Phobos-Grunt Options

[brellis]

Regarding dilo's charts from post #641: what happened on the 28th to produce the dip in energy and the bump in orbital period? Is that evidence of the spacecraft continuing to orient itself?

[dilo]

Regarding dilo's charts from post #641: what happened on the 28th to produce the dip in energy and the bump in orbital period? Is that evidence of the spacecraft continuing to orient itself?

I tend to think is a wrong period value reported by RosCosmos because average height do not show any discontinuity...
Anyway, this is the updated plot:

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[Drkskywxlt]

Overambitious and underfunding killed this mission says Michael Listner.
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/space...robe/52457434/1

Article also says the project scientist wants to refly the mission if possible and that the hydrazine tank should be destroyed during reentry.

[Explorer1]

From Spaceweather.com:

Russia's malfunctioning Mars probe, Phobos-Grunt, is sinking back into Earth's atmosphere. Taking into account the current space weather forecast and the area-to-mass ratio of the spacecraft, Ted Molczan estimates the time of re-entry: Jan 16 @ 18:00 UTC +/- 1.2 days.

Not official, so of course take with a bit of NaCl, but it's a date at least.

[dilo]

Update based on Roscosmos orbit data:

Herebelow I assembled last 20 days decay forecasts from Corbellini:

[dilo]

From "Herald Sun" (do not know how much reliable can be):
"The space agency said on its website that fragments of the stranded Phobos-Grunt voyager would probably fall to Earth between 0341 AEDT and 0805 AEDT on Monday. But it cancelled its Saturday forecast of the debris splashing down in the Pacific off the western coast of Chile...Roscosmos predicts that only 20 or 30 segments weighing no more than 200kg in total will survive the explosive re-entry and actually hit the Earth's surface."
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/technology/sci...3-1226244927093
Curiously, here in Italy mass media ignored almost completely this event, perhaps due to coincidence of "Concordia" cruiser crash near "isola del Giglio"...

[Greg Hullender]

The feed James Canvin pointed us to is saying Phobos-Grunt will be down within minutes, if not already.

http://twitter.com/PhG_Reentry

Can anyone confirm that?

--Greg

[Greg Hullender]

Associated Press is reporting that Phobos-Grunt landed in the Pacific.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_...-01-15-13-16-47

--Greg

[dilo]

Based on russian sources, the spacecraft re-entered off Brazil at 17h59 UTC; the coordinates of the center point are -310.7 deg E (or 49.3 degW) and 18.2 degrees south latitude, with a wide band dispersion of fragments, told RIA Novosti source in the space industry.

[Jaheira]

Here's Spaceflight Now's spin on events.........

Ill-fated Mars probe reportedly falls to Earth

[monitorlizard]

What looks to my untrained eyes as the most likely explanation of the P-G failure is at:

http://www.russianspaceweb.com

It's the front page story right now, but when something replaces it, look for the article titled "Plausible Scenario for the Phobos-Grunt Failure Emerges."

[ElkGroveDan]

What looks to my untrained eyes as the most likely explanation of the P-G failure is at:

http://www.russianspaceweb.com

Thanks for that. I look forward to a full analysis and details of what transpired after the brief contact and prior to the total shutdown.

[Gsnorgathon]

Direct link, for when the article moves off the front page.

[ElkGroveDan]

Off to the side in that article are three images of Phobos-Grunt in orbit; an artist rendering by Anatoly Zak, a photo taken by Thierry Legault, and a radar profile taken with the 49 meter TIRA radar in Germany (Fraunhofer FHR).

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[Drkskywxlt]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46202087/ns/te..._science-space/

Vladimir Popovkin, head of Roscosmos, now says that cosmic radiation caused a low-quality part to fail in Phobos-Grunt, and that was the cause of the mission failure. This at least seems more plausible than the OTHER radiation they initially blamed. Also says the spacecraft's manufacturer will face "punishment".