Return To Flight - Sts-114 Options

[Guest_Analyst_*]

Contrary to all earlier reports of on pad processing going well, NASA delayed STS-114 two months to July, the next launch window. It took them 2 years and 8 months after Challenger, and now we are close to that number. Will they ever leave the ground? I understand they are very careful, but their will ALWAYS risk. Will we ever leave LEO again (manned) with this attitude?

www.nasawatch.com

[OWW]

From the press release: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/content/?id=37

"The long-awaited Return to Flight of NASA's Space Shuttle fleet has been delayed until at least July "

Note that they use the words 'at least'.

"The list of issues was headed by the recently completed DVR analysis, showing around 170 potential debris sources on the new ET"

Ok....WHAT have you guys been doing for the last two years hmmm? Sad, just sad.
I thought the ET always sheds some debris, so when is the risk acceptable enough to fly again?. If this goes on like this, maybe never. After all, they want to go to the moon, but flying a shuttle to the hubble is too risky...

[Marcel]

From the press release: http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/content/?id=37

"The long-awaited Return to Flight of NASA's Space Shuttle fleet has been delayed until at least July "

Note that they use the words 'at least'. 

"The list of issues was headed by the recently completed DVR analysis, showing around 170 potential debris sources on the new ET"

Ok....WHAT have you guys been doing for the last two years hmmm? Sad, just sad.
I thought the ET always sheds some debris, so when is the risk acceptable enough to fly again?. If this goes on like this, maybe never. After all, they want to go to the moon, but flying a shuttle to the hubble is too risky...

Better know for sure, than taking risks unknown. It is sad, because we want to see it roar up again, but i don't want to see astronauts burn up again. I think they should take all the time they need and GO when THEY feel like. It's NASA that has to make this thing fly again. It's NASA that will loose it's last bit of (public and political) credit when a third shuttle will fail. Better know for sure (so you can show you've done everything to prevent loss) and have patience, than losing the shuttle (and the rest of the programm) simply, because we couldn't wait. Another shuttle disaster would be disastrous for manned spaceflight (it would delay next steps to the moon and mars muuuch more severely, than waiting some months now.....).

Let them wait. They surely have a good reason for it (they better )

And, if you know how to launch safely, it does not matter so much if it is into LEO, or beyond. Launch always will be the critical part.

[Guest_Analyst_*]

Launch always will be the critical part.

Or landing (wherever), or interplanetary cruise.
I stand by me opinion: This society, and so NASA as a part of it, is extremly risk adverse. But we can't reassure ourselves 100%. What is acceptable, 99%, 99.9% or 99.99999%?

[Marcel]

Launch always will be the critical part.

Or landing (wherever), or interplanetary cruise.
I stand by me opinion: This society, and so NASA as a part of it, is extremly risk adverse. But we can't reassure ourselves 100%. What is acceptable, 99%, 99.9% or 99.99999%?

As a MoSHE (manager of safety, health and environment) i deal with risks daily. What i see, is the contrary of what you say. People (including myself) are bad at estimating risks and most of the time, they don't do it at all. We simply don't have a good sense for it. Therefore, you need to take extra care, in order to get to the level of acceptable risk. And a lot of times, this is NOT what people do. They think everything is fine, and in the end, most risks were not taken into account, most of the time not noticed because it simply did not end up in an accident. Not because it's prevented, but because stochasm did not make it happen. A lot of times people are lucky because of that.

Spaceshuttles seem to end up in pieces and a fireball more than once. If you decide that you want to fly the thing again, at least you have to show everyone, that you have tried as hard as you can to take everything into account. And this takes time. A lot of it.

Don't think that i don't understand what you mean. I do. At a certain level of safety one should accept the rest risk. But considering the spaceshuttle, too much has happened. It's not only rocket science, it also became politics. Statistics leaves us with a 96 % chance, considering launching a rocket into space succesfully. That is a 4 % of total loss expectancy. No enterprise in the public or private sector will ever get away with that. NASA will (simply because launching a spacecraft is risky), but they have to show that they did everything to minimize the risk.

[cIclops]

STS-114 launch delayed two months due to icing problems on fuel lines and other technical issues. Next launch window opens mid July.

Griffin also announced that preparatory work on a Hubble servicing mission will begin.

(source NASA Press conference, April 29)

[gpurcell]

STS-114 launch delayed two months due to icing problems on fuel lines and other technical issues. Next launch window opens mid July.

Griffin also announced that preparatory work on a Hubble servicing mission will begin.

(source NASA Press conference, April 29)

So now we can only launch STS during the day, in the summer in Florida.

Sigh.

[MahFL]

STS-114 launch delayed two months due to icing problems on fuel lines and other technical issues. Next launch window opens mid July.

Griffin also announced that preparatory work on a Hubble servicing mission will begin.

(source NASA Press conference, April 29)

So now we can only launch STS during the day, in the summer in Florida.

Sigh.

Thats not correct, the first 2 launches are to be in daylight to see what the debris shedding is like, ice will form on the O2 pipes in summer or winter (they are going to try heaters on them to prevent this.)

[jaredGalen]

Cripes, hope hurricane Dennis doesn't scupper rtf plans and result in a rollback.
After getting this close to the launch window it would be terrible.

Hopefully it'll keep heading west.

[jaredGalen]

The outlook is getting a bit better.
Forecast winds are in the 40 - 50 knot range which apparently is acceptable.

Fingers remaining crossed all the same.

[alan]

Countdown starts July 10 for launch on the 13th
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/news/r...2005/54-05.html

[jaredGalen]

Yesterday, they started preperations for a rollback. They started disconnecting the ordinance, I guess the explosives for seperating the SRB's and things.

After a meeting the preperation were suspended. It's pretty unlikely there will be a rollback at this stage.

Hope the weather says right.

[Guest_Analyst_*]

Looks like a rollback is not needed, the storm is heading more to the west:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...1832.shtml?3day

[Guest_Analyst_*]

Now it's official - no rollback.