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Asteroid on track for possible Mars hit, 1 in 75 chance on January 30th

rogelio View Member Profile	Dec 21 2007, 12:59 AM Post #1
Junior Member Group: Members Posts: 59 Joined: 25-December 05 From: Stevens Point, Wisconsin, USA Member No.: 619	http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-sci...=la-home-center

stevesliva View Member Profile	Dec 21 2007, 01:17 AM Post #2
Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 1587 Joined: 14-October 05 From: Vermont Member No.: 530	No way! That's nuts.

nprev View Member Profile	Dec 21 2007, 01:40 AM Post #3
Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8785 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602	Oh, boy!!! If it hits, I wonder where...can't decide if one of the polar areas or one of ME's putative glacial areas would be more interesting... -------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.

slinted View Member Profile	Dec 21 2007, 01:53 AM Post #4
Member Group: Admin Posts: 468 Joined: 11-February 04 From: USA Member No.: 21	The story has been updated with the correct date for the potential encounter, Jan 30th. http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2007+WD5&orb=1 , set to Jan 30th, centered on Mars and zoomed in looks pretty exciting. edit: The JPL Horizons system puts closest approach at 2008-Jan-30 09:10 at a distance of 51,722 km from the center of Mars (which is obviously too accurate considering the +/- in the asteroid's ephemeris)

Tom Tamlyn View Member Profile	Dec 21 2007, 01:56 AM Post #5
Member Group: Members Posts: 447 Joined: 1-July 05 From: New York City Member No.: 424	In the "funny coincidence" department, the Q&A section of the November/December issue of The Planetary Report contains a question on this very issue, namely the chances of a large object colliding with Mars in the near future. The interesting response is by Steve Chesley of JPL, who discussed the difficulties involved in tracking what he called "Mars Hazardous Asteroids" with the equipment currently available. TTT

tasp View Member Profile	Dec 21 2007, 04:24 AM Post #6
Member Group: Members Posts: 903 Joined: 30-January 05 Member No.: 162	I think we need to generously apportion accolades to any active Mars mission team that manages to scan, image, probe, detect, sense or delve this rock with their spacecraft.

SteveM View Member Profile	Dec 21 2007, 04:34 AM Post #7
Member Group: Members Posts: 267 Joined: 5-February 06 Member No.: 675	Checks on the current values in the JPL Horizon ephemeris at the Spirit and Opportunity sites indicate that it will be daytime at the Opportunity site at the time of closest approach of 2007 WD5, while it will be night at Spirit. At both sites the asteroid will be below the horizon at closest approach, but it will be above the horizon shortly thereafter at Spirit's site. Here are the Spirit results: CODE Date__(UT)__HR:MN R.A._(ICRF/J2000.0)_DEC Azi_(a-appr)_Elev APmag delta deldot 2008-Jan-30 09:11 01 15 23.28 +09 29 53.5 293.7580 -7.2526 11.16 .000347890218913 -0.4028331 2008-Jan-30 09:12 01 18 27.24 +09 50 57.9 293.7388 -6.6357 11.12 .000347765220082 -0.2203989 2008-Jan-30 09:13 01 21 31.69 +10 11 56.9 293.7171 -6.0183 11.09 .000347713435926 -0.0377873 2008-Jan-30 09:14 01 24 36.58 +10 32 49.7 293.6929 -5.4008 11.06 .000347734914938 0.1448863 2008-Jan-30 09:15 01 27 41.83 +10 53 35.4 293.6662 -4.7835 11.03 .000347829658025 0.3275060 2008-Jan-30 09:16 01 30 47.39 +11 14 13.4 293.6371 -4.1668 11.00 .000347997620976 0.5099566 2008-Jan-30 09:17 01 33 53.18 +11 34 42.8 293.6054 -3.5510 10.97 .000348238712257 0.6921231 2008-Jan-30 09:18 01 36 59.14 +11 55 03.0 293.5713 -2.9365 10.94 .000348552794951 0.8738916 2008-Jan-30 09:19 01 40 05.19 +12 15 13.3 293.5348 -2.3236 10.91 .000348939686995 1.0551493 2008-Jan-30 09:20 01 43 11.29 +12 35 13.0 293.4959 -1.7127 10.88 .000349399160625 1.2357853 2008-Jan-30 09:21 01 46 17.34 +12 55 01.4 293.4545 -1.1041 10.85 .000349930944870 1.4156906 2008-Jan-30 09:22 01 49 23.30 +13 14 37.8 293.4107 -0.4982 10.83 .000350534724486 1.5947582 2008-Jan-30 09:23 r 01 52 29.08 +13 34 01.7 293.3646 0.1048 10.80 .000351210142900 1.7728841 2008-Jan-30 09:24 01 55 34.63 +13 53 12.5 293.3161 0.7044 10.78 .000351956801419 1.9499668 2008-Jan-30 09:25 01 58 39.87 +14 12 09.5 293.2652 1.3004 10.76 .000352774261731 2.1259081 2008-Jan-30 09:26 02 01 44.74 +14 30 52.4 293.2121 1.8925 10.73 .000353662047016 2.3006133 2008-Jan-30 09:27 02 04 49.18 +14 49 20.5 293.1566 2.4804 10.71 .000354619642510 2.4739909 2008-Jan-30 09:28 02 07 53.12 +15 07 33.5 293.0989 3.0637 10.69 .000355646498321 2.6459536 2008-Jan-30 09:29 02 10 56.50 +15 25 30.8 293.0389 3.6423 10.67 .000356742029509 2.8164178 2008-Jan-30 09:30 02 13 59.26 +15 43 12.2 292.9768 4.2158 10.65 .000357905619227 2.9853041 Note that the asteroid will be rising in the West at about 293°. Of course, the details will change as the ephemeris is updated. Steve M

SteveM View Member Profile	Dec 21 2007, 04:44 AM Post #8
Member Group: Members Posts: 267 Joined: 5-February 06 Member No.: 675	Here's the observational ephemeris from the Opportunity site. Note the asterisk indicating the Sun is above the horizon, and the x indicating the brightest interfering body (Phobos) is above the horizon. CODE Date__(UT)__HR:MN R.A._(ICRF/J2000.0)_DEC Azi_(a-appr)_Elev APmag delta deldot 2008-Jan-30 08:46 x 00 27 42.40 +04 09 49.2 62.7359 6.6904 11.84 .000362743392784 -3.6132119 2008-Jan-30 08:47 x 00 30 26.68 +04 31 02.6 62.8366 6.1478 11.79 .000361326476080 -3.4514578 2008-Jan-30 08:48 x 00 33 12.37 +04 52 23.2 62.9406 5.5997 11.74 .000359974811601 -3.2878687 2008-Jan-30 08:49 x 00 35 59.44 +05 13 50.6 63.0478 5.0466 11.70 .000358689122027 -3.1225070 2008-Jan-30 08:50 x 00 38 47.87 +05 35 24.0 63.1582 4.4885 11.65 .000357470106030 -2.9554397 2008-Jan-30 08:51 x 00 41 37.61 +05 57 03.0 63.2719 3.9258 11.61 .000356318432869 -2.7867378 2008-Jan-30 08:52 x 00 44 28.63 +06 18 46.6 63.3888 3.3586 11.56 .000355234743186 -2.6164768 2008-Jan-30 08:53 x 00 47 20.89 +06 40 34.4 63.5089 2.7874 11.52 .000354219647010 -2.4447365 2008-Jan-30 08:54 x 00 50 14.35 +07 02 25.5 63.6323 2.2123 11.48 .000353273720220 -2.2716007 2008-Jan-30 08:55 x 00 53 08.98 +07 24 19.2 63.7588 1.6337 11.44 .000352397505902 -2.0971568 2008-Jan-30 08:56 x 00 56 04.71 +07 46 14.8 63.8885 1.0518 11.40 .000351591509798 -1.9214965 2008-Jan-30 08:57 x 00 59 01.52 +08 08 11.5 64.0213 0.4669 11.36 .000350856200915 -1.7447145 2008-Jan-30 08:58 s 01 01 59.34 +08 30 08.5 64.1573 -0.1206 11.32 .000350192009932 -1.5669092 2008-Jan-30 08:59 x 01 04 58.13 +08 52 05.1 64.2965 -0.7104 11.28 .000349599326403 -1.3881819 2008-Jan-30 09:00 x 01 07 57.84 +09 14 00.3 64.4386 -1.3022 11.24 .000349078499932 -1.2086367 2008-Jan-30 09:01 x 01 10 58.40 +09 35 53.5 64.5839 -1.8956 11.20 .000348629836515 -1.0283802 2008-Jan-30 09:02 x 01 13 59.77 +09 57 43.8 64.7322 -2.4903 11.17 .000348253600287 -0.8475213 2008-Jan-30 09:03 x 01 17 01.89 +10 19 30.3 64.8835 -3.0860 11.13 .000347950010097 -0.6661708 2008-Jan-30 09:04 *x 01 20 04.69 +10 41 12.3 65.0378 -3.6823 11.10 .000347719240611 -0.4844409 Asteroid 2007 WD5 sets at azimuth 64° around 08:58. Steve M

djellison View Member Profile	Dec 21 2007, 09:05 AM Post #9
Founder Group: Chairman Posts: 14434 Joined: 8-February 04 Member No.: 1	Forget it with Spirit - no where near enough power to get up early or stay up late to observe something like this. The best instruments would be OpNav, Marci or CTX on MRO. Doug

Guest_PhilCo126_*	Dec 21 2007, 11:43 AM Post #10
Guests	Anyway at those odds it won't probably happen and even if it did, it won't be visible for ground-based obseevatories: http://www.badastronomy.com/bablog/

nprev View Member Profile	Dec 21 2007, 12:07 PM Post #11
Merciless Robot Group: Admin Posts: 8785 Joined: 8-December 05 From: Los Angeles Member No.: 602	Yeah, 1 in 75 isn't great...but here's hoping for some serious luck!!! We have 3 active orbiters; there's never been a better time in history for this to happen! I'm not as interested in seeing the actual impact itself as I am in seeing the resultant crater, which would be strong enough to expose some deeply buried materials that could be studied before the ubiquitous dust coats them... -------------------- A few will take this knowledge and use this power of a dream realized as a force for change, an impetus for further discovery to make less ancient dreams real.

SteveM View Member Profile	Dec 21 2007, 01:48 PM Post #12
Member Group: Members Posts: 267 Joined: 5-February 06 Member No.: 675	QUOTE (djellison @ Dec 21 2007, 04:05 AM) Forget it with Spirit - no where near enough power to get up early or stay up late to observe something like this. The best instruments would be OpNav, Marci or CTX on MRO. Doug Agreed, and with an apparent magnitude of around 11.5, it would be pushing the limits of the rovers even at their prime. Of course, if it came a bit closer it would be somewhat brighter, and if it impacted it would get very bright. Steve M

SteveM View Member Profile	Dec 21 2007, 02:08 PM Post #13
Member Group: Members Posts: 267 Joined: 5-February 06 Member No.: 675	The ephemeris is likely to change, as it's only based on 25 observations spanning 29 days. Steve M

ElkGroveDan View Member Profile	Dec 21 2007, 03:56 PM Post #14
Senior Member Group: Admin Posts: 4763 Joined: 15-March 05 From: Glendale, AZ Member No.: 197	QUOTE (nprev @ Dec 21 2007, 04:07 AM) I'm not as interested in seeing the actual impact itself as I am in seeing the resultant crater, which would be strong enough to expose some deeply buried materials that could be studied before the ubiquitous dust coats them... I guess that would open up another round of MSL landing site discussions wouldn't it? -------------------- If Occam had heard my theory, things would be very different now.

centsworth_II View Member Profile	Dec 21 2007, 03:57 PM Post #15
Senior Member Group: Members Posts: 2173 Joined: 28-December 04 From: Florida, USA Member No.: 132	QUOTE (nprev @ Dec 21 2007, 07:07 AM) ... the resultant crater, which would be strong enough to expose some deeply buried materials... Maybe an ice/water table! Imagine a crater filling with boiling, steaming water!

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