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Unmanned Spaceflight.com _ Opportunity _ Pool: Arrival at Victoria
Posted by: avkillick Aug 5 2005, 07:50 PM
OK - for a little diversion, give your best guess as to the arrival of Oppy at Victoria. Before we do that, perhaps some agreement as when we can say that event has happened.
First complete panorama of crater interior perhaps?
Posted by: djellison Aug 5 2005, 08:20 PM
I'd say the first image which shows anything that could be considered part of a dune at the bottom of the crater.
we could 'arrive' and take 6 days for a panorama 
I will go for 663
Doug
Posted by: deglr6328 Aug 5 2005, 08:28 PM
sol 600 (via massive rogue dust devil 
)
Posted by: ElkGroveDan Aug 5 2005, 08:45 PM
I'll take sol 702.
I will also predict that we will be amazed at the made-to-order entry ramp that appears among the steep unaproachable slopes everywhere else. There will be lots of useful geology, but fewer chances for up-close contact than there were in Endurance due to steep slopes and large dunes.
Posted by: gpurcell Aug 5 2005, 08:50 PM
Sol 680
Posted by: OWW Aug 5 2005, 08:51 PM
I think Opportunity will arrive on sol 650.... at Erebus!
And Victoria? Never.
1. The etched terrain has countless interesting science targets. If Spirit stops every 50 meters on Husband Hill, what makes you think Opportunity won't do the same here? The MOC images show many spectacular mesas ahead.
2. The etched terrain is covered with dunes similar to purgatory. That means 30 meters per sol at best.
The way I see it, Oppy will only reach Victoria if the batteries are still working on sol 1500. 
Posted by: dot.dk Aug 5 2005, 08:52 PM
How far away from Oppys current position is Victoria?
Posted by: dot.dk Aug 5 2005, 09:03 PM
I found this map and it looks like it's a little over 2 km before we will reach Victoria.
If we could do 200 m / SOL it would only take 10 SOLs
http://img225.imageshack.us/my.php?image=victoriadistance2cp.jpg
Posted by: alan Aug 5 2005, 09:05 PM
sol 780
Posted by: Nirgal Aug 5 2005, 09:43 PM
-> my bet: Christmas Eve 2005
things in Favor for reaching Victoria :
- North-south running dunes
- Flat bedrock pavement
- Proven inter-dune driving technique with 30 meters a day -> 2 km in 70 Sols
- Enough solar power through sol 700 (Hevlicks POwer Chart !)
- Cleaning events
- And last not least: Victoria seems still considered a target by Steve Squyres
(at least implicitely so according to his July/29 update
things against 
- dunes may become larger and steeper farther to the south
- too many intermediate outcrop-science-stops will eventually "bleed" the batteries just before arrival at Victoria ...
- And last not least: A mechanical failure or other hazard can kill oppy any time, long before solar power depletion
But all in all I'm optimistic that we will make it.
Wouldn't the final decent into the majestic abyss of the Great Victoria Crater be a worthy end to one of the most phantastic interplanteray space missions ever ?
Nirgal,
P.S.: am I obsessed with Victoria ? yes, definitely 
Posted by: RNeuhaus Aug 5 2005, 09:47 PM
By the end of January, sol 695. Let us pray for a high Tau, good general health and also invite for more dust devils to fan on Oppy' solar panels. From here to January, the hope will swing many times. Some times is Ja and other is nein.
Rodolfo
Posted by: akuo Aug 5 2005, 09:57 PM
I go with ObsessedWithWorlds. I am sort of sick of this obsession with Victoria. Mission managers have previously identified the etched terrain as a scientific target. There is about as far to go to Victoria through the Etched terrain as Oppy has travelled south through the dunefields. I seem to remember that Etched terrain also has significant altitude changes, meaning that it might actually show more layers than Victoria. Victoria might be just a jumbled mess of rocks that are hard to reach.
People should appreciate more where we *are*.
Posted by: RNeuhaus Aug 5 2005, 10:12 PM
According to the MER Technical document, the IDD does not consume much energy as the communications and rolls. Besides, the outcrop on the Etched Erebus are very similar except to an interesting and strange thing. Hence the geology man will not be much interested to stop so often, "Ah, that is alike that I have seen previously."
Rodolfo
Posted by: garybeau Aug 5 2005, 10:24 PM
Sol 691
Posted by: Nirgal Aug 5 2005, 10:27 PM
when reading the posts in this board one can sense an overhelming appreciation
of this mission, of what has been reached so far and of the people at JPL enabling it ... almost every serious post is full of this sense of appreciation and gratefulness (that's why I love this forum above so many other discussion boards, BTW
I for myself am thankful for every single image, well knowing that it can be the last one every day and that every additional sol is a true gift for us ...
It's more than appreciated
But then there are of course also the dreams and the curiosity, the desire to reach even new horizon's, romantic legends like Ultreya and Victoria ... there is nothing wrong with this feelings: they have always been the driving force behind science and human exploration ...
Posted by: Cugel Aug 5 2005, 10:49 PM
Sol 721 at 4.15 PM local time, plus or minus 30 minutes.
(There is some margin in my calculations folks...)
Although I'm afraid a big dust storm will get us first...
Posted by: Redstone Aug 5 2005, 11:55 PM
Sol 747. (About 100 sols getting to/investigating/driving around Erebus, then 15 weeks to Victoria.) And I like Doug's definition: first sol with a picture of the dunes in the crater.
Posted by: Bubbinski Aug 6 2005, 06:59 AM
I'll go for Sol 696. Just a wild guess.
Posted by: dvandorn Aug 6 2005, 09:12 AM
)Have to watch out, though, or Oppy just might land on a Wicked Witch...
-the other Doug
Posted by: dvandorn Aug 6 2005, 09:14 AM
I'm in for Sol 717.
-the other Doug
Posted by: ilbasso Aug 6 2005, 12:56 PM
Sol 875 - limping on 4 good wheels.
Posted by: imran Aug 6 2005, 04:16 PM
Sol 688. I think we will discover that most of the bedrock here is similar what we have already seen before. This may speed up things just a tad bit.
Posted by: general Aug 6 2005, 04:32 PM
Just wondering: how high is the rim of Victoria Crater? What material is the ejecta blanket made of?
Posted by: SFJCody Aug 6 2005, 04:36 PM
722, while driving backwards.
Posted by: stewjack Aug 6 2005, 09:00 PM
I seem to remember that Etched terrain also has significant altitude changes,
meaning that it might actually show more layers than Victoria. ....
People should appreciate more where we *are*.
I go with akuo.
No predictions from me until we get to a point midway between Erebus and Victoria
that has been labeled "Hell of a View." It's all downhill from that location!
Jack
Posted by: Bill Harris Aug 6 2005, 09:12 PM
We get there when we get there. In the meantime, let's enjoy the journey...
--Bill
Posted by: akuo Aug 6 2005, 09:27 PM
People should appreciate more where we *are*.
when reading the posts in this board one can sense an overhelming appreciation
of this mission, of what has been reached so far and of the people at JPL enabling it ... almost every serious post is full of this sense of appreciation and gratefulness (that's why I love this forum above so many other discussion boards.
You misunderstand, the fact that the mission is appreciated is self-evident.
I was just looking for some appreciation for Etched terrain, where we have now arrived. Steve Squyres and Joy Crips identified the Etched terrain as the science target after Endurance, not Victoria. Etched terrain around Oppy now covers an area by far larger than Victoria. If you look at the high resolution image of Oppy's landing ellpise, you can see that Etched terrain is a very common type of terrain in Meridiani.
Now people seem to want to use this as just a bounding board to (yet) another crater. That Oppy should speed as fast as it can through this terrain, with minimal investigations. I disagree with this. I think Oppy should spend at least as much time investigating this terrain as was spent on Endurance.
Posted by: paxdan Aug 7 2005, 10:28 AM
777 - I think it depends on how interesting the etched terrain turns out to be.
So are the dune fields. However, once they have established the ground truth for the etched terrain. Confirmed what seems obvious (top layer all the way) with some hard data, i think that the possibililty of older layers being visible/accessible at victoria represent the deepest-time window into meridiani's history Oppy will get. That still remains one of the most important objectives of the mission.
.
Posted by: RNeuhaus Aug 7 2005, 05:42 PM
I am afraid that the MER project might be cut sooner, before than MER arrives at Victoria's Crater. See the last Squyres' last post on July 29,2005. He is commeting much about the MER's personnel as an introduction of what migh happen in the future. Visit at the http://athena.cornell.edu/news/mubss/
Rodolfo
Posted by: general Aug 7 2005, 05:56 PM
The MER Mission has been extended until September 2006, so no problem there.
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/solarsystem/mer-040505.html
As to the scientists and other personnel, I don't see anything in Dr Squyres report that would or could jeopardize the MER mission.
http://athena.cornell.edu/news/mubss/
Posted by: David Aug 7 2005, 10:11 PM
A question about Victoria: from the orbital images it seems that there is a wide belt around the bright bedrock at the crater rim where there are no "etched terrain" light-colored protrusions. This area seems very smooth and young, with only a couple of tiny craters dotting it, and no relief that I can see other than some color variations.
Is this another field of sand? Does it show dunes or other relief at better resolution? If so, why does this region not show the "etched" bedrock?
Or could could it be an area of smooth, exposed darker rock? or perhaps sand fused into something glassy as a result of the impact that created Victoria?
Posted by: avkillick Aug 8 2005, 10:50 PM
From different accounts, there will be no hurry to move past Erebus/etched terrain towards Victoria.
The scientists have been twiddling their collective thumbs while Oppy struggled southward though the uninteresting dunes.
So my prediction for arrival at Victoria is ~250 sols from now (sol 801).
Here's to a busy, interesting and fruitful science period.
Posted by: ilbasso Aug 9 2005, 12:46 AM
One thing which I hope bodes well for an earlier arrival at Victoria was a statement that Squyres made in his Science Friday radio interview. He said that since an electrical glitch might kill either rover at any time, the team is going to be pushing the rovers to the maximum extent possible to squeeze as much out of them as they can in whatever time they have left.
Posted by: CosmicRocker Aug 9 2005, 04:28 AM
I hope Opportunity does make it to Victoria, and beyond. But I have to cast my vote with ObsessedWithWorlds, akuo, and stewjack. I am expecting major science to be done in the Etched Terrain, and I am thoroughly excited and amazed that Opporunity is still relatively healthy and entering this new terrain. Although the rocks may be similar to the ones we landed in, it is likely that they are not the exact same layers. Even if the layers are the same, a lot could be learned from lateral variations in them.
Besides, we are just now seeing this etched terrain at it's edge. Let's see what it has to offer.
It is interesting to note however, that earlier Steve Squyres expressed doubts about reaching Victoria, but was more optimistic about the possibility in his most recent update. I'm keeping my fingers crossed, and am enjoying the exploration as it comes.
Posted by: MichaelT Aug 9 2005, 08:43 AM
Sol 748.
Posted by: paxdan Mar 17 2006, 11:32 AM
Thought i'd reopen this thread.
Of all the predictions made only three are still in play:
ILBASSO SOL 875
PAXDAN SOL 777
AVKILLIK SOL 801
I think it is time we made some new predictions, so lets hear them. When do you think that Oppy will reach Victoria.
Posted by: MahFL Mar 17 2006, 11:48 AM
I say Sol 842.
Posted by: SFJCody Mar 17 2006, 12:21 PM
New prediction: sol 897
Posted by: ilbasso Mar 17 2006, 02:10 PM
Thanks for reopening the discussion. I remembered that I had put in what seemed like an outrageously far-off guess...who knew then we would spend more than three months sitting in one place? A little birdie is telling me to stick to my estimate but I hope that it's wrong.
Posted by: general Mar 17 2006, 02:49 PM
Taking into account future retricted sols, nasty sand ripples, detours, computer glitches, jammed wheels and whatever else, I'd say around sol 1000 
Posted by: Marz Mar 17 2006, 03:37 PM
Well, I'm sure I was WAY off the mark from any earlier guesses I made on the arrival Sol. That was pre-Erebus, and I thought Oppy was going to drive by it with nary a wink (like she did to the smaller "ghost" craters).
So with that track record, I'm going to assume about an average of 20m/Sol towards Victoria (which seems a little aggressive?). So we've another ~2000m to go?
So place my virtual ante on Sol 887.
C'mon Oppy!
Posted by: stevo Mar 17 2006, 03:50 PM
I'll pick a nice round (square) number - sol 900.
Posted by: helvick Mar 17 2006, 04:26 PM
And I'll pick Sol 884 - should be the shortest Sol of winter more or less and deserves celebration
Posted by: Cugel Mar 17 2006, 04:47 PM
I play safe this time: never.
You see I can't lose this one:
if it gets there I win because it made it to Victoria...
if it doesn't , I win the million dollar price!
Posted by: alan Mar 17 2006, 04:51 PM
Sol 1036, Victoria panorama on Christmas.
Posted by: marswiggle Mar 17 2006, 04:57 PM
I don't remember anyone suggesting sol 888, so perhaps I can reserve it.
Wouldn't it also be a suitable sol number for some awesome sight, especially a layered one?
Posted by: mhoward Mar 17 2006, 05:03 PM
Wouldn't it also be a suitable sol number for some awesome sight, especially a layered one?
Hmmm.... Sol 820.
Posted by: tty Mar 17 2006, 08:59 PM
Is this another field of sand? Does it show dunes or other relief at better resolution? If so, why does this region not show the "etched" bedrock?
Or could could it be an area of smooth, exposed darker rock? or perhaps sand fused into something glassy as a result of the impact that created Victoria?
To me it looks like an ejecta blanket (surrounds the crater, lobate shape).
tty
Posted by: helvick Mar 17 2006, 09:37 PM
I've just been looking at the elevation profile from Ray Arvidson's MER MEX coordination slide (http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?showtopic=815&st=0&p=7727 ).
I appreciate that it is a very rough estimate based on MOLA data but by my calculations it puts the highest local point ("Hell of a view") within a band around Erebus so we should be heading "downslope" by now however I'm not noticing anything changing. I'm wondering if we're not actually going to see any noticable change at all and will never get that "Hell of a View" panorama.
Posted by: Bubbinski Mar 18 2006, 07:23 AM
Just a wild guess....sol 868.
Posted by: Tesheiner Mar 18 2006, 08:26 AM
This is my wild guess: sol 960.
Posted by: MaxSt Mar 18 2006, 08:29 AM
Sol 920
Posted by: Adam Mar 18 2006, 10:02 AM
Sol 980 is my guess.
Posted by: Bob Shaw Mar 18 2006, 01:50 PM
Sol 900
Bob Shaw
Posted by: Bill Harris Mar 18 2006, 02:36 PM
Eventually. She gets there when she gets there.
--Bill
Posted by: monty python Mar 19 2006, 08:34 AM
Sol 920. That's 100m per week, one more purgatory, and 20 days of science stops.
But then I didn't win the Deep Impact - guess impact crater size - either. 
Posted by: antoniseb Mar 19 2006, 01:31 PM
I'm guessing Sol 800 for When Oppy gets to the base of the rim. I have no prediction for how long it will take to climb the rim. I'm guessing that there will be no purgatories, and no lengthy science stops from here to there.
Posted by: bergadder Mar 19 2006, 02:27 PM
My wild guess, sol 915
Posted by: djellison Mar 19 2006, 02:34 PM
S1K
Doug
Posted by: ElkGroveDan Mar 19 2006, 03:40 PM
902
Posted by: remcook Mar 19 2006, 03:44 PM
random guess: 855
Posted by: Steve Mar 19 2006, 04:37 PM
Here's the group's collected judgement since the pool reopened on 17 March:
mean 903.9
sd 59.0
max 1036
75%ile 920
median 900
25%ile 876
min 800
Feeling wishy-washy , let me split the mean and median and claim SOL 902.
Sorry Dan, didn't mean to tread on your number. I'll take 904 instead.
Posted by: Bob Shaw Mar 19 2006, 05:24 PM
mean 903.9
sd 59.0
max 1036
75%ile 920
median 900
25%ile 876
min 800
Feeling wishy-washy
, let me split the mean and median and claim SOL 902. Sorry Dan, didn't mean to tread on your number. I'll take 904 instead.I don't think I've been the median at anything before, ever. That's worrying, that is.
Bob Shaw
Posted by: ElkGroveDan Mar 19 2006, 06:08 PM
Bob Shaw
I once met a happy medium. In fact she was the most cheerful fortune teller I ever met.
Posted by: chris Mar 20 2006, 09:32 AM
It seems not to be taken yet, so... 1000
Chris
Posted by: djellison Mar 20 2006, 09:45 AM
Chris
Sorry - that's mine with 'S1K' (like Y2k, but for Mars Rovers
)Doug
Posted by: chris Mar 20 2006, 10:05 AM
)Doug
Ok, 999 then
Chris
Posted by: antoniseb Mar 20 2006, 12:59 PM
)Hmmm. I'd read that as Sol 1024 for your prediction.
Posted by: Bob Shaw Mar 20 2006, 01:14 PM
Very good! Indeed, 11/10!
Bob Shaw
Posted by: paxdan Mar 20 2006, 01:59 PM
Doug
Bob Shaw
that's odd, i read it as the condition that Oppy would be in
Posted by: Ant103 Mar 20 2006, 04:02 PM
Hmmmm....
Sol 900!
Posted by: dvandorn Mar 20 2006, 04:59 PM
Chris
You took my number, Chris!
OK, I guess I have to back up one and say Sol 998. I have in my head that we'll make it to Victoria, and at the moment we begin to take the panorama of all panoramas, the S1K bug will wipe out the flash memory and that will be the end of that...
-the other Doug
Posted by: Bob Shaw Mar 20 2006, 07:46 PM
Sol 900!
You want we should share?
Bob Shaw
Posted by: imipak Mar 20 2006, 07:51 PM
Sol 987.
- because I like it's shape
Posted by: stevo Mar 21 2006, 03:26 PM
Bob Shaw
Works for me
Stephen
Posted by: Pertinax Mar 21 2006, 03:54 PM
Sol 1066
-- Pertinax
Posted by: ToSeek Mar 21 2006, 05:41 PM
Sol 875
Posted by: centsworth_II Mar 21 2006, 05:47 PM
866 (if it hasn't already been taken)
Ah! The chance to be immortalized in the UMSF Hall of Fame.
Posted by: imran Mar 21 2006, 06:24 PM
- because I like it's shape
Hmmm in that case, I'll go with Sol 876.
Posted by: mars loon Mar 22 2006, 02:11 AM
Sol 969
I like the symmetry
Posted by: RNeuhaus Mar 22 2006, 02:36 AM
Going an average of 15 m/sol for an distance (not straight) of around 2,000 from Payson to the Northern rim of Victoria. It is 150 sols from now (767 sol), then my bet would be 917, but, but, I feel that it is almost sure, Oppy will have another wheel breakdown and it will be dragging as an valiant until reaching Victoria, then I will add another 30 more days to 917 and the final result would be 947 sol, that is September 28, 2006.
Hope my favorite number has no matching!
Rodolfo
Posted by: hendric Mar 22 2006, 06:08 PM
Put me down for 969.
Posted by: MizarKey Mar 24 2006, 07:38 AM
I will guess Sol 933, I like that it will be 9/3.
Posted by: um3k Mar 24 2006, 03:51 PM
I say sol 1024, because I like powers of 2.
Posted by: Ant103 Mar 24 2006, 07:05 PM
In these circonstances, I modify my predict : Sol 1003, because we had pass Sol 103 since a long time ( in refer to my nikname).
Posted by: Myran Mar 24 2006, 09:50 PM
I am optimistic for once and end up with the 900's guys, so let my bet be for sol 911, and hope for no emergency calls from the rover.
Posted by: Rakhir Mar 24 2006, 10:01 PM
Sol 947 for me.
Posted by: nprev Mar 24 2006, 10:16 PM
Call me a hopeless optimist....Sol 1237!
Posted by: Reckless Mar 24 2006, 10:43 PM
I used the scientific method of measuring with my comb and it's exactly one comb length to victoria on the Sol 766 route map, I then measured back one comb length which took me to Sol 412 so I knew one comb =354 Sols and added it to 766 to get Sol 1124 how can it be wrong. 
Roy F
Posted by: marsman Mar 25 2006, 03:34 AM
Oppy experience indicates it will take longer than expected due to glitches, declining power, etc.
I say Sol 1024.
Posted by: centsworth_II Mar 25 2006, 06:57 AM
(pssst! Could someone tell hendric he picked the same sol as marsloon?)
Posted by: Rakhir Mar 25 2006, 04:15 PM
Rodolfo
Oops, I just noticed I took the same as Rodolfo.
So, I change for sol 948.
-- Rakhir
Posted by: monty python Mar 25 2006, 11:21 PM
But then I didn't win the Deep Impact - guess impact crater size - either.
Darn. MaxSt already took sol 920. I'll go for sol 921. But I think sol 920 is it!
Posted by: ilbasso Mar 26 2006, 03:14 AM
Hey, ToSeek - I picked Sol 875 last August...
Posted by: Decepticon Mar 26 2006, 09:15 AM
I noticed a lot of confusion on what sols where picked.
I went threw the posts and put them in order of pick.
Lots of doubles as you can see.
I got the first column for 1st pick. If I noticed any changes I added it to the second column.
????? <if you see the question mark, I was not sure on choice.
Feel free to change pick or add new ones.
I will change them as I get them.
PS Yes I was bored!
Posted by: Nirgal Mar 26 2006, 01:08 PM
My prediction: Sol 1111 (if it's not already taken)
I'm afraid that Oppy is going to experience a serious hardware/wheel breakdown (similar to what happened to Spirit) sometime before it reaches Victoria ... So she will have to cover the remaining distance after the breakdown in a slow/dragging 10-meters-per-day kind of fashion ... BUT we will get there finally
Posted by: Joffan Mar 27 2006, 03:53 AM
I'll go for 1014
(10-14 being a prowler report)
(unfortunately 10-24, assignment completed, has gone)
Posted by: atomoid Mar 27 2006, 09:03 AM
September 4th, 2006: Labor Day weekend press uninspired news media headline something like this:
"NASA's Mars Rover Opportunity perched at the edge of a two-footbawl-field-sized crater".
Posted by: Decepticon Mar 27 2006, 01:00 PM
Updated Mar 24th....
Picks...
Posted by: antoniseb Mar 27 2006, 01:49 PM
Picks...
I never picked 1024. My first and last pick was 800. Note that was the date getting to the edge of the ejecta blanket. I have no prediction about whether that material can be navigated by the rover.
Posted by: jamescanvin Mar 28 2006, 03:33 AM
I'll go 973
Posted by: hendric Mar 28 2006, 06:10 AM
OK, update mine to 1138, in honor of George Lucas' first movie: THX 1138
Posted by: Michael Capobianco Mar 28 2006, 07:28 AM
942 sounds good to me.
Posted by: climber Mar 28 2006, 11:32 AM
[/quote]
That' an easy one !
Take launch date of Spirit and Oppy 1006 and 0707; add them = 1707. Divide by 2 = 854
Difference between actual sol 773 and 854 is 854-773 = 81. Now, You just add it to 854....and
SOL 935 is my bet
Climber
Posted by: paxdan Mar 28 2006, 01:06 PM
Take launch date of Spirit and Oppy 1006 and 0707; add them = 1707. Divide by 2 = 854
Difference between actual sol 773 and 854 is 854-773 = 81. Now, You just add it to 854....and
SOL 935 is my bet
Climber
What kind of crazy math are you using to get 1006 and 0707 to add up to 1707?
Posted by: Decepticon Mar 28 2006, 01:21 PM
Update March 28..
Feel free to point out any mistakes I made. I will gladly change them.
(Note There are still a few with the same picks!) The list goes in order of who picked the number first.
Posted by: AndyG Mar 28 2006, 01:27 PM
Given that there's a couple of unfilled rows there, I'll have 890, please.
Andy
Posted by: climber Mar 28 2006, 01:40 PM
I deduced a few taxes without mentioning it. So, I stay with SOL 935
Posted by: David S. Mar 28 2006, 03:13 PM
I delurk just to take SOL 917 
Posted by: Michael Capobianco Mar 28 2006, 09:55 PM
In order of number of sols:
600 deglr6328
650 OWW
663 djellison
680 gpurcell
721 Cugel
747 Redstone
748 MichaelT
777 paxdan
800 antoniseb
801 avkillick
820 mhoward
842 MahFL
855 remcook
866 centsworth II
868 Bubbinski
875 ilbasso
875 ToSeek
876 imran
884 helvick
887 Marz
888 marswiggle
890 AndyG
891 garybeau
897 SFJCody
900 stevo
900 Bob Shaw
902 ElkGroveDan
904 Steve
911 Myran
915 bergadder
917 David S.
920 MaxSt
920 monty python
933 Mizarkey
934 atomoid
935 climber
942 Michael Capobianco
947 Rneuhaus
948 Rakhir
958 Airbag
960 Tesheiner
969 mars loon
973 jamescanvin
980 Adam
987 imipak
998 dvandorn
999 chris
1000 general
1003 Ant103
1013 Decepticon
1014 Joffan
1024 um3k
1024 marsman
1036 alan
1066 Pertinax
1111 Nirgal
1124 Reckless
1138 hendric
1237 nprev
Michaelc
Posted by: atomoid Mar 28 2006, 11:14 PM
So, if today March 28 is SOL 774, then Labor Day (Sept 4th) should be:
SOL 934
I'm thinking there will be two relatively short distractions but Oppy will make it to VC by this date to keep the press release date.
Posted by: Decepticon Mar 29 2006, 02:15 AM
Me 1013
Posted by: dvandorn Mar 29 2006, 02:55 AM
Hmmm... I thought we had all been given the option to re-select, since the long wait at Purgatory II had invalidated our former selection criteria. On that basis, I selected Sol 998.
Y'all please update your lists accordingly...
-the other Doug
Posted by: Airbag Mar 29 2006, 03:51 AM
I'll pick 958 since all my other carefully calculated and deliberated sols were all taken :-)
Airbag
Posted by: Decepticon Mar 29 2006, 06:55 AM
Thats not a problem, when I get home from work I can do it.
Or even Micheal can correct it.
Posted by: Michael Capobianco Mar 29 2006, 06:47 PM
Or even Michael can correct it.
Updated. Should we set a cut-off date for predictions?
In order of number of sols:
600 deglr6328
650 OWW
663 djellison
680 gpurcell
721 Cugel
747 Redstone
748 MichaelT
777 paxdan
800 antoniseb
801 avkillick
820 mhoward
842 MahFL
855 remcook
866 centsworth II
868 Bubbinski
875 ilbasso
875 ToSeek
876 imran
884 helvick
887 Marz
888 marswiggle
890 AndyG
891 garybeau
897 SFJCody
900 stevo
900 Bob Shaw
902 ElkGroveDan
904 Steve
911 Myran
915 bergadder
917 David S.
920 MaxSt
921 monty python
933 Mizarkey
934 atomoid
935 climber
940 Toma B
942 Michael Capobianco
947 Rneuhaus
948 Rakhir
958 Airbag
960 Tesheiner
969 mars loon
973 jamescanvin
980 Adam
987 imipak
998 dvandorn
999 chris
1000 general
1003 Ant103
1013 Decepticon
1014 Joffan
1024 um3k
1024 marsman
1036 alan
1066 Pertinax
1111 Nirgal
1124 Reckless
1138 hendric
1237 nprev
Michaelc
Posted by: Toma B Mar 29 2006, 06:55 PM
O.K. I will play too...
Write down SOL 940 as my bet...
Posted by: Bobby Mar 29 2006, 08:24 PM
Before I make my prediction. Is there a cut off date like Michael Capobianco said about making this prediction and what point at Victoria Crater do we have to reach? Will we have to be at the edge and see the dunes at the bottom?
Posted by: djellison Mar 29 2006, 08:27 PM
How about the first sol at which observations are made from whichever site number is used for the 'big pan' that will obviously be taken. It may be a few sols before that, but it would be an un-arguable point of reference.
Doug
Posted by: climber Mar 29 2006, 10:11 PM
Did someone calculate approx. what sol Oppy will be when MRO will start HiRise shots ?
Will help to bet which one will shot the first "VC Pan" first...
Posted by: helvick Mar 29 2006, 10:23 PM
Will help to bet which one will shot the first "VC Pan" first...
MRO will start it's science imaging (shortly) after the end of the Martian Solar conjuction on November 8th. That would be Sol 993 by my reckoning.
It would be quite neat if it all came together for an Image of Oppy arriving at the edge of Victoria on S1K.
Posted by: climber Mar 29 2006, 10:35 PM
A new director update has been issued on march 28th. They talked of "winter heaven" for both vehicules and said that VC will be Oppy's winter heaven! We are 130-150 sols away from official winter, correct ?
Posted by: helvick Mar 29 2006, 10:57 PM
The SH Winter solstice is on Sol 904 for Oppy ~ August 8th.
Our traditional view of winter as the time when axial tilt has our hemisphere leaning away from the sun doesn't have any major meaning for Opportunity since it is so close to the equator however Mars has a much more eccentric orbit than earth and there is a very pronounced seasonal effect as a result. Mid Winter Sol for Oppy is in my book arguably on Sol 884 when insolation is at a minimum. There is approximately 0.5% more insolation by Sol 904.
Posted by: RNeuhaus Apr 9 2006, 04:09 AM
The following matrix is a outlook arrival Victoria Crater update:
The distances were partial updated from JPL's web except to the soles 771-777
[font=Courier New]
Last sol drive 783.0
Transversed distance 532.0 meters 24.2%
Average speed 21.3 m/sol
Remaining distance 1,668.0 meters
Outlook arrival date 861.4 Sol ---> Jun 23
Rodolfo
Posted by: ElkGroveDan Apr 9 2006, 04:19 AM
I think that was mid-winter haven, not heaven. It sounds the same but the circumstances are quite different. Sort of like a notion of water verses an ocean of water.
Posted by: antoniseb Apr 9 2006, 02:24 PM
Well my overly optimistic guess that they'd average 100 meters/day in this run are proving to have been over the top. My estimate for Sol 800 at the ejecta blanket is wrong. currently, we're about 1500 meters from the ejecta blanket, a little more with our zig-zag path, and if we maintain a pace of 30 meters/Sol (still a little optimistic), we'll get there around Sol 840. That's my new guess.
Posted by: RNeuhaus Apr 9 2006, 02:55 PM
No more new bets.
Except if there is a clamour popular to change a new rules. I am not a judge but as another player. Up to now, there is a list of 66 members doing a bet. Up to know, there is 15 members out of bet.
Victoria_Crater_bets.xls ( 15.5K )
: 361Recently corrected (MaxSt, antoniesb)
Rodolfo
Posted by: antoniseb Apr 9 2006, 03:49 PM
Fair enough. Consider this a concession speach from the person with the earliest guess. Good luck to whoever is closest to 840.
Posted by: imran Apr 9 2006, 07:12 PM
Well look on the bright side. At least you weren't one of those to pick 1000+.
I think you will be closer than what most people think.
Posted by: MaxSt Apr 9 2006, 07:23 PM
Actually, my bet is 920. And monty python's is 921.
Posted by: Nirgal Apr 9 2006, 08:19 PM
I'm one of the "1000++er"s. But, to be honest, this bet is only kind of a "hedge", because in secret, of course I'm hoping for a smooth ride with an much earlier arrival date ... But, if we'll go into trouble again and another purgatory-style delay, then, well at least I'll have the consolation of possibly winning the bet
Posted by: RNeuhaus Apr 9 2006, 09:23 PM
Already corrected.
Rodolfo
Posted by: antoniseb Apr 9 2006, 09:50 PM
I took a look at the document, and several people seemed to be eliminated (your fifteen) that shouldn't be yet.
Only people up to about Sol 785 should be officially eliminated now by my guessing. You've knocked people off through about 865.
Posted by: RNeuhaus Apr 9 2006, 11:51 PM
Only people up to about Sol 785 should be officially eliminated now by my guessing. You've knocked people off through about 865.
Oouuch
, the numbers have crossed. I recognized my error and I already corrected them. Now , the numbers of members who must pack their bag to go home has lowered from 15 to 10 only by now. But, many more might be already preparing their bags since now, the Oppy has already advanced 23.2 % of a 2,200 meters in a straight line between rims of Erebus and Victoria craters since the Sol 758 in which Oppy left Erebus rim (a funny and strange climbing over a small trench). Up to know, Oppy traveled 511 meters in 24 soles (782-758). So, it will need 79 soles to arrive at the Victoria's rim with the present pace, however, it would be increased with the future new Oppy's aches. Hence, many of members with bet number lower than 861 are crossing their fingers and shouting at Oppy: Hurry up right now!!!
Have a fun time!
Rodolfo
Posted by: dot.dk Apr 10 2006, 12:14 AM
If we are lucky the last ~500 meters before the rim of Victoria will be as smooth terrain as the terrain around Endurance. That way those 500 meters could be covered in 3 days
And btw. RNeuhaus it is the current pace not peace
Go Oppy Go
Posted by: aldo12xu Apr 12 2006, 04:02 PM
OK, my guess is Victoria by sol 895. That's based on how far it's traveled from Erebus up to sol 787 with 20 or 30 sols of messing around.
Posted by: Michael Capobianco Apr 12 2006, 04:24 PM
Should we start putting asterisks by new pool entries?
Michael
Posted by: centsworth_II Apr 12 2006, 05:35 PM
How about getting some people who made a prediction before Erebus back into the game? Add the number of sols Opportunity was motionless due to working out the joint problem to their predictions.
Posted by: climber Apr 12 2006, 06:38 PM
I don't mind...as long as they don't end up too close to the actual "best" estimation
Posted by: RNeuhaus Apr 12 2006, 07:00 PM
For me it is fine to have a third round of bet, just to have a fun time.
The deadline of bet might end by next week, April 19 and then no more round of bets? The ones which didn't peform the third round of bet, the bet will take from the 2nd round of bet.
Now Oppy is still about 1700 meters or about 24% away in straight line from VC. Looks like in good health with 6 strong wheel motors and 5 strong actuators motors and one actuator somewhat lazy (front-right?).....only by now.... About the advance surface conditions, it is possible that the Oppy will have to cross lots of etched terrain and somewhat taller dunes before starting to slid down into a smoother land toward the VC by about 320 meters of smooth sand?
Any toughts?
Rodolfo
Posted by: climber Apr 12 2006, 07:33 PM
The deadline of bet might end by next week, April 19 and then no more round of bets? The ones which didn't peform the third round of bet, the bet will take from the 2nd round of bet.
Now Oppy is still about 1700 meters or about 24% away in straight line from VC. Looks like in good health with 6 strong wheel motors and 5 strong actuators motors and one actuator somewhat lazy (front-right?).....only by now.... About the advance surface conditions, it is possible that the Oppy will have to cross lots of etched terrain and somewhat taller dunes before starting to slid down into a smoother land toward the VC by about 320 meters of smooth sand?
Any toughts?
Rodolfo
On topic called "VC on the Horizon" Doug quoted : It takes about 40 days for Sol's and Days to lag by 1 full day (i.e. Sol 40 = Day 41). Thus - it's a cycle of 40 days, for which I'd guess each rover is restricted for about 10-14 sols (although I'll ask Jim next QnA time),
This means that we have the equivalent of 33-35 driving Sols possibilities in a 40 Sol period. There are 2 days for week-end every 7 sols (yes, even on Mars) so we loose another 11.5 sols/40 sols : down to 25. If we keep going at 21 m/sol (your last status) the distance covered will be 525m/40 Sol period so with 3 more cycles, we'll be 1575m closer. Add another 7 sols i.e. 147m, you're at Victoria in 127 more sols from now!
Sol arrival will be 935...and that's already my bet!
Why do you want to go for a 3rd round? Everybody know that I'm gona win.
OK, OK let do it for fun (I'm already having fun doing this calculations).
So, I say 935 for change....and I'll blame Doug if I'm wrong ... and I'll (may be) share the price if I won.
Climber
Posted by: bergadder Apr 13 2006, 12:07 AM
What event marks the arrival, first image of the floor of Victoria?
Posted by: ElkGroveDan Apr 13 2006, 01:24 AM
No. Sunrise on Sol 902.
Posted by: deglr6328 Apr 13 2006, 04:50 AM
I'm going to stick with my original wager of sol 600. Oppy has been travelling so quickly lately that soon she will surely enter a time warp and arrive at the crater before she left.
Posted by: djellison Apr 13 2006, 06:28 AM
My suggestion was the first sol at which an image is taken at the site number and drive number at which the first full pancam panorama of VC is taken. When we stop to have a 'good look' - we have arrived. It doesnt have to be that first image OF the panorama - just the first image taken from the same place. (usually a Navcam pan a day or two earlier)
Doug
Posted by: RNeuhaus Apr 14 2006, 08:58 PM
Last sol drive : 789
Soles since start : 31
Transversed distance : 520 meters (previous was 511 meters)
Average speed : 16.8 m/sol (slowed down from 21.3 m/sol)
Remaining distance : 1680 meters
Outlook arrival date: 889.2 sol ---> Jul 21 (Delayed from sol 886 to 889 sol)
In general Oppy has slowed down due to past restricted sol and also a pause for an remote sense integration.
Rodolfo
Posted by: nabob Apr 15 2006, 04:07 AM
Never. It seems like a logical bet.
Hoping I will soon be wrong,
A Nattering Nabob of Negativity.
Posted by: RNeuhaus Apr 19 2006, 01:39 PM
Sol 794 update
Soles since start 36.0
Transversed distance 674.0 meters 30.6%
Average speed 18.7 m/sol
Remaining distance 1526.0 meters
___________________________________________________
Outlook arrival date 875.5 Sol ---> July 8
___________________________________________________
Rodolfo
Posted by: Cugel Apr 19 2006, 02:48 PM
Knowing those overly sentimental Yankees they are probably targeting a July 4 arrival.
Posted by: AndyG Apr 19 2006, 02:53 PM
Ah, but with the Martian year being just about twice an Earth year, which local July 4th are they going to select? The first one or the one the day after?
Andy (96 posts and still a newbie)
Posted by: ustrax Apr 19 2006, 03:25 PM
July, the 7th.
Because it is my birthday and I want a nice, deep gift...
Don't know what sol it is...
Posted by: Bob Shaw Apr 19 2006, 03:47 PM
Because it is my birthday and I want a nice, deep gift...
Don't know what sol it is...
Ustrax:
No!
Look what you did with the last Abyss we let you play with - you lost, it, didn't you? No more deep holes in the ground for *you*! You're probably expecting us to believe that 'somebody else must have left it there' when poor little Opportunity falls in! Ha!
Bob Shaw
Posted by: SigurRosFan Apr 19 2006, 04:50 PM
Soles since start 36.0
Transversed distance 674.0 meters 30.6%
Average speed 18.7 m/sol
Remaining distance 1526.0 meters
___________________________________________________
Outlook arrival date 875.5 Sol ---> July 8
___________________________________________________
Rodolfo
What i'm seeing? Is it right?
>> 674 meters in 36 sols??
Posted by: ToSeek Apr 19 2006, 04:53 PM
Soles since start 36.0
Transversed distance 674.0 meters 30.6%
Average speed 18.7 m/sol
Remaining distance 1526.0 meters
___________________________________________________
Outlook arrival date 875.5 Sol ---> July 8
___________________________________________________
Rodolfo
I'm right on the money (for now)!
Posted by: Tesheiner Apr 19 2006, 05:54 PM
>> 674 meters in 36 sols??
Think so.
A straight line from sol 758 position to sol 794's on my route map measures 698m.
Posted by: RNeuhaus Apr 19 2006, 07:03 PM
>> 674 meters in 36 sols??
The starting sol was 758 when Oppy left the Erebus "highest" rim (very eroded, indeed it is about one meter height).
About the distance. Two last week are estimated until the official JPL post the distance numbers. Initially, I estimated that the straight line distance between the Erebus and Victoria's rim was 2,200 meters as a reference. The distance was measured with the help of the scale distance on the picture.
However, the transversed distance will be longer than the straight line by some tenths meters since the Oppy will sometime transverse diagonally between ripples during its trip toward to Victoria crater.
Rodolfo
Posted by: Nirgal Apr 19 2006, 07:35 PM
Because it is my birthday and I want a nice, deep gift...
Don't know what sol it is...
nice to see you back, Ustrax !
and keep dreaming your dreams and legends. don't be discouraged by your failed Ultreya Abyss prediction
It has always been the uncertain dreams & legends that drive all the real great discoveries ...Let's think about Columbus who dreamed his dream of circling the globe to reach India: We owe the discovery of a whole new continent to this dream
Posted by: Tesheiner Apr 19 2006, 08:03 PM
Not only that but, iirc, the distances posted on the status reports take into account all kind of manouvers e.g. end-of-drive turns, back and forward moves to avoid obstacles.
Because it is my birthday and I want a nice, deep gift...
Victoria... Abyss?
Posted by: stevo Apr 19 2006, 08:11 PM
Soles since start 36.0
Transversed distance 674.0 meters 30.6%
Average speed 18.7 m/sol
Remaining distance 1526.0 meters
___________________________________________________
Outlook arrival date 875.5 Sol ---> July 8
___________________________________________________
Rodolfo
875 ? Uh oh. Hey, Oppie, look at the nice outcrop in the foreground;
http://qt.exploratorium.edu/mars/opportunity/pancam/2006-04-17/1P198500566EFF68VNP2389R2M1.JPG
that's got to be worth going back to look at for, oh I don't know, 25 sols or so
Steve
Posted by: ElkGroveDan Apr 19 2006, 10:07 PM
http://qt.exploratorium.edu/mars/opportunity/pancam/2006-04-17/1P198500566EFF68VNP2389R2M1.JPG
that's got to be worth going back to look at for, oh I don't know, 25 sols or so
Steve
Actually 27 sols would be much better.
Posted by: bergadder Apr 20 2006, 02:11 AM
Looking at Tesheiner's Route Map and the 1526 meters or so still to travel, we have a good idea what its like to travel over the etched area of the route, but we really don't know what awaits us, what 400 m out from VC when we cross over from the "known" soil to the unknown on the "ramp" (not sure if its a ramp) up to the edge of VC.
Posted by: RNeuhaus Apr 20 2006, 02:30 AM
Victoria... Abyss?
Yes, I am aware of this. Oppy has been driving fairly very straight with very fews turns around or any kind avoidance maneouver. So, the miss-calculated distance would be small. Not yet I am able to measure the distance with pixels/meters. Not yet I have mastered it. Anyway, I will try it in sometime soon.
Rodolfo
Posted by: Tesheiner Apr 20 2006, 10:36 AM
Oh, Oppy doesn't need to wait until the last 400m to find "unknown" terrain.
Following the future (hypotetical) path on my route map there is a section of bigger dunes starting at some 160m SSE from sol 794 position and ending (?) at a big outcrop 420m SSE again from the current position.
|
WRT the ejecta blanket (those last 400m up to the crater rim) I *think* (read "hope") that terrain will be similar to Endurance surroundings.
Edit: Changed picture to include what I think is the local high point.
Posted by: Bill Harris Apr 20 2006, 12:37 PM
I suspect that the larger ripples are due to orographic effects-- we've just crossed the topographic high and are descending to Victoria and we get changes in the wind downwind of that high area. We also have a darker tone of this area, which implies a change in composition, which may or may not be due to the change in the wind. Oppy needs to get to that "mini-Erebus highway" and get a close look at the bedrock.
--Bill
Posted by: Tesheiner Apr 20 2006, 12:47 PM
Similar thing as when approaching Erebus rim (before the detour); the dunes were getting bigger due to the slope change created at the rim. Will we see another Elephant dune, or even bigger one?
About crossing a high point, I did some quick calculations based on the vertical profiles posted some time ago (here: http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=1443&view=findpost&p=48507) and the local high point seems to be still ~100m ahead.
See previous edited post.
Posted by: ustrax Apr 20 2006, 01:02 PM
No!
Look what you did with the last Abyss we let you play with - you lost, it, didn't you? No more deep holes in the ground for *you*! You're probably expecting us to believe that 'somebody else must have left it there' when poor little Opportunity falls in! Ha!
Bob Shaw
Let me have it! Let me have it!
I promise I'll keep this one safe...
Pleeaase!...
Nirgal, I never felt discouraged by Ultreya, it's abyss, or the inexistence of one...
Posted by: stevo Apr 20 2006, 03:30 PM
--Bill
I hope you're correct, the "bigger dune" patches on either side of Tesheiner's proposed blue route look vaguely like ancient buried craters to me. In the absence of outcrops, I am concerned that the going might be treacherous even between the ripples.
I'm probably wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Oppy just keep trending east to avoid this area entirely.
Steve
Posted by: Tesheiner Apr 20 2006, 03:45 PM
Me too.
But that eastern route isn't free of tricks. First of all, it would mean a *lot* of ripple crossings with the potential consequence of being on another purgatory-like situation. Second, they would find another "big dunes" area when turning south again after the eastern detour.
Posted by: lyford Apr 20 2006, 04:06 PM
It's funny how even reaching Victoria seemed like wishful thinking, and now I am a little upset at the prospect that Victoria Abyss will be Opportunity's Grand Finale. But what an ending!
"We'll always have Ultreya...."
Posted by: RNeuhaus Apr 20 2006, 06:47 PM
I'm probably wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Oppy just keep trending east to avoid this area entirely.
Steve
I see another path, which is continuing the same straight line and few ripples crossing due to the ripple forks shape up to the latitude of VC and then turn to East. That way is easier but the MER team might be interested to visit at determined sites for geology science investigations purposes.
Rodolfo
Posted by: Marz Apr 21 2006, 03:00 PM
Doug, make 'em stop! (There's gotta be a rule about this somewhere...)
Posted by: RNeuhaus Apr 27 2006, 02:28 AM
New update at sol 800. Oppy has delayed 1 day since the sol 794.
Last sol drive 800
Soles since start 42
Transversed distance 776 meters 32.1%
Average speed 18.5 m/sol
Remaining distance 1424 meters
___________________________________________________
Outlook arrival date 877.1 Sol ---> July 9
___________________________________________________
Rodolfo
Posted by: ustrax Apr 27 2006, 10:36 AM
Posted by: RNeuhaus Apr 27 2006, 05:09 PM
An article from today's Space.com: http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/060425_rovers_update.html
"It is full speed ahead to the south," Squyres reported. The power situation for Opportunity is much better than it is for Spirit, largely because this rover at Meridiani Planum is much closer to the equator. The robot can be driven an hour and a half or two hours each day, he said.
Oppy has the average speed of 5 - 10 cms / sec, per sol, Oppy can advance from the minimum: 9 (5cms/sec for 30 minutes) meters to maximum: 72 meters (10 cms/sec for 2 hours). The average would be 36 meters/sol.
"We’re also really getting the hang of driving in this terrain," Squyres added. At present, Opportunity is less than 5,000 feet (1.5 kilometers) from the rim of Victoria Crater, and making good progress daily. This feature is an enormous depression, measuring a half-mile (800 meters) in diameter.
Rodolfo
Posted by: RNeuhaus May 2 2006, 05:03 PM
New update. The Opportunity advancement toward VC has slowed a little comparing to the last update at Sol 800.
Last sol drive 803
Soles since start 45
Transversed distance 795 meters 36.1%
Average speed 17.7 m/sol
Remaining distance 1405 meters
___________________________________________________
Outlook arrival date: 882.5 --> July 14
Rodolfo
Posted by: helvick May 2 2006, 06:43 PM
Only a Sol and a half from the ideal date.
Posted by: RNeuhaus May 2 2006, 06:58 PM
I think that Oppy has arrived another very interesting zone and as everybody are shouting to smell roses (gravel) and visiting one of the biggest sand ripples on the way to the VC. Then, the transverse will be slowing down even further but after passing that zone, the speed average/sol will pick up again when Oppy approaches the relatively flat eject rim zone of VC. Speeding up and down! it is a fun bet
Rodolfo
Posted by: ustrax May 9 2006, 11:08 AM
Did anyone picked up 873?...
Posted by: Michael Capobianco May 9 2006, 02:06 PM
In order of number of sols:
600 deglr6328
650 OWW
663 djellison
680 gpurcell
721 Cugel
747 Redstone
748 MichaelT
777 paxdan
800 antoniseb
801 avkillick
820 mhoward
842 MahFL
855 remcook
866 centsworth II
868 Bubbinski
875 ilbasso
875 ToSeek
876 imran
884 helvick
887 Marz
888 marswiggle
890 AndyG
891 garybeau
897 SFJCody
900 stevo
900 Bob Shaw
902 ElkGroveDan
904 Steve
911 Myran
915 bergadder
917 David S.
920 MaxSt
921 monty python
933 Mizarkey
934 atomoid
935 climber
940 Toma B
942 Michael Capobianco
947 Rneuhaus
948 Rakhir
958 Airbag
960 Tesheiner
969 mars loon
973 jamescanvin
980 Adam
987 imipak
998 dvandorn
999 chris
1000 general
1003 Ant103
1013 Decepticon
1014 Joffan
1024 um3k
1024 marsman
1036 alan
1066 Pertinax
1111 Nirgal
1124 Reckless
1138 hendric
1237 nprev
Michael
Posted by: ustrax May 9 2006, 02:09 PM
...
866 centsworth II
868 Bubbinski
873 ustrax
875 ilbasso
875 ToSeek
...
Michael
Thank you Michael!
Posted by: dilo May 9 2006, 06:09 PM
If Ustrax made a pull, then is not late for me!
Here my projection: Sol 927
Posted by: Bob Shaw May 9 2006, 06:11 PM
Here my projection: Sol 927
Marco:
No, I think Phil is still ahead!
Bob Shaw
Posted by: RNeuhaus May 10 2006, 03:41 PM
Oppy has advanced 43.8% of way between Payson and VC. The following matrix is the new update for the sol 814.
Last sol drive 814
Soles since start 45
Transversed distance 963 meters 43.8%
Average speed 17.2 m/sol
Remaining distance 1237 meters
___________________________________________________
Outlook arrival date: 885.9 --> July 17
Analysis. The Oppy has lowerd a bit its daily average speed from 17.7
to 17.2 and the outlook VC arrival as pushed a little up to July 17 from
July 14.
___________________________________________________
(*) Claim, the numbers does not guarantee to be precise but a fondy
estimate.
(**) Phil, there is much way to jog, keep up your health fitness!
Rodolfo
Posted by: Joffan May 10 2006, 04:34 PM
36 Mars sols is about 37 Earth days, right, so I imagine we will have another period or two of restricted sols before reaching Victoria, assuming no stops (like Corner Crater). Not that I'm close to being right, and I hope I'm way too pessimistic at Sol 1014!
Posted by: hansvi May 10 2006, 09:15 PM
If they play it tactical, they'll be sitting on the rim on the day the next mission extension gets approved. I Don't know when that will be, but having to make a guess, Sol 950 seems reasonable.
Posted by: RNeuhaus May 18 2006, 04:38 PM
New update from Sol 821
Last sol drive 821
Soles since start 63
Transversed distance 1,120 meters 50.9%
Average speed 17.8 m/sol
Remaining distance 1,080 meters
___________________________________________________
Outlook arrival date: 881.8 --> July 13
Oppy is rushing even faster than previous week. Lowered four days of its previous outlook arrival. Now, Oppy is around the half distance between Erebus Payson and VC.
Keep trucking!
Rodolfo
Posted by: imipak May 20 2006, 12:16 AM
Some news at space.com;
http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/060519_rovers_update.htm
...nothing especially new, but this is an interesting comment from Mr Squyres, on Victoria:
[snip]
“We are closing in ... we’ve got only about a kilometer to go now,” said Steve Squyres [...] “Feel free to work out your own guess at an estimated time of arrival based on our recent progress…but I’m not making any predictions! Mars has fooled us too many times before,"...
[/snip]
So Steve sits out this sweepstake, but perhaps he (or JPL) should be pencilled in as honorary mascot for "Team FarSide" over on the other threads
Posted by: djellison May 20 2006, 07:11 AM
LOL - no fool he
Doug
Posted by: jvandriel May 21 2006, 02:08 PM
Arrival on the 10th of July.
my birthday.
jvandriel
Posted by: Myran May 21 2006, 02:50 PM
I wondered before and now they seemingly going even faster, could it be that they be aiming for one arrival at Victoria on July 4?
Posted by: BrianL May 21 2006, 03:00 PM
Well, why not? They've missed their chance at the perfect arrival day.
Tomorrow is Victoria Day here in Canada.
Brian
Posted by: ustrax May 22 2006, 08:17 AM
my birthday.
jvandriel
Mine's on the 7th...
Posted by: ilbasso May 25 2006, 02:58 AM
Can't recall - did we ever precisely define what "arrival" means? Does it mean sitting on the ledge? How close to the edge? What Sol shall we use as a benchmark to define "arrival" at Endurance, so that we can use similar criteria for arrival at Victoria?
Posted by: jamescanvin May 25 2006, 03:32 AM
Doug came up with a good one http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=1228&view=findpost&p=48274
Posted by: dilo May 25 2006, 05:04 AM
Mine is 9th!!!
Posted by: ustrax May 25 2006, 08:03 AM
So...Who got the 8th?...
And the rest of you guys? What's your birthday? (Maybe it is better to do this on a Chit Chat new topic...)
Toma B was born on the 1st of July...Is this a crab conspiracy?!!!
Doug got December's 23rd...
Posted by: Bob Shaw May 25 2006, 12:29 PM
I think we should bow to the wisdom of the actual MER drivers - they'll announce 'arrival day', never fear!
Bob Shaw
Posted by: ElkGroveDan May 25 2006, 02:36 PM
I have two suggestions,
a ) first image of any portion of the dunes inside Victoria or
b ) first contact with any exposed pavement along the rim (since it's clear there is none on the "slopes")
Posted by: centsworth_II May 25 2006, 03:03 PM
b ) first contact with any exposed pavement along the rim
"a" is a great idea, "b" is terrible. IMHO
Posted by: alan May 25 2006, 03:18 PM
And the rest of you guys? What's your birthday? (Maybe it is better to do this on a Chit Chat new topic...)
Toma B was born on the 1st of July...Is this a crab conspiracy?!!!
Doug got December's 23rd...
mines July 29th, someone at JPL was forcasting arrival in late July
Posted by: ustrax May 25 2006, 03:28 PM
a ) first image of any portion of the dunes inside Victoria or
b ) first contact with any exposed pavement along the rim (since it's clear there is none on the "slopes")
Well...I believe this was the day we celebrated the arrival at Endurance...What a great day that was!
:http://qt.exploratorium.edu/mars/opportunity/navcam/2004-04-30/
Edited: First Forward-HazCam picture could be another hypothesis...This was the first one for Endurance:
http://qt.exploratorium.edu/mars/opportunity/forward_hazcam/2004-04-30/1F136618833EFF1923P1201L0M1.JPG
We can start filling the gaps in July...We've got 1, 7, 9, 10, 29...That will be a full party month...
And let's hope someone will have a large and deep reason for celebrations...
Posted by: Oersted May 25 2006, 04:42 PM
I'd say that first pic of part of the bottom dune is the best way to define it too. (And I'm not in the running, so that's an objective voice!)
Posted by: RNeuhaus May 25 2006, 04:59 PM
Ilbasso: Good question!
I think that the arrival date of VC means that Oppy is sitting on the edge of rim, let say, within a prudent
distance to avoid in rolling or slipping down into the bottom of the crater.Who else will concur it?
Rodolfo
Redited: I would rather vote for sitting on the edge of rim instead of a picture of VC's bottom. Picture will come, maybe, some soles later than sitting on the edge of rim.
Posted by: centsworth_II May 25 2006, 07:17 PM
So we use the sol Opportunity arrived at the location from which the defining picture was taken, even if the picture is posted a day or two later.
Posted by: Nix May 25 2006, 07:36 PM
sol 880 -1st day of first panorama- , 'bout time I joined in
Nico
Posted by: centsworth_II May 25 2006, 07:41 PM
I like the arrival date at the spot from which the first picture showing part of the bottom ripples is taken. They may spend a week or two jockying around after this time before beginning a panorama.
Posted by: Tesheiner May 25 2006, 08:19 PM
I like this idea too, but I see also a problem given the size of VC.
Victoria is not like Endurance or Eagle. On those ones (E&E), the rover could be one day seeing nothing and on the next one, after just a 20m drive, see the whole or most part of the bottom. I don't think this will be the case with Victoria; we will start with just a glimpse of some features that may be dunes at the bottom and only after much more then 20m (think about 100m) we'll realise about the real truth.
There may be some (driving) sols of uncertainty when calling an "arrival day".
... but then we can start a pool to decide if something seen on sol X or X-1 was really part of the bottom dunes or not.
Posted by: Joffan May 25 2006, 10:28 PM
I think we've got to be able to see the whole of the VC dune field. Just glimpsing a few dunes through a dip in the crater rim isn't enough to say we've arrived. The critical section should be the near edge of the dune field.
And yes, of course it's the sol that Opportunity arrives at that spot, not when the pictures are taken that's key.
Posted by: centsworth_II May 26 2006, 01:36 AM
Also, the bottom ripples may not confine themselves the a nice circular area at the base of the crater. Remember even at the much smaller Endurance, there were a few which reached up the side toward Opportunity's entry point. In fact, Opportunity made it to within a few feet of them before it got to dangerous. But I think all would agree that those high-reaching ripples were part of the overall field at the base. So even a ripple not at the bottom, but still part of the overall ripple field could be counted.
First glimpse will be much easier to judge, and more indicative of having arrived. Depending on the topography around the rim, it may be a long time after arrival before the entire bottom can be seen.
Posted by: Castor May 26 2006, 07:50 AM
Rodolfo,
Do you have an update on the possible arrival date at VC based on the rate of driving over the last few sols? Oppy is not allowed to arrive at VC between 6th and 22nd of July as I'm away on holiday with no access to a computer..... Please arrange a date either side of this...
Castor
Posted by: Myran May 26 2006, 10:41 AM
I agree that seeing into the crater would define arrvial, and saying so before any of those with realy high Sol numbers starts to argue that 'arrival' should be defined as entering the crater itself! Opps, I didnt say that!
Posted by: climber May 28 2006, 09:18 PM
What about the Official arrival date that will be posted by the JPL?
Did we have such a date for Endurance?
Posted by: RNeuhaus May 30 2006, 10:50 PM
Update at sol 833
Last sol drive 833
Soles since start 75
Transversed distance 1,264 meters 57.5%
Average speed 16.9 m/sol
Remaining distance 936 meters
___________________________________________________
Outlook arrival date: 888.5 --> July 20
The outlook arrival date has extended from July 13.
It look that Oppy will mis 7 soles due to the recent sandtrap. So, the next time that Oppy starts to drive, the Sol would be marked at around 895.
http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=1228&view=findpost&p=54759
Rodolfo
Posted by: jvandriel Jun 1 2006, 09:09 AM
Opportunity stuck again.
There goes my birthday present.
Arrival at Victoria crater on the 10th of July.
jvandriel
Posted by: Bobby Jun 5 2006, 12:34 AM
Even know I didn't make a prediction in this thread to when Oppy would make it to Victoria.
Due to Oppy being stuck again and we all hope she does get out. Should we start a new pool up again called
Arrival at Victoria after Purgotory 2?
Start the Pool after Oppy gets out of her sticky situation?
Posted by: ElkGroveDan Jun 5 2006, 12:58 AM
Arrival at Victoria after Purgotory 2?
No way. If we don't spend too much time at Corner Crater, we're looking good for 902 (assuming she's out in the next couple days.)
No sirreeee....my guess took into account stuff like this (it was a gut feeling).
Posted by: RNeuhaus Jun 5 2006, 01:02 AM
Due to Oppy being stuck again and we all hope she does get out. Should we start a new pool up again called
Arrival at Victoria after Purgotory 2?
Start the Pool after Oppy gets out of her sticky situation?
A new round game that would go to be infinite. What will happen if Oppy get a new Purgatory 3? One no never know by sure but surely if it happens again, it would be a small and easy to be pulled out. So we are going to have many round of bets. Up to now, we are runing two round of betting: The oldest was of the LAST YEAR and it was reseted by a new round of bet a few weeks ago.
Rodolfo
Posted by: Tesheiner Jun 5 2006, 07:08 AM
Just for comparision: you make your bet on a horse race and then one of them simply falls down on the sand. Should we say, "wait a minute, let's make new bets"?
No.
Posted by: djellison Jun 5 2006, 07:43 AM
Everyone should have thought of the chances of another purgatory dune thing....that's why I said ( but it didn't really get noticed some months back ) S1k - because that seemed sensible if you included another 'get stuck' moment
Doug
Posted by: climber Jun 5 2006, 09:00 AM
I agree : arrival date and Beacon positions bets are both over.
Posted by: Bob Shaw Jun 5 2006, 11:35 AM
Doug
Doug:
Oh, I don't know - Sol 900 is still possible...
..and is S1k Sol 1,000 or Sol 1024? Sly devil, two for the price of one!
Bob Shaw
Posted by: Rakhir Jun 6 2006, 06:11 AM
I agree as well.
It would be unfair for those who anticipated for likely issues during this trek (sandtraps, Oppy technical glitches, Odyssey is safe mode...).
I think everyone in this forum is aware that the road to Victoria is not an easy ride.
Lets wait before all the bets become clearly unreacheable before placing new ones (I hope we will not have to wait for that).
-- Rakhir
Posted by: Bobby Jun 6 2006, 07:04 AM
Yes it was silly of me to ask for another vote or poll up for when Oppy gets to Victoria.
Please forgive me
Posted by: RNeuhaus Jun 8 2006, 02:09 AM
To remaind about the bet list.
Last sol drive 843 (today)
Soles since start 85
Transversed distance 1,265 meters 57.5%
Average speed 14.9 m/sol
Remaining distance 935 meters
___________________________________________________
Outlook arrival date: 905.8 Sol --> Aug 6 at 12 m/sol speed
Outlook arrival date: 901.4 Sol --> Aug 2 at 16 m/sol speed
After Oppy has escaped from the Bay of Lamentation, Oppy has lost 10 soles trying to kick as hard backwards plus 3 soles of other activities. So the the outlook of arrival date has extended from 888 to 901 with the most probably speed peace of 16 meters/sol from the last sol drive update: 833.
Then, ones who has bet before than Sol 901 are ones who are targed as "out" will line up for another bet if Oppy will fall again in a "Pond of Pray". The other group with the label "maybe" are ones who must cross fingers as Oppy won't stop by Corner Crater. The ones with the label as "probably" hope that Oppy has visited Corner Crater as a short doctor visit and arrives at VC with good shape. Later of that group, are ones has great possibilities to win a ticket to assist the World Cup to see for the Far and Near rim players.
So the present status is
26 players are out of game
03 players are in doubt
04 players are probably winners
33 players are still playing
66 playes in total
Sol bet Member Status
010 dot.dk out
600 Delgr6328 out
680 Gpurcell out
688 Imran out
691 Garybeau out
721 Cugel out
747 Redstone out
748 MichaelT out
777 Paxdan out
780 Alan out
801 Avkillick out
840 Antoniseb out
820 Mhoward out
842 MahFL out
855 Remcook out
866 centsworth_II out
868 Bubbinski out
875 ToSeek out
875 Ibasso out
876 Imran out
884 Helvick out
887 Marz out
888 Marswiggle out
890 Andyg out
897 SFJCody out
900 Stevo out
902 ElkGroveDan maybe
904 Steve maybe
911 Myran maybe
915 Bergadder probably
917 David S probably
920 MaxSt probably
921 Mony python probably
933 MzarKey
934 Atomoid
935 Climber
940 Toma B
942 Michaelcapobianco
947 Rneuhaus
948 Rakhir
958 Airbag
960 Tesheiner
969 mars_loon
973 Jamescanvin
980 Adam
987 Imipak
998 Dvandorn
999 Chris
1000 General
1000 Djellison
1003 Ant103
1013 Decepticon
1014 Joffan
1024 Marsman
1024 Um3k
1036 Alan
1066 Pertinax
1110 Bob Shaw
1111 Nirgal
1124 Reckless
1138 Hendric
1200 Nirgal
1237 Nprev
1500 OWW
1500 Akuo
1500 CosmicRocker
Minimum 10 dot.dk
Maximum 1500 OWW, Akuo, CosmicRock
Average 934.83 None
Median 927 Mizarkey
Rodolfo
Posted by: ElkGroveDan Jun 8 2006, 02:26 AM
Posted by: ustrax Jun 8 2006, 08:23 AM
Rodolfo, are you giving me a second chance by not making reference to my bet?...
Posted by: dilo Jun 8 2006, 08:43 PM
ehm, Rodolfo, could you please insert http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=1228&view=findpost&p=53400 (Sol927, probably out... )
Posted by: dot.dk Jun 8 2006, 09:52 PM
Minimum 10 dot.dk
Maximum 1500 OWW, Akuo, CosmicRock
Average 934.83 None
Median 927 Mizarkey
When did I bet for a SOL 10 arrival?
Posted by: Bob Shaw Jun 8 2006, 10:19 PM
Why don't we ask Mr Squyres to adjudicate for us regarding arrival day?
Over to you, Doug...
Bob Shaw
Posted by: climber Jun 8 2006, 11:56 PM
To remaind about the bet list.
Minimum 10 dot.dk
Maximum 1500 OWW, Akuo, CosmicRock
Average 934.83 None
Median 927 Mizarkey
Even if I hate to be "the mean", you'll have to admit that my Sol 935 bet (which I decided afetr lot and lot of computation) is THE closest to the mean. What does this mean ?
Posted by: RNeuhaus Jun 9 2006, 03:15 AM
Sure yes!, Thesh has broke the USMF rules and so everybody will come to bet for the VC's arrival date. Drop your sol date!
)Yup, yes, at the end I will make up another list of bets.
You wrote:
Incredible prediction. but it is fine only when it is under an exceptional mental condition!
Rodolfo
Posted by: dot.dk Jun 9 2006, 09:50 AM
That was not a real bet
And you are mixing arrival SOL and sols remaining here
Posted by: RNeuhaus Jun 9 2006, 01:10 PM
And you are mixing arrival SOL and sols remaining here
Tell me what is your bet. Oppy is still very far from VC.
Rodolfo
Posted by: Tesheiner Jun 9 2006, 02:13 PM
I think it would be fine to have not only the expected arrival date for each of us but the date in which the bet was made; it's a nice "qualifier" because it's not the same to bet for sol 900 on Jan 2006 then on Jul 2005.
Posted by: climber Jun 9 2006, 02:25 PM
[quote name='Tesheiner' date='Jun 9 2006, 04:13 PM' post='57751']
I think it would be fine to have not only the expected arrival date for each of us but the date in which the bet was made; it's a nice "qualifier" because it's not the same to bet for sol 900 on Jan 2006 then on Jul 2005.
I agree, you've got to include a ratio.
Have fun
Posted by: RNeuhaus Jun 9 2006, 04:57 PM
This is also good suggestion since it promotes more bet diversion and traffics. I have already jotted down the bet date of every players. I will update any new/update bets along with their bet dates on next week.
Rodolfo
Posted by: RNeuhaus Jun 13 2006, 04:52 PM
Updated at Sol 846
Last sol drive 846
Soles since start 88
Transversed distance 1,269 meters 57.7%
Average speed 14.4 m/sol
Remaining distance 931 meters
___________________________________________________
Outlook arrival date: 910.6 Sol --> Aug 11 at 14.4 m/sol speed average
Outlook arrival date: 939.1 Sol --> Sept 9 at 10 m/sol speed average
I have added a new outlook arrival date for Corner Crater which is now about 529.5 meters at Sol 846
Outlook arrival date at CC 899.0 Sol --->Jul 31 53.0 Soles at 10.0 m/sol speed average
http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=1228&view=findpost&p=57491
Rodolfo
Posted by: RNeuhaus Jun 21 2006, 04:13 PM
Update for the sol 855, some improvement with respect to the sol 848 (average speed/sol was 14.4 and now it is 15.0 m/sol).
Details for approaching to Victoria Crater
Last sol drive 855
Soles since start 97
Transversed distance 1,455 meters 66.1%
Average speed 15.0 m/sol
Remaining distance 745 meters
___________________________________________________
Outlook arrival date: 904.7 Sol --> Aug 8 at 15.0 m/sol speed average
Outlook arrival date: 929.5 Sol --> Sept 2 at 10.0 m/sol speed average
Details for approaching to Beagle Crater
Remaining distance 334.40 meters
___________________________________________________
Outlook arrival date: 877.3 Sol --> Jul 12 at 15.0 m/sol speed average
Outlook arrival date: 888.4 Sol --> Jul 23 at 10.0 m/sol speed average
http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=1228&view=findpost&p=58215
The probable arrival to BC depends on how much time will Oppy spend visiting around the BC. If she will spend about 20 sols, then the VC arrival date would be
between 924.7 to 949.5 Sol.
Then, the list of members are still playing for the Prize Ahead Victoria invented by Ustrax!
There are still 35 players at the distance of 745 meters away from VC.
921 Mony python
933 MzarKey
934 Atomoid
935 Climber
940 Toma B
942 Michaelcapobianco
947 Rneuhaus
948 Rakhir
958 Airbag
960 Tesheiner
969 mars_loon
973 Jamescanvin
980 Adam
987 Imipak
998 Dvandorn
999 Chris
1000 General
1000 Djellison
1003 Ant103
1013 Decepticon
1014 Joffan
1024 Marsman
1024 Um3k
1036 Alan
1066 Pertinax
1110 Bob Shaw
1111 Nirgal
1124 Reckless
1138 Hendric
1200 Nirgal
1237 Nprev
1500 OWW
1500 Akuo
1500 CosmicRocker
I don't know about how much near and far rimers fans are in the above list.
Rodolfo
Posted by: ustrax Jun 21 2006, 04:17 PM
Nope...Not me...
I only invent abysses...
Posted by: RNeuhaus Jun 21 2006, 04:46 PM
I only invent abysses...
Then, where did "Ahead Victoria" comes from?
You put a nice caravel stamps on your design pictures. Rodolfo
Posted by: ustrax Jun 21 2006, 04:49 PM
You put a nice caravel stamps on your design pictures. Rodolfo
That was a logo created to follow Opportunity sailing towards Victoria, the pool I believe it was generated by Shirl...er...Bobby...
Posted by: RNeuhaus Jul 2 2006, 11:13 PM
Update at the sol 867
Last sol drive 867
Soles since start 109
Transversed distance 1,622 meters 73.7%
Average speed 14.9 m/sol
Remaining distance 578 meters
___________________________________________________
Outlook arrival date: 905.8 Sol --> Aug 9 at 15.0 m/sol speed average
Outlook arrival date: 924.8 Sol --> Aug 28 at 10.0 m/sol speed average
Previous update at sol 855
Last sol drive 855
Soles since start 97
Transversed distance 1,455 meters 66.1%
Average speed 15.0 m/sol
Remaining distance 745 meters
___________________________________________________
Outlook arrival date: 904.7 Sol --> Aug 8 at 15.0 m/sol speed average
Outlook arrival date: [u]925.5 Sol --> Aug 29 [/u]at 10.0 m/sol speed average
corrected
Outlook comments
The transverse progress has maintained constant between the soles 855 and 867 with the average speed around 15 meters/sol. However, it seems that the Oppy's arrival at Victoria crater would be between 20-40 soles longer since the probable future scenary is that Oppy will be going slower toward Beagle crater due to the communications restrictions due to the concurrency of uplink data of commands to be executed next sol and also of new flight software version. However, JPL will try whenever possible to maximize the uplink througput by spliting the channels between UHF with Odyssey and HGA with x-band direct from DSN. When Oppy is on Beagle crater, it seems like she will remain on there for local geology explorations during between 20-30 soles.
After that, I don't know where she will go: directly to Promontory Beacon at Near Rim (
), to others small craters or to the far side rim to maximize the sun North face tilt.Rodolfo
Posted by: RNeuhaus Aug 14 2006, 09:38 PM
As the Oppy has started its journey toward to Victoria Crater and I have rescurreted the almost buried topic. I am posting the relation of bet participants. Luckly, all participants are within the probable arrival date at Victoria. So the suspense will grow with the coming Mars soles.
Now, Oppy is on its 909 Mar Soles.
Forecast:
The solstice of August 8 is over and the Sun start to rise on Mars' skies and the Sun rays will be starting to strike harder on the solar panels. The still cold weather will help to harden the sand with the some kind of layer of dioxide carbone not still sublimated. These will permit to minimize the rover slipage toward the VC. The smoother and small jumps on ripples, and no much obstacles (hope but never loose any ahead vision and not trust to the present HAZCAM technology -not good for sand but yes for rocky surface-). The surface will become monotone and Oppy will be stopping just only for few moments to scratch the sand and zoom in its IDD on the compact sand (I speculate it in order to analyze the difference of surface composition between the border of arpon and rims).
So, Oppy has left since Mars Sol 907 on its trip to VC which is around 580 meters away. Up to now, the view of the rim is very subtle except to some beacons. Imagine when Oppy is on the rim, it would be able to see well on the other side of the rim which is at 750 meters away.
The roulette has started to spin for the Mars Sol winner!!!
921 Mony python
933 MzarKey
934 Atomoid
935 Climber
940 Toma B
942 Michaelcapobianco
947 Rneuhaus
948 Rakhir
958 Airbag
960 Tesheiner
969 mars_loon
973 Jamescanvin
980 Adam
987 Imipak
998 Dvandorn
999 Chris
1000 General
1000 Djellison
1003 Ant103
1013 Decepticon
1014 Joffan
1024 Marsman
1024 Um3k
1036 Alan
1066 Pertinax
1110 Bob Shaw
1111 Nirgal
1124 Reckless
1138 Hendric
1237 Nprev
1500 OWW
1500 Akuo
1500 CosmicRocker
No more bets, so they will be staying hanging on the fence.
If there is enough quorum, then there will be another round of bet???? Rodolfo
Posted by: Nirgal Aug 15 2006, 10:35 AM
Rodolfo
looks good for your Sol 947 bet, Rodolfo :-)
(although I for myself pessimistically voted for Sol 1111 (taking into account a broken wheel like Spirit), my optimistic hope would be for arrival on Sept. 12
... )
BTW.: just as side note: I'm not a native englisch speaker and probably I'm wrong, but shouldn't it read "Poll" instead of "Pool" ... just a typo or can one actually use the word "Pool" for a this kind of voting ?(just courious and always trying to improve my english ;-)
Posted by: paxdan Aug 15 2006, 11:21 AM
Pool is correct in the context.
Posted by: Phil Stooke Aug 15 2006, 12:57 PM
People 'pool' their contributions (money usually, maybe Mars bars here) - they put them all together - and the winner takes it all.
Phil
Posted by: Bill Harris Aug 15 2006, 02:58 PM
And, in the southern USA, there are "betting pools" and "football pools", so there is an element of chance or gambling with a "pool".
--Bill
Posted by: fredk Aug 15 2006, 03:45 PM
Well, since the topic of the title has come up, that "if" has always bugged me a bit - should be "of".
Unless the topic starter meant to indicate that Oppy might not arive at VC, in which case it could be "Arrival, if ever, of Oppy at Victoria".
--- end nitpicking gramatical mode ---
Posted by: mars loon Aug 15 2006, 10:05 PM
Well to get some clarification on this inscrutible point of what was meant on "if" vs "of" , here is what the topic starter wrote
looks like a simple typo
First complete panorama of crater interior perhaps?
otherwise pool looks good to me
and has "arrival" been herein precisely defined ?
ken
Posted by: mhoward Aug 15 2006, 10:32 PM
Cleaned up the title.
Posted by: mars loon Aug 15 2006, 11:14 PM
thanks
as long as we're fix'in, how about that strange punctuation .,
Posted by: mhoward Aug 15 2006, 11:48 PM
as long as we're fix'in, how about that strange punctuation .,
Sheesh, you guys are sticklers. Okay.
Can't do anything about the comma - Invision adds that.
Posted by: mars loon Aug 16 2006, 12:02 AM
Can't do anything about the comma - Invision adds that.
looks great
you are indeed a man of many talents
Posted by: dvandorn Aug 16 2006, 04:05 AM
I thought our definition of "arrival" at a crater was the point at which the pancam and navcam lenses can see the floor of the crater down at least to its geometric center. Just seeing the far wall isn't enough.
-the other Doug
Posted by: ElkGroveDan Aug 16 2006, 05:13 AM
This is one area where O-Doug and I agree. I think someone suggested a few months back the first photo of any part of the dunes inside the crater was the arrival date.
Posted by: djellison Aug 16 2006, 06:54 AM
Yes. It is the first sol the rover spends at the site and drive number where it takes the large pancam mosaic that will obviously be taken of the crater. It's not the day that mosaic starts being taken, it's the day the rover is first on that site.
That definition has been in place for several months, and is something that I will determine at the time ( which is why I asked previously for my guestimate to be taken out for the sake of impartiality )
However despite a clear definition, I'm sure, as I expect will be the case with the far/near rim nonsense, it will results in a lengthy, pointless argument and debate that will end up with some deleted posts.
Doug
Posted by: BrianL Aug 16 2006, 04:36 PM
No it won't.
Brian
Posted by: dvandorn Aug 16 2006, 11:57 PM
Brian
Yes, it will!
-the other Doug
Posted by: MizarKey Aug 22 2006, 03:22 PM
With the past couple of days drives, it looks like sol933 isn't out of the question...too cool.
Posted by: RNeuhaus Aug 22 2006, 03:47 PM
Now Oppy is on its Sol 916 and 317 meters away from the close to beacon (in straight line of its track). It is 4 days for starting the selecting the winner!
If doing a simple maths, Oppy advancing at an average of 35 meters per sol in a week: that is 317 meters - 30 meters (before to rim for a slow motion) = 287/35 = 8.2 days + 4 days for recognizing => Total would be 13 days
I feel that Oppy will slow down few tens meters before arriving the rim. So my forecast is that the arrival would be in 13 soles.
So , it look like that the winners would be between Mizarkey and up to Climber only when the travel plan is almost a non-stop up to rim.
921 Mony python
933 MzarKey
934 Atomoid
935 Climber
940 Toma B
942 Michaelcapobianco
947 Rneuhaus
948 Rakhir
958 Airbag
960 Tesheiner
969 mars_loon
973 Jamescanvin
980 Adam
987 Imipak
998 Dvandorn
999 Chris
1000 General
#1000 Djellison Not in pool - acting adjudicator
1003 Ant103
1013 Decepticon
1014 Joffan
1024 Marsman
1024 Um3k
1036 Alan
1066 Pertinax
1110 Bob Shaw
1111 Nirgal
1124 Reckless
1138 Hendric
1237 Nprev
1500 OWW
1500 Akuo
1500 CosmicRocker
Rodolfo
Posted by: RNeuhaus Sep 5 2006, 04:56 PM
Today is 930 Mars sol.
New update, It seems very probably that Oppy will get in touch to VC by between September 18 and 24. That is between 13 and 20 soles only if there is no any safe mode interruption. The probably winners would be :
between 943 and 950
921 Mony python --> out
933 MzarKey
934 Atomoid
935 Climber
940 Toma B
942 Michaelcapobianco
947 Rneuhaus
948 Rakhir
958 Airbag
960 Tesheiner
969 mars_loon
973 Jamescanvin
980 Adam
987 Imipak
998 Dvandorn
999 Chris
1000 General
#1000 Djellison Not in pool - acting adjudicator
1003 Ant103
1013 Decepticon
1014 Joffan
1024 Marsman
1024 Um3k
1036 Alan
1066 Pertinax
1110 Bob Shaw
1111 Nirgal
1124 Reckless
1138 Hendric
1237 Nprev
1500 OWW
1500 Akuo
1500 CosmicRocker
Rodolfo
Posted by: climber Sep 5 2006, 08:26 PM
The probably winners would be :between 943 and 950
Rodolfo
You've only got 4 more sols to think about it
Posted by: Tesheiner Sep 5 2006, 08:34 PM
Perhaps the MER team should plan a science stop here at Epsilon.
What do you think, climber?
Posted by: Rakhir Sep 5 2006, 09:07 PM
between 943 and 950
Rodolfo,
your guesstimate suits me fine
-- Rakhir
Posted by: RNeuhaus Sep 5 2006, 09:17 PM
your guesstimate suits me fine
-- Rakhir
Please ssssshhhhhh!!! not yet
Rodolfo
Posted by: Airbag Sep 6 2006, 12:33 AM
What do you think, climber?
I agree, a medium length stop would work well
Airbag
Posted by: mars loon Sep 6 2006, 12:51 AM
Yes. certainly a few more days to insure the highest quality science, no accidental tumbling, no dangling IDD and the Most Breathtaking Pan to ignite media attention!
would be appropriate
ken
Posted by: CosmicRocker Sep 6 2006, 03:14 AM
While I doubt they will, I could imagine sticking around this little cluster of craters for a while to do some science, but I am having a hard time coming up with 570 sols worth.
Posted by: Bobby Sep 6 2006, 03:42 AM
Is this Rear Hazcam Image from a new drive today (September 5th) or is this from yesterdays drive???
http://qt.exploratorium.edu/mars/opportunity/rear_hazcam/2006-09-05/1R210659423EFF75%23%23P1375R0M1.JPG
Posted by: jamescanvin Sep 6 2006, 03:53 AM
http://qt.exploratorium.edu/mars/opportunity/rear_hazcam/2006-09-05/1R210659423EFF75%23%23P1375R0M1.JPG
It's from yestersol (929) - no driving tosol
Posted by: Bobby Sep 6 2006, 03:57 AM
Thanks James and posted this in the wrong thread
Posted by: climber Sep 6 2006, 04:35 AM
Sorry guys, I still have a little chance but most of you don't
Pedal to the metal pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeease
Posted by: Pando Sep 8 2006, 07:01 PM
I'll make a prediction. Either of these two. It's going to be close.
940 Toma B
942 Michaelcapobianco
(note that I never signed up for this pool)
Posted by: climber Sep 8 2006, 07:26 PM
Note that (more or less ) my maths weren't that far
Here is how I did my bet :
That' an easy one !
Take launch date of Spirit and Oppy 1006 and 0707; add them = 1707. Divide by 2 = 854
Difference between actual sol 773 and 854 is 854-773 = 81. Now, You just add it to 854....and
SOL 935 is my bet
Climber
If I didn't did this error of calculation, (1006 + 0707 give 1713 and not 1707) I would may be have been right
Posted by: Tesheiner Sep 15 2006, 10:28 AM
That definition has been in place for several months, and is something that I will determine at the time ( which is why I asked previously for my guestimate to be taken out for the sake of impartiality )
However despite a clear definition, I'm sure, as I expect will be the case with the far/near rim nonsense, it will results in a lengthy, pointless argument and debate that will end up with some deleted posts.
Doug
According to this definition and taking into account last SS's update:
"Our current plan is to take some Navcam images from the arrival point at the alcove, pick either Cape Verde or Cabo Frio, and then move out onto the chosen promontory and take what should be one heck of a spectacular Pancam panorama."
Arrival won't be just a few (two?) driving sols in the future but we should consider driving to Cabo Verde too.
I like that!
Posted by: djellison Sep 15 2006, 10:35 AM
LOL - the rule still stands - as it has stood for a long time ( and plenty long enough for people to have changed their minds ) - and I still maintain that until we stop to have a proper look, we've not 'arrived'
Doug
Posted by: climber Sep 15 2006, 11:25 AM
"Our current plan is to take some Navcam images from the arrival point at the alcove, pick either Cape Verde or Cabo Frio, and then move out onto the chosen promontory and take what should be one heck of a spectacular Pancam panorama."
Arrival won't be just a few (two?) driving sols in the future but we should consider driving to Cabo Verde too.
I like that!
Tesheiner you're a DEVIL
You CAN'T be right I'll do a Riot too if it's Sol 960Edit : As you've seen, RIOTS pay OFF (see Ustrax's)
Posted by: Pavel Sep 27 2006, 03:44 PM
948 Rakhir
958 Airbag
...
I guess Rakhir is the winner.
Posted by: general Sep 27 2006, 03:51 PM
Not yet...
http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=3205&view=findpost&p=69993
Posted by: RNeuhaus Sep 27 2006, 03:57 PM
The winner will receive prizes!, and also for the second and third places with some kind of champagne to splash overall
Rodolfo
Posted by: Rakhir Sep 27 2006, 04:42 PM
Let's wait for Doug's decision...
The suspense is killing me !
Posted by: Airbag Sep 27 2006, 04:52 PM
Same here! Can we really see enough of the crater yet to warrant a full pancam mosaic though? I guess we'll find out in the next few sols...
Airbag
Posted by: djellison Sep 27 2006, 06:34 PM
I think we could be several sols from it yet.
Doug
Posted by: Pando Sep 28 2006, 12:11 AM
Well Doug, make up your mind, since NASA already said it on their website:
http://marsrovers.jpl.nasa.gov/gallery/press/opportunity/20060927b.html
I'd say that qualifies for 'arrival.' But yeah, we may have a few meters to go to reach the edge; then again, this thing is so huge that we may be nitpicking...
I would also mention that the peaked excitement the Sol 951 images caused in this forum also qualifies as 'arrival'.
And the fact that for the first time we can see the dune field, the absolute center bottom of this crater.
Posted by: centsworth_II Sep 28 2006, 12:18 AM
It's not a matter of how close to the edge they get, but where they park to take the initial full panorama. They haven't even decided where that will be, let alone arrived at it! I do remember that at one point the suggestion was made to have the first image of the central ripples mark arrival. But that was supplanted by arrival at the location from which the first full panorama is taken at some point. (Hey! I don't make the rules, I just try to understand them.)
Posted by: djellison Sep 28 2006, 07:30 AM
The UMSF 'arrival' definition has been known for months and months. You all know the rules, you all had the chance to change your predictions....and you all know it's engineered so we 'arrive' during my Glog week (Not really - but that's how it's looking to me at the moment )
Doug
Posted by: djellison Sep 28 2006, 10:08 PM
Part one of the Duck Bay pan starts tomorrow (953) - so I declare 952 as the arrrival sol.
Rakhir is indeed - THE WINNER
Doug
Posted by: Nix Sep 28 2006, 10:18 PM
Congratulations Rakhir
Nico
Posted by: RNeuhaus Sep 28 2006, 10:20 PM
Hello Rakhir,
Congratulations of your great luck. I remember that you chose my sol date and you realized that the sol was taken by me and you advanced further one sol. Again congratulations. It is unbelievle that we come so close to that date.
Happy Victoria Beer!
Rodolfo
Posted by: jamescanvin Sep 28 2006, 11:08 PM
And a special mention to Ilbasso who in the original pool some 14 months ago was the closest (875). Not only that, but if you discount the 80 sols we spent at Erebus (651 - 731, the first 'real' drive) he was only 3 sols out!
Posted by: Airbag Sep 29 2006, 02:22 AM
Ah, nobody ever remembers who came in second or third!
Congrats Rakhir!
Airbag
Posted by: Rakhir Sep 29 2006, 04:38 AM
Rakhir is indeed - THE WINNER
Doug
Thank you for all !
It's an honour to win a pool in such a great forum for the arrival at such a great place on Mars !
After this long trek from Endurance, it's time now to look at some beautiful pans, uncover some secrets from Victoria and Mars history
... and to open some good bottles. Champagne anyone ?
And congratulations to Rodolfo and Airbag for the second and third place, and to Ilbasso for the http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=1228&view=findpost&p=70460 of the original pool.
BTW, what is the price Doug ?
-- Rakhir
Edit : Corrected second and third place as Doug declared 952 as the arrival sol (Rodolfo 5 days off, Airbag 6 days off)
Posted by: clt510 Sep 29 2006, 06:24 AM
Thank you for all !
It's an honour to win a pool in such a great forum for the arrival at such a great place on Mars !
After this long trek from Endurance, it's time now to look at some beautiful pans, uncover some secrets from Victoria and Mars history
... and to open some good bottles. Champagne anyone ?
And congratulations to Airbag and Rodolfo for the second and third place, and to Ilbasso for the http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=1228&view=findpost&p=70460 of the original pool.
BTW, what is the price Doug ?
-- Rakhir
how do we go about collecting a little happy for Rakhir. I'd pop $5US for a nice bottle of champagne for him (& I didn't even participate in the "contest").
Posted by: ToSeek Sep 29 2006, 02:51 PM
Huzzah!
Posted by: climber Jul 17 2007, 07:21 PM
921 Mony python
933 MzarKey
934 Atomoid
935 Climber
940 Toma B
942 Michaelcapobianco
947 Rneuhaus
948 Rakhir
958 Airbag
960 Tesheiner
969 mars_loon
973 Jamescanvin
980 Adam
987 Imipak
998 Dvandorn
999 Chris
1000 General
#1000 Djellison Not in pool - acting adjudicator
1003 Ant103
1013 Decepticon
1014 Joffan
1024 Marsman
1024 Um3k
1036 Alan
1066 Pertinax
1110 Bob Shaw
1111 Nirgal
1124 Reckless
1138 Hendric
1237 Nprev
1500 OWW
1500 Akuo
1500 CosmicRocker
Regarding this very old trait, beware that OWW, Akuo & CosmicRocker didn't believe at this time that we'll be even at Victoria by now! Do NOT laught Nprev, your bet was for today!
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