Gut feeling... |
Gut feeling... |
May 22 2008, 08:15 PM
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#1
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Member Group: Members Posts: 813 Joined: 8-February 04 From: Arabia Terra Member No.: 12 |
Something I have not posted online before...
Back in 2003, as four spacecraft approached Mars, I wrote down on a piece of paper my guess (based on nothing more than public information & gut feeling) at what each craft's chance of success (either at landing or orbital insertion) might be. My guesses were: Nozomi: 15% Beagle 2: 20% MER A: 60% MER B: 60% Mars Express: 85% In 2005 I guessed that MRO had a 90% chance of success Now, in 2008, I'm going to put a figure on Phoenix. That figure is: 55% What do you think? Too low? Too high? |
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May 22 2008, 08:54 PM
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#2
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Founder Group: Chairman Posts: 14432 Joined: 8-February 04 Member No.: 1 |
I've been trying to figure this out for myself. I decided that Phoenix has a better chance than Lewis Hamilton has of not winning the Monaco Grand Prix.
67% is the figure I've come up with. 2/3rds - which, by chance, is the ratio of powered decent landings on Mars. Doug |
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May 24 2008, 12:51 PM
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#3
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2920 Joined: 14-February 06 From: Very close to the Pyrénées Mountains (France) Member No.: 682 |
I've been trying to figure this out for myself. I decided that Phoenix has a better chance than Lewis Hamilton has of not winning the Monaco Grand Prix. Doug Both would be happy to get the Pole position -------------------- |
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May 24 2008, 12:59 PM
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#4
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Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8783 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602 |
Both would be happy to get the Pole position Okay, Climber gets the "Phoenix Pre-Landing Worst Pun Award"... -------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
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May 24 2008, 02:31 PM
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#5
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Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2920 Joined: 14-February 06 From: Very close to the Pyrénées Mountains (France) Member No.: 682 |
Okay, Climber gets the "Phoenix Pre-Landing Worst Pun Award"... I was so frustated not to win SpacEurope's (actualy I didn't send any entry since I'm far from mastering Photoshop or whatever) -------------------- |
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