Pool: Arrival at Victoria, Place your bets... Options

[avkillick]

OK - for a little diversion, give your best guess as to the arrival of Oppy at Victoria. Before we do that, perhaps some agreement as when we can say that event has happened.

First complete panorama of crater interior perhaps?

[djellison]

I'd say the first image which shows anything that could be considered part of a dune at the bottom of the crater.

we could 'arrive' and take 6 days for a panorama

I will go for 663

Doug

[deglr6328]

sol 600 (via massive rogue dust devil )

[ElkGroveDan]

I'll take sol 702.

I will also predict that we will be amazed at the made-to-order entry ramp that appears among the steep unaproachable slopes everywhere else. There will be lots of useful geology, but fewer chances for up-close contact than there were in Endurance due to steep slopes and large dunes.

[gpurcell]

Sol 680

[OWW]

I think Opportunity will arrive on sol 650.... at Erebus!
And Victoria? Never.

1. The etched terrain has countless interesting science targets. If Spirit stops every 50 meters on Husband Hill, what makes you think Opportunity won't do the same here? The MOC images show many spectacular mesas ahead.

2. The etched terrain is covered with dunes similar to purgatory. That means 30 meters per sol at best.

The way I see it, Oppy will only reach Victoria if the batteries are still working on sol 1500.

[dot.dk]

How far away from Oppys current position is Victoria?

[dot.dk]

I found this map and it looks like it's a little over 2 km before we will reach Victoria.

If we could do 200 m / SOL it would only take 10 SOLs

[alan]

sol 780

[Nirgal]

-> my bet: Christmas Eve 2005

things in Favor for reaching Victoria :

- North-south running dunes
- Flat bedrock pavement
- Proven inter-dune driving technique with 30 meters a day -> 2 km in 70 Sols
- Enough solar power through sol 700 (Hevlicks POwer Chart !)
- Cleaning events
- And last not least: Victoria seems still considered a target by Steve Squyres
(at least implicitely so according to his July/29 update

things against

- dunes may become larger and steeper farther to the south
- too many intermediate outcrop-science-stops will eventually "bleed" the batteries just before arrival at Victoria ...
- And last not least: A mechanical failure or other hazard can kill oppy any time, long before solar power depletion

But all in all I'm optimistic that we will make it.

Wouldn't the final decent into the majestic abyss of the Great Victoria Crater be a worthy end to one of the most phantastic interplanteray space missions ever ?

Nirgal,


P.S.: am I obsessed with Victoria ? yes, definitely

[RNeuhaus]

By the end of January, sol 695. Let us pray for a high Tau, good general health and also invite for more dust devils to fan on Oppy' solar panels. From here to January, the hope will swing many times. Some times is Ja and other is nein.

Rodolfo

[akuo]

I go with ObsessedWithWorlds. I am sort of sick of this obsession with Victoria. Mission managers have previously identified the etched terrain as a scientific target. There is about as far to go to Victoria through the Etched terrain as Oppy has travelled south through the dunefields. I seem to remember that Etched terrain also has significant altitude changes, meaning that it might actually show more layers than Victoria. Victoria might be just a jumbled mess of rocks that are hard to reach.

People should appreciate more where we *are*.

[RNeuhaus]

- too many intermediate outcrop-science-stops will eventually "bleed" the batteries just before arrival at Victoria ...

According to the MER Technical document, the IDD does not consume much energy as the communications and rolls. Besides, the outcrop on the Etched Erebus are very similar except to an interesting and strange thing. Hence the geology man will not be much interested to stop so often, "Ah, that is alike that I have seen previously."

Rodolfo

[garybeau]

Sol 691

[Nirgal]

People should appreciate more where we *are*.

when reading the posts in this board one can sense an overhelming appreciation
of this mission, of what has been reached so far and of the people at JPL enabling it ... almost every serious post is full of this sense of appreciation and gratefulness (that's why I love this forum above so many other discussion boards, BTW

I for myself am thankful for every single image, well knowing that it can be the last one every day and that every additional sol is a true gift for us ...
It's more than appreciated

But then there are of course also the dreams and the curiosity, the desire to reach even new horizon's, romantic legends like Ultreya and Victoria ... there is nothing wrong with this feelings: they have always been the driving force behind science and human exploration ...