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Unmanned Spaceflight.com _ Opportunity _ After Victoria...

Posted by: Stu May 28 2007, 02:07 PM

I know we've had rather light-hearted discussions about this before, with most people agreeing that Oppy is likely to end her days inside or on the edge of Victoria Crater, simply because there's nothing else to investigate within reach, but has Steve S got it in his mind that Oppy will head off somewhere else after Victoria? http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/05/27/205298.aspx could be read in a way that suggests that... huh.gif

Posted by: Sunspot May 28 2007, 02:30 PM

But isn't the nearest feature of any significance about 20km away? Much more than Opportunities total driving distance so far?

Posted by: ustrax May 28 2007, 02:35 PM

"We're going to do a lot of good science, and then we're going to come out again and keep going forward."

http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?showtopic=3215 biggrin.gif biggrin.gif

Posted by: fredk May 28 2007, 03:28 PM

It's hard to conclude much at all from those pitiful few crumbs tossed at the feet of us Squyres-starved disciples. Give us more... we need more... wacko.gif blink.gif

More seriously, we had some clues from http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?showtopic=4130 a little while ago that Erubus could be a return target.

Posted by: PhilHorzempa May 28 2007, 03:35 PM

As prep work, it would be nice to see HiRISE images of the West Rim of
the Big Crater. Then one could ascertain whether layers are exposed or
are covered by dust.


Another Phil

Posted by: Oren Iishi May 28 2007, 03:47 PM

[quote name='Sunspot' date='May 28 2007, 02:30 PM' post='91018']
But isn't the nearest feature of any significance about 20km away? Much more than Opportunities total driving distance so far?
[/quo

So pessimistic, 20Km no problem! At some point the exploration of Victoria crater will start to result in diminishing returns. The solar power levels don't seem to be an issue due to the recent cleaning events. In addition, there are sure to be some interesting scientific areas along to route. The hardware seems to be in good shape and I think they should ride this rover til she drops. Also, Spirits seems to be on its last legs and they could allocate those funds for one last push for Oppy.

Posted by: ustrax May 28 2007, 03:58 PM

QUOTE (fredk @ May 28 2007, 04:28 PM) *
More seriously, we had some clues from http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?showtopic=4130 a little while ago that Erubus could be a return target.


If my sense of orientation isn't failing, Erebus isn't http://i16.photobucket.com/albums/b14/ustrax3/ithaca1.jpg... wink.gif

Posted by: djellison May 28 2007, 05:03 PM

Scientifically it could be. Two, three or more years of sand dunes wouldn't be. Look at HiRISE imagery to the East of Victoria. It's like the worst days of the drive south from Endurance - the area around Jame Caird, Viking and Voyager - an utter driving nightmare made even worse by the fact they would be trying to drive across all the dunes, not along their length..

Unless I see images of that very large crater to the ESE making an EXCELLENT case for going there and HiRISE images documenting the entire route showing it to be in any way feasable - I can see no point in trying to get there when all current indicators suggest it would be a not much more than a suicide mission into a dune field we would never leave.

Doug

Posted by: MarsIsImportant May 28 2007, 05:07 PM

Ustrax, I believe the bottom image is a stretched view toward the South. And I believe the satellite image has South toward the bottom. So Ulysses Palace should be on the right, not the left as shown. Did you reverse the rover image? Because if you did not, then you have the lables in reverse. H cannot be H and A cannot be A; rather, H is A and A is H and so forth. Did you reverse that image? Regardless the orientation of the perspective is confusing the way it is shown.

Posted by: tuvas May 28 2007, 05:18 PM

During the last HiRISE team meeting, I think it was February, I had the chance to talk with Steve Squires about the future of the rovers. While some things have definitely changed since then (he had told me that Opportunity was likely to enter the then unnamed bay now called Valley without Peril, at a time that would be about a month ago), he had told me then that they are looking for a future target. There is the big crater down to the south, but there are also a few other possibilities, including an outcropping to the west, and a few other areas in the general vicinity. As to which of these will be the final target is still being debated. In fact, there might still be a third as-of-yet unknown place where it might go.

But there are a few things that are going on now that Opportunity didn't have while going to Victoria. First of all, it's faster than it was at the very beginning. Secondly, it's smarter, the recent updates should help get it out of some situations. Lastly, the HiRISE camera could be used to map out the entire route in advance, allowing it to save time not getting stuck in problematic areas. So it is possible that the rover could make it even further than it already has, in possibly the same amount of time. There are several craters that look interesting from previous targets in the southern region. Still, it is a great debate, as to what should happen next.

Posted by: fredk May 28 2007, 06:31 PM

Thanks, tuvas, for tossing some very tasty nuggets our way!

I've been wondering how much of a role HiRISE might play in choosing a new target after Victoria (apart from assisting in driving, once a target is chosen). Is it practical to image the surroundings out to some potentially rovable distance, several kilometres say? Are there any plans to do this? Or is the lower-res MGS imagery sufficient to ID good targets?

Posted by: tuvas May 28 2007, 06:47 PM

Oh, I have no doubt that before a target is chosen, that HiRISE will not only photograph the potential target, but probably most of the route. As to plans to photograph, well, I really don't know of any, but I don't hang around with the uplink folks that much.

Posted by: David May 28 2007, 09:37 PM

It wasn't even possible to have a serious discussion about this question just months ago; heck, I remember a time when even getting to Victoria was absurd, an aspiration rather than a serious goal.

Just to be able to envision going on beyond Victoria illustrates how much these rovers have exceeded expectations.

Posted by: nprev May 28 2007, 10:56 PM

Yes... smile.gif ... amazing that there's now concern over sharing S-band DTE channels as well!

MRO's mapping capability should greatly facilitate reaching a new target after Vicky, and that's how it should be; revisits should not be an option without truly compelling justification. The MERs' mobility is implicitly there to see as much of Mars as they can, so backtracking would seem to defeat this rather fundamental design paradigm.

Posted by: CosmicRocker May 29 2007, 12:39 AM

I was ready to say that Erebus is a valid future target, and even the most likely one, but that is a good point, nprev. But, returning to Erebus for more science that they know can be targeted requires mobility. too. At this point, I'm not going to guess what they will do. The MRO/Rover synergy probably changes everything.

Posted by: Bill Harris May 29 2007, 02:54 AM

Any future target will have to be down-section, away from Victoria's ejecta blanket. That route will give the best science.

--Bill

Posted by: dvandorn May 29 2007, 07:30 AM

I think we should look at the entirety of Steve's quote:

QUOTE
"Our adventure continues," he said. "We hope to travel to Duck Bay. If a careful safety review indicates that it's safe to go in, we're going to go in. We're going to do a lot of good science, and then we're going to come out again and keep going forward."


That statement doesn't necessarily mean that Steve thinks they'll be done at Victoria after they're done with Duck Bay. It just means that after they get everything they can from Duck Bay, they're planning on continuing with more observations -- in other words, they're not planning on entering at Duck Bay and ending the mission there. (I take that to mean that if they don't think they can get out, they won't go in. That's reinforced by the mention of a "careful safety review.")

Victoria has a lot more to offer, even after Duck Bay is explored. They've only traversed a third of the crater rim, after all, and there are interesting features counter-clockwise from Duck Bay, such as Bright (nee Sofi) crater and the apparently soil-stripped capes. There are also the Suspiciously Linear Features (SLFs) (take a bow, VP) in the east and southeast walls and floor.

Going forward doesn't necessarily mean leaving Victoria. There are many more things in and around Victoria they can (and likely will) take close looks at after they're done with Duck Bay.

-the other Doug

Posted by: ustrax May 29 2007, 08:05 AM

QUOTE (dvandorn @ May 29 2007, 08:30 AM) *
Going forward doesn't necessarily mean leaving Victoria. There are many more things in and around Victoria they can (and likely will) take close looks at after they're done with Duck Bay.


You won...just got this from SS...:
"When I said "forward", I meant it in the figurative sense of moving forward with continued exploration. I didn't necessarily mean that we would continue south."

QUOTE
Ustrax, I believe the bottom image is a stretched view toward the South. And I believe the satellite image has South toward the bottom. So Ulysses Palace should be on the right, not the left as shown. Did you reverse the rover image?


MarsIsImportant, the top image was rotated 90º
...and don't trust the accuracy on those marked features... wink.gif

Posted by: ustrax May 29 2007, 03:47 PM

I've been bothering SS with the Ithaca issue, like someone distracting the driver from the road and taking his precious time...
Better stop doing that before Oppy makes an unexpected entry at Victoria...

According to SS, although there is, among the team, the curiosity of knowing how interesting that huge baby might be, and the fact of, even through an HiRISE image, the crater would help to make the Meridiani puzzle more understandable, he hasn't looked at it yet...no HiRISE pass is planned:
"If we decide to drive into terrain for which we don't have HiRISE imaging, then we'll get the appropriate HiRISE images."

...And here's a virtue I truly admire...:
"Mars is a big planet, and HiRISE has many targets. Patience is an important part of the game."


Untill that day arrives and I'm still more anxious than patient, I've gathered this image http://www.lyle.org/~markoff/collections/meridiani_themis.jpg by slinted with this http://www.msss.com/moc_gallery/e07_e12/images/E11/E1101328.html from algorimancer.

Here's the result, the heart of Ithaca:


Posted by: ustrax May 29 2007, 03:56 PM

And the whole context:


Posted by: djellison May 29 2007, 04:16 PM

The WHOLE context would show the distance between VIctoria and there - with a scale bar, and perhaps the entire Opportunity traverse to date for reference.

ph34r.gif

Doug

Posted by: ustrax May 29 2007, 04:51 PM

QUOTE (djellison @ May 29 2007, 05:16 PM) *
The WHOLE context would show the distance between VIctoria and there - with a scale bar, and perhaps the entire Opportunity traverse to date for reference.


You are mean... sad.gif

Like this?... smile.gif

Looks impossible...doesn't it?...
Paraphrasing our dear Nix tow years ago...
http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=681&view=findpost&p=6781 rolleyes.gif

Posted by: Stu May 29 2007, 05:36 PM

As much as I love the romance of that idea, it does look a ridiculously far way away to me ustrax... with many months potential dust dune traps and (relatively) featureless terrain to slog through and over before our brave gal finally reached the edge of a crater so big and so wide that surely all we'd see of it from the rim would be teeny mountains stretching across the distant horizon... unsure.gif

I think that when Oppy comes back out of VC she'll be kept busy exploring other features around the rim... Soup Dragon calls, as does Sofi crater, as do a dozen other farside features... there'd be a good chance of Oppy catching changes in the structure of the dunes on the floor with prolonged observation... it would be worth monitoring the outcrops for signs of landslides... so many more reasons for staying, I think, than for striking out for new targets when what is almost certainly the most fantastic scientific site the MER team could have hoped to reach is available.

But hey, who knows what lies out there in the deep desert? smile.gif

Posted by: babakm May 29 2007, 05:46 PM

Here's a perspective view from the HRSCView app showing the whole area incl Endurance, Victoria and Big Crater.


Posted by: djellison May 29 2007, 05:50 PM

QUOTE (ustrax @ May 29 2007, 05:51 PM) *
You are mean... sad.gif


A brutal realist - that's all.

I think it's fair to take the 22 month treck from Endurance to Victoria as a fair measure of progress for a journey of this sort traverse. There will be things that are better ( software and planning) - and things that are potentially worse ( wheels that may break, more broken steering actuators, bad terrain ). Taking Endurance to Victoria (including it's two halts for technical problems etc ) it's a commitment of about 5 years driving. There's not point doing the "100m a sol x Y days = X metres a week" maths - it doesn't work. It never really has apart from primary missions on easy driving ground.

It depends on what HiRISE tells us - it really really does.


If it's all like that (which is isn't ) - it's potentially possible.



If much of it is like this (which it could well be) - it's madness.

To be fair - the route straight SE from Victoria doesn't look THAT bad to begin with. A few hundred metres of brilliant driving. Then a few hundred metres of typical purgatory-like dunes ( which we have to cross at 45 degrees, not traverse down the length of ) - but then you hit a large region of larger dunes mixed with sparse areas of expose rock - much like the north rim of Erebus that we diverted around by a wide margin - but there's no where to divert to...it's all like that.

Look at it another way - It took 230 sols to get from the Western edge of Erebus to Beagle Crater. About 1.5km - over terrain that looks to me to be a fair sample of typical terrain from here onwards. They didn't hang around very much - they got stuck once - but they averaged less than 10m/sol. Another 20km could potentially be 2000 sols further - or just over 5 years.

I see nothing to suggest it could be done quicker than that - I really don't - and I don't think committing to that sort of expedition is a wise use of the vehicle scientifically - nor within the spirit of the world 'exploration'.

It is a very romantic notion - but one that should remain within our imaginations, unless HiRISE shows little short of a paved highway leading the way there. Don't get me wrong - I would love Opportunity to be able to get there - I just see little evidence that it would be able to.

Doug

Posted by: alan May 29 2007, 10:15 PM

Maybe someday the romantics will get their wish and a billionaire will fund a Mars Tourism Rover whose only purpose is to drive long distances over hazardous terrain and take lots of pretty pictures. cool.gif

Posted by: fredk May 29 2007, 11:59 PM

You guys want completely uncalled for, brazen speculation? I'll give you completely uncalled for, brazen speculation! laugh.gif

Perhaps we need to think outside the box on this one. Let's suppose we reach a point where it's deemed there's little to be gained staying at Vicky, and that we're still mobile and funded. Let's suppose the "big crater" to the southeast is deemed an interesting target. Instead of driving southeastish, the most direct route there, through what appears to be purgatoryish dunes, perhaps it would actually be far quicker to drive northeast, back to the flat tarmac we had around Endurance, and then skirt east towards the north rim of Big.

In this map I've sketched a route that gets us to the tarmac very quickly from an extension of Vicky's anulus. In total, we'd spend far less distance in dunes than we have in the past. Of course this all depends on how far the tarmac continues eastwards.


The circle is roughly where we first got stuck in dunes.

Posted by: ElkGroveDan May 30 2007, 12:28 AM

QUOTE (fredk @ May 29 2007, 03:59 PM) *
...suppose we reach a point where it's deemed there's little to be gained staying at Vicky, and that we're still mobile and funded..... it would actually be far quicker to drive northeast, back to the flat tarmac we had around Endurance

I'm with you on part of that Fred, though I'm still way too skeptical about the chances of travelling 20 or so km. But if we have exhausted the obvious science at Victoria, then I could imagine getting back to the "tarmac" as you call it and heading back North or Northeast.

Among some of our tasks could be meteorite hunting (or global impact ejecta), since Meridiani has proven to be a sort of uber-Antarctica in its meteorite hunting opportunities.

Once on the tarmac again we could head back around to Endurance and Eagle, studying the dust deposition and erosion rates on different portions of Oppy's old tracks where we have a very EXACT timeline and season count since the soil was disturbed at each spot.

The chance to examine the chute and backshell site is also something that would excite the engineers among us.

Posted by: nprev May 30 2007, 12:48 AM

QUOTE (ElkGroveDan @ May 29 2007, 05:28 PM) *
The chance to examine the chute and backshell site is also something that would excite the engineers among us.


I'd go for that. EDL at Mars is so notoriously (and historically) difficult that it would be well worth the effort to dedicate some intensive study to the heat shield, backshell, and especially the parachute...valuable follow-up data for future missions.

Posted by: gallen_53 May 30 2007, 04:19 AM

QUOTE (nprev @ May 30 2007, 12:48 AM) *
I'd go for that. EDL at Mars is so notoriously (and historically) difficult that it would be well worth the effort to dedicate some intensive study to the heat shield, backshell, and especially the parachute...valuable follow-up data for future missions.


A bunch of us wanted MER-A or B to take a close look at the backshell. The Back Interface Plate (BIP) and the covers for the Transverse Impulse Rocket Systems (TIRS) on the backshell are made out of SIRCA (Silicone Impregnated Reusable Ceramic Ablator). It would have been very interesting to see how well the SIRCA had held up. However the folks at JPL were adamant that getting anywhere near to the backshell was a non-option because the rover's wheels could have become entangled with the parachute's strings. Fortunately they allowed us to take a close look at the forebody heat shield. That was quite interesting and almost made up for not getting close to the backshell.

Posted by: Stu May 30 2007, 07:36 AM

Don't underestimate the value of "pretty pictures" Alan... useful science is the main aim, sure, but it's the "pretty pictures" that make the magazine covers, TV news programmes and newspapers and get the public excited about space exploration enough to cough up the money that allows the scientists to do the useful science inbetween camera clicks.

I think the pics of Tvashtar billowing up above Io, which were adored around the world, proved that only recently... wink.gif

Posted by: djellison May 30 2007, 07:42 AM

BUT - there is a point at which there would be criticism for just taking pretty pictures and not doing science smile.gif

Doug

Posted by: climber May 30 2007, 07:44 AM

I understand the wish of engeneers to see how the old hardware as behaved.
I thing personaly that we'd better look into the future and use Oppy as another engeneering tester : drive like mad using her software to help future rovers, like MSL. By doing so, we can even imagine more software improvments along the road. As Doug says, we're currently at a mean of 10m/Sol. Can't we drive totaly blind for, say, 10 sols and then assess what has happened? Will we end up will a 10 m drive on the first sol and then get Oppy waiting for more instructions to get out of a trap? Will we end up 1 m to the original target? Will she find solutions we'd not imagined?
I agree that it's not science anymore but didn't John Young did this kind of tests on the Moon?

Posted by: Toma B May 30 2007, 07:45 AM

That is why we love MERs so much...there are both science and pretty pictures. Something for everybody.

Posted by: Stu May 30 2007, 08:03 AM

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 08:42 AM) *
BUT - there is a point at which there would be criticism for just taking pretty pictures and not doing science smile.gif

Doug


True. I wasn't suggesting a Tourism Rover would be a good idea... it would be a stoopid idea actually, all that way just to take pictures; not even I would go for that... I was making the general point that while pictures are probably seen as the cream on the pint of Guinness for scientists, for most of the public and many space enthusiasts they're the tastiest part of the pint. smile.gif

I can do fantastic Outreach with a picture of Oppy sat on the edge of Victoria Crater. A graph showing concentrations of minerals in a rock isn't quite so inspiring to a church hall full of Women's Institute members or Girl Guides or Scouts. tongue.gif

Posted by: djellison May 30 2007, 08:06 AM

In the context of Opportunity - a trip to Ithaca would be as much as 5 years of not-very-pretty-pictures-at-all smile.gif

Doug

Posted by: zoost May 30 2007, 08:07 AM

QUOTE (climber @ May 30 2007, 07:44 AM) *
Can't we drive totaly blind for, say, 10 sols and then assess what has happened?
I prefer and think that they use a replica on earth to test the software that is responsible for the driving.

Posted by: ustrax May 30 2007, 10:01 AM

QUOTE (djellison @ May 29 2007, 06:50 PM) *
A brutal realist - that's all.

It is a very romantic notion - but one that should remain within our imaginations, unless HiRISE shows little short of a paved highway leading the way there. Don't get me wrong - I would love Opportunity to be able to get there - I just see little evidence that it would be able to.


Doug, altough it may not seem like that I can be quite realist too...and trust me I don't get you wrong, I completely understand your arguments and EVEN agree with them... wink.gif
It is far and it is hard, but one thing for sure...it is THERE... smile.gif

Posted by: climber May 30 2007, 10:11 AM

QUOTE (ustrax @ May 30 2007, 12:01 PM) *
Doug, altough it may not seem like that I can be quite realist too...and trust me I don't get you wrong, I completely understand your arguments and EVEN agree with them... wink.gif
It is far and it is hard, but one thing for sure...it is THERE... smile.gif

I agree with you, M. Mallory wink.gif


"I prefer and think that they use a replica on earth to test the software that is responsible for the driving"
Zoost, Yes...and No. unsure.gif

Posted by: djellison May 30 2007, 10:30 AM

QUOTE (ustrax @ May 30 2007, 11:01 AM) *
but one thing for sure...it is THERE... smile.gif


So is Olympus Mons....when do we start driving? ph34r.gif Sure - it's a long way but...it is THERE.

Who knows - maybe we can find somewhere to set a new speed record (>220m/sol) - but that route to the SE just looks NASTY.

Doug

Posted by: ustrax May 30 2007, 11:04 AM

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 11:30 AM) *
So is Olympus Mons....when do we start driving? ph34r.gif


Doug...be reasonable... tongue.gif

There is a route that could ease Oppy's way, if we consider that the terrain nearer craters, such as Victoria's apron can be done with no major risk of incidents, then the rover might connect the dots...there are three craters similar to Victoria on the way, if we count with theirs aprons and with the first stretch covering an area where there seems to be considerable areas of rocky ground.
So we would have plenty science to be done on the way...of course that would make Oppy set foot on Ithaca's ground around 2017... wink.gif


Thanks babakm!

Posted by: Stephen May 30 2007, 11:08 AM

QUOTE (djellison @ May 29 2007, 03:03 AM) *
Unless I see images of that very large crater to the ESE making an EXCELLENT case for going there and HiRISE images documenting the entire route showing it to be in any way feasable - I can see no point in trying to get there when all current indicators suggest it would be a not much more than a suicide mission into a dune field we would never leave.

A crater which a rover can never leave is surely as much of a suicide mission as a dune field it cannot leave, even if the useful science takes a little longer to run out at one than the other.

Or for that matter a crater whose vicinity it can never leave (without "an EXCELLENT case for going [elsew]here" and "HiRISE images documenting the entire route") for fear of falling into another Purgatory-style trap.

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 03:50 AM) *
Taking Endurance to Victoria (including it's two halts for technical problems etc ) it's a commitment of about 5 years driving. There's not point doing the "100m a sol x Y days = X metres a week" maths - it doesn't work. It never really has apart from primary missions on easy driving ground.

Gee, Doug, it's a good thing poor Opportunity can't hear you writing the poor thing off like that. rolleyes.gif

I prefer to think of it as following in the footsteps of other five year plans of exploration...
"Mars...the final frontier.
These are the voyages of the Space Rover Opportunity.
It's five year mission:
To explore strange new rocks...
To seek out new sediments and new craters...
To boldly go where no rover has gone before." biggrin.gif

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 06:06 PM) *
In the context of Opportunity - a trip to Ithaca would be as much as 5 years of not-very-pretty-pictures-at-all smile.gif

On the other hand, to quote a cliche, nothing ventured nothing gained .

By which I mean that if way back at Opportunity's days at Endurance you knew about those dune fields to the south and the possibility if not probability of the rover getting trapped in a Purgatory would you have been arguing for Opportunity to potter around Endurance instead for the remainder of its days instead of venturing south to Victoria?

The possibility that Opportunity MIGHT get stuck again is (IMHO) surely not in itself a reason for not going to new places to see what science it can do there, any more than the possibility of death was a reason for polar explorers like Amundsen, Scott, and Shackleton to stay away from the deadly hazards of Antarctica.

Are we to start treating Opportunity like a cosseted child wrapped in proverbial cottonwool to protect it from the hazards of life (on Mars)? It's prime mission is long over. Way way over in fact! It is now into extra time. I'd have thought this should be the period when its masters can start to be a little more adventurous with it than they were able to back in its prime mission days. (Plus I also have faith in the ability of its engineers to get it out of seemingly inextricable situations, unlike ye of lesser faith. wink.gif )

======
Stephen

Posted by: Stu May 30 2007, 11:23 AM

I think most people here know just how much I live and breathe this stuff, so they'll know how it sadens me to say that striking out for Ithaca would be very bold and noble, and in the 'spirit of exploration' but I think it would be pretty pointless. It hurts me to sound so defeatist, but I just can't see the point, it's a waste of systems and scientific opportunities. Going to Ithaca would mean a journey of - IO think we're all agreed - several years, and those years would be filled with day after day after yawning day of almost unchanging scenery... dunes stretching off to the horizon in an endless sea of ripples, each dune a potential Purgatory... a few rocks here and there, probably meteorites too... sol rise after sol set with nothing new of any note to see or examine... and every sol the chance of a wheel failing, or a system breaking, or a software problem occurring, would grow larger. And all the time the mountainous rim of Ithaca would stubbornly refuse to grow any bigger up ahead. Poor Oppy would be stuck in a Star Trek Voyager scenario... a looooooooong journey to get to anywhere, with death a constant threat, but without the gorgeous Borg in a sprayed-on uniform and the so-annoying-you-could-strangle-him alien cook. wink.gif

Remember the UMSF journey south to Victoria? How we picked up on every hint of a feature on the horizon and obsessed about it for days and weeks? How Doug came close to hiring hitmen to shut some people up? Now, imagine that for FOUR YEARS as Oppy trudges south... arguments over a dozen different beacons... frustration over unchanging scenery after Oppy gets stuck in one dune after another... boredom setting in (and it would, come on, you know it would! I love Mars, but 4 years of dunes would be too much) with week after week of the same scenery...

No. Ithaca would be a great prize (actually, as I type that I'm not so sure about that: it's so big, it would dwarf Victoria, we could only ever hope to see a small portion of it up close, and the far rim would be so far away it would look just like very small mountains on the horizon... hardly a target rich zone for pretty pictures... and it looks so old and weathered that surely the rocks we could study have been eroded greatly... no, I'm not sure it is a great prize...) but there comes a point where someone, somewhere, will have to say "Okay, we've done all we can, but we've nowhere else to go. We plan a long observation mission here, where we are."

Posted by: ustrax May 30 2007, 11:32 AM

QUOTE (Stephen @ May 30 2007, 12:08 PM) *
By which I mean that if way back at Opportunity's days at Endurance you knew about those dune fields to the south and the possibility if not probability of the rover getting trapped in a Purgatory would you have been arguing for Opportunity to potter around Endurance instead for the remainder of its days instead of venturing south to Victoria?


Stephen...you got me all emotional, standing up and applauding histerically your entire post! laugh.gif
As it goes on an old Portuguese saying...To backwards urinates the she-donkey... rolleyes.gif

Posted by: Stu May 30 2007, 11:53 AM

Admit it ustrax, you just made that 'old saying' up! tongue.gif

Posted by: djellison May 30 2007, 12:03 PM

Stephen - have you looked at the HiRISE image to the SE of Victoria?

Please do - then come back and tell me you think heading into that is a good idea - come back and say yes, you think Opportunity can cross 20km of mixed terrain including very large sand dunes with no obvious way around them. I'm being serious. Go and look at it - and can you HONESTLY say you think we can get through it with a vehicle with a stuck steering actuator and a history off getting stuck in fairly modest dunes - three times already.

Be bold, be brave, go exploring - I agree. Jump off a metaphorical cliff? No thanks. This is a PRICELESS asset we're talking about. We can spend another two year at Victoria crater doing good science that we can get to. It's here - it's extraordinary - it's feasable. Then - there's stuff we rushed past at Erebus - we KNOW we can get back there. There's exposed rock that is perhaps 2-3-4km to the SW that would be tough to get to - but it could be interesting. Then there's this crater that's half a decade of driving away over terrain we already know to be hazardous to the MER desgn.

I thought Victoria was a brave option - but appropriately so - a 50/50 shot that was worth doing for the science it might offer. There was nothing left to do at Endurance - it was the best option available given the data available. We didn't know that Purgatory was sat there. Given the data available now - were Opportunity sat at the Heatshield - Victoria would still be the best option. Now - sat at Victoria - Ithaca is not a 50/50 shot. I don't even rate it as a 1/99 shot. It's not a case of 'might' get stuck. Opportunity would have a dozen episodes like Jammerbugt. If we had a Spirit like wheel failure - it would be even harder to get out of those sorts of situations.

With the data we have now - with the evidence infront of us - the orbital images of the terrain to the SE of Victoria and comparing it to the terrain we have observed directly - with a knowledge that the driving wheels have a finite life that has already seen one wheel of the twelve on the surface fail - I honestly believe that saying we should drive to Ithaca is nothing short of crazy - idiotic even.

You may well say 'look - look at that great big crater over there'. I say 'look - look at the terrain we would have to try and cross to get there and look at the years of science we can do right here, now" I'm not saying wrap the thing in bubble wrap...I'm saying exercise sensibility - that's all.

Driving to Ithaca would be - given current data - idiocy. It's a romantic notion...but nothing more - I find it increasingly difficult to take people who think it anything more than that seriously because it shows that you're just not looking at the data infront of us and the experiences of the last 3+ years realistically.

10 years from know perhaps I'll be proven wrong as Opportunity drives it's way around the far rim of Ithaca. But now, with the data we have, heading to Ithaca is the wrong thing to do - and gratuitously obviously so.

In short - cut the romantic crap and look at the best data we have and tell me you honestly believe driving to Ithaca is the best use of this priceless asset.

Doug

Posted by: dvandorn May 30 2007, 01:22 PM

OK -- if we're seriously going to discuss where Oppy ought to go after Victoria, I must say I like Fred's idea of heading NW to get back onto the flat, almost-ripple-free terrain that lies beyond the northern extent of Victoria's apron. However, no matter what we do, we run into bad ripple/dune terrain trying to get to Ithaca.

I'd like to suggest a different set of targets. There are three craters of apparently wildly varying ages off to the east-northeast that would make a good site for a co-ordinated study set, which might only take a year or so of traveling to reach (assuming no further wheel malfunctions and the ability to travel 200+ meters a day on good "roads"). Here's my suggestion, overlain on Ustrax's regional map:



My proposed route is in blue, here. (Pardon the crudity, I really only have MS Paint with which to work.) Granted, it's nearly as long a traverse as getting to Ithaca, but it traverses over better, far less dangerous terrain, and I see three very interesting targets sort of grouped together at the end of the journey.

The first target to be reached I have labeled A. A is an old, degraded crater about 70% the size of Victoria. It has very much the size and appearance of Erebus, except that is is surrounded not by the etched terrain (which we know now is heavily covered with soft ripples), but with the flatter pavement we found near the landing site. It's an ancient crater, really just a ring of exposed evaporite rim material around a complete crater fill. But unlike Erebus, it's not covered over with obscuring layers of ripples. It seems to me that anything we could investigate at Erebus, we could likely investigate at A.

Just beyond A lies B, a crater roughly the same size as Victoria but with a less obvious apron and without the bay-and-cape structures. Taking a close look at B could answer some significant questions as to why Victoria has developed cape-and-bay structures, while B hasn't -- is it due to differences in the target rock, or is it differences in the erosional process?

Finally, just past B, we have C, which is almost more of an albedo feature than a crater. This one *might* not even be an impact structure -- it's roughly the same size as Victoria and B, but completely lacks a raised rim. Even when an impact structure is completely filled in this area, it leaves a ring of exposed evaporite rim deposits, but C doesn't show any signs of that. It appears to be a sinkhole more than a crater, and seems to be a source of dark dust that is swept out of C and up to the north-northwest. A sinkhole roughly the size of Victoria could teach us an *awful* lot about the subsurface structure of the entire region.

I find nowhere else within possible range where we can see such a diverse set of observation targets, and which can all be studied one after another with relative ease. Each has its own telltale signs of origin and history, and each appears to have undergone significantly different origins and erosional processes -- which is quite interesting, since they're all in fairly close proximity to each other. A study of all three features would, IMHO, give us a far better idea of what processes formed this entire area than looking at the very much more highly shocked remnants of the much larger impact that formed Ithaca. Each also provides variations on what we have already learned at Endurance, Erebus and Victoria, which should help us put those findings in a better regional context.

So -- not only do I see a good set of targets, I see a set of targets that are both easier to reach and at least as valuable to study as Ithaca would be.

What do y'all think?

-the other Doug

Posted by: ustrax May 30 2007, 01:28 PM

QUOTE (Stu @ May 30 2007, 12:53 PM) *
Admit it ustrax, you just made that 'old saying' up! tongue.gif


I surely did http://209.85.135.104/search?q=cache:6ZsUtyw61VUJ:www.hkocher.info/minha_pagina/port/port_p02.htm+prov%C3%A9rbio+para+tr%C3%A1s+mija+a+burra&hl=pt-PT&ct=clnk&cd=2&gl=pt... tongue.gif

QUOTE
and those years would be filled with day after day after yawning day of almost unchanging scenery...


Not if you follow the three Victorias path... rolleyes.gif

Doug...who's talking about leaving right now towards Ithaca?
I'm quite aware of the work already done and waiting to be done, about the possiblity of getting back to Erebus, and other possible near targets...
But after that?
Is Opportunity going to be parked? Or, time and funds permitting so, embark on a new journey untill it stops working for good?
You are seing the Ithaca journey scenario discussion in a very linear way, as if we were saying that the rover start moving NOW and not stopping untill it gets there...
It's not a journey to Ithaca, it's a journey that might take us there...
Is it so idiotic to think that Opportunity may start a new trek on that direction?
If it gets there, great, if it doesn't there are interesting targets on the way, like the http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?act=Attach&type=post&id=10599, that could enlarge our knowledge about Meridiani...

Let me just add some romantic crap powder and say that this verses will always make an incredible sense to me:

"...
Keep Ithaca always on your mind.
Arriving there is what you are destined for.
But do not hurry the journey at all.
Better if it lasts for years,
so you are old by the time you reach the island,
wealthy with all you have gained on the way,
not expecting Ithaca to make you rich.

Ithaca gave you the marvelous journey.
Without her you would not have set out.
She has nothing left to give you now.

And if you find her poor, Ithaca won't have fooled you.
Wise as you will have become, so full of experience,
you will have understood by then what these Ithacas mean."


K. Kavafis

Posted by: djellison May 30 2007, 01:54 PM

I gotta say - those second two craters look damn interesting - and heading NE you get the feeling from the imagery that we'll be on Endurance terrain rather than Erebus terrain once you're at the Ellipse line heading ENE again.

And Ustrax - that's not the case you've been making - you've been saying Ithaca Ithaca Ithaca Ithaca. Not 'lets go to targets in the East and maybe, eventually, we might get to Ithaca'. Go and look carefully at the bottom of the HiRISE image for Victoria ( the larger one that also includes Endurnace ). It's something of a contrast to big 30k wide HRSC images with dotted lines on them smile.gif

Doug

Posted by: Stu May 30 2007, 01:57 PM

I know the romantic explorer in you can hear Ithaca calling out to you like a siren sitting on a rock, ustrax, but we have a saying here in the UK too:

Never ye a fool be and poke a sleepy badger in the eye with a stick of rhubarb...

I think that says it all.

smile.gif

Posted by: ustrax May 30 2007, 02:04 PM

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 02:54 PM) *
you've been saying Ithaca Ithaca Ithaca Ithaca. Not 'lets go to targets in the East and maybe, eventually, we might get to Ithaca'.


Where did you get that idea from?! blink.gif

QUOTE
Never ye a fool be and poke a sleepy badger in the eye with a stick of rhubarb...


Stu, can you please translate that?... unsure.gif

Posted by: Stu May 30 2007, 02:06 PM

QUOTE (ustrax @ May 30 2007, 03:04 PM) *
Where did you get that idea from?! blink.gif
Stu, can you please translate that?... unsure.gif



Sorry, just teasing you, I made it up. wink.gif But it should be a proverb. It makes as much sense as yours about a backward peeing donkey smile.gif

Posted by: djellison May 30 2007, 02:10 PM

QUOTE (ustrax @ May 30 2007, 03:04 PM) *
Where did you get that idea from?! blink.gif


Posts 7, 19, 20 and 22 in this thread. Maybe you don't intend to, but it comes across as considering heading to Ithaca a plausable, feasable, and something we should do instead of going back to Erebus or elsewhere

Doug

Posted by: algorimancer May 30 2007, 02:20 PM

Heading due east from Victoria would indeed be a very bad idea, there is a huge dune field over there. On the other hand, a look at the HiRISE image suggests that there is a route which is initially due south, then curves east through a region which appears generally more traversable than what Oppy covered heading to Vicky.

[attachment=10605:attachment]

There are still some touchy areas to cover, but much of this is relatively open stretches of evaporite. Typically, it looks a lot like this up close:

[attachment=10606:attachment]

[attachment=10607:attachment]

The HiRISE coverage is insufficient to map the complete route in detail, but there's enough to show that Oppy can make it to the edge of coverage without too much difficulty, particularly factoring in the new nav software. As ustrax pointed out earlier,

http://marsoweb.nas.nasa.gov/HiRISE/hirise_images/PSP/orb_001400/PSP_001414_1780/

The overview suggests that, once the HiRISE gap is filled-in, a navigable route to the west rim of Ithaca is entirely feasible.

Boring? I think not as bad as prior to Vicky, and the destination is already visible. There will be various outcrops and craters along the way, and lot's of entertainment in projecting where Oppy will go next. Plus Oppy ought to be moving quickly enough to guarantee some regular changes in scenery.

As to scientific value, this takes us into an entirely new geological realm, not only the Ithaca rim peaks themselves, but the interior of Ithaca as well - which the MOLA maps indicate is substantially (hundreds of meters, as I recall) lower than than Vicky, and thus having the potential of having once contained standing water. Taking Oppy in any other direction would just see more of the same fractured/layered evaporite - talk about boring.

Assuming Oppy is healthy at the time, I see no reason why this would be as much as a 4 year trip. Given the new nav software, I could envision completing the traverse in a single driving season, as little as a year. To me, the journey to Ithaca seems to sanest option after Victoria.

Posted by: ustrax May 30 2007, 02:25 PM

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 03:10 PM) *
Maybe you don't intend to, but it comes across as considering heading to Ithaca a plausable, feasable, and something we should do instead of going back to Erebus or elsewhere


I believe my posts were not well understood...
When on the way to Victoria were we dreaming about the possibility of reaching Vostok, Argos, Jason or, instead, the mirage of the big crater filled our imagination?
Now, I don't know about others, I'm going through the same process...there are several targets on the way, but the gold is just ahead...
Maybe unreachable, but enticing in such a way that we could trace a path in that direction all this without throwing science overboard.

The overview suggests that, once the HiRISE gap is filled-in, a navigable route to the west rim of Ithaca is entirely feasible.

QUOTE
Boring? I think not as bad as prior to Vicky, and the destination is already visible. There will be various outcrops and craters along the way, and lot's of entertainment in projecting where Oppy will go next. Plus Oppy ought to be moving quickly enough to guarantee some regular changes in scenery.

As to scientific value, this takes us into an entirely new geological realm, not only the Ithaca rim peaks themselves, but the interior of Ithaca as well - which the MOLA maps indicate is substantially (hundreds of meters, as I recall) lower than than Vicky, and thus having the potential of having once contained standing water. Taking Oppy in any other direction would just see more of the same fractured/layered evaporite - talk about boring.


I subscribe every single word in your post algorimancer.

Stu, the old saying means simply the same as...Go Onward!

Posted by: djellison May 30 2007, 03:04 PM

QUOTE (algorimancer @ May 30 2007, 03:20 PM) *
The overview suggests that, once the HiRISE gap is filled-in, a navigable route to the west rim of Ithaca is entirely feasible.


The MOC imagery doesn't tell the story. The nothern rim of Erebus is an area of HUGE dunes. MOC doesn't show that. We need the actual HiRISE imagery to say what we're going to see. Anything else is conjecture.

I don't doubt the scientific value of Ithaca - it would be extraordinary. I simply believe that looking at the HiRISE imagery we DO have - there are some very very large dune fields with very big dunes with no real way around them. The North seems a far less dune-laden area than the south.

This new software isn't magical - it's not traction control - it doesnt mean Opportunity has sprouted wings - it doesn't make the vehicle less prone to digging in its wheels - it simply gives us the means to identify that loss of motion while under power and terminate drives early ( as we saw at Jammerbugt ). The vehicle would still hit dunes, still get stuck - it just wouldn't do so as dramatically as at Purgatory. There is nothing to suggest the journey of 20km from Victoria to Ithaca could be conducted any more swiftly than the 1.5km journey from Erebus to Beagle.

Fairly sweeping phrases about the terrain to the East and South Algo - my crop of the HiRISE imagery of excellent terrain was from due East of Victoria ( where you say it's terrible ). My crop of terrible terrain was from the South where you say there's an easy way out. I'm as sure that Ithaca is a bad idea as you are it's a good idea.

I think there is a very very strong case for getting HiRISE images (even 2x2 binned) of terrain NE, S and SE of Victoria. All this is essentially idle banter without it.

Doug

Posted by: dvandorn May 30 2007, 03:12 PM

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 08:54 AM) *
I gotta say - those second two craters look damn interesting - and heading NE you get the feeling from the imagery that we'll be on Endurance terrain rather than Erebus terrain once you're at the Ellipse line heading ENE again.

Don't they? I am *especially* interested in the one I designated C -- its basic form is that of a dimple, rather than a bowl. The light floor unit *might* be some simple dust fill, but as it is surrounded by a "crater" wall that appears convex rather than concave, I have a hard time believing that this is an impact structure, and if it's a sinkhole, the floor might represent a *much* lower evaporite unit than we've seen before. The dark source of the small dark fan *might* just be a dust trap that occasionally yields part of its trove back up to the winds -- but it might also be a piece of a darker, different type of material that's eroding into dark dust.

Yes, Ithaca's ringwall remnants could be quite interesting -- but what are the odds that Ithaca was emplaced a *long* time before this part of Mars was repeatedly flooded, and has been altered so much that you'd have to spend a decade putting together it's story? Ithaca *might* give you some insight into what existed here before there was water -- the three craters I'm looking at, it seems to me, might offer a better chance at increasing our insight into what this part of Mars was like *while* there was water here.

Is it just me, or does it seem like that would be perhaps a little more useful?

-the other Doug

Posted by: babakm May 30 2007, 03:25 PM

The area directly South of Victoria looks pretty bad in the http://marsoweb.nas.nasa.gov/HiRISE/hirise_images/PSP/orb_001400/PSP_001414_1780/, but once you get past that (easier said than done), it looks like the plains North of Victoria again (especially in the SE corner of the image). This http://www.geoinf.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/ion-p?ION__E1=UPDATE%3Aion%3A%2F%2Fhrscview.ion&image=2064_0000&lat=-2.133&lon=354.565&zoom=5&mode=nd&scale=12.5&pview=North&exag=1.5&viewport=1150x680&UPDATE.x=777&UPDATE.y=361&image0=2064_0000&code=66798686&dblclick=0 is the best available to look around in the area.

As Doug said, we need many more images.

Posted by: algorimancer May 30 2007, 03:36 PM

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 10:04 AM) *
My crop of terrible terrain was from the South where you say there's an easy way out. I'm as sure that Ithaca is a bad idea as you are it's a good idea.


Incidentally, there are 3 attached images with my last post which are not displayed. When I go into full-edit I clearly see the attachments, both the files and the associated tags in the post, however none of them are showing above. Something gone awry with the site?

Here, I'll try again:




The first image shows an overview. I used red to indicate regions of heavy dunes, between which is a region of mottled terrain, close-ups of which are shown in the two follow-up images. Yes, as you say, there are regions to the south where the terrain is very bad, yet in the midst of the bad are regions which are pretty good.

I appreciate that we have very different notions as to the wisdom of heading to Ithaca smile.gif. It is too early to commit to it, Oppy may not survive that long, and I agree that we definitely need HiRISE to pave the way. Still, it's a heck of a lot of fun to contemplate.

Posted by: gallen_53 May 30 2007, 03:37 PM

I think MER-B should aggressively explore Victoria Crater. Victoria Crater is a good place to die (much better than the middle of a dune field). Aggressive exploration up the sides and along the edges of the crater would show us the limits of the rover's capability. Such knowledge would be useful towards guiding future rovers.

Posted by: ustrax May 30 2007, 03:47 PM

Leaving aside the possible interest of the crater and speaking only of the feasiblity of reaching it how do you see this possible path?
It seems to me devoided of big dunes and with some good stretches of solid ground...
In how much time would a healthy Opportunity would cover this distance (roughly 1/3 of the total way)?


Posted by: dvandorn May 30 2007, 03:51 PM

Exactly -- as Doug says, we need more HiRISE images of the entire area. I'm sure that a complete survey of the entire area is in the plans, since applying the ground truth we have from Oppy to the entire area is important in understanding the formation processes of the region, and HiRISE images are so good that they let us make some pretty high-order connections between where Oppy has been and the rest of the area. But it will probably be a good, long time (months, at least) before MRO captures all the data we want. (And remember, we'll probably want CRISM coverage of the area too, to help determine where we might find interesting minerology.)

The more I look at the area to the east-northeast, the more I like the idea of heading that way. If the terrain is as good as it looks, with 200+ meter drives you could reach the area of the A-B-C craters in as little as 100 sols of driving, as opposed to the probable 600 to 800 sols of driving needed to travel the same distance through etched terrain. And to top it off, once you finish with A-B-C (and possibly another sinkhole-like feature I'm thinking of as D, located to the west-southwest of A-B-C), there is what appears to be a straight shot on good terrain directly south to the area of Ithaca, so if Oppy is still working and you really wanted to, you could still get to Ithaca -- while getting more science in and possibly taking less time than if you took the more direct southeast route.

Now if I could only mention my ideas to the MER team... smile.gif I'm pretty sure, though, that if I, an interested amateur, sees these things, *someone* on the MER team has to have seen the same things and come to the same conclusions.

Fingers and toes crossed...

-the other Doug

p.s. -- if anyone has any good ideas for designations of A, B and C, even though we know they'll be preliminary and not adopted by the official MER team, I'd be more than happy. It gets a little bland to continue to refer to these very interesting targets by simple one-letter designations. And the best I've come up with is Moe, Larry and Curly, with the unlabeled D standing in as Shemp... biggrin.gif

Posted by: djellison May 30 2007, 03:55 PM

We just built three new PC's here at work - Aramis, Athos and Porthos smile.gif


As for Ustrax's latest map - the first 800m - could be very fast.

The following 3km or so - 400 sols - that sort of time frame - looks very similar to the Erebus-Beagle terrain - but with some areas of much larger dunes.

Doug

Posted by: Edward Schmitz May 30 2007, 03:59 PM

QUOTE (climber @ May 30 2007, 12:44 AM) *
... Can't we drive totaly blind for, say, 10 sols and then assess what has happened? ...
Will she find solutions we'd not imagined?


Tests like that can be done on earth without wasting time on mars. And as for finding 'solutions not imagined', it's always interesting watching your software in action but it really shouldn't be doing things that you didn't expect. That more often than not ends you up in a ditch.

Posted by: Edward Schmitz May 30 2007, 04:08 PM

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 03:30 AM) *
So is Olympus Mons....when do we start driving? ph34r.gif Sure - it's a long way but...it is THERE.

Who knows - maybe we can find somewhere to set a new speed record (>220m/sol) - but that route to the SE just looks NASTY.

Doug


Doug, I really think you haven't given this idea a fair hearing. While it does seem outside the rover's capability, I feel its important to 'think outside the box'. Let the creative mind soar free for a while. I don't think there is a solution forth coming but if we listen to the various ideas, we'll know for sure.

Posted by: djellison May 30 2007, 04:13 PM

QUOTE (Edward Schmitz @ May 30 2007, 05:08 PM) *
Doug, I really think you haven't given this idea a fair hearing.


I don't think those advocating it have given HiRISE images a fair viewing. huh.gif I would love Opportunity to be able to make that trip - but no ammount of poetry or positive thinking will actually make it any easier.

Like I've said again and again - with the data we have in front of us - it's a crazy idea. If we get more HiRISE images that show eagle-to-endurance like terrain for the middle 10km of the tripe....let's do it. If it's all like the part we can see - Erebus-to-Beagle with larger dunes...let's forget about it.

There are places were I see the drive direction images being 180 degrees of this
http://marsrovers.jpl.nasa.gov/gallery/all/1/p/616/1P182877345EFF62OUP2399R2M1.JPG

Experience tells us that you don't go through that. The vehicle can't do it. You've got to go around it - and around it is going to be hundreds of metres across more dunes. Given the data we have now it looks like a 5 year trip that Opportunity could just about make from a navigation perspective. I don't think it's a wise way to spend 5 years when there is every chance of never getting there and having our mobility go up in smoke 6k from anything.

Doug

Posted by: Edward Schmitz May 30 2007, 04:40 PM

Dvandorn had an alternative idea above that doesn't take us through that area. And it still leaves us with the posibility that Ithica is within reach.

We haven't exhausted the creativity of this group, yet.

I haven't seen anything else in the area that would make a better long term target. That is of course that we squeeze every last bit out of VC. 'A bird in the hand' as they say...

Posted by: algorimancer May 30 2007, 04:48 PM

I sure wish the HiRISE and other orbiter teams would get together with the Google Earth developers (Google Mars seems to have stalled long ago) and get all this imagery incorporated into the application, then we could really have a coherent look at the terrain and communally add and share annotations to everything - and actually all be on the same page in the course of this discussion. For an example of what is feasible (assuming that you have Google Earth installed), have a look at what I've been doing these past few months in terms of exploring Lake Charlotte (big lake/swamp east of Houston),
http://www.clarkandersen.com/LakeCharlotte/LakeCharlotte.kmz

It makes it easy to mark and label points of of interest, paths, regions, and even add overlay images, then easily share it all. As I've been scanning the greater Victoria region with the HiRISE Online Image Viewer I keep finding myself wishing for the ability to tag various features, mark potential paths, or simply view it from different orientations. Unfortunately the full-sized image is too big to overlay on GE, and I don't have an easy means of subdividing it.

Posted by: babakm May 30 2007, 05:17 PM

QUOTE (algorimancer @ May 30 2007, 04:48 PM) *
I sure wish the HiRISE and other orbiter teams would get together with the Google Earth developers


It can't be too far away considering how much work they have already done on the http://jmars.asu.edu/data/.

Speaking of...

If you click between http://jmars.asu.edu/maps/?lat=-2.439&lng=-5.23&z=7&layer=THEMIS_day_IR centered on Ithaca and the (much less precise) Hematite map using the Layers dropdown at the top of the page, it looks like there are generally higher concentrations of Hematite to the South and East.

Posted by: fredk May 30 2007, 05:54 PM

QUOTE (dvandorn @ May 30 2007, 01:22 PM) *
OK -- if we're seriously going to discuss where Oppy ought to go after Victoria, I must say I like Fred's idea of heading NW to get back onto the flat, almost-ripple-free terrain that lies beyond the northern extent of Victoria's apron....

I'd like to suggest a different set of targets. There are three craters of apparently wildly varying ages off to the east-northeast that would make a good site for a co-ordinated study set, which might only take a year or so of traveling to reach... So -- not only do I see a good set of targets, I see a set of targets that are both easier to reach and at least as valuable to study as Ithaca would be.

What do y'all think?
You read my mind, Doug! When I proposed my "escape route" onto the "tarmac" through the shortest stretch of dunes to the northeast of Victoria, I was eyeing those Victoria-class craters (A, B, C) as the first major targets, followed by (Hirise images favourable!) a drive southwards to the north rim of Big.

I really have to stress how much faster (and easier!) driving was from Endurance to Purgatory 1 versus Purgatory to Beagle. Just look at the route maps! It seems so obvious that, unless there was an extremely interesting target that could only be reached through a vast sea of dunes, getting back on the tarmac as quickly as possible would maximize the scientific return from the rover. Remember - we were doing 200 metres a day on the tarmac!!

As I believe SS has commented himself, we're at a stage now where getting information about the horizontal variation of the geology is as important if not more so than what we see vertically at Victoria. Once we're thoroughly done with Victoria, getting back on the tarmac is the only practical way to study those horizontal variations over significant distances.

Posted by: helvick May 30 2007, 06:58 PM

QUOTE (gallen_53 @ May 30 2007, 04:37 PM) *
Aggressive exploration up the sides and along the edges of the crater would show us the limits of the rover's capability.

Amen to that.

Posted by: dvandorn May 30 2007, 07:10 PM

QUOTE (fredk @ May 30 2007, 12:54 PM) *
You read my mind, Doug! When I proposed my "escape route" onto the "tarmac" through the shortest stretch of dunes to the northeast of Victoria, I was eyeing those Victoria-class craters (A, B, C) as the first major targets, followed by (Hirise images favourable!) a drive southwards to the north rim of Big.

Yeah -- like I say, *if* HiRISE imagery shows there is a relatively clear path through the northeastern apron of Victoria back up to the "tarmac," as you put it (as good a name as any), and *if* there are no major drive-around obstacles along the route to A-B-C, at an average of 200 meters per sol driving, it would only take 100 driving sols to cover 20 km. And I'm not even positive that A-B-C is as far as 20 km, that complex may only be 12 to 15 km away.

While that kind of traverse would have seemed like a completely unreasonable goal at the beginning of the mission, we know now that, if we choose, we *can* drive an average of 200 km per sol for extended periods. And heck, even if Oppy adopted the drive-three-survey-one sol plan used by Spirit on its way to the Columbia Hills, it ought not take more than 150 sols, max, to get from Victoria to A. Perhaps as little as 100 to 125.

I'm not too worried about it at present, since we're probably looking at spending the entire Martian summer and fall at Victoria. But for a long-term plan, I think that any traverse plan that places us back on the tarmac stands a good chance of getting us to another interesting location before winter solstice.

I'd be far more comfortable with an extended mission plan that gets us to a new set of interesting targets before winter solstice, than with a plan that calls for us to just sit at Victoria for the entirety of the next winter -- assuming we're done with Victoria by then. And I have to agree with Doug, I just don't see a clear straight path to Ithaca from Victoria.

And, of course, we have to understand that Oppy could die, become sensor-crippled or become hobbled at almost any time. I will rather diffidently make the point that if we lose Oppy's IDD in the midst of the Victoria campaign (and the IDD is the logical item to be lost next, since it is the most degraded of any of Oppy's sensing equipment up to now), it will take considerably less time to gather as much information as possible from Vicky and it may make more sense to observe what we can of other interesting targets before anything else dies, and especially before she completely loses a wheel and becomes hobbled like her sister. Without the IDD, you only have Pancam and mini-TES for detailed scientific analyses, and it will take far less time to gather that data than will be taken deploying the arm and running week-long Mossbauer and APXS integrations.

But, of course, we *will* have to get some decent HiRISE coverage of the whole area before we can do more than engage in energetic arm-waving... smile.gif

-the other Doug

Posted by: MarsIsImportant May 31 2007, 04:10 AM

I like the Craters A, B, and C idea better than straight to Ithaca plan It's crazy too; but at least it's possible as long as a Global Sandstorm does not occur anytime soon.

We have been extremely lucky up to now that a major sandstorm hasn't happened directly along Oppy's path--although there have been a couple of scares. I'm surprised nobody has mentioned that danger yet on this particular topic. The only dangers discussed have been associated with terrain and mechanical breakdowns due to longevity. But the terrain is the least of Oppy's worries and threats on such a long journey. The rover would not last a few days if one of these sandstorms does occur. The known history of Mars suggests that we are long overdue for such an occurance.

Let me illustrate how crazy the Ithaca idea is. It's like a mission to Mars is somehow expected to reach Pluto. It isn't going to make it. We have a minimum of 2 years of good science left at Victoria, maybe 3 to 4 years. A 5 year trip in "the land of nothing" really means expecting the rover to last another 8 years total at a minimum. Yet the most interesting parts of Ithaca are over 40km away, not just 20km to the rim!!! I really think there is a reason why no probe has been sent toward a neighboring stellar system yet...guys. Ithaca deserves a dedecated mission with its own up-to-date rover designed to do the job. One could be sent from Earth and reach Ithaca sooner than Oppy could realistically get there, even if the current rover were to somehow survive the years.

Let's face the fact that Opportunity is likely to die in or near Victoria. If it survives, then we still have several years to decide where it goes next. But I'm sure whereever it goes, it will be a death march. That's assuming Oppy can actually get out of Victoria.

Posted by: centsworth_II May 31 2007, 04:24 AM

QUOTE (MarsIsImportant @ May 31 2007, 12:10 AM) *
Ithaca deserves a dedecated mission...

I think it might be a few hundred down
on a list of "deserving sites" on Mars.

Posted by: Pando May 31 2007, 05:25 AM

Hey Ustrax, my good friend,

http://www.marsroverblog.com/discuss-14001-proposed-process-for-aquifer-origin-of-the-ultreya-abyss-and-eventual-caves.html

http://www.marsroverblog.com/discuss-14303--ustrax-catharsis-dusk-inside-the-ultreya-abyss.html

http://www.marsroverblog.com/discuss-15471-countdown-to-ultreya.html

http://www.marsroverblog.com/discuss-20762-a-new-hope-on-ultreya-and-a-proposal.html

http://www.marsroverblog.com/discuss-22907-that-way-that-way-yelled-the-ultreya-maniac.html

...and you haven't changed a bit! biggrin.gif smile.gif

Pando (aka 'youremi')

Posted by: ustrax May 31 2007, 08:29 AM

QUOTE (Pando @ May 31 2007, 06:25 AM) *
...and you haven't changed a bit! biggrin.gif smile.gif


Hey Pando! smile.gif
Tradition still is what it used to be...
I don't know if I should smile or cry about it... tongue.gif

You are forgetting the http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?showtopic=1850&st=0 of those crazy crazy days... smile.gif
In spite of everything one thing is for sure, we DID get there, so I'll just keep on dreaming about Ithaca and, who knows, if some years from now you will be reminding us this posts? wink.gif

Regarding an hypothetical path after Victoria I'm also starting to agree that the road passing by the ABC craters is the most logical one, but without loosing Ithaca out of sight... smile.gif

Posted by: Stephen Jun 1 2007, 11:35 AM

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 10:03 PM) *
Stephen - have you looked at the HiRISE image to the SE of Victoria?

I find that downloading gigabyte-size files is expensive, taxes bandwidth, and probably pointless if the machine I download them to cannot usefully handle them anyway. I have however been looking at some of the smaller versions of those files which you and others have been putting up here and elsewhere.

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 10:03 PM) *
Be bold, be brave, go exploring - I agree. Jump off a metaphorical cliff? No thanks. This is a PRICELESS asset we're talking about.

Nobody is proposing the rovers do any swan dives off any metaphorical cliffs. But at the same time you need to ask yourself whether fear of the unknown--the unknown sand trap, that is--is a good enough reason to avoid at least trying.

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 10:03 PM) *
We can spend another two year at Victoria crater doing good science that we can get to. It's here - it's extraordinary - it's feasable.

I have no problem with Opportunity staying at Victoria and examining it inside and out. But then I doubt if you would find anyone on this forum who is saying it shouldn't.

That said, be careful with that "good science" claim. Let's face it. Mars is still largely a blank slate. The rovers could go virtually anywhere, stick an IDD in, and get good science back. Consider Spirit. It is finding good opportunities for good science through pure chance and the dragging of a non-functional wheel! A more pertinent question is whether the science obtainable at one particular site would be more useful to a rovers' goals than the science it might get by going elsewhere.

At Victoria I would agree there is certainly very good science obtainable there that Opportunity would not get, at least easily, by going elsewhere. The same however is more disputable for other places like, well...

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 10:03 PM) *
Then - there's stuff we rushed past at Erebus - we KNOW we can get back there.

IMHO, the rovers should not go over old ground without good reason. There are good reasons for Spirit's return to Home Plate, for example, but there may well be good reasons for Opportunity to go back to Erebus, but unlike Home Plate I yet to hear what the Erebus ones are. The one you give here makes Erebus seem more like a consolation prize: the place Opportunity would be consigned to if there was nowhere else more useful for it to go.

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 10:03 PM) *
There's exposed rock that is perhaps 2-3-4km to the SW that would be tough to get to - but it could be interesting.

Sounds OK to me. Whether it is a best destination however is another matter.

======
Stephen

Posted by: Stephen Jun 1 2007, 11:43 AM

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 10:03 PM) *
Then there's this crater that's half a decade of driving away over terrain we already know to be hazardous to the MER desgn.

Careful! Don't confuse what you KNOW with what you SUPPOSE. You no more KNOW that that terrain is "hazardous to the MER design" than you knew that there were dunes hazardous to that same design on Opportunity's route between Endurance and Victoria.

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 10:03 PM) *
I thought Victoria was a brave option - but appropriately so - a 50/50 shot that was worth doing for the science it might offer. There was nothing left to do at Endurance - it was the best option available given the data available.

Was it?

I do not recall there was ever much discussion about prospects in the other three directions--north, east, or west beyond Eagle. Presumably they were all too flat and uninteresting--no large craters--compared to the much closer prospects to the south.

QUOTE (djellison @ May 30 2007, 10:03 PM) *
I'm not saying wrap the thing in bubble wrap...I'm saying exercise sensibility - that's all.

Which is part of the reason I object to going back to Erebus without good reason. Spirit and Opportunity have unknown but obviously finite lifespans left. Fear of large sand dunes and other putative perils may be reason enough for avoiding particular routes. They are not good reasons (IMHO) for not trying at all, much less a good reason for squandering part of the dwindling life span of a resource you claim to find so priceless by sending it over old ground for fear of sending it elsewhere.

Opportunity is more likely to make useful discoveries by going to places it hasn't yet been to than by trying to fill the blanks in by going back to places it has already visited. That could be going east or SE towards Ithaca or it could be going SW towards that exposed rock you mentioned. I suspend judgment as to which is the better pending further data.
***

I'll just conclude this with a more general observation.

It seems to me those HiRISE images are a mixed blessing. No offence, but the sight of those dunes appears to have spooked you, to the point that you seem to be treating Opportunity, at least in this matter, as if it were a kind of surrogate human being: you are so in fear of its losing its mechanical life that you are balking at sending even remotely near the supposed peril.

That in turn arguably negates one of the prime advantages unmanned robotic explorers have over the human sort: their ability to venture into places too dangerous for any human to go. If we humans are going to balk at the idea of sending unmanned robotic explorers into even mildly difficult places--ie places it can always retreat from it the going gets too tough--then how are we ever going to gather up the courage to send them into the kinds of places that may well hold REAL perils, like scaling the cliff walls of Mariner Valley or diving into the stygian deeps of the putative ocean beneath the ice of Europa?

======
Stephen

Posted by: djellison Jun 1 2007, 12:58 PM

QUOTE (Stephen @ Jun 1 2007, 12:43 PM) *
Careful! Don't confuse what you KNOW with what you SUPPOSE. You no more KNOW that that terrain is "hazardous to the MER design" than you knew that there were dunes hazardous to that same design on Opportunity's route between Endurance and Victoria.


We didn't know what the terrain was like from Endurance to Victoria. We had a MOC image which showed this etched terrain - we didn't know what it was like. We didnt know if we were going to get through it. There was nothing else for miles and miles - so there was nothing to be lost by trying. Ignorance was bliss.

Now - we have the information from HiRISE and the ability to compare all the terrain of that huge traverse across Meridiani with surface imagery. We can actually see. There is no supposition involved whatsoever. We KNOW that the dunes around the Purgatory area are hazardous to the MER design. We know that. We can now see dunes that are bigger than that - vast swathes of them - ones that we would struggle to find a route around or through. Thus we KNOW that the terrain South of Victoria is more hazardous than the terrain we crossed to get to Victoria - we can see it - we can see the patterns in HiRISE imagery - and it's the same patterns we saw on the north edge of Erebus - a large dune field that we took a HUGE circumnavigation to get around.

People having been drawing dotted lines on 12m/pixel imagery going south of Victoria. That's meaningless. Yes - Ithaca is a good target. But going South of Victoria isn't. If this vehicle can do another 20-30k - if it can do another 5, 6, 7 years - maybe we'll get to Ithaca...but we sure as hell wont make it if we point SE and gun it. Your human analogy doesn't work - a human could walk it quite easily - these vehicles do not have the abilities of a Human. This wouldn't be hazardous to humans (any more than the act of walking on Mars is going to be inherantly hazardous ) - a human could walk this stuff without thinking.

There was good science at Erebus that we shot straight past - the best exposed festoons we've ever seen. Good science is a good reason. Erebus hasn't been mentioned just for a laugh - it's been mentioned because it was interesting.

This isn't about 'claiming' Opportunity is a priceless asset. It is. Fact. The science team think so, the engineering team think so. I think it would be a waste of that asset to send it into terrain that - given the data we have now - would be a navigation dead end. It's not about avoiding peril - anyone who has been here for the duration knows what Peril means:

http://marsrovers.jpl.nasa.gov/gallery/all/1/f/119/1F138744391EFF2809P1214L0M1.JPG

What's the problem driving over old ground? We're driving over old ground right now - back around Victoria - to get to good science we've already driven past at Duck Bay. Driving back to Erebus would not be that different. Spirit's doing it - back to Home Plate for science, back to Larrys Lookout two years ago. Turning around to re-visit something interesting that you couldn't give your full attention to is not a crime. Pointing at massive dune fields and putting to the foot to the floor is.

Is there not a contradiction in saying that their lifespan is finite - so let's spend 5 years driving South East through dune fields?

Again and again I've said we need more data before making a final decision - fighting and arguing about it now is premature - we're all jumping the gun. Perhaps we can make a solid case for a single HiRISE observation to answer this and submit it to HiROC - see if they'll oblige?

Doug

Posted by: gpurcell Jun 1 2007, 01:40 PM

The rover spent a heck of a lot of time getting to Victoria. In the absence of a new target at an easily attainable distance, it doesn't make any sense to me to leave the crater until the potential science there is exhausted. For what? More endless Sols over a trackless dune field? And in return, we'll sacrifice many sols of in-depth analysis of the layered rock of Victoria from inside the craters?

Posted by: djellison Jun 1 2007, 02:10 PM

I agree on that one - there's years of stuff here at Victoria to study yet.

Doug

Posted by: Edward Schmitz Jun 1 2007, 04:50 PM

QUOTE (gpurcell @ Jun 1 2007, 06:40 AM) *
The rover spent a heck of a lot of time getting to Victoria. In the absence of a new target at an easily attainable distance, it doesn't make any sense to me to leave the crater until the potential science there is exhausted. For what? More endless Sols over a trackless dune field? And in return, we'll sacrifice many sols of in-depth analysis of the layered rock of Victoria from inside the craters?

This whole topic is about when the science is EXHAUSTED. The question is, what do we do then? Which direction - what targets?

Posted by: djellison Jun 1 2007, 04:55 PM

But thinking about afterwards means you have to consider the in-between. Might we wear out the RAT at Victoria - or even have a wheel failure while inside. If we spend 2 months inside - then plan that invokes timelines of a couple of years might make sense. If we spend 2 years inside - then might a further 2 - 3 - 4 year plan be just too much.

Doug

Posted by: ustrax Jun 1 2007, 07:37 PM

QUOTE (djellison @ Jun 1 2007, 05:55 PM) *
If we spend 2 years inside - then might a further 2 - 3 - 4 year plan be just too much.


There's always http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=3215&view=findpost&p=69493... tongue.gif

Posted by: djellison Jun 1 2007, 08:00 PM

Actually - on another forum someone suggested that Opportunity start driving north to watch Phoenix land. I responded jokingly that that would be great if only it were in any way possible, feasable etc etc....only to discover he was serious.

ph34r.gif

Doug

Posted by: algorimancer Jun 1 2007, 08:33 PM

Getting back to the question of whether the region between Victoria and Ithaca is traversable... I just spent some time measuring dune sizes in areas where Opportunity was able to A) Traverse irrespective of dune direction (for example, a point midway between Endurance and Purgatory, B) Traverse between dunes with care (for example, a point midway between Purgatory and Eagle), and C) Not traverse (Purgatory 1 & 2, or crossing dunes between them). I then spot-checked the HiRISE image to the south and east of Victoria and compared. Not surprisingly, there is a big non-traversable region to the east of Vicky, and another rather far towards the south, but much (most) of the remainder of the region falls in the traversable realm, either resembling the vicinity of Eagle crater (scattered dunes over open stretches of evaporite) or relatively small dunes which Oppy can just roll over without worrying about getting stuck, with the occasional exceptional big dune scattered about which would be easy to navigate around. In other words, it may be far more easily traversable than our earlier cynically optimistic assumptions. When I compare this "ground truth" with the Themis day/night infrared images it looks to me like there may be a nearly direct route between Victoria and the western rim of Ithaca, much of which can be covered in hundreds of meter safe drives. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic :)

To get a sense of this, use the fully-zoomed-in HiRISE image viewer to capture a view of the dunes (at the same scale) mentioned in A & B above, then scan around in the image viewer and compare with the captured images. The terrain gets progressively easier to navigate as you move to the southeast.

Posted by: fredk Jun 2 2007, 05:07 PM

That's good to hear, algorimancer! We really have to remember that we haven't done any dune driving with the benefit of Hirise yet.

Posted by: FIN Mars Jun 3 2007, 07:50 PM

QUOTE (algorimancer @ May 30 2007, 04:20 PM) *
The HiRISE coverage is insufficient to map the complete route in detail, but there's enough to show that Oppy can make it to the edge of coverage without too much difficulty, particularly factoring in the new nav software. As ustrax pointed out earlier,

http://marsoweb.nas.nasa.gov/HiRISE/hirise_images/PSP/orb_001400/PSP_001414_1780/
EXCESS QUOTING REMOVED

great maps, but what about spirit?
I didn't found spirit's landing site HiRISE maps from here > http://marsoweb.nas.nasa.gov/HiRISE/hirise_images/

sad.gif

Posted by: stevesliva Jun 4 2007, 03:15 AM

What is to the north of Endurance? If we retrace the path to some extent, what lies farther north?

Posted by: edstrick Jun 4 2007, 06:29 AM

What's north of Endurance is one or two of those "dimple" craters, with a white ring <in b&w pic> of sulfate rock surrounding a progressively downward curving slope that then "un-curves" to a flattish floor often with a patch of dunes in it.

My take on all these is that they were relatively fresh craters that were formed BEFORE the sulfate rock that now covers them. They seem to have had a level fill of unknown material, wiere capped with the sulfate rock, and then when the water went away, the fill material compressed and the caprock dimpled downward.

Posted by: PaulM Aug 16 2007, 12:01 PM

Oppy seems to be surviving the storm and assuming that Oppy gets in and out of Victoria crater it seems worthwhile to continue discussing where Oppy might go after Victoria

Steve Squyres is quoted in the 3rd of June Planetary Society MER update as making the following statement:

"Everyone at JPL, on our science team, and at NASA Headquarters, felt that if we were ever going to do this the time was now," Squyres added. "The kind of stuff we want to do inside this crater really requires a healthy six-wheeled rover, which is what we have now. We're interested in getting in there, doing our business, and getting out while the vehicle still has those six wheels to enable us to climb out. Then we've got a lot more science to do on the plains around the crater," he said, noting that the scientists already have their eyes on the cobbles and other deeply eroded craters like Erebus back out on the plains. "But now is the time to enter Victoria Crater."

The way I read this is that Oppy might well be sent back to Erebus itself and if so this might be part of a bigger plan to drive back to the good driving country around Eagle crater. My guess is that Oppy will be sent North past Erebus following its old tracks so as to get off the etched terrain as quickly as possible and then will head due North.

Large interesting craters do seem in short supply north of Eagle but at the very least if Oppy travels more than a few km North of Eagle it will be able to sample older strata than that exposed in Victoria and Endurance craters.

What I would like to see is Oppy being driven North off the Merridiani heamatite deposits altogether. Perhaps there is an exposed section of the base of the Merridiani deposits North of Eagle crater?

Does anyone know how far North of Eagle crater Oppy would have to drive to drive off the area of heamatite deposits that were mapped from orbit before Oppy landed?

Posted by: djellison Aug 16 2007, 12:07 PM

QUOTE (PaulM @ Aug 16 2007, 01:01 PM) *
if so this might be part of a bigger plan to drive back to the good driving country around Eagle crater. My guess is that Oppy will be sent North past Erebus following its old tracks so as to get off the etched terrain as quickly as possible and then will head due North.


It took two years, flat out, to get from Endurance to Victoria. The dunes north of Erebus were slow, nasty driving. I can't imagine a scenario where you would want to re-encounter that terrain.

Posted by: Floyd Aug 16 2007, 12:35 PM

Welcome to UMSF PaulM.



I'm not sure exactly how many km Opportunity would have to go to get off hematite deposits altogether, but I think multiples of the total driving distance to date--which, as Doug indicated, makes it an unlikely goal.



But I'm sure SS and team will try and get the maximum science out of what ever they do.



Floyd

Posted by: algorimancer Aug 16 2007, 01:03 PM

QUOTE (Floyd @ Aug 16 2007, 07:35 AM) *
...would have to go to get off hematite deposits altogether, but I think multiples of the total driving distance to date.


On the other hand, a drive to the west rim of Big Crater/Ithaca to the east/southeast of Victoria would achieve much the same thing, as the rim seems to rise above the hematite, as well as likely predating it.

biggrin.gif

Posted by: antoniseb Aug 16 2007, 01:16 PM

QUOTE (algorimancer @ Aug 16 2007, 07:03 AM) *
On the other hand, a drive to the west rim of Big Crater/Ithaca to the east/southeast of Victoria would achieve much the same thing, as the rim seems to rise above the hematite, as well as likely predating it.


The idea of Opportunity making an Odyssey to Ithaca appeals to me. It would be better still if it had a wife, son, and swineherder there waiting for it.

Posted by: Tom Tamlyn Aug 16 2007, 02:44 PM

And don't forget Argos, the aged, faithful dog.

TTT

Posted by: PaulM Aug 16 2007, 06:47 PM

I find it interesting to speculate where the "deeply eroded craters like Erebus" that Steve Squyres says Opportunity will head towards might be.

The problem is that once Opportunity leaves the Victoria ejecta blanket it will be literaly "stuck in a rut" again. Opportunity has problems crossing dune crests and so the most obvious directions to send Opportunity are NNW back to Erebus or SSE in the direction of Ithaca crater.

This means that for me the most obvious "deeply eroded crater" to head towards is Erebus itself.

Opportunity did cross dune crests between sols 621 and 626 but was only able to do so easily because the dunes were low.

I do not have the bandwidth to download HIRISE pictures at maximum resolution but if I did it would be interesting to speculate about routes to other eroded craters close to Victoria that Opportunity could reach by making a combination of NNW-SSE trending legs between high dune crests and legs diagonaly across those low dunes that exist in the Victoria area? Are there any patches of low dunes in the Victoria area?

Posted by: mhoward Aug 16 2007, 08:55 PM

Speaking of the "Oddysey," or the "Grand Voyage" as I call it, there was a new MRO image a few months ago (PSP_004289_1780_RED) that covered more of the terrain south of Victoria. Maybe some of you noticed it. In the far southeast of the image, there is a type of terrain that I don't remember seeing before in MRO images of the area. It looks dark, almost giving the visual impression of an area that has been "scraped" clean somehow. The area is just southeast of "Mini-Endurance", a slightly smaller twin of Endurance Crater which is about as far south-southeast of Victoria as Endurance is north. I'm not a geologist, but I found it intriguing. A clip of the image from IAS Viewer is attached.

I stared for some time at the potential path south. It seems to me like there are some rough drifts immediately south, but perhaps not much worse than what the rover has already dealt with. I think the path gets better the farther south you go, and around Mini-Endurance the terrain looks about as good as it did around Endurance.

Hey, I can dream, can't I ...?

 

Posted by: algorimancer Aug 16 2007, 10:52 PM

QUOTE (mhoward @ Aug 16 2007, 03:55 PM) *
....not much worse than what the rover has already dealt with. I think the path gets better the farther south you go...

Yes indeed. I came to much the same conclusion back on the last page of this thread. Good to know I'm not the only one looking smile.gif I wish I were driving.

Posted by: BrianL Feb 5 2008, 06:23 AM

So, with the news that it is time to move on, and get back out on the plains, should we resurrect this thread? Perhaps not with the pie in the sky goals previously mentioned (not that there's anything wrong with that) but with a look to some realistic, obtainable targets that people might be willing to speculate on?

Personally, I'm looking forward to some new adventures. I freely admit I'm a sight-see-er, not a scientist. As much as I was thankful to reach the relative safety of Victoria after an eternity in potential Purgatories, and as beautiful and rewarding as it has been, I find myself longing for the daily tension of roving the ripples. Call me mad, just don't call me late for dinner.

Brian

Posted by: ngunn Feb 5 2008, 02:03 PM

Am I missing something? Did we not come all this way for the deepest ever look into the stratigraphy of Mars, and are we not at present barely below the pre-Victoria ground surface? I can only guess it's too dangrous to go further in. Well if it is time to exit again then for my money the most interesting target in the vicinity is - Victoria Crater. Anyone for a rim traverse in the opposite direction?

Posted by: djellison Feb 5 2008, 02:32 PM

There's hopefully another few metres to go 'in' yet. Then a few weeks, I would expect, of study there. Then another few weeks of getting a little closer to the cape, get higher res shots there, and then out.

Thereafter? We've got to turn left, we already went right smile.gif

Posted by: helvick Feb 5 2008, 02:34 PM

The only thing that can be reasonably expected for Opportunity beyond Victoria if she were to leave is a gradual crawl into oblivion. The exploration motive that would push for a drive back out into the Meridiani wastes has some emotional appeal but I can't see that anyone who was actually in charge of such a multi-million dollar explorer could decide to waste it on such a pointless exercise.

If the team have decided that the current location has been exhausted then I'm with ngunn - continue on along the counterclockwise path and find something else to photograph, poke and analyse to the best of her ability.

Posted by: BrianL Feb 5 2008, 07:29 PM

QUOTE (helvick @ Feb 5 2008, 08:34 AM) *
The only thing that can be reasonably expected for Opportunity beyond Victoria if she were to leave is a gradual crawl into oblivion.


Possibly I'm reading too much into Steve's comments. They might very well have additional work at, but out of, the crater in the works. Sure sounds like they are planning to move on in the TPS update:

Opportunity meanwhile, will be wrapping up the Victoria campaign and roving onward, but where exactly has not been determined. "The issue is how long do we dare stay inside Victoria Crater? At what point do we decide it's time to get out on the plains and do something new?" said Squyres. "The rover is doing great and is in great health, but if we lose a wheel, it's going to be tough getting out." There is no reason to suspect there is anything wrong with Opportunity's wheels. "But the characteristics of some of these failures is you don't see them coming. We're pushing these rovers awful hard." Opportunity's next major destination awaits a decision the MER team will probably make soon.

Brian

Posted by: fredk Feb 5 2008, 11:12 PM

Potential targets for after Victoria that have been mentioned in the past include "cobbles" out on the plains and ancient eroded craters like Erebus (I think it was the "festoons" that interested them most about Erebus).

It might seem that the parts of the rim we haven't explored yet would be obvious targets, but the real question to ask is what is the potential scientific value of targets. I've had the impression that the results so far at Victoria haven't been too remarkable scientifically (but of course stunning visually!). Squyres etal must decide whether there's potentially much worthwhile to be gained from exploring the rest of the rim and entering Victoria elsewhere, to get some sense of the lateral variability of the layers in this region, or if the potential returns are greater out on the plains. As far as more time inside Victoria, apart from the question of traversability they seem to be quite concerned about the possibility of wheel failure trapping the rover.

Posted by: brellis Feb 6 2008, 12:14 AM


Would descending deeper into Victoria affect the amount of sunlight it's getting?

Posted by: alan Feb 6 2008, 12:30 AM

QUOTE (BrianL @ Feb 5 2008, 01:29 PM) *
Possibly I'm reading too much into Steve's comments. They might very well have additional work at, but out of, the crater in the works. Sure sounds like they are planning to move on in the TPS update:

Opportunity meanwhile, will be wrapping up the Victoria campaign and roving onward, but where exactly has not been determined. "The issue is how long do we dare stay inside Victoria Crater? At what point do we decide it's time to get out on the plains and do something new?" said Squyres. "The rover is doing great and is in great health, but if we lose a wheel, it's going to be tough getting out." There is no reason to suspect there is anything wrong with Opportunity's wheels. "But the characteristics of some of these failures is you don't see them coming. We're pushing these rovers awful hard." Opportunity's next major destination awaits a decision the MER team will probably make soon.

Brian

Actually there was a mention of the right front wheel drawing excess current in one of Emily's rover updates

QUOTE
Extremely cold temperatures have also caused mechanical problems. Recently, Opportunity's right front wheel began drawing excess electrical current. This is achingly reminiscent of Spirit's right front wheel in 2004. The demand for more electrical current suggests that the wheel motor is working harder than usual. In the case of Spirit, engineers suspect that, like motor oil that can't handle freezing temperatures on Earth, the gel lubricant failed to flow properly and that caused its right front wheel to fail. Rover drivers have compensated for Spirit's lame wheel by driving on the other five wheels, but the loss has affected the rover's mountain-climbing ability. And, if Opportunity's wheel fails while it is conducting its work inside Victoria, it could mean the end of its record-breaking roving.
http://www.planetary.org/news/2007/0630_Mars_Exploration_Rovers_Update_Spirit.html

Posted by: Shaka Feb 6 2008, 04:55 AM

QUOTE (brellis @ Feb 5 2008, 02:14 PM) *
Would descending deeper into Victoria affect the amount of sunlight it's getting?

No more than if you took the shades off. cool.gif

Posted by: fredk Feb 6 2008, 05:01 AM

QUOTE (brellis @ Feb 6 2008, 12:14 AM) *
Would descending deeper into Victoria affect the amount of sunlight it's getting?
Seriously, not much at all, as long as you stayed well away from the cliffs. As you move in, the sun would be blocked just near sunrise and sunset, when the sunlight is hitting the arrays at a very shallow angle and so you're getting very little power anyway.

Posted by: Shaka Feb 6 2008, 06:01 AM

And, since your southerly tilt would decrease as you approached the center, your power levels should show some increase.
Like removing the shades. cool.gif

Posted by: SpaceListener Feb 7 2008, 03:14 AM

I think that the best return of investment for science is not to leave it standing around Victoria Crater which is already well known. Instead of standing, go away from Victoria Crater to some place in which the MER team think that it is the best. I have hope by roving, might have any surprises or any interesting stuff to study.

Posted by: Shaka Feb 7 2008, 05:22 AM

Listen, SL, I know where you're coming from. Seems like years since we were afraid to leave the computer lest we miss what was over the next rise. But the truth is that we entered Victoria in the first place to study its deepest strata. Those should tell us about the deeper past of the Meridiani Plain. More than we can learn anyplace else within country miles of here. We are only now approaching the level of those strata. Have we reached yet the age of the festoon ripples?
Gazing down at it from the bathtub ring doesn't count. We have to get down there and give it the old IDD right in the patootie!
Patience.
wink.gif

Posted by: James Sorenson Feb 7 2008, 09:31 AM

I agree with Shaka that we must continue down the crater. There is still alot of stuff to look at inside the crater, and science that needs to be done. However with Oppy crossing a boundry were there is much more blueberrys and dust, there is not much if not none of the crater wall layering exposed further down. The best science targets that I see is a more detailed study of those razerback features as we go down, and a close up analysis of Cape Verde, and Cabo Frio layering. But Much of the strata on those promentory's is reminisent to the stuff that oppy is now exploring.

Posted by: PaulM Feb 7 2008, 06:12 PM

Two distinct topics seem to being discussed in this thread. The first is what the contributors would like to see Oppy do next and the second is the statements from JPL regarding what Oppy will do next. It seems to be clear from the JPL statements that Oppy will drive out of Victoria soon and not very long afterwards will drive away from Victoria altogether.

The reasons given for driving out of Victoria are that Oppy can not safely drive much further into Victoria because is too much sand between and on rock slabs. It should be remembered that Oppy had considerable problems driving up to Burns Cliff in Endurance crater and very nearly slipped back onto the large rock Wompay.The second reason for driving out of Victoria is that Oppy's might be expected someday to loose a wheel much as Spirit has.

I would really like Oppy to complete its circumnavigation of Victoria crater. However reading between the lines of JPL press releases I can see that from a strictly scientific point of view Oppy is unlikely to see anything in the 2/3 of the rim of Victoria Crater that it has not investigated that it has not seen in the 1/3 of the rim that it has already investigated. I think that probably the only target worth investigating from a scientific point of view in the wall of Victoria crater is the linear feature close to the Soup Dragon.

I think that Oppy will drive fast South or South East in the next few months. An advantage of doing this is that I think Oppy would then be able to sample strata higher up the stratigraphic section than any exposed in Victoria or Endurance crater. I understand that Oppy sampled some such strata as it drove over the gentle hill overlooking Victoria crater. However I think that Oppy would be able to sample much higher strata in the stratigraphic section if it drives South of Victoria.

One target that I think would be worth investigating if Oppy drives South would be Explorer/Sofi crater. To me Explorer looks fresher than Endurance crater and I think that the contrast between the Endurance, Erebus, Victoria and Explorer craters would be interesting.

One thing to note about any drive South is that it would be difficult for Oppy to avoid driving for a long distance along the rim of Victoria crater which means that many more beautiful views of Victoria crater could be expected before Oppy drives away from Victoria crater forever.

Posted by: centsworth_II Feb 7 2008, 06:43 PM

There was once some talk of going back to Erebus.
I wonder if that is still a possibility and what other
possibilities are on the table as far as the real
deciders are concerned. (No, not G.W. Bush.)

Posted by: brellis Feb 7 2008, 07:12 PM

The http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?showtopic=3215 thread was an interesting discussion. Those annotated wide field orbiter shots of Victoria and 'Big Crater' provide a perspective on the size of these features.

Posted by: tedstryk Feb 7 2008, 09:59 PM

If there is compelling science that is unfinished and can be accomplished with Oppy's instruments, by all means go back to Erebus (or anywhere else). From a photographic standpoint, following the route that brellis posted would be cool in the sense that the bit of crater rim may be very different from what we have seen (and possibly made of different types of rock), although actually making it would be relatively unlikely.

Posted by: CosmicRocker Feb 8 2008, 06:24 AM

After having taken the risk of entering this crater, it is difficult for me to imagine the team not investigating the deepest available layers. Since those layers are so near and apparently accessible, the additional risk seems nominal.

Completing the circumnavigation might be fun, but I doubt that would be the best use of remaining resources. After Opportunity leaves Victoria, I'm open to exploration in almost any direction that leads to new bedrock observations. In the past I have argued that a return visit to Erebus would be a good idea, but I also think observations of available bedrock in widely separated places is a good idea.

Since we aparently have a rather small vertical selection of rocks to explore, Opportunity would be wise to continue exploration of the lateral variability of the bedrock over as wide an area as possible.

Posted by: djellison Feb 8 2008, 08:45 AM

QUOTE (CosmicRocker @ Feb 8 2008, 06:24 AM) *
... deepest available layers......apparently accessible....


That's the thing isn't it. IS it accessible. We don't know that. It's fairly clear that if it is (in terms of navigability AND accessibility of the actual rock under the dust/soil covering) , they'll try to get to it. If not, they'll move on. We really don't want to spend longer or 'use' more rover than is necessary within the crater, as a wheel failure would appear to be not too far away, and with it - a navigational tomb stone.

Doug

Posted by: tanjent Feb 8 2008, 04:22 PM

Isn't the best roving plan for Oppy the one that maximizes the expected scientific value of the remainder of the mission? If so, then that isn't necessarily the same as the plan that maximizes the rover lifetime, or the chances of getting back up.

Spirit, in the course of its mission, has several times wandered across the borderline between one geological province and another. The bottomlands had one story to tell and then the hills had a different story, and Eldorado and the home plate environs also offered some new and non-obvious insights as the payoff for horizontal trekking. (Horizontal here means along the surface, although of course there were hills involved.)

But Opportunity landed by design on a big plain way larger than its roving radius, and I am sure I recall quotes from Steve and the other panelists during the early press briefings in which the mission at Meridiani was described as a search for holes - craters, that is - punched in the flat landscape to allow access to earlier strata. As we consider pulling the rover out of the largest of these holes before getting a closer look at the strata at the foot of the capes, just ask what are the hoped-for gains from further horizontal exploration outside the crater. The two-year hike down from Endurance to Victoria was undertaken because it promised access to deeper, older strata that were not accessible elsewhere. One of the reasons the journey took two years was because a lot of scientific investigation was performed along the way, and the strata accessible on the surface and in the shallower, more eroded craters are already quite well known to the science teams on that basis. (If I am wrong please correct me. This could change the arithmetic - but it ought to be more than "I'd like to have another look at that cross-bedding in Erebus" because one is balancing a second-or-third look against a "first look" at as-yet unseen strata.)

"Big Crater" seems way too far off for any reasonable hope of getting there. That being the case, before leaving Victoria someone better informed to really needs to explain to me why the risk-adjusted scientific payoffs now seem more fruitful outside the crater than at or near the pedestals of one or two of the capes. It's not clear how close we can hope to get, or exactly the odds on losing a wheel, or some other technical breakdown and not being able to climb out. But the capes are not too different from one another, so one campaign of a couple months' duration would likely suffice. I believe Burns Cliff was investigated in the local winter season. If it means running the same risks that were run back at Burns cliff, then I can't see leaving it undone. It's what we came to do - to look at the lowest, oldest rocks.

Peter

Posted by: ustrax Feb 8 2008, 04:37 PM

QUOTE (tanjent @ Feb 8 2008, 04:22 PM) *
"Big Crater" seems way too far off for any reasonable hope of getting there. That being the case, before leaving Victoria someone better informed to really needs to explain to me why the risk-adjusted scientific payoffs now seem more fruitful outside the crater than at or near the pedestals of one or two of the capes.


Well, I'm not better informed but here's my take at it...

"As you set out for Ithaca
hope your road is a long one,
full of adventure, full of discovery.
Laistrygonians, Cyclops,
angry Poseidon - don't be afraid of them:
you' ll never find things like that on your way
as long as you keep your thoughts raised high,
as long as a rare excitement
stirs your spirit and your body."


Get us out of the hole Steve!!!
This rovers were made for roving!!!
wheel.gif wheel.gif wheel.gif
biggrin.gif

Posted by: centsworth_II Feb 8 2008, 04:44 PM

QUOTE (djellison @ Feb 8 2008, 03:45 AM) *
...a wheel failure would appear to be not too far away, and with it -
a navigational tomb stone.

A failure that would prevent Opportunity from exiting Victoria, over
solid surface, would probably also trap the rover in the sand ripples
of the Meridiani plain. For that reason, I see crossing back to Erebus
-- or going anywhere over the ripples -- as being at least as risky as
further exploration of Victoria. Perhaps the coward's way out is to
spend the rest of the mission exploring Victoria's rim and apron.


Posted by: ustrax Feb 8 2008, 05:39 PM

I just asked SS if they are really considering leaving Victoria already?
Where to next, Ithaca? Erebus? Circumnavigation?...

He left me bitting my nails from here on... smile.gif

"Wait and see... you might be surprised. - SS"


Posted by: centsworth_II Feb 8 2008, 05:50 PM

QUOTE (ustrax @ Feb 8 2008, 12:39 PM) *
"Wait and see... you might be surprised. - SS"

Wow. Sounds like the producers of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_(TV_series)

Posted by: ilbasso Feb 8 2008, 09:10 PM

My memory may be foggy (hey, I just became a grandfather!), but wasn't it the "pedal to the metal" driving that immediately preceded the first wheel problems on both Oppy and Spirit? I remember that Spirit started having wheel issues after the dash from Bonneville to the Promontory. And Oppy also had some problems beginning after several successive sols of record-breaking drives going south from Endurance (not to mention getting snagged in Purgatory). I really like the excitement of covering a lot of ground quickly, but it appears to be hard on the rovers if sustained for more than a couple of sols.

If we're going to be mythical, let's envision Oppy sprouting wings like Pegasus and floating to Ithaca on the gentle autumn Zephyrs.

Posted by: ElkGroveDan Feb 9 2008, 12:52 AM

I predict that they will be heading back to the smooth plains to the North, but will be taking a wide swing to the East to avoid the heavy dunes in the Erebus region.

Posted by: CosmicRocker Feb 9 2008, 05:43 AM

QUOTE (djellison @ Feb 8 2008, 02:45 AM) *
That's the thing isn't it. IS it accessible. We don't know that. It's fairly clear that if it is (in terms of navigability AND accessibility of the actual rock under the dust/soil covering) , they'll try to get to it. ...
Yeah. That's exactly what it comes down to in the end. We can only guess what the handlers will actually decide to do. We know they will be cautious in their navigation, but we also know that the reason the rover was directed to Victoria was because it was the deepest hole in the neighborhood.

After making the difficult, but fascinating trek to Victoria, we've learned a lot, but we are also disappointed to discover that this hole has not exposed the deeper layers we hoped to find. There are strong reasons why this rover should try to collect data from the deepest rocks it can access here, before moving on.

If they decide to move on, rather than study the deeper layers here, it's a long walk to a bigger hole. It seems that the best use we can get from the rover is to go somewhere else. Wherever these rovers go on this planet, they will make discoveries. smile.gif

Posted by: ustrax Feb 11 2008, 08:55 AM

QUOTE (CosmicRocker @ Feb 9 2008, 05:43 AM) *
If they decide to move on, rather than study the deeper layers here, it's a long walk to a bigger hole. It seems that the best use we can get from the rover is to go somewhere else. Wherever these rovers go on this planet, they will make discoveries. smile.gif


I totally agree with that point CosmicRocker and regarding Ithaca...huummm...looks far...I told Steve that the teaser induced me to that on the clouds nail bitting frenzy...then he pulled me back to solid ground...
"I don't think you'll find it to be all that dramatic. But we're not ready to leave the crater yet"...
Not that epic but it's what we've got for now... wink.gif



Posted by: Stu Feb 11 2008, 12:00 PM

I'm not sure if this has any relevence to the In/Out discussion to be honest, but I came across this very interesting HiRISE crater image whilst browsing recently and it set something buzzing in my head...



http://hirise-pds.lpl.arizona.edu/PDS/EXTRAS/RDR/PSP/ORB_003500_003599/PSP_003590_1775/PSP_003590_1775_RED.abrowse.jpg

... and, well, looking at the outcrops along its rim made me realise that Victoria is really shallow, and that after studying the new layer, with just that pool of sand ahead of us, perhaps we're not going to see an awful lot more here? (unless we drive closer to an outcrop and do some detailed studying of it...)

Just thinking aloud. Others will have more insightful comments and observations, I'm sure smile.gif

Posted by: Floyd Feb 11 2008, 04:44 PM

I like your crater Stu. How far is it from Opportunity--maybe she can visit rolleyes.gif

Posted by: algorimancer Feb 11 2008, 10:07 PM

Ithaca (Big Crater), or die trying. One advantage which we have now is high-resolution orbiter pics of the terrain, so there are unlikely to be any really troublesome surprises, and the dunes become less troublesome to the southeast. Ithaca is the most interesting and uniquely different feature conceivably accessible, and given enough sunlight and lack of hardware breakdowns, the more recent software update should make it at least as achievable as was Victoria.

Posted by: BrianL Feb 11 2008, 10:18 PM

QUOTE (algorimancer @ Feb 11 2008, 04:07 PM) *
Ithaca (Big Crater), or die trying. One advantage which we have now is high-resolution orbiter pics of the terrain


Do we have HiRise pics that cover the entire route between Victoria and Ithaca? If so, please point me to them.

Thanks
Brian

Posted by: climber Feb 11 2008, 10:51 PM

QUOTE (algorimancer @ Feb 11 2008, 11:07 PM) *
Ithaca is the most interesting and uniquely different feature conceivably accessible, and given enough sunlight and lack of hardware breakdowns, the more recent software update should make it at least as achievable as was Victoria.

It's amazing to have the luxury to have such an idea so late in the mission! I agree with you for a simple reason : if something brake in the way to Ithaca we'll be back to a simple lander instead of a rover. Once Vicky will be done, I see no advantage of having a lander at Vicky instead of on the plain; so let's go to Ithaca instead of spending years at Vicky or going back to known places wheel.gif . Need two years ? So what ?
This will be my choice.

Posted by: djellison Feb 11 2008, 11:10 PM

QUOTE (BrianL @ Feb 11 2008, 10:18 PM) *
Do we have HiRise pics that cover the entire route between Victoria and Ithaca?


No, we don't. We have quite a lot of terrain covered : http://hirise.lpl.arizona.edu/PSP_004289_1780 : but not all of it. Given our recent news of early symptoms of wheel failure, my opinion on this is firmer than ever before. If, after exhausting every possible scientific target in and around the Victoria annulus there are genuinely no other valid options, then why not. But I don't see that happening before the wheel failure is likely to occur, and at that point, it is, imho, a fundamentally impossible challenge. I see little point in abandoning accessible science for a target that all sensible consideration would deem inaccessible. With a brand new rover without 12km on the clock (2000% of it's design life), maybe, just maybe, it would be possible - and even if it were, it took two years to get from Endurance to Victoria. Do the maths. In a romantic world without technical failures and dune fields, bring it on. Sadly, that's not the case, and I genuinely, honestly believe people who suggest it should be done before every other possible option has been thoroughly explored are sending the rover to an earlier-than-necessary death.

http://global-data.mars.asu.edu/ctx/img/P01_001612_1780_XI_02S005W and http://global-data.mars.asu.edu/ctx/img/P01_001612_1780_XI_02S005W probably offer the best overview of the route. The easy 200m/sol terrain is visible as a slightly lighter tone that extends from Endurance for several km north - in a band that runs East-West. There is etched terrain similar to that of the Erebus-to-Beagle run (20-50m/sol with occasional dune fields ) runs west for a dozen KM, then south for a couple of dozen KM. I would suggest that might make more sense than anything else if you wanted to cover some ground.

But, lets be honest, all we're really doing is guessing. If we knew all the plans, it wouldn't be anywhere near as exciting smile.gif

Doug

(PS - on the flip side, screw it - lets follow the thin ribbon of etched terrain E, then NE, the E, then S toward Ithaca that Ustrax suggested a long time ago. POinting SE and hitting 'go' would still be a bad idea)

Posted by: Stu Feb 12 2008, 12:14 AM

I think it's pretty safe to say that I'm one of the most optimistic, rose-tinted-glasses-wearing, romantic rover-hugging members of the board, but even I can't put my hand on my heart and call for a road trip to Ithaca, because it seems to me that apart from all the technical, rover-in-peril related reasons already given - and they're all good reasons - there's one thing, one BIG thing, against it.

There's nothing to see there!

Take a look at this picture Ustrax posted back at the beginning of this thread...



... IF Oppy survived the trek to Ithaca, what would greet her there? Well, following Ustrax's route, she'd first come up against some Columbia-scale hills. Now, she's not going to climb those and look o'er the other side into the crater, is she? ( And even if she did what would lie ON the other side? A big, flat, featureless plate of a crater floor, that's what. ) So, she'd have to go "into" the crater from a bit further north... then what? It's a great big swathe of Meridiani, nothing more. True, there are some very impressive-looking mountains on the other side, but only impressive when seen from above; if you were walking alongside Oppy when she arrived at Ithaca, wouldn't those distant mountains just look like mere bumps on the horizon?

So, no sweeping vistas or jaw dropping panoramas at Ithaca. Good science then? Well, not for me to say, not being an expert, but surely Oppy couldn't study any rocks there at deeper levels than she's doing at Victoria? Or am I missing some outcrops on that image?

All in all, as much as it hurts the romantic poet in me, I have to say that, IMHO, Ithaca is a pretty poor target. Going there would be driving for driving's sake, with the risk of rolling to a sudden and juddering halt a dozen times each driving sol, leaving the rover - now a lander, essentially - stuck right on the corner of "no" and "where", with just the sky to stare up at and the distant horizon to glower at until she eventually died.

However... move her north, back to some of those smaller craters and features, and she could look for changes. Or keep her at Victoria, inside or outside - preferably outside - and even if she grinds to a halt she still has a lot to offer through monitoring changes in the vicinity, looking for frost or seismic events, checking for dust movement within the crater, etc etc...

I just don't think Ithaca is a realistic or useful target for our brave gal.

Posted by: djellison Feb 12 2008, 12:44 AM

Actually - that's a good point. 1183_0000 HRSC ob has Vic and Ithaca in it.

Meanwhile, from HRSC view. - indicating something like 250m of elevation change from the rim to the floor. I'll have an animation session with it tomorrow night.

Doug




 

Posted by: dvandorn Feb 12 2008, 04:18 AM

I'd just like to toss in the observation that Spirit first showed signs of increased current flow to its failing wheel motor when it arrived at the foot of the Columbia Hills at about Sol 258. By careful handling of her roving, it took nearly a thousand more sols for the wheel to fail, and some of the mileage put on her in between including scrabbling up to the top of Husband Hill.

Just because Oppy is showing signs that her already lightly lame wheel is beginning a slide into failure, is there any real reason to anticipate this failure occurring in a far less number of sols than it did between first symptoms and complete wheel failure on Spirit?

-the other Doug

Posted by: djellison Feb 12 2008, 08:31 AM

QUOTE (dvandorn @ Feb 12 2008, 04:18 AM) *
careful handling of her roving, it took nearly a thousand more sols for the wheel to fail,


And how many km. (answer, not that many)

Now how many km to Ithaca. (answer, many )

So, if you want to consider a 20km, then yes - there are real reasons to anticipate this happening 'sooner' than it did on Spirit.

Doug



Posted by: ustrax Feb 12 2008, 10:20 AM

QUOTE (djellison @ Feb 11 2008, 11:10 PM) *
(PS - on the flip side, screw it - lets follow the thin ribbon of etched terrain E, then NE, the E, then S toward Ithaca that Ustrax suggested a long time ago. Pointing SE and hitting 'go' would still be a bad idea)


Can't find that map...do you know where it is Doug? rolleyes.gif
That image you posted is quite awesome, never seen it before, could you pass some more info about it? Is that the maximum resolution? And a legend for the colours does it exist?

Posted by: djellison Feb 12 2008, 12:41 PM

It's from here : http://hrscview.fu-berlin.de/cgi-bin/ion-p?page=entry.ion

Doug

Posted by: ustrax Feb 12 2008, 03:20 PM

Thanks Doug! And http://www.lyle.org/~markoff/collections/meridiani_themis.jpg...and http://www.msss.com/moc_gallery/e07_e12/images/E11/E1101328.html... smile.gif
The puzzle, with the current available images, is almost complete:




Posted by: dvandorn Feb 12 2008, 04:44 PM

QUOTE (djellison @ Feb 12 2008, 02:31 AM) *
And how many km. (answer, not that many)

Now how many km to Ithaca. (answer, many )

So, if you want to consider a 20km, then yes - there are real reasons to anticipate this happening 'sooner' than it did on Spirit.

Oh, I'm not saying that the wheel ought to be good for a 20-km trek. I'm just wondering why, at the very outset of a problem that took two Martian years to progress from initial symptom to complete failure on Spirit, we seem to be hearing "Oh, my, will the wheel last long enough for us to get out of Victoria?"

Shouldn't we anticipate that, for example, Oppy ought to be able to putter around Victoria and its annulus for another Martian year or two before its wheel locks in place, rendering her still mobile but much slower and unable to handle steep slopes?

-the other Doug

Posted by: djellison Feb 12 2008, 04:56 PM

QUOTE (dvandorn @ Feb 12 2008, 04:44 PM) *
Shouldn't we anticipate that, for example, Oppy ought to be able to putter around Victoria and its annulus for another Martian year or two before its wheel locks in place, rendering her still mobile but much slower and unable to handle steep slopes?


Another year or two, or maybe just another month or two, or maybe tomorrow. We don't know. We're guessing. You should be thinking km's, not years though I think. What is most probably is that it will fail at some point, and the middle of a dune field probably isn't the best place for it to happen.

Doug

Posted by: ustrax Feb 12 2008, 05:24 PM

QUOTE (ustrax @ Feb 12 2008, 03:20 PM) *
...and http://www.msss.com/moc_gallery/e07_e12/images/E11/E1101328.html...


You guys help the dumb here with the maths...EDITED: forget it, got the answer already... rolleyes.gif

Bridges...terrasses...there must be an abyss here somewhere... tongue.gif




Posted by: BrianL Feb 12 2008, 07:20 PM

Sorry Ustrax, even if Oppy made it to the near rim of Ithaca, any abysses in those features are still several years of driving away, even without the scientists wanting to do their pesky poking and prodding. And surely, we would want to take the time to climb one of them big hills on the near edge. laugh.gif

I'm wondering, now that we have Doug onside for the Ithaca trek, does that mean the dreamers have simply worn down his resistance, or does he know something he's not telling us? unsure.gif

Personally, I like the crater due west of Victoria, about two "endurances" away. It is closer than Ithaca, seems to have a nice path of etched terrain to follow, and the closest rim appears to have good exposed layers deeper than Victoria, assuming the slope is traversable. Has this crater been discussed in past speculations? Have we given it a name yet?

Brian

Posted by: djellison Feb 12 2008, 08:37 PM

QUOTE (BrianL @ Feb 12 2008, 07:20 PM) *
we have Doug onside for the Ithaca trek,


You don't really. What I've said is that there are many valid science targets in the Victoria aria, even back up to Erebus etc. Once all of those are exhausted and no other options are available, then a not-quite-utterly-horrific-but-still-idiotically-lengthy route to Ithaca would be a valid next step, if for no other reason than to cover ground in any direction.

Doug

Posted by: dvandorn Feb 13 2008, 03:44 AM

QUOTE (djellison @ Feb 12 2008, 10:56 AM) *
Another year or two, or maybe just another month or two, or maybe tomorrow. We don't know. We're guessing. You should be thinking km's, not years though I think. What is most probably is that it will fail at some point, and the middle of a dune field probably isn't the best place for it to happen.

I agree that a nondescript dune field isn't the optimum place for Oppy to become a stationary lander mission. The only thing I guess I'm taking exception to is the comment "We don't know. We're guessing."

Doesn't it make sense that, with an entire failure sequence with which to compare (of identical equipment under similar environmental circumstances), we *do* have the ability to do more than guess? Isn't there a certain amount of engineering rigor to making meaningful projections of the eventual failure of Oppy's wheel based on the observed failure of Spirit's?

smile.gif

-the other Doug

Posted by: Shaka Feb 13 2008, 04:43 AM

Let it be noted in the log of the starship Enterprise that I here voluntarily relinquished my opportunity to leap in with both feet punching, in deference to "nprev", who can better render justice from the font of technical engineering expertise.
cool.gif

Posted by: hendric Feb 13 2008, 06:10 AM

oDoug,
We just can't make any statistical inferences based on only one sample point. Sure, Spirit lasted a good long while, but that doesn't tell us anything about Opportunity, simply because we don't have enough information, ie look up Law of Small Numbers. Even if you argued the 12 wheels are enough to give us some statistics, we are stuck because we would be comparing their first 1500 sols against their next 1500 sols, which are obviously very different.

If we had numbers on average time to fail at 3000 sols, then we could give reasonable estimates. Given what we know now, what a good engineer would say is that if we had a new rover, the odds are good we could make Ithaca. Beyond that, it's all hand-waving.

Even comparing the testbed rovers here on Earth wouldn't tell us much, because the environment here is so much more benign than on Mars.

I agree with Doug, explore the hell out of the nearby environment, and only then go for a suicide run to Ithaca. At least we would get another year or two of worthwhile scenery before the long haul.

Posted by: djellison Feb 13 2008, 08:41 AM

QUOTE (dvandorn @ Feb 13 2008, 03:44 AM) *
Isn't there a certain amount of engineering rigor to making meaningful projections of the eventual failure of Oppy's wheel based on the observed failure of Spirit's?


Well - here's the Spirit story. It failed a bit, then we nearly stopped using it, then it was fine for a while, then it suddenly died totally. It was, perhaps coincidentally, the trenching wheel that died - but all 6 wheels did a whole LOT of trenching on Opportunity. Opportunity has a stuck steering actuator that may or may not make a contribution. Opportunity has done a lot more mileage, but probably less climbing, Spirit has had hasher thermal cycles, but Opportunity's probably had more jarring driving over open rock. To infer 'we've got X sols' or, 'X km' from that is a random guess.

Doug

Posted by: nprev Feb 13 2008, 12:55 PM

Shaka, thanks for the vote of confidence, but Doug's got it right. We've got differential circumstances between Spirit & Oppy, and even assuming just a single possible failure mode (open wheel motor winding) the system can't really be described in a linear...i.e., predictive...fashion any more; we're deep into unknown territory here, and there are a <clink>load of variables to consider; any model would yield a portfolio of results that would be all over the place.

After all, the MERs have already far outlived their design lifetimes; they could last five more minutes or five more years (though I'm betting on the latter, and still think that statues of the design team members should be erected at all engineering schools... smile.gif )

Posted by: dvandorn Feb 13 2008, 04:16 PM

Well... we're still in predictive territory, in that we seem to be able to make the definitive statement "increased power draw means the wheel *will* fail at some point in the future." In other words, what we *can* do is infer from Spirit's example that the behavior we're seeing on Oppy means we've begun a failure mode; what you're saying we *can't* do is apply the Spirit example any further than that, to determine how that failure mode will play out in terms of time and use.

I understand your points, Doug and Nick. I will also say that they remind me of a basic argument that occurred during Apollo, the grand debate as to whether you could ever test flight hardware enough to ever determine its failure modes. There was one camp that believed it was insane to commit humans to systems that hadn't been tested hundreds of times, and another (the winning camp) that said you test to ensure the design is correct, but that there is no way to economically test every system enough times to get enough data points to make accurate failure mode predictions based solely on your test results. That second camp, the ones who invented and championed the "all-up" testing philosophy, understood the physics of their systems so well that, in some cases, they could use *single* data points to accurately define and predict failure modes in all sorts of booster and spacecraft systems.

I've seen many, many examples of accurate failure mode predictions based on only a few data points (but also based on a firm understanding of the physics of the situation). They ought to bring Mad Don Arabian out of retirement -- he used to do this kind of thing six times before breakfast... *grin*...

-the other Doug

Posted by: Stu Feb 13 2008, 05:19 PM

Okay, let's look at it from another angle. The Great Genie of Mars pops up from beneath those rippled dust dunes on the floor of Victoria, spins over to Oppy, and with a huge flash and a manic laugh magically grants Oppy another year of "life", guaranteeing that her wheels or steering won't fail, her computers won't crash, her cameras won't dim and die, etc. She's in fine fettle.

You now know you can get to Ithaca...

...but is it worth it? Is there anything to see, or do, once you get there? I can't see any outcrops there, I can't see much at all. The first landforms she'd come up against would be those mountains on the western edge. She's not climbing those, is she? If she heads north, skirting around the mountains and into the crater, what's there?

So, it comes down to a simple choice I feel, if you push these engineering and lifespan issues aside. Would it be scientifically useful and rewarding to trek to Ithaca, even if Oppy could? Is Ithaca a more attractive scientific target than the opposite side of Victoria, where we have, if you recall, such as yet unseen and unexplored attractions as Sofi's Crater, Soup Dragon, numerous ridges and slump features, etc?

Personally, I'd much rather she finishes up at Gilbert, comes out, and drives on around the edge, continuing and completing her survey of Victoria Crater, than head off towards a destination that looks - if I dare use the word I always hear in my head whenever I look at a photo of it - boring.

And if I was Steve S or Jim B or any of the team, if I started to think that Oppy was nearing the end of her days I'd much rather drive her down to the crater floor and becalm her in those dust dunes, where she could end her days with dignity, taking beautiful panoramas, at different times of the day, showing the outcrops and cliffs surrounding and looming over her, beautiful images that would crown the Opportunity mission appropriately, than just monitor her dragging herself south, sol after sol, until one of those sols was eventually her last and she ground to a halt out in the middle of nowhere, with nothing to do except look at the clouds scudding overhead and the impossibly faraway horizons all around her.


smile.gif

Posted by: centsworth_II Feb 13 2008, 05:31 PM

I say when her mobile days are over, park her in the dark streaks
on the north rim. A couple years of Micro and Pan Cam studies should
settle the deposition vs clean sweep debate. laugh.gif

edit: Alternatively, park her on the "Beacon". A fitting memorial station
and a good lookout for a one-year time lapse, 360 degree movie of the
area's cloud and dust devil action.

Posted by: ustrax Feb 13 2008, 05:55 PM

QUOTE (Stu @ Feb 13 2008, 05:19 PM) *
with nothing to do except look at the clouds scudding overhead and the impossibly faraway horizons all around her.


But, at least, she would have tried.

Posted by: fredk Feb 13 2008, 06:12 PM

I'd've thought there's probably plenty of exposed bedrock in those Ithaca rim hills, and surely climbable routes, at least before a wheel failure. And the interior appears to have plenty of "etched terrain", which presumably means exposed bedrock. Remember that's one big crater, and we don't have very high resolution images of it yet.

But I'm not convinced that Ithaca is a viable target. As I http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=4234&view=findpost&p=91131 given the difficulties of maneuvering dunes, even with hirise imagery, I'd vote for taking the quickest route back to the smooth, flat "tarmac" to our north/northeast. Once there, there are many potential target craters in various stages of erosion (some looking very fresh), and the distances should pose no serious obstacle, perhaps even with a wheel failure. This would be our best bet at learning about the horizontal variation in the geology. And if the imagery supports it, there's still the possibility of following the tarmac all the way to the north rim of Ithaca.

Stu, I'm surprized by your suggestion of ending Oppy's days mired in the sand inside Victoria. If she were to come to rest at Victoria, I've long had the secret wish that it be atop the Beacon. From the highest point for kilometres around, she could monitor most of the crater and all of the surrounding plains.

And hikers doing the Oppy trail in the 23rd century may be guided towards Victoria by not just the Beacon, but, if they're lucky, by a glint of sunlight reflecting off our little friend, the Sentinel of Victoria crater.

Posted by: Stu Feb 13 2008, 06:12 PM

There's no glory in trying for something that's not worth the sacrifice my friend.

Believe me, if Ithaca was a bigger version of Victoria, with crumbling outcrops, debris fields, dark streaks, ridges and ledges, I'd be waving a "Go Oppy!" banner too. It would be worth striking out for because, once we got there, there'd be sights to see, rocks to study, laters to investigate and panoramas to take. But look at it. There's Nothing There. It's an outline of a crater, an ex-crater, not really a crater at all.

A far nobler goal for Oppy - IMO - would be to circumnavigate VC before she rolled to a halt. Then we would have a great overview of the area, its environment, and geology. That far side of Victoria looks fascinating, doesn't it? Who isn't intrigued to know what the view would be from over there? Who isn't curious to look down on Soup Dragon and see those weird rocks from above? Who doesn't want to roll up to Sofi Crater and see how its formation scuffed up the rocks on the edge of VC itself?

Ithaca isn't a Promised Land it's just Somewhere Else To Go. Victoria has secrets to reveal yet, I'm sure. And we're already there.

Still, Steve told you you might be surprised where Oppy is heading, so we'll have to wait and see! smile.gif

Posted by: Stu Feb 13 2008, 06:16 PM

QUOTE (fredk @ Feb 13 2008, 06:12 PM) *
Stu, I'm surprized by your suggestion of ending Oppy's days mired in the sand inside Victoria.


Sorry, I meant if her demise was imminent, i.e. if she started getting creaky before she had finished exploring her current surroundings. I absolutely agree that the top of Beacon would be a fitting resting place for Oppy, and I love your closing image, it's just what I see in my mind too. smile.gif

Posted by: Nirgal Feb 13 2008, 06:50 PM

QUOTE (ustrax @ Feb 13 2008, 06:55 PM) *
But, at least, she would have tried.


I'm with Ustrax on this one.

the small scale variability of the terrain encountered by the rovers thus far has been surprisingly high (remember the
sudden disapearance of the blueberris etc.)

So if Oppy makes use of her remaining bonus life time to drive as far as she can onwards to new horizons then we
have a small but realistic chance of discovering entirely new and spectacular scientific findings waiting for us somewhere
out in the plains bewteen the dunes ...

Ponder this chance for entirely new discoveries (even if as low as, say 10 per cent)
against another couple of hunderd sols of in-place routine observations ....

So in the beginning of the mission we would clearly opt for the second alternative, avoiding unnecessary risk and make the most scientifc use per sol out of the expensive hardware

... but now, on bonus time, 10 times beyond any initial mission expectations... nothing to lose any more ... only to win smile.gif









Posted by: ustrax Feb 13 2008, 07:29 PM

QUOTE (fredk @ Feb 13 2008, 06:12 PM) *
Stu, I'm surprized by your suggestion of ending Oppy's days mired in the sand inside Victoria.


I am surprised by the fact we are establishing already a resting place to a rover that came all the way from Earth bumping into a small crater in Meridiani, then, enduring, reached a bigger one, and, victoriously, managed to, in spite of all the adversities, reach where we are now.
I'm all for the deep study of Victoria, but I'm eagering for the open spaces again, for the horizons gaining a contour.
I'm all for a new destiny, that does not mean necessarily Ithaca but others on the way to it.
And Stu...nothing to see? Have you see those peaks stretching from Oppy's line of sight at Victoria? That would be the same to say, when Spirit reached Gusev, that those hills weren't worthy, or unreachable as they were supposed to be.
Of course people have different ways of thinking, the Beacon image is quite romantic, but I'm more "Onward!" than romantic...I'm more of the kind to cross the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adamastor's cape and turn it into a Good Hope one than to sail on Africa's west coast's calm seas...I want to make it to India all the way, even if I do die trying so.
Magellan, who we honour at Victoria died pursuing is goal, never made it to Sevilla.
I would rather feel, when I become an elder man, with eyes wide open looking at the ceiling, that a certain rover tried the impossible and, bravely, fighting against age and an alien planet, ceased its journey exactly there, as you described it, among no and where. That no and where has a whole different meaning for me, it means that we went beyond what was expected, we have reached never seen lands, we have honoured our nature: To go Onward, against all odds.

I am not ready to sentence Opportunity to end its days at Victoria.

I want to see more, I want to rove more, I want to learn more, here I'll make mine Nirgal's words...new and spectacular scientific findings waiting for us somewhere out in the plains between the dunes...

The dunes...Opportunity's sea...if it has to be that way may our descendents find the brave wreckage of a mythic vessel that Tried to challenge the Gods...Prometheus comes to mind...

And all the hypothetical path towards Ithaca may, itself, be full of amazement and knowledge...we have several Victoria-sized craters on the way...we may increase our navigational skills for missions to come...we may learn a lot more about Meridiani...we may beat the horizon...

I am for the Ithaca dream, even if we wake up from it before its over.
I am for the Beyond. May we supply ourselves here, at Victoria, with all we need for the journey, the journey that I hope to be "a long one, full of adventure, full of discovery."

Posted by: algorimancer Feb 13 2008, 07:48 PM

To address the "nothing to see, so why bother" - I'll quote one of my older (May 2007) posts on the topic:

"...Boring? I think not as bad as prior to Vicky, and the destination is already visible. There will be various outcrops and craters along the way, and lot's of entertainment in projecting where Oppy will go next. Plus Oppy ought to be moving quickly enough to guarantee some regular changes in scenery.

As to scientific value, this takes us into an entirely new geological realm, not only the Ithaca rim peaks themselves, but the interior of Ithaca as well - which the MOLA maps indicate is substantially (hundreds of meters, as I recall) lower than than Vicky, and thus having the potential of having once contained standing water. Taking Oppy in any other direction would just see more of the same fractured/layered evaporite - talk about boring..."

Likewise, with regard to navigability, I once (June 2007) looked into this in rather more depth than I have time for now:

"...Getting back to the question of whether the region between Victoria and Ithaca is traversable... I just spent some time measuring dune sizes in areas where Opportunity was able to A) Traverse irrespective of dune direction (for example, a point midway between Endurance and Purgatory, cool.gif Traverse between dunes with care (for example, a point midway between Purgatory and Eagle), and C) Not traverse (Purgatory 1 & 2, or crossing dunes between them). I then spot-checked the HiRISE image to the south and east of Victoria and compared. Not surprisingly, there is a big non-traversable region to the east of Vicky, and another rather far towards the south, but much (most) of the remainder of the region falls in the traversable realm, either resembling the vicinity of Eagle crater (scattered dunes over open stretches of evaporite) or relatively small dunes which Oppy can just roll over without worrying about getting stuck, with the occasional exceptional big dune scattered about which would be easy to navigate around. In other words, it may be far more easily traversable than our earlier cynically optimistic assumptions. When I compare this "ground truth" with the Themis day/night infrared images it looks to me like there may be a nearly direct route between Victoria and the western rim of Ithaca, much of which can be covered in hundreds of meter safe drives. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic smile.gif

To get a sense of this, use the fully-zoomed-in HiRISE image viewer to capture a view of the dunes (at the same scale) mentioned in A & B above, then scan around in the image viewer and compare with the captured images. The terrain gets progressively easier to navigate as you move to the southeast..."





Posted by: dvandorn Feb 14 2008, 04:27 AM

QUOTE (fredk @ Feb 13 2008, 12:12 PM) *
I'd've thought there's probably plenty of exposed bedrock in those Ithaca rim hills, and surely climbable routes, at least before a wheel failure. And the interior appears to have plenty of "etched terrain", which presumably means exposed bedrock. Remember that's one big crater, and we don't have very high resolution images of it yet.

But I'm not convinced that Ithaca is a viable target. As I http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=4234&view=findpost&p=91131 given the difficulties of maneuvering dunes, even with hirise imagery, I'd vote for taking the quickest route back to the smooth, flat "tarmac" to our north/northeast. Once there, there are many potential target craters in various stages of erosion (some looking very fresh), and the distances should pose no serious obstacle, perhaps even with a wheel failure. This would be our best bet at learning about the horizontal variation in the geology. And if the imagery supports it, there's still the possibility of following the tarmac all the way to the north rim of Ithaca.

I can't agree with you more, Fred. In fact, there is a post in here (likely in this very thread) in which I argue fairly strenuously for heading north-northeast and visiting a set of three craters that are relatively close to each other, but which have very different apparent morphologies. (Being the imaginative fool that I am, I named them A, B and C, if I recall...)

As for Ithaca / Big Crater, this thing looks big enough to have been formed at the end of the LHB. It has undoubtedly raised a lot of the strata that underlies the evaporite paving of Meridiani Planum into its rim hills, which would provide incalculable insight into the history of the region. But -- and it's a big but -- that material will have been heavily shocked and jumbled, covered by subsequent deposition, and difficult to find windows into.

Ithaca might be a very good target for a brand-new rover that lands within a km of its rim hills, but I doubt Oppy, even if she could get there, will have enough left in the tank to scrabble around and do a good job of characterizing the geology of the place.

So, my vote would be to exit the area (if that's what we feel we need to do) on a north-northeast vector, find the flattest tarmac we can, and investigate as many different crater morphologies as we can before she becomes a stationary lander mission.

-the other Doug

Posted by: AndyG Feb 14 2008, 10:55 AM

It may not be exciting, it may not be visionary, nor will it fire our romantic spirit, but post-Victoria, if Oppy's moving, surely the most info-per-metre route will be to backtrack at least some of the way she's been. We know the way and the terrain.

The Meridiani science to date has largely been snapshots of the planet. There's little to relate how Mars looks now to how Mars changes over a month, a year, two years. What processes occur over timespans we have no experience of? What state are old tracks in? Did the duststorm alter sites previously visited? On what scales?

Real world data of Mars' dynamism, and practical engineering data relating to the development of future, better rovers must be more worthwhile than some trek into the unknown with a certainly unattainable goal - or the parking of a still-mobile rover for little more than symbolic purposes.

Andy

Posted by: ustrax Feb 14 2008, 02:49 PM

How could have I missed http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=3215&view=findpost&p=69562?... blink.gif
Thanks for those links marswiggles! smile.gif

While there's no HiRise images we have almost all the terrain covered, what permits us to wildly, wildly speculate about possible routes and timelines...here's my take on reaching Ithaca in 16 months...OK, I'm will to push that into 2 years, not more than that... tongue.gif



Too unreal?...

Posted by: djellison Feb 14 2008, 03:01 PM

Endurance to Victoria was a sprint. It had technical halts, but so would the drive to Ithaca. It had very very few science stops of any significance. Over long distances of mixed terrain - that's as good as it gets.

It took 22 months to reach Victoria. There is no reason to suggest a more rapid rate of progress could be made on the way to Ithaca. 40-50 months (or roughly 3 to 4 years) is far more realistic. Give the likelihood of one or more serious mechanical failures on the way, a conservative estimate could be at least double that.

That route in particular isn't great. South East isn't really a nice option. NE is far more navigable.

Doug

Posted by: ustrax Feb 14 2008, 03:15 PM

Thanks for the reality check Doug. smile.gif

Now, for something different, did anyone noticed this feature (roughly 100 mts wide) on the image marswiggle provided http://www.msss.com/moc_gallery/e01_e06/images/E05/E0502642.html?
A fresh impact?




Posted by: nprev Feb 14 2008, 03:43 PM

Sure looks fresh to me, Rui; nice find! Anybody know how far away it is from Oppy?

Posted by: ustrax Feb 14 2008, 03:50 PM

QUOTE (nprev @ Feb 14 2008, 03:43 PM) *
Sure looks fresh to me, Rui; nice find! Anybody know how far away it is from Oppy?


About 15 kms up North...
Here:

Posted by: fredk Feb 14 2008, 04:18 PM

I sure did notice that "fresh" crater out towards the NNE. It appears to be on the "tarmac", and it's one reason I want to get back on the tarmac. And to AndyG, once we're back on the tarmac it would be easy to revisit Endurance and the lander if desired.

(And just to be clear, I'm not at all in favour of the "parking of a still-mobile rover [on the beacon] for little more than symbolic purposes." I only think it would be a great place for an immobilized rover to carry out its final lander phase. The trouble is, we likely won't have any say where she'll become immobilized.)

Posted by: nprev Feb 14 2008, 05:29 PM

15 klicks...argh, tantalizing. That's a LONG haul, though, and sure looks like Oppy would have to traverse some mean dune fields. Still....an option. That crater's probably less than a century old (maybe much less, actually); would be damn interesting to study the dark ejecta enroute as well as the recently excavated substrate.

Posted by: climber Feb 14 2008, 06:14 PM

I'm very surprised by your assesment, Stu : "there's nothing there"! I guess that if we've landed in Ithaca, Oppy would have made discoveries : better there than missing Mars altogether !
I say : Let's leave Victoria's orbit and go explore because we do NOT know what we'll find in Ithaca or at the fresh crater and on the way to there.
Oppy is ALREADY the most succesfull spacecraft on Mars, I do NOT want her to be turned as a monument that will be visited in a hundred year, I want to explore NOW. Pedal to the metal and no turn back.
As for science, let's compare Oppy going to Ithaca or elsewhere with NH going to Pluto : give most of the scientists a break and bring them back when we'll be there.
Note : I didn't say I want SS to replace Alan meanwhile biggrin.gif

Posted by: Stu Feb 14 2008, 06:39 PM

I'm really enjoying this debate, even tho I'm feeling a bit bruised under the eyes and sore in my ribs... wink.gif

Don't get me wrong, I'm not wanting to turn Oppy into a monument anytime soon, but the time might well come when the controllers begin to realise that her days are numbered, and if that day comes SOON then sure, park her up on a high place, and let her end her days watching the sun rise and set, the clouds drift across the salmon-hued sky, the shadows sweep across Victoria's floor, and show us everything in Pancam colour for as long as she can.

"I guess that if we've landed in Ithaca, Oppy would have made discoveries"

Of course she would; she'd have been a new rover, with fire in her belly, ready and able to explore her new surroundings. Wherever Oppy landed she'd have made discoveries simply because she was seeing and exploring a new place, a place never before seen. But think of it this way: if she'd landed halfway between Ithaca and Victoria, and you were in the driving seat, where would you have headed? For the smaller crater to the north, with visible, dramatic outcrops and intriguing sprays of dark material spewing out of it? Or south, to the ghostly remains of a more ancient, eroded-to-the-point-of-vanishing crater, with no immediately obvious geological attractions? I think you'd have chosen to go north. Well, we're at that crater already, with more of it to explore and, what, a good year's drive away from Ithaca...?

Having said that, if Oppy is in good health after exiting Victoria, her demise is nowhere in sight, and the science team decide that there are no more obvious targets further around the rim, then I'm in the I'm all for striking out again - but not to Ithaca. I still think that it's just not worth the drive.

I'm thinking that there must be something, somewhere, more interesting closer to Victoria, somewhere that Steve and the gang have in mind but haven't let on about yet. wink.gif

Posted by: centsworth_II Feb 14 2008, 07:09 PM

QUOTE (Stu @ Feb 14 2008, 01:39 PM) *
I'm thinking that there must be something, somewhere, more interesting
closer to Victoria, somewhere that Steve and the gang have in mind but
haven't let on about yet. wink.gif

Opportunity didn't continue past the dark streaks to this area,
instead returning to Duck Bay for entry. Perhaps at the time
it was considered more prudent to end further investigation of
the rim and enter the crater while Opportunity was still in good
health. Now that Duck Bay has been studied, they may want to
go take a look at those fractures.



"This enhanced-color view of the eastern rim and floor of "Victoria Crater"
...shows ridges that may be fractures surrounded by chemically cemented
sedimentary bedrock. The ridges are therefore potentially fruitful targets
for analysis by NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity...."
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/MRO/multimedia/pia09191.html

Posted by: stewjack Feb 14 2008, 07:37 PM

QUOTE (centsworth_II @ Feb 14 2008, 02:09 PM) *
Now that Duck Bay has been studied, they may want to
go take a look at those fractures.


I was hoping someone would bring that up. I thought I was the only one who was
disappointed when the rover was turned around. wink.gif

Jack

Posted by: Shaka Feb 14 2008, 10:33 PM

QUOTE (Stu @ Feb 14 2008, 08:39 AM) *
I'm really enjoying this debate, even tho I'm feeling a bit bruised under the eyes and sore in my ribs... wink.gif

The Agony and the Ecstasy!
If the masses aren't getting your message, Stuey, you may be using the wrong genre. From our Poet Laureate we expect a sonnet!
Ustrax has his pro-Ithaca poem; we need an anti-Itheca poem to weigh in the balance!
HTH
Shaka

Posted by: Sunspot Feb 14 2008, 11:01 PM

QUOTE (centsworth_II @ Feb 14 2008, 07:09 PM) *


"This enhanced-color view of the eastern rim and floor of "Victoria Crater"
...shows ridges that may be fractures surrounded by chemically cemented
sedimentary bedrock. The ridges are therefore potentially fruitful targets
for analysis by NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity...."
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/MRO/multimedia/pia09191.html


Ahhhh I was looking for that image and the story that goes with it. This would be a better short term plan than wandering off into the dunes Lawrence "Titus" Oats style.

Posted by: Stu Feb 14 2008, 11:11 PM

Stuey?!?! I haven't been called that since I was 6!!!! laugh.gif

Okay, I'll work on it...

Posted by: Stu Feb 14 2008, 11:59 PM

Here you go Shaka...


("Stuey"... shakes head...)


TO ITHACA?


Oh how soon you forget!
When this gaping dust- and grit-filled eye socket
shocked you with its size you cried
“We are here!” and after peering over my shoulder
for months, watching the hump-backed horizon
crawl closer, suddenly you found yourselves
tumbling through a hidden door and falling
into a magical martian Narnia, where crumbling
cliffs and outcrops bathed in syrupy sunlight
promised wonders without end!

Now, before my fine-scratched digital eyes
have gazed at Great Victoria’s ragged eastern side
you would send me south - towards a
Time-worn hole that is barely even there?
Do you care nought for me? Have I not breathed
new life into this bold, cold New World of yours?
Would you despatch me to a distant shore
you all suspect in your conspiring hearts
is much too far for me to reach?
Has Barsoom bored you all so soon?

Fine. I will go. Ithaca shall be my goal,
my final “Holy Grail”. But when I fail,
when my worn and weary wheels cannot free
themselves from some unseen, undulating
dune you’ll rue the day you made me
turn my dusty back on Beacon and its company
of cliffs, and will admit that you were rash
to order me to dash towards a coffee-cup stain
“crater” so many crazy K’s away,
and watch me die.

I am just going outside… and may be some time…

© Stuart Atkinson 2008

Posted by: Shaka Feb 15 2008, 02:00 AM

God, what can Portugal offer to beat that?

Posted by: edstrick Feb 15 2008, 08:18 AM

I look at those "mountains" sticking up on the rim of Ithaca and I'm 4/5ths convinced they're pre-evaporite terrain or at least something substantially different from the sulfate and basalt-sand (with or without blueberries) we've explored so far on Meridiani Ithaca is a pre-mantling crater and was largely mantled itself. But the rim topography was high enough that isolated ridges of the original rim material appear to stick up through the eroded Meridiani layers draped over the rim. That's why I think the rim REALLY has a chance of being something different. If it's old crust, it'd be lile another stab at materials like those in the Columbia hills, only from deeper down, then eroded and modified before <and during> mantling before they were re-exposed as mantle over the topographic high of the rim was slowly stripped.

Other than that fresh impact, which would be "kewl" but probably not that informative on "follow the water" Martian geologic history levels, Ithaca offers one chance of really different geology that would be worth trying for. I have deep doubts about reaching it, but...

Posted by: ustrax Feb 15 2008, 09:46 AM

QUOTE (Shaka @ Feb 15 2008, 02:00 AM) *
God, what can Portugal offer to beat that?


Man...putting some fuel to the fire?... rolleyes.gif
This is Stu's ground but I took the challenge.
This is it for now...I remembered some verses from a poem I truly like and follow from there...
I dare you Stu, to play the next card... smile.gif

To trap the journeyer?
To silence the song of the quest?
To curtail the pilgrim’s step?
To cease?

Cease the one for whom life is only death delayed.
For whom the horizon is to contemplate, not to reach.
Not to challenge, not to smell, not to touch.

But you,
The one created by Man,
Bearing His mortality but also His will,
You have defeated the distance,
You, that are Us on another planet,
You, even tired of the roaming,
You, even missing Home,
And the Ones who gave you life,
You dare not to cease but to follow,
Freely, Beyond yourself,
Beyond us.

Until the end a Rover,
From the shiny Alfa to a dusty Omega,
Chasing, for Us, the Impossible,
Beating, for Us, the improbable,
Dreaming, as Us, with the far mountains.
Ithaca awaits,
not your arrival,
neither your triomph,
but your will to reach it.
Your will to move Onward.

Move,
Onward and do not cease,
Faitful, until the end,
To your pilgrim nature,
To the Human sparkle in you,
Your wheels, our feet, over the ground never walked,
Your eyes our eyes, beholding the never seen,

Faitful.
Until one final step, until one final look.


EDITED: I love the smell of Ultreya in the morning... tongue.gif

Posted by: Aussie Feb 15 2008, 10:41 AM

Poet Laureats all, but perhaps a touch of realism is in order? We have one crippled robot at Home Plate (sorry but she is already in hunker down mode mode in early autumn- not a sign of a healthy rover) and an ageing robot in Victoria. What these robots have achieved is amazing, but the laws of physics dictate that at some stage, and probaly not too far distant, one or both of these vehicles will expire. Forget fantasies about Icatha. What is the best return on say a three month (original mission_ 90 day venture). Heading fdown towrds the Victoria dunes seems a damn sight better than playing on the ejecta blanket!!!

Posted by: ustrax Feb 15 2008, 11:09 AM

QUOTE (Aussie @ Feb 15 2008, 10:41 AM) *
Forget fantasies about Icatha.


I won't forget it until there's a possiblity.
I want to see this...:

...Closer... wink.gif

Posted by: djellison Feb 15 2008, 11:50 AM

The was an old rover called Oppy
Who's Rat mechanism was choppy
She was stuck in some dunes
Just running of fumes
For long term drive planning, that's sloppy.

smile.gif

Posted by: ngunn Feb 15 2008, 12:19 PM

I ask myself, if I were there in person would I really turn my back on this crater before exploring every bay and every cape, searching every available square metre of cliff face for something new and different (however small) that might later turn out to be an important clue? I don't think so. Just imagine the scene in 50 years' time:
"Good grief!! How did they miss that with the MER?"
"Guess they didn't look round this side."


All the hints and clues say I'm on the wrong track, I know. They'll probably retrace old ground as various team members with unfinished business at earlier locations stake their claims.

Posted by: Stu Feb 15 2008, 03:00 PM

QUOTE (djellison @ Feb 15 2008, 11:50 AM) *
The was an old rover called Oppy
Who's Rat mechanism was choppy
She was stuck in some dunes
Just running of fumes
For long term drive planning, that's sloppy.

smile.gif


Genius. Cleverer than a fox on Mastermind, whose specialist subject is "Killing Chickens". smile.gif

Posted by: climber Feb 15 2008, 05:42 PM

QUOTE (Aussie @ Feb 15 2008, 11:41 AM) *
Forget fantasies about Icatha.

This is why we wanna go to Ithaca tongue.gif

Posted by: ustrax Feb 15 2008, 09:20 PM

Just feeding the myth...
Did you guys knew that one of the possible translations for Odysseus or Ulysses, the one who took ten years to reach Ithaca...the "resourcefulness" Odysseus...is "leg wound"?... smile.gif
Oppy...
Oddy...
Things come always into place... wink.gif

EDITED:
There will be, not so soon, a mission like this one...with such a passion, such an intense debate, where humans battling with poetry for a machine's destiny...
Not so soon...the MER mission is an anthem to Mankind itself, to the nature of each one of us but, more than that, to our nature as a whole species. Beyond...beyond ourselves...
I truly believe that.

Posted by: djellison Feb 15 2008, 11:24 PM

This is something that both Jim Bell and I think, which typifies just how much a part of our lives those two machines have become.

I can't remember what my life was like before them.

Doug

Posted by: brellis Feb 16 2008, 12:32 AM

Lovely words, ustrax. Whenever we do something great like this, I feel proud to be a human.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0097372/ biggrin.gif

Posted by: climber Feb 16 2008, 12:37 AM

Back in january 2004, when Spirit was not responding anymore and Oppy was a week to landing, I realised that we could loose both of them and the mission would be over before it ever realy started. I felt so bad during a full week.
Our life would have been so different...

Posted by: nprev Feb 16 2008, 01:17 AM

Before I say anything else, congrats to our esteemed poets...I'm not even gonna try in the face of such emotion & inspiration, thank you! smile.gif

Yeah, who'd've thought that we'd be cheering the MERs on in 2008? This epic journey may well mark the first genuine 'old-school' human exploration of another world, even though our presence has been virtual. We've seen what's beyond the next horizon, again and again; what a remarkable experience, and it ain't over yet! wink.gif The bar's been set damn high for the future, to be sure.

Posted by: centsworth_II Feb 16 2008, 08:00 AM

Just curious, is there anyone here that would have Opportunity head for parts unknown
without first checking out these intriguing features on the East rim of Victoria? Show yourself.


http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/MRO/multimedia/pia09191.html

Posted by: Bill Harris Feb 16 2008, 12:04 PM

QUOTE (centsworth_II @ Feb 16 2008, 02:00 AM) *
Just curious, is there anyone here that would have Opportunity head for parts unknown
without first checking out these intriguing features on the East rim of Victoria?
T'would be interesting to get a close-up view of x-sections of the anatolia-features.

---Bill

Posted by: fredk Feb 16 2008, 06:10 PM

QUOTE (centsworth_II @ Feb 16 2008, 08:00 AM) *
Just curious, is there anyone here that would have Opportunity head for parts unknown without first checking out these intriguing features on the East rim of Victoria?

I'd love to check them out, and I was surprized we didn't take a closer look when we were out east. But it might be a question of accessiblity. The bays may be too steep to enter over there, and it's tough to examine a cliff from the top of the cliff. Indeed, it looks like we actually were above one of those "linear features" on sols 1153 to 1157 atop Tierra del Fuego. Still I think there are a couple of spots where we could get a decent view of the features.

Posted by: centsworth_II Feb 16 2008, 06:31 PM

QUOTE (fredk @ Feb 16 2008, 01:10 PM) *
I'd love to check them out...

I'm particularly looking for one of the "Ithaca or bust" gang to step
forward and say that they value heading to the horizon above checking
out East Victoria, given the unique features over there.

On the other hand, I wonder what the chances are that those
"linear fractures" are not really unique, but are just a coincidental
weathering pattern on the layers already being studied by Opportunity.
The only way to know for sure may be to go and see.

Posted by: ustrax Feb 16 2008, 08:50 PM

QUOTE (nprev @ Feb 16 2008, 01:17 AM) *
and it ain't over yet!


http://youtube.com/watch?v=tP0XsCC1OTc and I couldn't agree more with you... smile.gif

Posted by: Ipparchus Feb 26 2008, 11:25 AM

I`d like to propose a route for Oppy after Victoria... This route could allow it:1.pass through difficult but accessible and already passed dune-field, so we could drive safe on the rover`s old tracks, 2.give a second look at Erebus as most of the MER team menbers feel they have unfinished business there, 3.possibly re-visit Endurance crater (although I don`t think it worths), 4.study two Endurance-sized craters (Triumph and Emprise), 5.pass near five small craters (Mettle,Nigh,Pathfinder,Sojourner and Trek), 6.study a very fresh crater (not many years old) and 7.study an old, Erebus-style crater (Ipparchus). The most interesting target of all is, of course, Junior crater because of it`s dark ejecta and the recently excavated substrate .The 17 km we need to go there may look a lot, but I think we have a very interesting and rare target there waiting us to explore it! Please, tell me what you think about my proposed route, targets and names of the craters!I specially ask for the opinion of Doug and the other Doug! :wheel: :pancam: :mars:

 

Posted by: Doc Feb 26 2008, 02:46 PM

Intriguing Ipparchus. I infact had no idea that there was a fresh crater nearby!
But I must say that from an engineering standpoint Opportunity may not be able to last all the way.
Nonetheless your route map is worthy of consideration.

Posted by: dvandorn Feb 26 2008, 04:25 PM

My thoughts exactly. In fact, I'm pretty sure what you label Triumph, Emprise and Pathfinder are the craters I was labeling A, B and C. In other words, the destinations I had pointed out a year or so ago.

Taking a trip up to the fresh crater would be a bonus in this traverse concept.

I will note that you can jog to the east of the old track we took south and avoid most of the soft ripple country. Assuming the wheel holds out, you could get up to the general area we're discussing in only a few months.

-the other Doug

Posted by: Phil Stooke Feb 26 2008, 04:43 PM

I hope you are right about the easterly path being easier, Doug, but I would be less optinistic about it!

I personally don't anticipate such long distance driving. I expect to see relatively slow movement across the etched terrain, hoping for a serendipitous new exposure, maybe going slightly up or down the section. Westwards just a few km lies a very eroded large craterlike depression. Southwards or southeastwards maybe just more etched terrain, but always a chance of a particularly good exposure with different blueberry concentrations or festoons or whatever.

Long distance extended mission planning wasn't part of the site selection process for MER, because drives of only 1 or 2 km were anticipated and the landing site was uncertain by tens of km. But I think we can expect that MSL and ExoMars site selection will include assessments of good extended mission opportunities - in fact we can see that in the MSL workshop presentations.

Phil

Posted by: ToSeek Feb 26 2008, 05:06 PM

I seem to recall that there was some interesting-looking object sticking up to the east as Opportunity headed south from Endurance. This would provide a better chance to have a look at that as well.

Posted by: Doc Feb 27 2008, 07:41 AM

QUOTE (ToSeek @ Feb 26 2008, 08:06 PM) *
I seem to recall that there was some interesting-looking object sticking up to the east as Opportunity headed south from Endurance. This would provide a better chance to have a look at that as well.


Can u please show me this interesting object if you dont mind smile.gif

Posted by: algorimancer Feb 27 2008, 01:46 PM

QUOTE (ToSeek @ Feb 26 2008, 11:06 AM) *
I seem to recall that there was some interesting-looking object sticking up to the east....

That would be the rim mountains of Ithaca crater. As I recall, at one point we were seeing the northern rim, and later we saw the western rim; the rim is largely degraded.

Posted by: ElkGroveDan Feb 27 2008, 03:24 PM

QUOTE (ToSeek @ Feb 26 2008, 09:06 AM) *
I seem to recall that there was some interesting-looking object sticking up to the east as Opportunity headed south from Endurance. This would provide a better chance to have a look at that as well.


Were you referring to the dark patch way back before Opportunity encountered any dunes? There was some discussion of whether this could be the cruise stage impact (and I have no opinion with regard to that).


 

Posted by: djellison Feb 27 2008, 04:36 PM

HiRISE has cleared that up quite a lot (greyscale, 100%)

Also attached - the Heatshield in IGB at 200%

 

Posted by: ilbasso Feb 27 2008, 05:27 PM

Any estimates as to how deep the "fresh crater" is? What would we learn from it that we haven't gotten from a fresher impact, for example where the heatshield impacted?

Posted by: ToSeek Feb 27 2008, 09:00 PM

QUOTE (Doc @ Feb 27 2008, 02:41 AM) *
Can u please show me this interesting object if you dont mind smile.gif


I remember it as a dark object sticking up on or near the horizon, almost due east as Opportunity was going from Endurance to Erebus. But I've just gone through dozens of images from that period, and I can't find it now. Sorry.


Posted by: alan Feb 27 2008, 09:14 PM

Are you referring to the bump on the horizon that kept being mistaken for Victoria? I believe it was to the west.

Posted by: fredk Feb 27 2008, 10:09 PM

Perhaps you're referring to the rim of "Ithaca", as algorimancer suggested, which was visible to the east as we approached Victoria:

http://marsrovers.jpl.nasa.gov/gallery/all/1/p/904/1P208438286EFF74ZTP2293L7M1.JPG

Posted by: ToSeek Feb 28 2008, 04:39 PM

QUOTE (fredk @ Feb 27 2008, 05:09 PM) *
Perhaps you're referring to the rim of "Ithaca", as algorimancer suggested, which was visible to the east as we approached Victoria:

http://marsrovers.jpl.nasa.gov/gallery/all/1/p/904/1P208438286EFF74ZTP2293L7M1.JPG


No, it looked more like one of those rocks in the middle ground in that image, though much farther away. Unless I was hallucinating....

Posted by: ustrax Mar 6 2008, 08:13 PM

A quick insight from Jim Bell on this "After Victoria" issue at http://spaceurope.blogspot.com/2008/03/mars-exploration-rover-mission-update.html:

"A few people on the team, like Tim Parker, have been making and looking at images like yours of more distant craters.
If we are fortunate enough to continue to be alive once we reach a consensus that we are "done" in Victoria, then these are certainly some of the juiciest potential next targets!"

I like juicy stuff... rolleyes.gif

Speaking of juicy...there's also a new book on the way... smile.gif

Posted by: CosmicRocker Mar 7 2008, 06:30 AM

Wow! Thanks for the heads-up on Jim Bell's appearance in your blog, ustrax. I was happy to learn that the team has not ruled out "juicy" targets far away, and also that they have not yet tired of Victoria's nearby secrets. smile.gif

Some of us have been eagerly anticipating Jim's 3D book, so thanks also for that update. Congratulations. Your blog has become required reading.

Posted by: brellis Mar 8 2008, 02:51 AM



(Echoes of thanks to ustrax for his blog) smile.gif

From Jim Bell's statement:

QUOTE
Many of us hope to drive over to Cape Verde and analyze those layers (and fallen pieces of unreachable upper layers) in more detail. That could take months, too, or it could be impossible from a rover driving and power/communications perspective (cliffs block a large piece of the sky!).


I've been wondering about Verde looming larger, and whether it wouldn't be more prudent to head the other way for survival's sake as the rover would be angled more towards the sun.

Posted by: Shaka Mar 8 2008, 04:46 AM

No Contesto, Sahib! unsure.gif Verde is wreathed in shadow. http://qt.exploratorium.edu/mars/opportunity/pancam/2008-03-04/1P257534265EFF88B2P2427L7M1.JPG
Even in the afternoon.
Frio, on the other hand, is mostly illuminated through the day: http://qt.exploratorium.edu/mars/opportunity/pancam/2008-03-07/1P258148975EFF8900P2279R1M1.JPG
AND there's deeper exposures there.

no brainer tongue.gif

Posted by: Aussie Mar 8 2008, 05:11 AM

QUOTE (Shaka @ Mar 8 2008, 04:46 AM) *
Frio, on the other hand, is mostly illuminated through the day: http://qt.exploratorium.edu/mars/opportunity/pancam/2008-03-07/1P258148975EFF8900P2279R1M1.JPG
AND there's deeper exposures there.

no brainer tongue.gif


The slumped promentary in the background looks interesting. Anticlockwise around Victoria seems a reasonable way to spend the next year or so.

Posted by: fredk Mar 8 2008, 04:57 PM

It is a cool promontory. http://marsrovers.jpl.nasa.gov/gallery/all/1/p/1462/1P257970810ESF8900P2429R1M1.JPG

I found this comment interesting:

QUOTE
For the short term (many more months, at least), we will likely stay in Victoria and continue to measure the layered stratigraphy along the Duck Bay traverse.
Many more months. I take that to mean they have decided it is safe to drive in deeper, and we won't be leaving soon. Or perhaps they will backtrack upslope and reexamine the upper layers in more detail? This sounds a bit funny, since we heard from Squyres recently that he was concerned about wheels and was getting anxious to get out.

Posted by: mhoward Mar 8 2008, 06:28 PM

QUOTE (Shaka @ Mar 7 2008, 09:46 PM) *
Frio, on the other hand, is mostly illuminated through the day: http://qt.exploratorium.edu/mars/opportunity/pancam/2008-03-07/1P258148975EFF8900P2279R1M1.JPG
AND there's deeper exposures there.


In that image it also looks like there is a sheet of sand between us and Cabo Frio.

Posted by: Shaka Mar 8 2008, 07:13 PM

Yes, that's the case toward either cape. The question to be addressed is whether the sand slide is traversable. There is cause for concern in light of the deep scuff marks made by Oppy in the sand between two of the rock slabs a while ago. If close inspection suggests that we can't cross those areas, we will have to go back up Duck Bay at least as far as the bright ring to circle around to Frio. That will take a while, but it's time we have.
As to the "collapsed cape" beyond Frio, I don't see the appeal of an area that probably has it's deepest layers buried under the collapse.
Deeper is better. Frio is better unless its slope is too great.

Posted by: ustrax Mar 8 2008, 08:26 PM

QUOTE (brellis @ Mar 8 2008, 02:51 AM) *
(Echoes of thanks to ustrax for his blog) smile.gif


I'll try to improve in the future... smile.gif
Until then I can't avoid to see Victoria's exploration as the prelude to somehting bigger...even if we spent here an another year...I am that trusty on Oppy... rolleyes.gif

Posted by: Oersted Mar 12 2008, 03:57 PM

Slightly off-topic, and just a short question. Does Postcards from Mars include pictures from Victoria Crater?

Posted by: CosmicRocker Mar 13 2008, 05:44 AM

No, it doesn't. The book went into its first printing in November of 2006, shortly after Opportunity arrived at Victoria

Posted by: Oersted Mar 17 2008, 08:26 PM

Thanks for the reply. So, I think I'll wait for the book they'll publish when the rovers are no more...

Posted by: climber Mar 17 2008, 10:25 PM

QUOTE (Oersted @ Mar 17 2008, 09:26 PM) *
Thanks for the reply. So, I think I'll wait for the book they'll publish when the rovers are no more...

You'll be 274 years old by then...

Oups, sorry Ted, I could not resist wink.gif

Posted by: tedstryk Mar 23 2008, 12:45 AM


LOL biggrin.gif

Posted by: brellis May 2 2008, 02:18 PM

From TPS's http://www.planetary.org/news/2008/0430_Mars_Exploration_Rovers_Update_Spirit.html, Steve Squyres says:


QUOTE
I really, really want to use the Mini-TES this spring out on the plains."


As a "Big Crater" fan, I'm excited to hear these words!

Posted by: jamescanvin May 2 2008, 02:25 PM

Of course that is either a mis-quote or a slip by Steve, the Mini-TES is both inoperable and not located on the IDD (which was what Steve was talking about at the time)

Posted by: climber May 6 2008, 09:12 PM

Listening SS on the TPS interview I've realized that we can now say that the size of the lake/sea at Meridiani was at least 6 km big in the direction Endurance-Victoria. SS said that they've found basicaly the same stuff in both crater.
So, one advantage, getting to Ithaca, will be to extend this ground proof both in a second dimension and in size.

Posted by: BrianL May 9 2008, 05:18 AM

QUOTE (climber @ May 6 2008, 04:12 PM) *
So, one advantage, getting to Ithaca, will be to extend this ground proof both in a second dimension and in size.


Given Oppy's demonstrated progress on getting to a cliff face a few meters away, does anyone still believe Ithaca is a realistic goal? Something always happens to interfere with those hoped for 100m a day drives. It's a given. Both Oppy and Spirit have given us their "miracle miles" by getting to Victoria and the summit of Husband Hill. I don't hold out hope for any more. It's basic neighbourhood poking around from here till the end, IMO.

Brian

Posted by: AndyG May 9 2008, 08:58 AM

QUOTE (BrianL @ May 9 2008, 06:18 AM) *
Both Oppy and Spirit have given us their "miracle miles" by getting to Victoria and the summit of Husband Hill. I don't hold out hope for any more. It's basic neighbourhood poking around from here till the end, IMO.

I'm with you, Brian - with regards to the rovers I can't help feeling that "old car feeling" you get when, a few years into car ownership, once the novelty and the new smell have long worn off, and the odometer has passed the 100k miles mark, you find that the central locking starts gumming up, bulbs pop with increasing frequency, and there's a mysterious rattle which only occurs on cold mornings.

I love the rovers to pieces, but surely we're at the point where we'd just about trust them on a trip to the shops but not an 80mph burn down the M6...

Andy

Posted by: fredk May 9 2008, 03:23 PM

Don't forget we're sitting on a sandy, 20 degree slope at the moment! I'm sure Oppy could manage a few more "burns down the motorway" once we get out onto the smooth, flat annulus outside Victoria...

Posted by: tedstryk May 12 2008, 08:42 PM

QUOTE (AndyG @ May 9 2008, 09:58 AM) *
I'm with you, Brian - with regards to the rovers I can't help feeling that "old car feeling" you get when, a few years into car ownership, once the novelty and the new smell have long worn off, and the odometer has passed the 100k miles mark, you find that the central locking starts gumming up, bulbs pop with increasing frequency, and there's a mysterious rattle which only occurs on cold mornings.

I love the rovers to pieces, but surely we're at the point where we'd just about trust them on a trip to the shops but not an 80mph burn down the M6...

Andy


It doesn't always mean the end...my car is a few miles short of 200,000, and until it needs something big beyond routine maintenance, I see no point in replacing it. I hope Oppy and Spirit have its longevity.

Posted by: climber May 12 2008, 09:05 PM

QUOTE (tedstryk @ May 12 2008, 10:42 PM) *
It doesn't always mean the end...my car is a few miles short of 200,000, and until it needs something big beyond routine maintenance, I see no point in replacing it. I hope Oppy and Spirit have its longevity.

I'm with you Ted. biggrin.gif

Posted by: dburt May 17 2008, 01:46 AM

QUOTE (climber @ May 6 2008, 02:12 PM) *
...I've realized that we can now say that the size of the lake/sea at Meridiani was at least 6 km big in the direction Endurance-Victoria. SS said that they've found basicaly the same stuff in both crater...

Climber - "Basically the same stuff" in both craters does not mean there was a lake/sea there, because the sediments are clearly not lake or sea beds. They are cross-bedded, obviously transported sediments, derived from some place else via either wind transport (according to SS et al.) or via impact reworking (according to Knauth et al.).

Regarding the later discussion, I still drive (and abuse) a 1985 4WD pickup truck with its original engine and transmission. It had 7 years and 100 k+ miles on it when I bought it. I love that go-anywhere vehicle, even though it has developed some obvious quirks and rattles with age. So don't write 4-year old Oppy off yet.

-- HDP Don

Posted by: climber May 17 2008, 07:32 AM

QUOTE (dburt @ May 17 2008, 03:46 AM) *
Climber - "Basically the same stuff" in both craters does not mean there was a lake/sea there,

Regarding the later discussion, I still drive (and abuse) a 1985 4WD pickup truck with its original engine and transmission. It had 7 years and 100 k+ miles on it when I bought it. I love that go-anywhere vehicle, even though it has developed some obvious quirks and rattles with age. So don't write 4-year old Oppy off yet.
-- HDP Don

Thanks for your correction Don. I thought I understood this from SS interview but I understand now that I was wrong.

Re "old vehicules", Oppy's even a 6WD and I'm gald your "on board" for the BIG drive smile.gif

Posted by: centsworth_II May 17 2008, 03:10 PM

QUOTE (dburt @ May 16 2008, 08:46 PM) *
Climber - "Basically the same stuff" in both craters does not mean there was a lake/sea there, because the sediments are clearly not lake or sea beds. They are cross-bedded, obviously transported sediments...

I think SS was not just referring to the extent of transported sediment deposits. He was also referring to the extent of ground water action upon those deposits.

Posted by: dburt May 19 2008, 01:34 AM

QUOTE (centsworth_II @ May 17 2008, 08:10 AM) *
I think SS was not just referring to the extent of transported sediment deposits. He was also referring to the extent of ground water action upon those deposits.

That remains to be demonstrated, IMHO. Certainly near both craters (Endurance and Victoria, and all across Meridiani Planum, based on orbital images) there is a salty high-albedo layer (efflorescence-like?) near the surface, beneath a lag deposit of "gray" hematitic spherules. This more likely demonstrates a long-lived wind erosion/evaporation/frost leaching/weathering surface rather than a particular hypothetical groundwater table. There are tiny spherules in some layers at both sites (and in a particular layer stratigraphically beneath Home Plate in Gusev Crater) - again, not necessarily owing to groundwater, if the spherules formed via impact explosions and steam condensation (volcanic explosions and steam condensation have been interpreted by SS et al. as forming Gusev spherules). Everything is cross-bedded, mainly at low angles, which feature might be expected via either the wind/water or impact surge hypothesis, but the layers have not been correlated, and nearly identical cross-bedding is exposed in Home Plate in Gusev Crater (albeit interpreted as caused by volcanic steam explosions, with possibly a late wind contribution). Although some festoon-like features have been noted here at UMSF in the middle of Victoria Cliff exposures, none have been officially remarked upon, AFAIK - in fact, the interpretation has been made that that the sections do not correlate, because the Endurance section (with larger spherules and the alleged festoons) must lie buried beneath the section exposed around the rim of Victoria. This section has been interpreted as entirely eolian (wind-deposited), despite its apparent "festoons". Impact excavation (i.e., impact reworking) is interpreted to have dug up the large spherules seen around the rim of Victoria. Of course, we interpret the bedding features too (in fact, all exposures studied by both rovers) as possibly representing impact reworking, on a very much larger scale, with much participation of water, on both sides of Mars, but that is definitely not the official story of SS et al. (at least, not yet smile.gif ).

And so on. Considerable confusion, some inconsistencies, but apparently not (AFAIK) a demonstrated stratigraphic correlation Endurance Crater to Victoria Crater, except in a very general way. Not wishing to repeat old arguments, I'll leave it at that.

-- HDP Don

Posted by: djellison May 19 2008, 02:02 PM

QUOTE (dburt @ May 19 2008, 02:34 AM) *
Not wishing to repeat old arguments, I'll leave it at that.


Please do. We have been through this at significant length before.

Posted by: CosmicRocker May 22 2008, 05:21 AM

QUOTE (dburt @ May 18 2008, 08:34 PM) *
... Although some festoon-like features have been noted here at UMSF in the middle of Victoria Cliff exposures, none have been officially remarked upon, AFAIK - in fact, the interpretation has been made that that the sections do not correlate, because the Endurance section (with larger spherules and the alleged festoons) must lie buried beneath the section exposed around the rim of Victoria. This section has been interpreted as entirely eolian (wind-deposited), despite its apparent "festoons".
Although I was the one who originally suggested the possibility of festoons in Victoria exposures, I am now convinced there are none here. If the MER team thought they saw any, you can be sure they would have made detailed observations of the suspects. Lacking a stratigraphic succession similar to that observed in the Eagle, Endurance, and Erebus sections, it would be difficult to suggest anything more than a very general stratigraphic correlation between the northern and southern observed sections.

There are still the geochemical/diagenetic contacts to consider. There is no reason to assume that they would be parallel to the stratigraphic contacts.

This robotic geologic exploration is fascinating, is it not? I must suspect that a human geologist in the field on Mars would have resolved many of these questions in a day or two. wink.gif

Posted by: dburt May 24 2008, 12:04 AM

QUOTE (CosmicRocker @ May 21 2008, 10:21 PM) *
...This robotic geologic exploration is fascinating, is it not? I must suspect that a human geologist in the field on Mars would have resolved many of these questions in a day or two. wink.gif

Yes but, but, but, 2 human geologists would have resolved them in 2 completely different ways! laugh.gif And what about a committee of 30 reward-seeking "experts" constantly jostling one another at the outcrop? You can convince yourself of whatever you need to, and so can I, and so could Lowell, and so can a committee or a jury or the US Congress, but that doesn't make the result a "resolution" in the scientific sense. Knowing that, I try to convince myself of absolutely nothing (and not to allow anyone else to convince me of anything), and then I explore what is demanded by actual observations, logic, and Occam's razor. That doesn't mean that I'm necessarily right - only that I'm a scientist.

-- HDP Don

Posted by: climber May 24 2008, 01:42 AM

QUOTE (dburt @ May 24 2008, 02:04 AM) *
Yes but, but, but, 2 human geologists would have resolved them in 2 completely different ways! laugh.gif And what about a committee of 30 reward-seeking "experts" constantly jostling one another at the outcrop? You can convince yourself of whatever you need to, and so can I, and so could Lowell, and so can a committee or a jury or the US Congress, but that doesn't make the result a "resolution" in the scientific sense. Knowing that, I try to convince myself of absolutely nothing (and not to allow anyone else to convince me of anything), and then I explore what is demanded by actual observations, logic, and Occam's razor. That doesn't mean that I'm necessarily right - only that I'm a scientist.
-- HDP Don

I love this !

Posted by: nprev May 24 2008, 01:49 AM

Yeah...objectivity, what a concept. Give 'em hell, HDP! biggrin.gif

Posted by: CosmicRocker May 24 2008, 05:39 AM

Yeah, yeah, yeah...but sometimes the two geologists, the committee, the jury, and congress will all come to the same conclusion. Sometimes the conclusion is obvious to the most casual observer. biggrin.gif

Posted by: dburt May 25 2008, 03:27 AM

QUOTE (CosmicRocker @ May 23 2008, 10:39 PM) *
Yeah, yeah, yeah...but sometimes the two geologists, the committee, the jury, and congress will all come to the same conclusion. Sometimes the conclusion is obvious to the most casual observer. biggrin.gif

CR - I don't want to touch that one with a 50 foot pole, unless you provide some concrete examples. Mars examples would be especially helpful, and might even keep us on track. Of course, I'm tempted to say, "like the perfectly obvious conclusion that a dropped boulder on Mars will fall appreciably faster than dropped pebble?" A majority in Congress and on most U.S. juries might agree on that one (not to mention a few geologists I know smile.gif ).

-- HDP Don

Posted by: PaulM May 25 2008, 09:36 AM

QUOTE (dburt @ May 25 2008, 04:27 AM) *
CR - I don't want to touch that one with a 50 foot pole, unless you provide some concrete examples. Mars examples would be especially helpful, and might even keep us on track. Of course, I'm tempted to say, "like the perfectly obvious conclusion that a dropped boulder on Mars will fall appreciably faster than dropped pebble?" A majority in Congress and on most U.S. juries might agree on that one (not to mention a few geologists I know smile.gif ).

-- HDP Don


This link may help convince those geologists:

http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/lunar/apollo_15_feather_drop.html

Posted by: CosmicRocker May 27 2008, 05:05 AM

QUOTE (dburt @ May 24 2008, 10:27 PM) *
... I don't want to touch that one with a 50 foot pole, unless you provide some concrete examples. Mars examples would be especially helpful...
I'm not sure why you wouldn't. I wasn't suggesting anything controversial, political, or otherwise inappropriate for discussion here. I think I can provide some concrete examples, and Mars has some good ones. Your example of a "perfectly obvious conlusion" might fool many of our politicians, but it doesn't work in a debate among scientists familiar with the basic laws of physics. My favorite question along those lines is, "Which weighs more, a pound of feathers, or a pound of lead." rolleyes.gif

Of course any two geologists might disagree on the interpretation of a particular geological environment, but if you ask 100 geologists, most likely a majority of them will settle around one or two (or a few) favored interpretations. I'm not suggesting that the majority is always correct, but the majority often is. When people discuss scientific interpretations, Occam's razor is often quoted. But one version of Occam's razor; the one that I favor, is, "Everything should be explained as simply as possible, but not more simply."

The unmanned/robotic exploration of Mars can offer some examples, because the orbiting spacecrafts, landers, and rovers each have a limited number of analytical instuments. Id est, the information they can send back to us for interpretation is limited, and usually less than ideal. A rock formation on earth can be mapped and sampled in detail, and analyzed by a full array of techniques here on Earth, but that's not an option on Mars, yet. That is why many scientists favor sample-return missions and the manned exploration of Mars.

For example, I understand that the early remote sensing orbiter exploration of Mars detected very similar spectral signatures all across the planet. The simplest version of Occam's razor would dictate that scientists should have concluded that the entire surface of the planet was of the same composition. We now know that is not the case, and that the globally distributed dust coating the entire surface is biasing the remotely sensed data.

The rovers on the ground have helped us study and understand that phenomenon, and have raised other questions. In another example, we have all seen pictures of spherical features in rocks on opposite sides of the planet through the eyes of Opportunity and Spirit. What if the rovers only had simple cameras, and no other analytical tools? As geologists, we know that spherical structures of various origins are common in terrestrial rocks. But now we are on Mars, so the most simplistic interpretation of Occam's razor might require us to assume that spherical structures in thinly layered rocks were created by the same processes across the planet. Fortunately for us, the rovers do have some additional analytical instruments that have demonstrated that the spherical objects have different compositions and microscopic features.

I am only saying that robotic, planetary exploration is more challenging than many would suspect. smile.gif

Posted by: dburt May 28 2008, 12:38 AM

QUOTE (CosmicRocker @ May 26 2008, 10:05 PM) *
...Fortunately for us, the rovers do have some additional analytical instruments that have demonstrated that the spherical objects have different compositions and microscopic features.

I am only saying that robotic, planetary exploration is more challenging than many would suspect. smile.gif


CR - I certainly agree with your final statement! My main point was to disagree with your earlier implication that having one or a bunch of scientist-astronauts jostling each other on the Mars outcrops (with all anxious to show off their erudition in front of the cameras) would necessarily eliminate most scientific controversy. Also, inasmuch as you brought it up, I feel obligated to point out that if different spherules have different compositions or appearances on different sides of Mars, this doesn't necessarily indicate different origins. That is, concretions alone have hugely varying compositions and appearances (e.g., silica, carbonate, oxide, hydroxide) and sizes and shapes (only rarely are they perfectly spherical; most commonly they are nodular and clumped together), and impact-related spherules, etc. likewise have many different (generally small) sizes and compositions (e.g., glassy tektite "splash droplets" vs. spherical glassy condensates vs. spherical accretionary lapilli formed as a result of sticky steam condensation on various particles).

I generally prefer Einstein's formulation of Occam's razor (the simplest hypothesis that accounts for ALL of the observations - equivalent to your "and no simpler"). For that reason about a year ago I asked anyone on this site to suggest Meridiani features NOT explained by the impact hypothesis - given that the extant highly complex watery scheme actually fails to account for many features, including many features of the spherules themselves (e.g., the gray or specular hematite, size limitation, shape limitation, general clumping failure, and distribution in the rock). FWIW, that original request remains unfulfilled. (Note: I respect Doug's eventual decision to cut off the pointlessly repetitive and emotional discussion that followed, and don't wish to restart it now). Thanks for your intelligent input.

-- HDP Don

Posted by: djellison Jun 3 2008, 10:49 PM

QUOTE (dburt @ May 28 2008, 01:38 AM) *
don't wish to restart it now


Not wishing too hard eh? It restarted. Three posts deleted.

Seriously - not again.

Posted by: PaulM Jun 4 2008, 06:42 PM

QUOTE (PaulM @ Aug 16 2007, 01:01 PM) *
Steve Squyres is quoted in the 3rd of June Planetary Society MER update as making the following statement:

"Everyone at JPL, on our science team, and at NASA Headquarters, felt that if we were ever going to do this the time was now," Squyres added. "The kind of stuff we want to do inside this crater really requires a healthy six-wheeled rover, which is what we have now. We're interested in getting in there, doing our business, and getting out while the vehicle still has those six wheels to enable us to climb out. Then we've got a lot more science to do on the plains around the crater," he said, noting that the scientists already have their eyes on the cobbles and other deeply eroded craters like Erebus back out on the plains. "But now is the time to enter Victoria Crater."


On a number of occasions Steve Squyers has expressed an interest in looking at cobbles on the plains after Oppy is finished with Victoria. I guess that his reason is that there is not much variety in the rocks of Meridiani and so the opportunity for Oppy to look at more meteorites and rocks from elsewhere on Mars (such as "Bounce") is attractive.

I think that Oppy's first scientific target after it has left Victoria will be a rock close to Beagle crater described in the following Opportunity Update:

"Sol 875: On this sol, the rover successfully backed away from the ripple that saw 80 percent slip on sol 873. Opportunity used its panoramic camera and miniature thermal emission spectrometer on a distant potential meteorite; those instruments also completed an observation of the sky and ground."

There are nice color and false color photos of this rock in the following post:

http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=2417&view=findpost&p=61844

The following map shows the general area that Oppy was in in SOL 875:

http://www.unmannedspaceflight.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=7283

At that time I saw this extensive area of pavement just to the North West of Victoria's ejecta blanket as possibly of interest. An unwillingness to drive Oppy too far with its arm extended might add to the attractiveness of this area.

Posted by: brellis Sep 3 2008, 04:51 AM

Reading Stu's lovely epitaph for the exploration of Victoria, I started wondering what benefit there might be to retracing most of Oppy's path thus far. There must be plenty of known targets bypassed in favor of proceeding to Victoria. And how cool would it be to get back close to square one several years after landing? How do the tracks from the early sols look after a global dust storm and several martian years of wind?

Is that what mission planners favor at this point?

Posted by: CosmicRocker Sep 3 2008, 06:58 AM

QUOTE (brellis @ Sep 2 2008, 11:51 PM) *
... There must be plenty of known targets bypassed in favor of proceeding to Victoria. ...
No doubt, there were many, many such targets. Retracing most of the path seems unlikely to me, unless they passed by a particularly juicy target early on the trek to Endurance, and then to Victoria.

Posted by: BrianL Sep 3 2008, 12:16 PM

QUOTE (brellis @ Sep 2 2008, 11:51 PM) *
And how cool would it be to get back close to square one several years after landing?


In all honesty, it would make me feel like continued mission funding would have been better diverted to MSL. Does anyone else feel that, cobbles aside, that any major science was bypassed on the way to Victoria? As much as people refer to it as the rush to get there, I found the journey maddeningly methodical from a purely "tourist" perspective. They stopped and did a LOT of science, even if it wasn't always by choice.

They left Victoria because they felt there was nothing to find there that would be of Mars-shaking significance. I have to think that's how they feel about retracing their journey. Just a lot of work for little added science. I just don't see the need to backtrack any further than to squint at a few tempting cobbles.
Any long term study of track alterations can wait for the day when the rover is hobbled and has all the time in the world to sit and study the changes to the world around her. Preferably, somewhere in the vicinity of Ithaca. wink.gif

Posted by: djellison Sep 3 2008, 12:17 PM

QUOTE (BrianL @ Sep 3 2008, 01:16 PM) *
I have to think that's how they feel about retracing their journey.


I've seen mention of a return to Erebus / Terra Nova before. Probably 1/4 of the distance back to Endurance. It looking interesting - but they wanted to get a move on.

Doug

Posted by: Phil Stooke Sep 3 2008, 12:39 PM

Regarding track alteration, they couldn't find a better spot to study it than where they are right now. At this very spot they have tracks from where they first arrived and peeked into Duck Bay, 2 years ago (before the dust storm) and where they came back to enter Duck Bay 1 year ago, plus tracks made in the last few days.

I don't really think there's much to be learned from it anyway, that we haven't seen before. New territory has to be the best bet.

Phil

Posted by: djellison Sep 3 2008, 02:02 PM

Yeah - they had 6 month old tracks as a comparison when they left Endurance.

Posted by: mars loon Sep 7 2008, 11:55 PM

QUOTE (djellison @ Sep 3 2008, 12:17 PM) *
I've seen mention of a return to Erebus / Terra Nova before.


some months back I had occasion to speak to someone on the mission. he said a return to Erebus was one possibility

personally I hope they will stake out new territory for new discoveries.

its seems somewhat surprising they aren't at least driving to Cabo Frio as mentioned during arrival 2 years ago in Oct 2006 before completely leaving Victoria

ken


Posted by: kenny Sep 8 2008, 10:09 PM

I agree about Cabo Frio, and along the way I'd like a look inside Sputnik and its curious internal feature. We saw its rocky rim off to our right as we approached the rim of Victoria, so many moons ago...

Posted by: CosmicRocker Sep 9 2008, 06:00 AM

If cobbles are indeed the focus of the future plans, we have noticed that cobbles exist randomly, everywhere on Mars. There is concern that Opportunity may not be physically capable of exploring its future environments. The easily navigable surroundings of this crater's annulus are just as likely to provide access to surprising rocks as is the treacherous dune/ripple environment in most directions from here.

If I was looking for a new plan, I'd look for places where there were few ripples/dunes, and more bedrock.

Posted by: Phil Stooke Sep 21 2008, 12:08 PM

Due south from Victoria is very feasible. The drifts never get as big as to the north, and after a few km they give way to surfaces nearly as smooth as the area near Endurance, but with more flat outcrops - this from the HiRISE image extending furthest south and east. So, south until the drifts disappear, and then southeast via the Endurance-like crater to the isolated hill on Endeavour's rim is very realistic.

Phil

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