After Victoria..., .. what next? Options

[ustrax]

"Big Crater" seems way too far off for any reasonable hope of getting there. That being the case, before leaving Victoria someone better informed to really needs to explain to me why the risk-adjusted scientific payoffs now seem more fruitful outside the crater than at or near the pedestals of one or two of the capes.

Well, I'm not better informed but here's my take at it...

"As you set out for Ithaca
hope your road is a long one,
full of adventure, full of discovery.
Laistrygonians, Cyclops,
angry Poseidon - don't be afraid of them:
you' ll never find things like that on your way
as long as you keep your thoughts raised high,
as long as a rare excitement
stirs your spirit and your body."

Get us out of the hole Steve!!!
This rovers were made for roving!!!

[centsworth_II]

...a wheel failure would appear to be not too far away, and with it -
a navigational tomb stone.

A failure that would prevent Opportunity from exiting Victoria, over
solid surface, would probably also trap the rover in the sand ripples
of the Meridiani plain. For that reason, I see crossing back to Erebus
-- or going anywhere over the ripples -- as being at least as risky as
further exploration of Victoria. Perhaps the coward's way out is to
spend the rest of the mission exploring Victoria's rim and apron.

[ustrax]

I just asked SS if they are really considering leaving Victoria already?
Where to next, Ithaca? Erebus? Circumnavigation?...

He left me bitting my nails from here on...

"Wait and see... you might be surprised. - SS"

[centsworth_II]

"Wait and see... you might be surprised. - SS"

Wow. Sounds like the producers of "Lost".

[ilbasso]

My memory may be foggy (hey, I just became a grandfather!), but wasn't it the "pedal to the metal" driving that immediately preceded the first wheel problems on both Oppy and Spirit? I remember that Spirit started having wheel issues after the dash from Bonneville to the Promontory. And Oppy also had some problems beginning after several successive sols of record-breaking drives going south from Endurance (not to mention getting snagged in Purgatory). I really like the excitement of covering a lot of ground quickly, but it appears to be hard on the rovers if sustained for more than a couple of sols.

If we're going to be mythical, let's envision Oppy sprouting wings like Pegasus and floating to Ithaca on the gentle autumn Zephyrs.

[ElkGroveDan]

I predict that they will be heading back to the smooth plains to the North, but will be taking a wide swing to the East to avoid the heavy dunes in the Erebus region.

[CosmicRocker]

That's the thing isn't it. IS it accessible. We don't know that. It's fairly clear that if it is (in terms of navigability AND accessibility of the actual rock under the dust/soil covering) , they'll try to get to it. ...

Yeah. That's exactly what it comes down to in the end. We can only guess what the handlers will actually decide to do. We know they will be cautious in their navigation, but we also know that the reason the rover was directed to Victoria was because it was the deepest hole in the neighborhood.

After making the difficult, but fascinating trek to Victoria, we've learned a lot, but we are also disappointed to discover that this hole has not exposed the deeper layers we hoped to find. There are strong reasons why this rover should try to collect data from the deepest rocks it can access here, before moving on.

If they decide to move on, rather than study the deeper layers here, it's a long walk to a bigger hole. It seems that the best use we can get from the rover is to go somewhere else. Wherever these rovers go on this planet, they will make discoveries.

[ustrax]

If they decide to move on, rather than study the deeper layers here, it's a long walk to a bigger hole. It seems that the best use we can get from the rover is to go somewhere else. Wherever these rovers go on this planet, they will make discoveries.

I totally agree with that point CosmicRocker and regarding Ithaca...huummm...looks far...I told Steve that the teaser induced me to that on the clouds nail bitting frenzy...then he pulled me back to solid ground...
"I don't think you'll find it to be all that dramatic. But we're not ready to leave the crater yet"...
Not that epic but it's what we've got for now...

[Stu]

I'm not sure if this has any relevence to the In/Out discussion to be honest, but I came across this very interesting HiRISE crater image whilst browsing recently and it set something buzzing in my head...



Un-named crater in Meridiani

... and, well, looking at the outcrops along its rim made me realise that Victoria is really shallow, and that after studying the new layer, with just that pool of sand ahead of us, perhaps we're not going to see an awful lot more here? (unless we drive closer to an outcrop and do some detailed studying of it...)

Just thinking aloud. Others will have more insightful comments and observations, I'm sure

[Floyd]

I like your crater Stu. How far is it from Opportunity--maybe she can visit

[algorimancer]

Ithaca (Big Crater), or die trying. One advantage which we have now is high-resolution orbiter pics of the terrain, so there are unlikely to be any really troublesome surprises, and the dunes become less troublesome to the southeast. Ithaca is the most interesting and uniquely different feature conceivably accessible, and given enough sunlight and lack of hardware breakdowns, the more recent software update should make it at least as achievable as was Victoria.

[BrianL]

Ithaca (Big Crater), or die trying. One advantage which we have now is high-resolution orbiter pics of the terrain

Do we have HiRise pics that cover the entire route between Victoria and Ithaca? If so, please point me to them.

Thanks
Brian

[climber]

Ithaca is the most interesting and uniquely different feature conceivably accessible, and given enough sunlight and lack of hardware breakdowns, the more recent software update should make it at least as achievable as was Victoria.

It's amazing to have the luxury to have such an idea so late in the mission! I agree with you for a simple reason : if something brake in the way to Ithaca we'll be back to a simple lander instead of a rover. Once Vicky will be done, I see no advantage of having a lander at Vicky instead of on the plain; so let's go to Ithaca instead of spending years at Vicky or going back to known places . Need two years ? So what ?
This will be my choice.

[djellison]

Do we have HiRise pics that cover the entire route between Victoria and Ithaca?

No, we don't. We have quite a lot of terrain covered : http://hirise.lpl.arizona.edu/PSP_004289_1780 : but not all of it. Given our recent news of early symptoms of wheel failure, my opinion on this is firmer than ever before. If, after exhausting every possible scientific target in and around the Victoria annulus there are genuinely no other valid options, then why not. But I don't see that happening before the wheel failure is likely to occur, and at that point, it is, imho, a fundamentally impossible challenge. I see little point in abandoning accessible science for a target that all sensible consideration would deem inaccessible. With a brand new rover without 12km on the clock (2000% of it's design life), maybe, just maybe, it would be possible - and even if it were, it took two years to get from Endurance to Victoria. Do the maths. In a romantic world without technical failures and dune fields, bring it on. Sadly, that's not the case, and I genuinely, honestly believe people who suggest it should be done before every other possible option has been thoroughly explored are sending the rover to an earlier-than-necessary death.

http://global-data.mars.asu.edu/ctx/img/P0...1780_XI_02S005W and http://global-data.mars.asu.edu/ctx/img/P0...1780_XI_02S005W probably offer the best overview of the route. The easy 200m/sol terrain is visible as a slightly lighter tone that extends from Endurance for several km north - in a band that runs East-West. There is etched terrain similar to that of the Erebus-to-Beagle run (20-50m/sol with occasional dune fields ) runs west for a dozen KM, then south for a couple of dozen KM. I would suggest that might make more sense than anything else if you wanted to cover some ground.

But, lets be honest, all we're really doing is guessing. If we knew all the plans, it wouldn't be anywhere near as exciting

Doug

(PS - on the flip side, screw it - lets follow the thin ribbon of etched terrain E, then NE, the E, then S toward Ithaca that Ustrax suggested a long time ago. POinting SE and hitting 'go' would still be a bad idea)

[Stu]

I think it's pretty safe to say that I'm one of the most optimistic, rose-tinted-glasses-wearing, romantic rover-hugging members of the board, but even I can't put my hand on my heart and call for a road trip to Ithaca, because it seems to me that apart from all the technical, rover-in-peril related reasons already given - and they're all good reasons - there's one thing, one BIG thing, against it.

There's nothing to see there!

Take a look at this picture Ustrax posted back at the beginning of this thread...



... IF Oppy survived the trek to Ithaca, what would greet her there? Well, following Ustrax's route, she'd first come up against some Columbia-scale hills. Now, she's not going to climb those and look o'er the other side into the crater, is she? ( And even if she did what would lie ON the other side? A big, flat, featureless plate of a crater floor, that's what. ) So, she'd have to go "into" the crater from a bit further north... then what? It's a great big swathe of Meridiani, nothing more. True, there are some very impressive-looking mountains on the other side, but only impressive when seen from above; if you were walking alongside Oppy when she arrived at Ithaca, wouldn't those distant mountains just look like mere bumps on the horizon?

So, no sweeping vistas or jaw dropping panoramas at Ithaca. Good science then? Well, not for me to say, not being an expert, but surely Oppy couldn't study any rocks there at deeper levels than she's doing at Victoria? Or am I missing some outcrops on that image?

All in all, as much as it hurts the romantic poet in me, I have to say that, IMHO, Ithaca is a pretty poor target. Going there would be driving for driving's sake, with the risk of rolling to a sudden and juddering halt a dozen times each driving sol, leaving the rover - now a lander, essentially - stuck right on the corner of "no" and "where", with just the sky to stare up at and the distant horizon to glower at until she eventually died.

However... move her north, back to some of those smaller craters and features, and she could look for changes. Or keep her at Victoria, inside or outside - preferably outside - and even if she grinds to a halt she still has a lot to offer through monitoring changes in the vicinity, looking for frost or seismic events, checking for dust movement within the crater, etc etc...

I just don't think Ithaca is a realistic or useful target for our brave gal.