(Paper) Evidence of a Jovian Mass Solar Companion in the Oort Cloud? |
(Paper) Evidence of a Jovian Mass Solar Companion in the Oort Cloud? |
Apr 27 2010, 05:07 AM
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#1
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1729 Joined: 3-August 06 From: 43° 35' 53" N 1° 26' 35" E Member No.: 1004 |
[Posts moved from "INCOMING" discussion.]
... a new confirmation of the "Nemesis" theory Persistent Evidence of a Jovian Mass Solar Companion in the Oort Cloud |
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Apr 27 2010, 07:45 AM
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#2
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 3516 Joined: 4-November 05 From: North Wales Member No.: 542 |
Much appreciated, thanks. Best of all the full article is available free.
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Apr 27 2010, 10:35 AM
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#3
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1452 Joined: 26-July 08 Member No.: 4270 |
I think calling it a "confirmation" is giving it a bit too much credit, but it is interesting nonetheless.
As they state, WISE will shed much more light on the issue. -------------------- -- Hungry4info (Sirius_Alpha)
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Apr 27 2010, 12:02 PM
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#4
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Solar System Cartographer Group: Members Posts: 10229 Joined: 5-April 05 From: Canada Member No.: 227 |
This certainly can't be called a confirmation, as Hungry4info already said. Let's see how the paper is received. I'd love to see such an object discovered (though I don't see how it could have been missed in the past) - what a target for a New Horizons-type mission! But I'm not very hopeful.
Phil -------------------- ... because the Solar System ain't gonna map itself.
Also to be found posting similar content on https://mastodon.social/@PhilStooke Maps for download (free PDF: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/comm...Cartography.pdf NOTE: everything created by me which I post on UMSF is considered to be in the public domain (NOT CC, public domain) |
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Apr 27 2010, 04:07 PM
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#5
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1018 Joined: 29-November 05 From: Seattle, WA, USA Member No.: 590 |
Some interesting points (this thing is over 40 pages long!)
1) They reject the "Nemesis" concept, saying the object couldn't cause "comet storms." 2) They want to name it "Tyche" for the good sister of Nemesis. 3) They're talking 1-4 MJ at 10,000 to 30,000 AU; to put that in perspective, note that even a probe like NH would take thousands of years get there. 4) It's inclined 133 degrees to the ecliptic, but they think the orbit's circular. 5) Depending on assumptions, they give as much as a 50% chance that this is an illusion caused by randomness in the observations. Within year, WISE will know. Gives us something to anticipate though. --Greg |
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Apr 27 2010, 04:57 PM
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#6
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1729 Joined: 3-August 06 From: 43° 35' 53" N 1° 26' 35" E Member No.: 1004 |
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Apr 27 2010, 05:09 PM
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#7
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Member Group: Members Posts: 252 Joined: 5-May 05 From: Mississippi (USA) Member No.: 379 |
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Apr 27 2010, 06:07 PM
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#8
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Interplanetary Dumpster Diver Group: Admin Posts: 4404 Joined: 17-February 04 From: Powell, TN Member No.: 33 |
Yeah, why in the world would they use math in trying to determine whether the effects of a massive object in the Kuiper Belt are present? Next thing you know they will start using it in computing spacecraft trajectories.
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Apr 27 2010, 08:51 PM
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#9
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1592 Joined: 14-October 05 From: Vermont Member No.: 530 |
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Apr 27 2010, 10:46 PM
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#10
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 3516 Joined: 4-November 05 From: North Wales Member No.: 542 |
Whether this object exists or not there is plenty of room for them in the unsearched parameter space. I'm surprised Phil thinks anything out there would have been discovered already. How, I wonder?
Agreed, 50 percent is not a great probability. Most researchers wait for 95 percent before publishing. |
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Apr 27 2010, 10:47 PM
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#11
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8785 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
The merits of math aside, statistical inference is always to be taken with a grain of salt on its own. To paraphrase a quote I once heard, 'You can prove anything with a logarithmic chart!'
I see this paper as a bit of a roll of the dice by the authors. WISE might conceivably spot such an object; if it does, then they might go down in history as the 21st Century equivalents of Leverrier & Adams. -------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Apr 28 2010, 12:49 AM
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#12
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1887 Joined: 20-November 04 From: Iowa Member No.: 110 |
This paper reminds me of an article I read in Sky and Telescope ~20 years ago which also speculated that a group of comets with aphelia on a narrow band of galactic longitude were due to distant solar companion. I'll have to see if I can locate a copy.
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Apr 28 2010, 01:15 AM
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#13
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Solar System Cartographer Group: Members Posts: 10229 Joined: 5-April 05 From: Canada Member No.: 227 |
I was assuming that IR surveys - going right back to IRAS - would have picked up anything this size.
Phil -------------------- ... because the Solar System ain't gonna map itself.
Also to be found posting similar content on https://mastodon.social/@PhilStooke Maps for download (free PDF: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/comm...Cartography.pdf NOTE: everything created by me which I post on UMSF is considered to be in the public domain (NOT CC, public domain) |
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Apr 28 2010, 02:37 AM
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#14
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8785 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
They do mention IRAS, and sort of artfully adjust their constraints to account for the fact that it was not in fact previously discovered.
Well, the best part of this hypothesis is that it can be tested fairly rigorously. A lot of us here have been half-expecting WISE to discover at least one massive body closer than Proxima as discussed in other threads, and "half-expecting" is precisely the numerical probability assigned by the authors to this putative distant Jovian! -------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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Apr 28 2010, 08:29 PM
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#15
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Member Group: Members Posts: 202 Joined: 9-September 08 Member No.: 4334 |
I hope this works out, and that WISE finds the object .. but can it? I remember reading that WISE couldn't find an Earth-size body at Kuiper belt (or was it Oort cloud?) temperatures. At that distance from the Sun, it'll be *really* cold ... but at Jupiter-mass plus, it should produce a significant amount of internal heat.
'Tyche' is a clever name. 3) They're talking 1-4 MJ at 10,000 to 30,000 AU; to put that in perspective, note that even a probe like NH would take thousands of years get there. Yeah, if it exists, it'll take a new generation of propulsion technologies to get there in anything resembling a reasonable time. Presuming 20,000 AU, to get there in twenty years would require an average speed of 4740 km/s. |
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