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Rest In Peace Uars
SolarSystemRubbl...
post Sep 22 2011, 08:45 PM
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QUOTE (PDP8E @ Sep 22 2011, 03:18 PM) *
...from the site cited in the last post:

Reentry Prediction:
Predicted Reentry Time: 23 SEP 2011 @ 22:07 UTC 9 hours

9 hours means 6 orbits
where are the perigee points? They are the most likely places where UARS starts to sink into the atmosphere


I would assume (and it's just an assumption) that it's at the the point of most likely reentry as shown on the map.
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Holder of the Tw...
post Sep 22 2011, 09:25 PM
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Here is one source ...

Space.com

Best to only read the story and ignore the comments.
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SolarSystemRubbl...
post Sep 22 2011, 09:56 PM
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QUOTE (Holder of the Two Leashes @ Sep 22 2011, 04:25 PM) *
Here is one source ...

Space.com

Best to only read the story and ignore the comments.



Well that's certainly far different than the map that I posted... We shall see.
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SolarSystemRubbl...
post Sep 22 2011, 10:00 PM
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BTW, the map has been updated with the latest orbital elements. It is now sept 24, on an orbit that crosses the US 20 minutes later.

Sept 24 0058 UTC +/- 7 hours (5 orbits). That's about 9PM EDT

http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html
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Floyd
post Sep 22 2011, 10:47 PM
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That is 9pm EDT on the 23rd (in US and Pacific target) 1 am 24th in UK. Time zones rolleyes.gif


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SolarSystemRubbl...
post Sep 22 2011, 11:42 PM
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QUOTE (Floyd @ Sep 22 2011, 05:47 PM) *
That is 9pm EDT on the 23rd (in US and Pacific target) 1 am 24th in UK. Time zones rolleyes.gif


Yeah thanx, I should have mentioned it's the 23rd evening in the US.
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MahFL
post Sep 23 2011, 03:38 AM
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Last info I read said it would NOT be over the USA......
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Explorer1
post Sep 23 2011, 04:11 AM
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South Pacific now:
http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html

(not too far from Mir back in 2001)
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SolarSystemRubbl...
post Sep 23 2011, 07:22 AM
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That's the same map I posted 6 hours earlier, it hasn't ben updated since. Besides the time is +/- 7 hours, so I wouldn't focus of any particular orbit yet.

BTW, I see a NOTAM has been issued...
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Explorer1
post Sep 23 2011, 04:54 PM
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Over the Sahara now. Still mostly empty areas.
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PDP8E
post Sep 23 2011, 08:45 PM
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http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html

the reentry point is now in Africa

it like 3 Card Monty !


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CLA CLL
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Floyd
post Sep 23 2011, 08:53 PM
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I don't know if aero.org does any independent analysis or just works off of http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/index.html. Unfortunately they have not updated from report #10 at 10:45 am EDT this morning. Maybe they are waiting until one orbit left to post...


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Silmfeanor
post Sep 24 2011, 01:10 AM
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First post ! biggrin.gif

The latest info -
145 x 150 km, 56.9 (Epoch Sep 23)
Reentry expected in the next 2-4 hours!
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SolarSystemRubbl...
post Sep 24 2011, 02:43 AM
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Just some more details...

Latest update as of 2215 UTC, demise is ~ 7 hours away (3 hours now), and the US is finally off the table.

Orbit at that time (about 4 hours ago) was 145 x 150 km (90 x 93 mi). Down 17 and 20 km in the preceeding 12 hours.

Estimated crash time is 0510 UTC Sept 24 +/- 2 hours, over the very south Pacific west of Australia, although the earlier and later orbits include Canada, Africa and Australia of the landmasses.

MW
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ElkGroveDan
post Sep 24 2011, 04:45 AM
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It should be down by now, or very soon.

QUOTE
UARS Updates

Update #12
Fri, 23 Sep 2011 07:50:07 PM PDT

As of 10:30 p.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 85 miles by 90 miles (135 km by 140 km). Re-entry is expected between 11:45 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, and 12:45 a.m., Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time (3:45 a.m. to 4:45 a.m. GMT). During that time period, the satellite will be passing over Canada and Africa, as well as vast areas of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans. The risk to public safety is very remote.



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If Occam had heard my theory, things would be very different now.
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