and they were updated not once but twice(!) today, after many months of couple-times-a-week. I'd bet the >0.5 MeV rate is below 10 ct/s by the end of next week and then we'll see it in the news.



Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Xcalibrator
post Oct 8 2018, 02:10 PM
Post #138


Newbie
*

Group: Members
Posts: 17
Joined: 26-August 13
Member No.: 6994



Well, I was too optimistic about the timing, but there is some attention in the news. Not really any new info there, but yes, we are officially getting close.

Edit: Note that although the plots say "6-Hour Avg" they are actually 12-hour aves. They switched several months ago (or maybe a year or two)--don't know why.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Floyd
post Oct 8 2018, 05:27 PM
Post #139


Member
***

Group: Members
Posts: 819
Joined: 4-September 06
From: Boston
Member No.: 1102



The >70 Me V just need to climb from 2.05 to 2.25 and the >0.5 Me V drop from 27 to about 2. Hoping by the end of the Month...


EDIT Nov 6, 2018 LINK to plots. Both plots are about to go off scale in the correct direction!!!


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Xcalibrator
post Nov 6 2018, 10:33 PM
Post #140


Newbie
*

Group: Members
Posts: 17
Joined: 26-August 13
Member No.: 6994



There are some pretty big flux changes in the past two days. A watched high-energy particle detector never boils, but any day now...
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Floyd
post Nov 7 2018, 05:29 PM
Post #141


Member
***

Group: Members
Posts: 819
Joined: 4-September 06
From: Boston
Member No.: 1102



It seems to be happening. Xcalibrator Plots above seem to update to latest plots automatically rather than display the plots for the day he posted (Sept 21). The November 7 Plot for >0.5 MeV has dropped to 20. I'll bet Xcalibrator's prediction of under 10 particles/second for >0.5 MeV occurs by November 11---OK it may take 3 week rather than one from Sep 21 for his prediction---but it really seems to be happening.

Edit 11/8/18 The >70MeV is now up to 2.25 (interstellar space level Voyager 1) and the >0.5 MeV down to 19 cts/sec. Moving nicely...Looks like we are in the Heliocliff. Still possible to get to 10 cts/sec by Monday smile.gif


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
alan
post Nov 9 2018, 05:34 PM
Post #142


Senior Member
****

Group: Members
Posts: 1847
Joined: 20-November 04
From: Iowa
Member No.: 110



NASA Voyager @NASAVoyager

Rumors of Voyager 2's exit from the heliosphere have been greatly exaggerated. Check out the y-axis on this graph. It goes down to 19. We're waiting for a count of near zero heliospheric particles/sec before she's joined me in interstellar space. https://go.nasa.gov/2JThxXq

https://twitter.com/NASAVoyager/status/1060720885345079296
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Floyd
post Nov 9 2018, 07:23 PM
Post #143


Member
***

Group: Members
Posts: 819
Joined: 4-September 06
From: Boston
Member No.: 1102



The Voyager Twitter is to be believed over speculation in this thread. That said 2 cts/sec in the 0.5 MeV channel is the number we want to get down to (not zero). If you look at the necessary drops to get there we need to go from about 27 at end of October to 2 outside. In five steps that would be 27, 22, 17, 12, 7, 2. We went from 27 down to 19 (almost 2 steps) and have bounced up a bit today. So when we get below 17 we will be 2/5 of the way there. Five counts/sec drops are possible in 1-2 days, but getting under 7 and close to 2 could still be some time off. We will know a lot more by Monday on how fast and how monotonic this drop is. Are we in the Heliocliff? We will know when we hit 2 and/or the Voyager team makes an announcement.


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Xcalibrator
post Nov 9 2018, 09:16 PM
Post #144


Newbie
*

Group: Members
Posts: 17
Joined: 26-August 13
Member No.: 6994



Let's see if I can show the Voyager1 plot from dilo/post86 here for more convenient comparison....

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Floyd
post Nov 10 2018, 01:48 PM
Post #145


Member
***

Group: Members
Posts: 819
Joined: 4-September 06
From: Boston
Member No.: 1102



Thanks Xcalibrator, that is very helpful. I had not realized the >0.5 MeV had dropped from 25 to under 10 twice before finally bottoming out for Voyager 1. The fall is definitely not monotonic. Drop to about 17 on 10th. Back up to 19 on 11th. So we will bounce up and down for a while.....


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Floyd
post Nov 16 2018, 07:00 PM
Post #146


Member
***

Group: Members
Posts: 819
Joined: 4-September 06
From: Boston
Member No.: 1102



Well we are definitely not down to 2 yet on the >0.5 MeV, but we have dropped from 26 to below 16 (as of 11/17/18) and are doing a lot of bouncing up and down. Hopefully Voyager 2 will exit the heliosphere and be down to 2 by 2019 rolleyes.gif I believe the image below will automatically update once or twice a day--check Generated Date and time at bottom. I believe time is Z and so -5 EST and -8 PST.



--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Floyd
post Nov 18 2018, 06:07 PM
Post #147


Member
***

Group: Members
Posts: 819
Joined: 4-September 06
From: Boston
Member No.: 1102



Nice drop to 11 counts/sec for >0.5 MeV/nuc ions today (11/18/18), but if Voyager 2 is like Voyager 1 we may bounce back up to 24-28 counts/sec a couple of times before exiting the heliosphere for real.

Edit 11/20/18. Down to 8 counts/sec for >0.5 MeV/nuc ions. Looking promising, but could bounce all the way back up. When it gets to 6 counts/sec I think we can safely conclude we are in the Helioclif. When it gets to under 4 counts/sec I think we can conclude there will be an announcement from the mission...



--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

10 Pages V  « < 8 9 10
Reply to this topicStart new topic

 



RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 21st November 2018 - 04:11 AM
RULES AND GUIDELINES
Please read the Forum Rules and Guidelines before posting.

IMAGE COPYRIGHT
Images posted on UnmannedSpaceflight.com may be copyrighted. Do not reproduce without permission. Read here for further information on space images and copyright.

OPINIONS AND MODERATION
Opinions expressed on UnmannedSpaceflight.com are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of UnmannedSpaceflight.com or The Planetary Society. The all-volunteer UnmannedSpaceflight.com moderation team is wholly independent of The Planetary Society. The Planetary Society has no influence over decisions made by the UnmannedSpaceflight.com moderators.
SUPPORT THE FORUM
Unmannedspaceflight.com is a project of the Planetary Society and is funded by donations from visitors and members. Help keep this forum up and running by contributing here.