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When Will Oppy Be Free
alan
post May 18 2005, 04:29 AM
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Place your bets. When will Oppy be free of this dune. Pick the sol when all of the wheels are out of the trench and on top of the soil.
I'll start by picking sol 490
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dot.dk
post May 18 2005, 04:51 AM
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I don't think (hope) it will take 23 SOLS to get out of this! ohmy.gif

I will say in about a week we will be free. So I bet we are free on SOL 474 smile.gif

The winner get's a Mars bar right? cool.gif


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CosmicRocker
post May 18 2005, 06:09 AM
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Good idea, but I was hoping we'd get another sol or two before having to hazard a guess. ohmy.gif I think we may need to better define the conditions where we would all agree Opportunity is mostly moving freely. May I suggest a progress ratio of 1 unit of length of actual movement per 2 units of length of driving attempt?

I totally lost out on the Titan landing location poll because I got into that bet after all the good locations had already been chosen. I see that there are major risks when betting early, too.

However we define success, I'll pick sol 480, and take my chances. (I'm really tempted to guess it will be sooner than that, but I am sticking with 480.)


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dvandorn
post May 18 2005, 07:20 AM
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I'll say Sol 479, but that we won't drive very far (less than 20 meters) from the "free" spot for another three to five sols after that.

-the other Doug


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chris
post May 18 2005, 09:19 AM
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482 for me

Chris
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djellison
post May 18 2005, 09:35 AM
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I'm going to be brave, and out of character is predicting ahead of most people - and say that oppy will be up and out of the trench on onto the surface properly by Sol 475

Doug
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TheChemist
post May 18 2005, 09:39 AM
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I 'll put my bet on Sol 476, thank you... smile.gif

By the way, no official announcement of the Titan landing poll yet dry.gif
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ustrax
post May 18 2005, 09:42 AM
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wheel.gif 477 wheel.gif


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djellison
post May 18 2005, 10:00 AM
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QUOTE (TheChemist @ May 18 2005, 09:39 AM)
By the way, no official announcement of the Titan landing poll yet  dry.gif
*


I'm still waiting for some papers or announcements from the Huyg team to wrap that one up smile.gif

Doug
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Tman
post May 18 2005, 10:16 AM
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Is sol 483 still free? Ok! My vote sol 483 in terms of an average of 3 meters wheel turns per sol.


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OWW
post May 18 2005, 11:59 AM
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I think it will be sol 485.

But actually I'm more interested in when Opp will reach the 'real' etched terrain, now that the dunes prove to be such a pain. How many meters left to go?
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mike
post May 18 2005, 05:11 PM
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I say sol 470.
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alan
post May 18 2005, 06:13 PM
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A quick analysis of the bets so far (best to do this before most of the options are taken) with 11 bets in we have an average of 479, the earliest is 470 (mike) latest is 490 (me)
It seems I'm the most pessimistic here, hope I'm wrong.
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garybeau
post May 18 2005, 06:29 PM
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I'm going to go with Sol 486. I don't want to be too pessimistic, but things never go as quick as I would like to see. Plus, all the good numbers are used up. smile.gif

Gary
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RNeuhaus
post May 18 2005, 07:11 PM
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My guess is that Opportunity will be free of sand stuck by sun 491. On the other words, that is when Opportunity has reached at a point which it will turn on the other way.

Rodolfo rolleyes.gif
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