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After Victoria..., .. what next?
ustrax
post May 30 2007, 03:47 PM
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Leaving aside the possible interest of the crater and speaking only of the feasiblity of reaching it how do you see this possible path?
It seems to me devoided of big dunes and with some good stretches of solid ground...
In how much time would a healthy Opportunity would cover this distance (roughly 1/3 of the total way)?
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dvandorn
post May 30 2007, 03:51 PM
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Exactly -- as Doug says, we need more HiRISE images of the entire area. I'm sure that a complete survey of the entire area is in the plans, since applying the ground truth we have from Oppy to the entire area is important in understanding the formation processes of the region, and HiRISE images are so good that they let us make some pretty high-order connections between where Oppy has been and the rest of the area. But it will probably be a good, long time (months, at least) before MRO captures all the data we want. (And remember, we'll probably want CRISM coverage of the area too, to help determine where we might find interesting minerology.)

The more I look at the area to the east-northeast, the more I like the idea of heading that way. If the terrain is as good as it looks, with 200+ meter drives you could reach the area of the A-B-C craters in as little as 100 sols of driving, as opposed to the probable 600 to 800 sols of driving needed to travel the same distance through etched terrain. And to top it off, once you finish with A-B-C (and possibly another sinkhole-like feature I'm thinking of as D, located to the west-southwest of A-B-C), there is what appears to be a straight shot on good terrain directly south to the area of Ithaca, so if Oppy is still working and you really wanted to, you could still get to Ithaca -- while getting more science in and possibly taking less time than if you took the more direct southeast route.

Now if I could only mention my ideas to the MER team... smile.gif I'm pretty sure, though, that if I, an interested amateur, sees these things, *someone* on the MER team has to have seen the same things and come to the same conclusions.

Fingers and toes crossed...

-the other Doug

p.s. -- if anyone has any good ideas for designations of A, B and C, even though we know they'll be preliminary and not adopted by the official MER team, I'd be more than happy. It gets a little bland to continue to refer to these very interesting targets by simple one-letter designations. And the best I've come up with is Moe, Larry and Curly, with the unlabeled D standing in as Shemp... biggrin.gif


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djellison
post May 30 2007, 03:55 PM
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We just built three new PC's here at work - Aramis, Athos and Porthos smile.gif


As for Ustrax's latest map - the first 800m - could be very fast.

The following 3km or so - 400 sols - that sort of time frame - looks very similar to the Erebus-Beagle terrain - but with some areas of much larger dunes.

Doug
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Guest_Edward Schmitz_*
post May 30 2007, 03:59 PM
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QUOTE (climber @ May 30 2007, 12:44 AM) *
... Can't we drive totaly blind for, say, 10 sols and then assess what has happened? ...
Will she find solutions we'd not imagined?


Tests like that can be done on earth without wasting time on mars. And as for finding 'solutions not imagined', it's always interesting watching your software in action but it really shouldn't be doing things that you didn't expect. That more often than not ends you up in a ditch.
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Guest_Edward Schmitz_*
post May 30 2007, 04:08 PM
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QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 03:30 AM) *
So is Olympus Mons....when do we start driving? ph34r.gif Sure - it's a long way but...it is THERE.

Who knows - maybe we can find somewhere to set a new speed record (>220m/sol) - but that route to the SE just looks NASTY.

Doug


Doug, I really think you haven't given this idea a fair hearing. While it does seem outside the rover's capability, I feel its important to 'think outside the box'. Let the creative mind soar free for a while. I don't think there is a solution forth coming but if we listen to the various ideas, we'll know for sure.
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djellison
post May 30 2007, 04:13 PM
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QUOTE (Edward Schmitz @ May 30 2007, 05:08 PM) *
Doug, I really think you haven't given this idea a fair hearing.


I don't think those advocating it have given HiRISE images a fair viewing. huh.gif I would love Opportunity to be able to make that trip - but no ammount of poetry or positive thinking will actually make it any easier.

Like I've said again and again - with the data we have in front of us - it's a crazy idea. If we get more HiRISE images that show eagle-to-endurance like terrain for the middle 10km of the tripe....let's do it. If it's all like the part we can see - Erebus-to-Beagle with larger dunes...let's forget about it.

There are places were I see the drive direction images being 180 degrees of this
http://marsrovers.jpl.nasa.gov/gallery/all...OUP2399R2M1.JPG

Experience tells us that you don't go through that. The vehicle can't do it. You've got to go around it - and around it is going to be hundreds of metres across more dunes. Given the data we have now it looks like a 5 year trip that Opportunity could just about make from a navigation perspective. I don't think it's a wise way to spend 5 years when there is every chance of never getting there and having our mobility go up in smoke 6k from anything.

Doug
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Guest_Edward Schmitz_*
post May 30 2007, 04:40 PM
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Dvandorn had an alternative idea above that doesn't take us through that area. And it still leaves us with the posibility that Ithica is within reach.

We haven't exhausted the creativity of this group, yet.

I haven't seen anything else in the area that would make a better long term target. That is of course that we squeeze every last bit out of VC. 'A bird in the hand' as they say...
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algorimancer
post May 30 2007, 04:48 PM
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I sure wish the HiRISE and other orbiter teams would get together with the Google Earth developers (Google Mars seems to have stalled long ago) and get all this imagery incorporated into the application, then we could really have a coherent look at the terrain and communally add and share annotations to everything - and actually all be on the same page in the course of this discussion. For an example of what is feasible (assuming that you have Google Earth installed), have a look at what I've been doing these past few months in terms of exploring Lake Charlotte (big lake/swamp east of Houston),
http://www.clarkandersen.com/LakeCharlotte/LakeCharlotte.kmz

It makes it easy to mark and label points of of interest, paths, regions, and even add overlay images, then easily share it all. As I've been scanning the greater Victoria region with the HiRISE Online Image Viewer I keep finding myself wishing for the ability to tag various features, mark potential paths, or simply view it from different orientations. Unfortunately the full-sized image is too big to overlay on GE, and I don't have an easy means of subdividing it.
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babakm
post May 30 2007, 05:17 PM
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QUOTE (algorimancer @ May 30 2007, 04:48 PM) *
I sure wish the HiRISE and other orbiter teams would get together with the Google Earth developers


It can't be too far away considering how much work they have already done on the other ASU instruments.

Speaking of...

If you click between this daytime THEMIS image centered on Ithaca and the (much less precise) Hematite map using the Layers dropdown at the top of the page, it looks like there are generally higher concentrations of Hematite to the South and East.
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fredk
post May 30 2007, 05:54 PM
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QUOTE (dvandorn @ May 30 2007, 01:22 PM) *
OK -- if we're seriously going to discuss where Oppy ought to go after Victoria, I must say I like Fred's idea of heading NW to get back onto the flat, almost-ripple-free terrain that lies beyond the northern extent of Victoria's apron....

I'd like to suggest a different set of targets. There are three craters of apparently wildly varying ages off to the east-northeast that would make a good site for a co-ordinated study set, which might only take a year or so of traveling to reach... So -- not only do I see a good set of targets, I see a set of targets that are both easier to reach and at least as valuable to study as Ithaca would be.

What do y'all think?
You read my mind, Doug! When I proposed my "escape route" onto the "tarmac" through the shortest stretch of dunes to the northeast of Victoria, I was eyeing those Victoria-class craters (A, B, C) as the first major targets, followed by (Hirise images favourable!) a drive southwards to the north rim of Big.

I really have to stress how much faster (and easier!) driving was from Endurance to Purgatory 1 versus Purgatory to Beagle. Just look at the route maps! It seems so obvious that, unless there was an extremely interesting target that could only be reached through a vast sea of dunes, getting back on the tarmac as quickly as possible would maximize the scientific return from the rover. Remember - we were doing 200 metres a day on the tarmac!!

As I believe SS has commented himself, we're at a stage now where getting information about the horizontal variation of the geology is as important if not more so than what we see vertically at Victoria. Once we're thoroughly done with Victoria, getting back on the tarmac is the only practical way to study those horizontal variations over significant distances.
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helvick
post May 30 2007, 06:58 PM
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QUOTE (gallen_53 @ May 30 2007, 04:37 PM) *
Aggressive exploration up the sides and along the edges of the crater would show us the limits of the rover's capability.

Amen to that.
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dvandorn
post May 30 2007, 07:10 PM
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QUOTE (fredk @ May 30 2007, 12:54 PM) *
You read my mind, Doug! When I proposed my "escape route" onto the "tarmac" through the shortest stretch of dunes to the northeast of Victoria, I was eyeing those Victoria-class craters (A, B, C) as the first major targets, followed by (Hirise images favourable!) a drive southwards to the north rim of Big.

Yeah -- like I say, *if* HiRISE imagery shows there is a relatively clear path through the northeastern apron of Victoria back up to the "tarmac," as you put it (as good a name as any), and *if* there are no major drive-around obstacles along the route to A-B-C, at an average of 200 meters per sol driving, it would only take 100 driving sols to cover 20 km. And I'm not even positive that A-B-C is as far as 20 km, that complex may only be 12 to 15 km away.

While that kind of traverse would have seemed like a completely unreasonable goal at the beginning of the mission, we know now that, if we choose, we *can* drive an average of 200 km per sol for extended periods. And heck, even if Oppy adopted the drive-three-survey-one sol plan used by Spirit on its way to the Columbia Hills, it ought not take more than 150 sols, max, to get from Victoria to A. Perhaps as little as 100 to 125.

I'm not too worried about it at present, since we're probably looking at spending the entire Martian summer and fall at Victoria. But for a long-term plan, I think that any traverse plan that places us back on the tarmac stands a good chance of getting us to another interesting location before winter solstice.

I'd be far more comfortable with an extended mission plan that gets us to a new set of interesting targets before winter solstice, than with a plan that calls for us to just sit at Victoria for the entirety of the next winter -- assuming we're done with Victoria by then. And I have to agree with Doug, I just don't see a clear straight path to Ithaca from Victoria.

And, of course, we have to understand that Oppy could die, become sensor-crippled or become hobbled at almost any time. I will rather diffidently make the point that if we lose Oppy's IDD in the midst of the Victoria campaign (and the IDD is the logical item to be lost next, since it is the most degraded of any of Oppy's sensing equipment up to now), it will take considerably less time to gather as much information as possible from Vicky and it may make more sense to observe what we can of other interesting targets before anything else dies, and especially before she completely loses a wheel and becomes hobbled like her sister. Without the IDD, you only have Pancam and mini-TES for detailed scientific analyses, and it will take far less time to gather that data than will be taken deploying the arm and running week-long Mossbauer and APXS integrations.

But, of course, we *will* have to get some decent HiRISE coverage of the whole area before we can do more than engage in energetic arm-waving... smile.gif

-the other Doug


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MarsIsImportant
post May 31 2007, 04:10 AM
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I like the Craters A, B, and C idea better than straight to Ithaca plan It's crazy too; but at least it's possible as long as a Global Sandstorm does not occur anytime soon.

We have been extremely lucky up to now that a major sandstorm hasn't happened directly along Oppy's path--although there have been a couple of scares. I'm surprised nobody has mentioned that danger yet on this particular topic. The only dangers discussed have been associated with terrain and mechanical breakdowns due to longevity. But the terrain is the least of Oppy's worries and threats on such a long journey. The rover would not last a few days if one of these sandstorms does occur. The known history of Mars suggests that we are long overdue for such an occurance.

Let me illustrate how crazy the Ithaca idea is. It's like a mission to Mars is somehow expected to reach Pluto. It isn't going to make it. We have a minimum of 2 years of good science left at Victoria, maybe 3 to 4 years. A 5 year trip in "the land of nothing" really means expecting the rover to last another 8 years total at a minimum. Yet the most interesting parts of Ithaca are over 40km away, not just 20km to the rim!!! I really think there is a reason why no probe has been sent toward a neighboring stellar system yet...guys. Ithaca deserves a dedecated mission with its own up-to-date rover designed to do the job. One could be sent from Earth and reach Ithaca sooner than Oppy could realistically get there, even if the current rover were to somehow survive the years.

Let's face the fact that Opportunity is likely to die in or near Victoria. If it survives, then we still have several years to decide where it goes next. But I'm sure whereever it goes, it will be a death march. That's assuming Oppy can actually get out of Victoria.
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centsworth_II
post May 31 2007, 04:24 AM
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QUOTE (MarsIsImportant @ May 31 2007, 12:10 AM) *
Ithaca deserves a dedecated mission...

I think it might be a few hundred down
on a list of "deserving sites" on Mars.
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Pando
post May 31 2007, 05:25 AM
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Hey Ustrax, my good friend,

remember

the

good

old

days

...and you haven't changed a bit! biggrin.gif smile.gif

Pando (aka 'youremi')
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