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The Last 10 Days In The Space Shuttle's Bunker?, Atlantis apparently to be scrapped in 2008
Guest_BruceMoomaw_*
post Feb 21 2006, 03:05 AM
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http://dsc.discovery.com/news/briefs/20060...lantis_spa.html :

"Under orders to retire the shuttle fleet by 2010, NASA plans to cancel shuttle Atlantis' next scheduled overhaul and mothball the ship in 2008.

"Rather than becoming a museum piece, however, Atlantis will serve as a spare parts donor for sister ships Discovery and Endeavour to complete assembly of the International Space Station.

" 'People are already calling us and asking us can they display one of our orbiters in their museum after we're done. I'm not giving anybody anything until we're all agreed the station is complete and the shuttles' job is done,' shuttle program manager Wayne Hale told Kennedy Space Center employees during a televised address on Friday.

" 'We're going to keep (Atlantis) in as near flight-ready condition as we can without putting it through a (modification and overhaul) so we can use those parts,' Hale said.
____________________

Jeffrey Bell has recently finished a piece for "SpaceDaily" proclaiming that the wholesale cancellation of other NASA projects in the FY 2007 budget to keep Shuttle and ISS going is actually just part of Michael Griffin's Machiavellian strategy to get both of the cancelled, by making it clear that they can be saved now only at the cost of a swarm of other projects (including Bush's lunar program) which are now more popular. Certainly that is the overwhelming message being conveyed, whether Griffin planned it that way or not -- I haven't seen a single newspaper editorial yet that favors retaining Shuttle at this point.

(Bell also claims to see other, subtler evidence of this strategy in Griffin's moves over the last few weeks -- and also signs that he definitely plans to throw ISS from the train as well, by just giving it to the Russians half-finished in a few years and paying off the ESA and Japan for their unlaunched space lab modules. These include the fact that he's cancelled work on the unmanned cargo variant of the Crew Exploration Vehicle that will be necessary to take up replacement Control Moment Gyros to the ISS after the Shuttle is no longer available.)
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Guest_BruceMoomaw_*
post Feb 23 2006, 04:37 AM
Post #2





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QUOTE (mcaplinger @ Feb 23 2006, 03:47 AM) *
No doubt this explains why the Russians have never lost people on Soyuz flights. (Well, no: four people dead in two entry accidents. Would you argue that the US would never have accidents like those? We came fairly close to losing the US crew of Apollo-Soyuz to an accident similar to Soyuz 11.)

Forgive my lack of confidence in your ability to flawlessly predict these alternate-history outcomes. And I'm not sure what this CEV-type vehicle would have been doing; certainly neither DOD nor NASA had any interest in such a thing in the time frame we're discussing. For that matter, I'm not sure what the current CEV is supposed to be doing either smile.gif


"Flawless prediction" has nothing to do with it. The types of accidents that happened on Soyuz 1 and Soyuz 11 were the result of the incredibly shoddy design and assembly techniques used by the Soviets, as opposed to the US -- and those kinds of accidents, and ALL the kinds of dangerous accidents suffered by US capsule missions, are the sorts of things that could also have happened on a Shuttle. I never said that capsules equipped with escape rockets are totally safe; I said that they are by their basic nature much safer than a large winged craft, and the fact that neither fatal Shuttle accident would have happened on a capsule vehicle is further proof of that.

You are, of course, right that NASA had no interest in that kind of vehicle in that time frame -- because, and only because, there wasn't enough taxpayer-provided money in it. As for the DoD, see my article for one other fascinating little tidbit from Thompson's testimony:

"We then [after Nixon's secret decision] undertook obviously to build the Shuttle first, and then a modular, zero-gravity space station second...As the thing evolved, we started with the Shuttle, and the requirements for the Shuttle were driven 99 percent by what we wanted to do to support the space station. It also happened to give the Air Force the kind of payload volume and the kind of capability they wanted, although they really wanted to be at higher orbits for their work.

"So the Air Force came in and said, 'We will plan to use the Shuttle, and we will also take on the task of building the Interim Upper Stage, which was part of the low-Earth-orbital infrastructure. So NASA embarked on the Shuttle. It wasn't necessary to commit to a space station at that time because the Shuttle had to be built and operational before you commit to the space station, and the President at that time -- Nixon -- had other things on his mind. He didn't get up and make a great big speech about low-Earth-orbital infrastructure.' "

Thus we have further confirmation that the Air Force didn't demand that specific design for the Shuttle; NASA told them that it was a magic Dr. Feelgood elixir for all the Air Force's needs (and so safe, too -- only a 1 in 100,000 chance of a launch accident!); and so the Air Force agreed to go along, although even after that sales job it wasn't really what they wanted. By 1985 -- before the Challenger accident -- they had already realized that NASA had royally screwed them; the vehicle wasn't even remotely as capable and cheap as NASA had promised it would be, and their own estimates gave it a 1 in 56 chance of launch failure. So, thank God, by mid-1985 they had already demanded that the Titan production line be started up again -- and if they hadn't done that, the Challenger disaster would have had much worse consequences for this country than it actually had.

As for what the current CEV is "supposed to be doing": why, it's supposed to be doing exactly what Shuttle and Station were always supposed to do -- siphon massive amounts of taxpayer money into NASA and into the Space Pork Complex. Like them, it has no other real purpose. But at least it's safer and more economical than they are, and it has the potential to gradually evolve into future types of manned vehicles that might someday actually be useful for something.

QUOTE (AlexBlackwell @ Feb 23 2006, 01:38 AM) *
Because the vast if not overwhelming majority of their constituents don't care what "ESA and (to a lesser extent) JAXA" do.



Of course, the same thing is true of the vast majority of European and Japanese citizens. Lo and behold, their nations have fair-sized space programs anyway. So I repeat: why wouldn't the US? Are we supposed to believe that the US government and its citizens are THAT idiotically addicted to purposeless manned space flights?

Incidentally, the Huygens and Hayabusa missions seem to have attracted considerable interest and support from European and Japanese citizens, without a single astronaut being involved -- just as the Voyager, Hubble and MER missions did here.
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- BruceMoomaw   The Last 10 Days In The Space Shuttle's Bunker?   Feb 21 2006, 03:05 AM
- - Richard Trigaux   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 21 2006, 04:05 A...   Feb 21 2006, 05:49 AM
- - djellison   One of Maggie Thatchers few highlights - not invol...   Feb 21 2006, 08:17 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   "I still maintain that the US HAS to complete...   Feb 21 2006, 09:24 AM
|- - djellison   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 21 2006, 09:24 A...   Feb 21 2006, 09:47 AM
- - edstrick   One big lesson of the post-Columbia "test...   Feb 21 2006, 11:15 AM
- - Richard Trigaux   Without entering into the "gordian-knot mess...   Feb 21 2006, 03:15 PM
- - PhilCo126   As we already mentioned in the 2nd BIS book on the...   Feb 21 2006, 03:58 PM
|- - MahFL   Its going to take much much longer than anyone thi...   Feb 21 2006, 05:23 PM
- - Richard Trigaux   When I think back twenty years ago, when the shutt...   Feb 21 2006, 05:34 PM
|- - dilo   QUOTE (Richard Trigaux @ Feb 21 2006, 06...   Feb 21 2006, 09:33 PM
|- - Bob Shaw   QUOTE (Richard Trigaux @ Feb 21 2006, 05...   Feb 21 2006, 10:32 PM
|- - dilo   QUOTE (Bob Shaw @ Feb 21 2006, 11:32 PM) ...   Feb 22 2006, 08:46 AM
|- - Bob Shaw   QUOTE (dilo @ Feb 22 2006, 08:46 AM) Perh...   Feb 22 2006, 10:55 PM
|- - dilo   QUOTE (Bob Shaw @ Feb 22 2006, 11:55 PM) ...   Feb 23 2006, 07:12 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   While I will agree that it's insane (even give...   Feb 22 2006, 01:19 AM
- - gpurcell   Look, the simplest explanation for the official an...   Feb 22 2006, 07:01 AM
|- - Richard Trigaux   QUOTE (gpurcell @ Feb 22 2006, 08:01 AM) ...   Feb 22 2006, 07:47 AM
|- - The Messenger   QUOTE (Richard Trigaux @ Feb 22 2006, 12...   Feb 23 2006, 05:44 PM
|- - ljk4-1   QUOTE (The Messenger @ Feb 23 2006, 12:44...   Feb 23 2006, 05:53 PM
- - edstrick   We have to remember that the IDEA of a space shutt...   Feb 22 2006, 08:57 AM
- - PhilCo126   After 25 years of Space Transportation System (STS...   Feb 22 2006, 09:45 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   An excellent case can be made that the basic conce...   Feb 22 2006, 11:21 AM
|- - mcaplinger   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 22 2006, 03:21 A...   Feb 22 2006, 04:03 PM
- - dvandorn   And you can add to Truax's comments the commen...   Feb 22 2006, 03:43 PM
- - Bill Harris   It will be an endless debate of whether or not the...   Feb 22 2006, 05:24 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (mcaplinger @ Feb 22 2006, 04:03 PM...   Feb 23 2006, 01:00 AM
|- - mcaplinger   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 22 2006, 05:00 P...   Feb 23 2006, 03:47 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   You can find an overall summary of Thompson's ...   Feb 23 2006, 01:17 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (dvandorn @ Feb 22 2006, 03:43 PM) ...   Feb 23 2006, 01:29 AM
|- - AlexBlackwell   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 23 2006, 01:29 A...   Feb 23 2006, 01:38 AM
|- - lyford   QUOTE (AlexBlackwell @ Feb 22 2006, 05:38...   Feb 23 2006, 02:06 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (mcaplinger @ Feb 23 2006, 03:47 AM...   Feb 23 2006, 04:37 AM
|- - AlexBlackwell   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 23 2006, 04:37 A...   Feb 23 2006, 04:12 PM
|- - hugh   I wouldn’t have called Bruce’s posts a “rant”. I d...   Feb 25 2006, 07:03 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (dvandorn @ Feb 22 2006, 03:43 PM) ...   Feb 23 2006, 04:52 AM
|- - Stephen   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 23 2006, 04:52 A...   Feb 23 2006, 10:33 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (AlexBlackwell @ Feb 23 2006, 04:12...   Feb 24 2006, 01:55 AM
|- - AlexBlackwell   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 24 2006, 01:55 A...   Feb 24 2006, 02:08 AM
|- - RNeuhaus   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 23 2006, 08:55 P...   Feb 24 2006, 03:21 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   You've just said yourself that American politi...   Feb 24 2006, 03:17 AM
|- - AlexBlackwell   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 24 2006, 03:17 A...   Feb 24 2006, 04:20 PM
- - dvandorn   Watch it, Rodolfo -- if you worked for NASA, this ...   Feb 24 2006, 04:21 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   If I may make a smart-alecky crack, the world has ...   Feb 24 2006, 04:02 PM
|- - Richard Trigaux   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 24 2006, 05:02 P...   Feb 24 2006, 05:25 PM
- - djellison   So what you're saying is that NASA should be d...   Feb 24 2006, 04:11 PM
- - djellison   We all know that Bruce is just someone who has to ...   Feb 24 2006, 05:00 PM
|- - AlexBlackwell   QUOTE (djellison @ Feb 24 2006, 05:00 PM)...   Feb 24 2006, 05:08 PM
- - djellison   You have to be stern and strict with him or he won...   Feb 24 2006, 05:22 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   At the risk of getting thrown out of this group by...   Feb 24 2006, 07:31 PM
|- - AlexBlackwell   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 24 2006, 07:31 P...   Feb 24 2006, 08:09 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (djellison @ Feb 24 2006, 05:00 PM)...   Feb 24 2006, 08:03 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (djellison @ Feb 24 2006, 04:11 PM)...   Feb 24 2006, 08:13 PM
|- - AlexBlackwell   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 24 2006, 08:13 P...   Feb 24 2006, 08:22 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (AlexBlackwell @ Feb 24 2006, 08:09...   Feb 24 2006, 08:27 PM
- - AlexBlackwell   I'll leave you with the last word in our debat...   Feb 24 2006, 08:42 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 24 2006, 08:03 P...   Feb 24 2006, 08:54 PM
|- - djellison   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 24 2006, 08:54 P...   Feb 24 2006, 09:59 PM
|- - AlexBlackwell   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 24 2006, 08:54 P...   Mar 18 2006, 12:50 AM
- - David   I don't see why the U.S./Soviet space race was...   Feb 24 2006, 11:21 PM
- - dvandorn   Well, Bruce, since *no* country on Earth has ever ...   Feb 25 2006, 02:01 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (djellison @ Feb 24 2006, 09:59 PM)...   Feb 25 2006, 02:23 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   QUOTE (dvandorn @ Feb 25 2006, 02:01 AM) ...   Feb 25 2006, 02:58 AM
|- - David   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 25 2006, 02:58 A...   Feb 25 2006, 03:46 AM
|- - dvandorn   QUOTE (David @ Feb 24 2006, 09:46 PM) Is ...   Feb 25 2006, 04:39 AM
- - Richard Trigaux   About the motives of exploration (Earth exploratio...   Feb 25 2006, 06:39 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   Well, I guess I'll have to stay "provocat...   Feb 25 2006, 11:47 PM
|- - Bob Shaw   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 25 2006, 11:47 P...   Feb 26 2006, 12:21 AM
||- - David   QUOTE (Bob Shaw @ Feb 26 2006, 12:21 AM) ...   Feb 26 2006, 03:06 AM
||- - Richard Trigaux   QUOTE (David @ Feb 26 2006, 04:06 AM) My ...   Feb 26 2006, 07:55 AM
|- - mcaplinger   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Feb 25 2006, 03:47 P...   Feb 26 2006, 03:56 AM
- - lyford   I appreciate the range of opinionated opinions exp...   Feb 26 2006, 01:47 AM
|- - djellison   QUOTE (lyford @ Feb 26 2006, 01:47 AM) PS...   Feb 26 2006, 09:41 AM
|- - lyford   QUOTE (djellison @ Feb 26 2006, 01:41 AM)...   Feb 26 2006, 04:57 PM
|- - mchan   QUOTE (djellison @ Feb 26 2006, 01:41 AM)...   Feb 27 2006, 07:09 AM
|- - helvick   QUOTE (mchan @ Feb 27 2006, 07:09 AM) I u...   Feb 27 2006, 06:13 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   I think the trouble stems from the fact that E-mai...   Feb 26 2006, 10:42 AM
- - djellison   Bingo. Doug   Feb 26 2006, 04:59 PM
- - Richard Trigaux   Doug, I would like to back mchan's last post,...   Feb 27 2006, 08:36 AM
- - djellison   The discussions about ID or SETI may be civil and ...   Feb 27 2006, 08:39 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   OK, acceptable. I can always go rant elsewhere......   Mar 1 2006, 11:53 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   Yeah, I saw that, and was cranking up to comment o...   Mar 18 2006, 03:45 AM
- - BruceMoomaw   Jeff Bell has for some time been confidently predi...   Mar 21 2006, 04:45 AM
|- - The Messenger   QUOTE (BruceMoomaw @ Mar 20 2006, 09:45 P...   Mar 21 2006, 09:08 PM
- - BruceMoomaw   Well, my God, that's because at this point the...   Mar 21 2006, 10:41 PM


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