OPAG May 2006 recommendations are out Options

[Guest_BruceMoomaw_*]

http://www.lpi.usra.edu/opag/may_06_meeting/agenda.pdf

(I wasn't quite sure where to put this, so here it is in the "Jupiter" section.) The actual presentations aren't on the site quite yet (Fran Bergenal tells me they will be shortly), although the meeting agenda is. OPAG will also be releasing an official exploration "Pathways" document within another week or two.

The main conclusions to be drawn from the report are that Europa is still first priority, a Titan mission must be Flagship-class and should include both an orbiter and "a balloon/aerobot/probe", and discussions of possible Enceladus missions are just starting to get underway.

[Mariner9]

The Ganymede Observer presentation was interesting. What kind of cost structure were they imagining? Apparently radiation hardened electronics isn't as big an issue as it would be for Europa, and perhaps the fuel requirment to break into Ganymede orbit a bit smaller.... but still, I would think this would be outside a New Frontiers mission scope, and someplace in the Small Flagship range.

And we've seen how well Flagships have done in the budget lately.

[JRehling]

The Ganymede Observer presentation was interesting. What kind of cost structure were they imagining? Apparently radiation hardened electronics isn't as big an issue as it would be for Europa, and perhaps the fuel requirment to break into Ganymede orbit a bit smaller.... but still, I would think this would be outside a New Frontiers mission scope, and someplace in the Small Flagship range.

And we've seen how well Flagships have done in the budget lately.

Imagine the next 30 years' outer solar system missions in terms of their total budget, expressed in 100 of some unit (which would be tens of millions of current dollars).

Now with the relative levels of interest in Europa, Titan, Enceladus, and the atmospheres of the giant planets, how many of those 100 units will Ganymede get? Let's say the four previous goals get about 20 each, leaving 20 for all remaining goals. Ganymede's not going to get ALL of the rest of the money -- probably not so many as 10 of the 100 units.

Now count how many Flagship/NF missions there will likely be in 30 years, and see if 10 units buys you one.

In a nutshell, Ganymede is not possibly going to get a dedicated mission. It might get a good look-at with a Europa mission, and/or other flybys of craft using Jupiter for gravity assists.