IPB

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

13 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
Asteroid on track for possible Mars hit, 1 in 75 chance on January 30th
rogelio
post Dec 21 2007, 12:59 AM
Post #1


Junior Member
**

Group: Members
Posts: 59
Joined: 25-December 05
From: Stevens Point, Wisconsin, USA
Member No.: 619



http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci...=la-home-center
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stevesliva
post Dec 21 2007, 01:17 AM
Post #2


Senior Member
****

Group: Members
Posts: 1574
Joined: 14-October 05
From: Vermont
Member No.: 530



No way! That's nuts.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
nprev
post Dec 21 2007, 01:40 AM
Post #3


Merciless Robot
****

Group: Admin
Posts: 8782
Joined: 8-December 05
From: Los Angeles
Member No.: 602



Oh, boy!!! smile.gif If it hits, I wonder where...can't decide if one of the polar areas or one of ME's putative glacial areas would be more interesting... wink.gif


--------------------
A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
slinted
post Dec 21 2007, 01:53 AM
Post #4


Member
***

Group: Admin
Posts: 468
Joined: 11-February 04
From: USA
Member No.: 21



The story has been updated with the correct date for the potential encounter, Jan 30th.

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007+WD5&orb=1 , set to Jan 30th, centered on Mars and zoomed in looks pretty exciting.

edit: The JPL Horizons system puts closest approach at 2008-Jan-30 09:10 at a distance of 51,722 km from the center of Mars (which is obviously too accurate considering the +/- in the asteroid's ephemeris)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Tom Tamlyn
post Dec 21 2007, 01:56 AM
Post #5


Member
***

Group: Members
Posts: 440
Joined: 1-July 05
From: New York City
Member No.: 424



In the "funny coincidence" department, the Q&A section of the November/December issue of The Planetary Report contains a question on this very issue, namely the chances of a large object colliding with Mars in the near future. The interesting response is by Steve Chesley of JPL, who discussed the difficulties involved in tracking what he called "Mars Hazardous Asteroids" with the equipment currently available.

TTT
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
tasp
post Dec 21 2007, 04:24 AM
Post #6


Member
***

Group: Members
Posts: 903
Joined: 30-January 05
Member No.: 162



I think we need to generously apportion accolades to any active Mars mission team that manages to scan, image, probe, detect, sense or delve this rock with their spacecraft.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SteveM
post Dec 21 2007, 04:34 AM
Post #7


Member
***

Group: Members
Posts: 267
Joined: 5-February 06
Member No.: 675



Checks on the current values in the JPL Horizon ephemeris at the Spirit and Opportunity sites indicate that it will be daytime at the Opportunity site at the time of closest approach of 2007 WD5, while it will be night at Spirit. At both sites the asteroid will be below the horizon at closest approach, but it will be above the horizon shortly thereafter at Spirit's site. Here are the Spirit results:
CODE


Date__(UT)__HR:MN R.A._(ICRF/J2000.0)_DEC Azi_(a-appr)_Elev APmag delta deldot


2008-Jan-30 09:11 01 15 23.28 +09 29 53.5 293.7580 -7.2526 11.16 .000347890218913 -0.4028331
2008-Jan-30 09:12 01 18 27.24 +09 50 57.9 293.7388 -6.6357 11.12 .000347765220082 -0.2203989
2008-Jan-30 09:13 01 21 31.69 +10 11 56.9 293.7171 -6.0183 11.09 .000347713435926 -0.0377873
2008-Jan-30 09:14 01 24 36.58 +10 32 49.7 293.6929 -5.4008 11.06 .000347734914938 0.1448863
2008-Jan-30 09:15 01 27 41.83 +10 53 35.4 293.6662 -4.7835 11.03 .000347829658025 0.3275060
2008-Jan-30 09:16 01 30 47.39 +11 14 13.4 293.6371 -4.1668 11.00 .000347997620976 0.5099566
2008-Jan-30 09:17 01 33 53.18 +11 34 42.8 293.6054 -3.5510 10.97 .000348238712257 0.6921231
2008-Jan-30 09:18 01 36 59.14 +11 55 03.0 293.5713 -2.9365 10.94 .000348552794951 0.8738916
2008-Jan-30 09:19 01 40 05.19 +12 15 13.3 293.5348 -2.3236 10.91 .000348939686995 1.0551493
2008-Jan-30 09:20 01 43 11.29 +12 35 13.0 293.4959 -1.7127 10.88 .000349399160625 1.2357853
2008-Jan-30 09:21 01 46 17.34 +12 55 01.4 293.4545 -1.1041 10.85 .000349930944870 1.4156906
2008-Jan-30 09:22 01 49 23.30 +13 14 37.8 293.4107 -0.4982 10.83 .000350534724486 1.5947582

2008-Jan-30 09:23 r 01 52 29.08 +13 34 01.7 293.3646 0.1048 10.80 .000351210142900 1.7728841

2008-Jan-30 09:24 01 55 34.63 +13 53 12.5 293.3161 0.7044 10.78 .000351956801419 1.9499668
2008-Jan-30 09:25 01 58 39.87 +14 12 09.5 293.2652 1.3004 10.76 .000352774261731 2.1259081
2008-Jan-30 09:26 02 01 44.74 +14 30 52.4 293.2121 1.8925 10.73 .000353662047016 2.3006133
2008-Jan-30 09:27 02 04 49.18 +14 49 20.5 293.1566 2.4804 10.71 .000354619642510 2.4739909
2008-Jan-30 09:28 02 07 53.12 +15 07 33.5 293.0989 3.0637 10.69 .000355646498321 2.6459536
2008-Jan-30 09:29 02 10 56.50 +15 25 30.8 293.0389 3.6423 10.67 .000356742029509 2.8164178
2008-Jan-30 09:30 02 13 59.26 +15 43 12.2 292.9768 4.2158 10.65 .000357905619227 2.9853041



Note that the asteroid will be rising in the West at about 293. Of course, the details will change as the ephemeris is updated.

Steve M
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SteveM
post Dec 21 2007, 04:44 AM
Post #8


Member
***

Group: Members
Posts: 267
Joined: 5-February 06
Member No.: 675



Here's the observational ephemeris from the Opportunity site. Note the asterisk indicating the Sun is above the horizon, and the x indicating the brightest interfering body (Phobos) is above the horizon.
CODE
Date__(UT)__HR:MN R.A._(ICRF/J2000.0)_DEC Azi_(a-appr)_Elev APmag delta deldot

2008-Jan-30 08:46 *x 00 27 42.40 +04 09 49.2 62.7359 6.6904 11.84 .000362743392784 -3.6132119
2008-Jan-30 08:47 *x 00 30 26.68 +04 31 02.6 62.8366 6.1478 11.79 .000361326476080 -3.4514578
2008-Jan-30 08:48 *x 00 33 12.37 +04 52 23.2 62.9406 5.5997 11.74 .000359974811601 -3.2878687
2008-Jan-30 08:49 *x 00 35 59.44 +05 13 50.6 63.0478 5.0466 11.70 .000358689122027 -3.1225070
2008-Jan-30 08:50 *x 00 38 47.87 +05 35 24.0 63.1582 4.4885 11.65 .000357470106030 -2.9554397
2008-Jan-30 08:51 *x 00 41 37.61 +05 57 03.0 63.2719 3.9258 11.61 .000356318432869 -2.7867378
2008-Jan-30 08:52 *x 00 44 28.63 +06 18 46.6 63.3888 3.3586 11.56 .000355234743186 -2.6164768
2008-Jan-30 08:53 *x 00 47 20.89 +06 40 34.4 63.5089 2.7874 11.52 .000354219647010 -2.4447365
2008-Jan-30 08:54 *x 00 50 14.35 +07 02 25.5 63.6323 2.2123 11.48 .000353273720220 -2.2716007
2008-Jan-30 08:55 *x 00 53 08.98 +07 24 19.2 63.7588 1.6337 11.44 .000352397505902 -2.0971568
2008-Jan-30 08:56 *x 00 56 04.71 +07 46 14.8 63.8885 1.0518 11.40 .000351591509798 -1.9214965
2008-Jan-30 08:57 *x 00 59 01.52 +08 08 11.5 64.0213 0.4669 11.36 .000350856200915 -1.7447145
2008-Jan-30 08:58 *s 01 01 59.34 +08 30 08.5 64.1573 -0.1206 11.32 .000350192009932 -1.5669092
2008-Jan-30 08:59 *x 01 04 58.13 +08 52 05.1 64.2965 -0.7104 11.28 .000349599326403 -1.3881819
2008-Jan-30 09:00 *x 01 07 57.84 +09 14 00.3 64.4386 -1.3022 11.24 .000349078499932 -1.2086367
2008-Jan-30 09:01 *x 01 10 58.40 +09 35 53.5 64.5839 -1.8956 11.20 .000348629836515 -1.0283802
2008-Jan-30 09:02 *x 01 13 59.77 +09 57 43.8 64.7322 -2.4903 11.17 .000348253600287 -0.8475213
2008-Jan-30 09:03 *x 01 17 01.89 +10 19 30.3 64.8835 -3.0860 11.13 .000347950010097 -0.6661708
2008-Jan-30 09:04 *x 01 20 04.69 +10 41 12.3 65.0378 -3.6823 11.10 .000347719240611 -0.4844409

Asteroid 2007 WD5 sets at azimuth 64 around 08:58.

Steve M
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
djellison
post Dec 21 2007, 09:05 AM
Post #9


Founder
****

Group: Chairman
Posts: 14430
Joined: 8-February 04
Member No.: 1



Forget it with Spirit - no where near enough power to get up early or stay up late to observe something like this. The best instruments would be OpNav, Marci or CTX on MRO.

Doug
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Guest_PhilCo126_*
post Dec 21 2007, 11:43 AM
Post #10





Guests






Anyway at those odds it won't probably happen and even if it did, it won't be visible for ground-based obseevatories: http://www.badastronomy.com/bablog/
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
nprev
post Dec 21 2007, 12:07 PM
Post #11


Merciless Robot
****

Group: Admin
Posts: 8782
Joined: 8-December 05
From: Los Angeles
Member No.: 602



Yeah, 1 in 75 isn't great...but here's hoping for some serious luck!!! We have 3 active orbiters; there's never been a better time in history for this to happen!

I'm not as interested in seeing the actual impact itself as I am in seeing the resultant crater, which would be strong enough to expose some deeply buried materials that could be studied before the ubiquitous dust coats them...


--------------------
A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SteveM
post Dec 21 2007, 01:48 PM
Post #12


Member
***

Group: Members
Posts: 267
Joined: 5-February 06
Member No.: 675



QUOTE (djellison @ Dec 21 2007, 04:05 AM) *
Forget it with Spirit - no where near enough power to get up early or stay up late to observe something like this. The best instruments would be OpNav, Marci or CTX on MRO.

Doug

Agreed, and with an apparent magnitude of around 11.5, it would be pushing the limits of the rovers even at their prime. Of course, if it came a bit closer it would be somewhat brighter, and if it impacted it would get very bright. rolleyes.gif

Steve M
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SteveM
post Dec 21 2007, 02:08 PM
Post #13


Member
***

Group: Members
Posts: 267
Joined: 5-February 06
Member No.: 675



The ephemeris is likely to change, as it's only based on 25 observations spanning 29 days.

Steve M
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ElkGroveDan
post Dec 21 2007, 03:56 PM
Post #14


Senior Member
****

Group: Admin
Posts: 4763
Joined: 15-March 05
From: Glendale, AZ
Member No.: 197



QUOTE (nprev @ Dec 21 2007, 04:07 AM) *
I'm not as interested in seeing the actual impact itself as I am in seeing the resultant crater, which would be strong enough to expose some deeply buried materials that could be studied before the ubiquitous dust coats them...

I guess that would open up another round of MSL landing site discussions wouldn't it?


--------------------
If Occam had heard my theory, things would be very different now.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
centsworth_II
post Dec 21 2007, 03:57 PM
Post #15


Senior Member
****

Group: Members
Posts: 2172
Joined: 28-December 04
From: Florida, USA
Member No.: 132



QUOTE (nprev @ Dec 21 2007, 07:07 AM) *
... the resultant crater, which would be strong enough to expose some deeply buried materials...

Maybe an ice/water table! Imagine a crater filling with boiling, steaming water!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

13 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic

 



RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 3rd March 2024 - 01:22 PM
RULES AND GUIDELINES
Please read the Forum Rules and Guidelines before posting.

IMAGE COPYRIGHT
Images posted on UnmannedSpaceflight.com may be copyrighted. Do not reproduce without permission. Read here for further information on space images and copyright.

OPINIONS AND MODERATION
Opinions expressed on UnmannedSpaceflight.com are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of UnmannedSpaceflight.com or The Planetary Society. The all-volunteer UnmannedSpaceflight.com moderation team is wholly independent of The Planetary Society. The Planetary Society has no influence over decisions made by the UnmannedSpaceflight.com moderators.
SUPPORT THE FORUM
Unmannedspaceflight.com is funded by the Planetary Society. Please consider supporting our work and many other projects by donating to the Society or becoming a member.